Russian air defense systems are likely to blame for the Christmas Day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines E190 jet in Kazakhstan.
Azerbaijan Airlines E190 Crash Blamed On Russian Air Defense Systems
On December 25, 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) flight J28243, took off from Baku, Azerbaijan (GYD) for Grozny, Russia (GRV) in the nominally autonomous Chechnya region. The 301-mile flight had 67 people onboard (62 passengers, five crewmembers) and was operated by an 11-year-old Embraer E190 (registration code 4K-AZ65).
Poor visibility in Grozny prompted a decision to divert to Makhachkala, Russia (MCX), about 100 miles away. That plan was scuttled after it was confirmed that the airport was closed (due to Ukrainian drone strikes earlier in the day). Instead, the flight diverted to Aktau, Kazakhstan (SCO), nearly 300 miles away and across the Capsian Sea.
But as the plane attempted to land in Aktau, it crashed near the runway, bursting into flames. Videos show the aircraft steeply descending and banking toward the right. 29 souls survived, 38 perished.
Shortly after the crash, Rosaviatsia, the Russian aviation authority, blamed the deadly incident on bird strikes. However, video that has emerged of the aircraft fuselage suggests shrapnel damage. Furthermore, survivors onboard reported hearing an “explosion” before pilots lost control of the aircraft. This strongly suggests the aircraft was hit with a Russian anti-missile or other air defense system.
I heard some chump try to blame this on Ukraine earlier, so let’s address that now. Why is Ukraine striking Russia with drones? Because it was attacked by Russia first. Because its eastern region is currently occupied by Russians, as is Crimea. Don’t blame Ukraine for trying to defend itself against a nation that believes it does not have a right to exist.
And this is also exactly why you don’t try to shoot down or point lasers toward “drones” over New Jersey because sometimes what you think is a drone, is not actually a drone. I doubt Russia deliberately targeted a civilian jetliner of a peaceful neighbor in the region…but fear and paranoia stemming from its war of aggression against Ukraine create very unsavory side effects.
And of course, most importantly, my prayers go out to the friends and families of the 38 lives lost in this crash (with some survivors still in very serious condition).
Two days later, the fact pattern is still developing, but I find it ironic that Russia is demanding that no conclusions be made yet when its aviation authority came out within hours blaming the incident on a bird strike. Sometimes the chickens come home to roost…
Flight #J28243 that crashed near Aktau Airport in Kazakhstan is an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer ERJ-190 with registration 4K-AZ65.#J28243 took off from Baku at 03:55 UTC time and was flying to Grozny. The aircraft was exposed to strong GPS jamming which made the aircraft… pic.twitter.com/rM1Q0jmMPt
— Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) December 25, 2024
That crew did an amazing job under the circumstances. The investigation is just getting underway, but one thing I'm very curious about here is the role of fly-by-wire in maintaining control. That's a lot of damage to the tail and the E190 was Embraer's first with a FBW elevator.
— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) December 26, 2024
The Russian Threat
As a friend commented to me yesterday, a poorly-trained Russian military with shoddy systems and idiots at the helm have now downed two commercial aircraft in a few years (not to mention KAL 007 in 1983). Anyone who flies on an airline that goes over Russian airspace is, at this point, taking huge risks.
I concur that is is just a matter of time before one of these aircraft flying over Russia is forced to divert with American, British or EU citizens on board. Russia will then have a few more people they can detain for questioning and fake trials to later use for prisoner swaps…
What a disaster to themselves and to the world Russia has become.
Does this all look familiar?
I was offline for the holiday today, but early footage from the crash scene this morning immediately reminded me of the MH17 damage pattern from 2014. This photo was taken by @WSJ in Petropavlivka, in eastern Ukraine after the Malaysian 777-200 was shot down. https://t.co/WNMiXfMWtq pic.twitter.com/ktoBSUtFQ1
— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) December 26, 2024
CONCLUSION
A Russian air defense system is the most likely explanation for the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines E190 jet in Kazakhstan on Wednesday. While Russia is quick to deny this and blame bird strikes, earlier Ukrainian drone activity in the area likely prompted the accidental downing of this jet, killing 38 onboard.
Terrorist nation doing terrorist nation things.
All countries with a history of communism act stupid . Stupidity and communism go hand-in-hand . Scratch a communist and find a moron .
What is your excuse for Iran airline flight 655?
What about it? It was a direct result of Iranian actions. Tragic, certainly, but hardly comparable to what russian fascists are doing.
@Alert – remember that most of the countries had communism imposed from the outside, by the most diabolical regime to ever have existed (the USSR) except maybe for Mao’s China and Pol Pot’s Cambodia (find the common denominator…). Hard to blame them for being the way they are after being enslaved for half a century.
@Grzegorz … +1 . My thoughts were with the millions of intelligent ones who spoke out and were murdered by the Chinese and Russian communists . Must have affected the gene pool , no ?
The common denominator was “murder” of anyone who asked : “Hey , does this make sense?”
@Grzegorz … Likewise affected was Cambodia , Vietnam , and North Korea . Mental basket cases all .
Russia had a long history of doing stupid and violent things well before communism came around. I mean the country effectively had 6x as many slaves as the U.S. did on the nineteenth century,
How do you explain what happened to the USS Liberty then?
Azerbaijan is not a Russian ally, actually close to the opposite. Russia supported Armenia when Azerbaijan has launched military operations against it and Azerbaijan has acted as a relief source of Caspian natural gas to Europe since the Russian embargos, which undermined the entire Russian plan to starve Europe of gas and force them to give in to the annexation of Ukraine.
Good information .
Absolutely correct. While I totally agree with Matthew on the comments regarding Russia/Ukraine, his statement regarding Azerbaijan is not correct. Let’s just say that the Azeris and Russians are on speaking terms but they’re not really friends anymore.
Still, their jetliner wouldn’t have been shot down on purpose. That’s just Russian incompetence and stupidity. Much the same as the idea that they should invade Ukraine.
@AngryFlier … +1 . Russian incompetence stupidity equals better gene pool . An important point about competitive capitalism is the creation of a clever competitive gene pool .
In my mind there is no question at all the was NOT a bird strike.
I’ve seen and lived through plenty of bird strikes in my career and none of them have produced a damage pattern remotely like what we see here.
The phugoid oscillations we see are classic for an aircraft that has a total loss of hydraulic power and is being controlled by engine thrust and possibly stabilizer trim alone. I’ve practiced landing a CRJ in the sim with no hydraulics and it’s incredibly tricky to get right. It took us several attempts before we managed to get even close to a survivable landing. In my view the pilots did an incredible job getting as close as they did to a successful landing.
This is a shoot-down of an airliner pure and simple.
Damn Sparrows! Must have been migrating.
It is North Korean Air Defense weaponry fired by Iranians that is 100% responsible for this crash. Congress should have an emergency session and respond with force now !!
I blame the failed Comedian running that place at “war” with Russia for their drone attacks. Along with the senile F##k we still call President for sending them money. It’s almost over and they will have to surrender or defend themselves without our tax dollars.
Can’t wait to see the Comedian get what he has coming like Saddam Hussein!
Must be a pretty slow day over at GRU headquarters for you to be commenting this pariah state propagandist nonsense on a blog like this.
Incredibly sad pariah state. I can’t believe their citizens want to kill their neighbors like this yet I can’t believe Putin and the government do what they do with the support of, ostensibly, a great many citizens.
I would applaud a CIA/NSA operation that would take him out….
Sad man with a small penis…..