Outgoing Emirates President Sir Tim Clark is not worried about business travel bouncing back. In fact, he believes that there will be more opportunity and desire for business travel than ever before in the years ahead. Is he on to something or just dreaming?
Emirates President: Business Travel Will Grow
Asked about the future of business travel on CNN, Clark bristled at the suggestion that a new normal of 25-30% lower would be a best-case scenario:
“No, I would say the converse. What has happened as a result of being locked down, as a result of having to engage in (online communication) networks, whether it be Zoom or (Microsoft) Teams, I saw it in the mid ’90s, when we digitized the global economy and all these tools came to market. The digital world ruled, the age of information came along, and everybody said, ‘You know what’s going to happen? We’re not really going to travel anymore.’
“The converse happened. Between 1995, and 2015 to 2018, the demand for business travel grew exponentially. The more they (people) interacted, the more they traveled. As we get back to normal, as the economy is strengthened, as cash starts flowing back into the businesses that have been affected, we’ll start to see business travel bounce back, and we’ll see it grow. It will not slow down.”
That’s a very optimistic take. While I certainly hope Clark is correct and personally plan all sorts of travel when borders re-open, our corporate clients at Award Expert paint another picture. Most tell me that business travel is still strictly banned and there are absolutely no plans to change that in 2021. There are exceptions…like Apple…but the “road warrior” has been grounded and that doesn’t look like it will change.
Surveys suggest business travel will return for sales and securing clients, but customer support and research trips may never recover thanks to improving technology. Perhaps, if anything, this year has taught us the smartest bet is not to bet on anything.
CONCLUSION
There’s a part of me that understands humans are creatures which require personal interaction. I’m always reminded of this tremendous ad from United Airlines:
But even though business travel will recover, I don’t see it eclipsing 2019 levels for many years to come.
(H/T: View from the Wing)
I agree, it’s a great ad. As to whether or not Tim Clark’s prediction is correct: of course, only time can tell. I think it will return, but slowly. In my industry, all trade shows are effectively canceled at least until Fall 2021. That sort of travel will be slow to return, but purposeful trips to specific customers will come back.
I completely agree and have been saying as much to friends and family since this started. There are several factors at work here…
1. Zoom/Teams Fatigue. People are just sick of being on screen all day after staring at screens all day. Plus, there are so many nuances of in-person meetings that are lost on video, especially when it comes to negotiations or sales calls or anything that requires non-verbal cues and immediate audience feedback. I see this daily in my own little slice of the world.
2. Technical Meetings. In my line of work in IT, there are way too many things that simply can’t be done over a videoconference. If I or my techs need to be in front of a physical server rack to hand-hold a customer through a process (despite numerous instruction manuals/videos, one-on-one trainings, etc.) then those will resume. And there’s going to be a backlog of customers who want/need that in-person hand-holding once travel resumes. To wit, my company never actually banned travel to assist customers; we implemented a “as necessary and approved by VP/Director” rule. We know/knew we could never completely shut-off travel to customer sites if it was requested.
3. Site Visits/Inspections. Manufacturing companies with factories all over the globe are going to resume normal operations, if not more so as production ramps up in the near term post-vaccine to make up for lost time. And corporations with global locations – across multiple time zones – will continue to find it difficult to sync over video calls and will revert to pre-COVID practices of sending a team for a week or so on-site.
People have short memories about things like this, for better or worse (mostly worse) – and some people still think it’s a hoax. Once a vaccine is widely available and a working majority of people have received it, COVID will probably become a footnote in history books, much like the Spanish Flu which nobody thought about until recently because of obvious parallels. Non-business travelers will be clamoring to get away after months of quasi-house arrest. Businesses will temporarily enjoy the money saved by not having employees travel for a year or so, but will quickly remember the hard and soft benefits of having “boots on the ground” to represent their interests and will be sending folks hither and thither in short time.
Agree, completely. Zoom/Teams will continue to be useful for routine group communications like weekly team meetings and status updates, but for anything important/complex it is hardly a viable replacement.
Definitely agree. Imagine business travel will grow massively in the years ahead.
Zoom is awful for connecting with anyone meaningfully.
I own a business in the US and shareholder in a business in Europe, can’t wait to get the people back in front of customers.
Tend to agree overall. Nice to hear Rhapsody in Blue again. And (I think) that’s Gene Hackman doing the voiceover. An effective ad, for sure.
Companies are talking a good game right now about reducing travel and relying more heavily on virtual tools, but believe me, the first time they lose a contract because a competitor showed up in person and they didn’t, that’ll be the end of the “virtual first” approach.
The Zoom/Teams fatigue thing is VERY REAL, too. After nine months of this, employees are absolutely exhausted being on camera all day and trying to manage meetings without the benefit of in-person collaboration.
I’m not sure we’ll get back to 2019 levels of business travel anytime soon, but it’s far from dead.
Agree with the comments. We are planning our corporate travel for as soon as we’re allowed to travel again. If anything, working virtually has taught us how important those face to face interactions are.
There will of course be some travel that doesn’t come back, but I think the majority will come back rather quickly as people will be itching to travel as soon as this is all over.
Regarding the future, I think what will be affected the most will be office space – companies will learn that remote work is acceptable nearly 100% of the time for many positions that don’t require face to face interaction or in-person meetings.
Several years ago the Comptroller of my previous employer stood up at all hands and announced that the company spent $20M on travel in the previous year. This was intended to shock – how could we spend that much? Cuts need to be made! Well, the company earned $6B in revenue that year, so our travel spend was 0.33% of revenue. If we cut travel to 0 and if doing so had no effect on the bottom line, it would have had a de minimus impact on the company’s profitability. No cuts were made. The lesson I took from this was that cuts to business travel are all about optics – to make it look like you’re doing something to cut costs, but, in reality, the cost is just white noise.
Echoing some previous statements, we will also be traveling for business starting in March of 2021, pandemic allowing. (I’m in the sports business, so if Baseball season starts as planned, I’ll be jumping around like usual).
We’re all tired of ZOOM and can’t wait to get on the road, even if some daily 9-5 work might migrate to remote for those who want it.