A new study about net US migration states there will be fewer people coming into the US than those leaving for the first time in almost 100 years. But there’s more to the story.
A Wall Street Journal investigation published this week set the internet ablaze with a headline that practically writes itself: Americans are leaving the country in record numbers. The piece found that at least 180,000 Americans relocated abroad in 2025, with record passport applications in the UK and Ireland, surging American communities in Portugal and Mexico, and a 48% jump in citizenship renunciation requests. The narrative quickly took on a life of its own, spawning breathless coverage across dozens of outlets and earning the phenomenon a catchy nickname: the “Donald Dash.”
It makes for a compelling story. It also deserves a closer look, because the data underneath the headline tells a much more complex and, frankly, less dramatic story than the one making the rounds.
Yes, Net Migration Likely Went Negative
Let’s start with what appears to be true. The Brookings Institution estimates that US net migration in 2025 fell somewhere between -10,000 and -295,000, with a central estimate around -150,000. If accurate, that would be the first time net migration has gone negative since 1935. The Census Bureau separately reported that net international migration dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million in the period from July 2024 through June 2025, a period that straddles two very different policy environments.
These actual reported figures from credible institutions paint a picture of a country that, for the first time in decades, saw more people leave than arrive. This isn’t partisan, it’s statistics.
But Who Is Actually Leaving?
Here is where the “Americans are fleeing” narrative starts to wobble. The overwhelming driver of negative net migration is not American citizens packing up for Lisbon. It is a dramatic reduction in immigration inflows combined with an increase in deportations from the last four years (though not 2008-2016) and historically high voluntary departures by non-citizens.
Total immigration into the US fell to roughly 2.6 to 2.7 million in 2025, down from a peak of nearly 6 million in 2023, according to Brookings. On the outflow side, the Department of Homeland Security reported 675,000 deportations and an estimated 2.2 million voluntary departures by undocumented immigrants since January 2025. Applying the more conservative Brookings estimates of roughly 310,000 deportations and 210,000 to 405,000 enforcement-driven voluntary departures, the math is clear: the migration equation is being driven almost entirely by immigration policy changes, not by a sudden exodus of American citizens.
Meanwhile, illegal border crossings have fallen off a cliff. Customs and Border Protection reported that FY2025 southwest border apprehensions hit 237,538, the lowest level since 1970. By December 2025, monthly apprehensions had dropped to 6,478, a 96% decline from the prior administration’s monthly average. Whatever your politics, the enforcement numbers are staggering.
The 180,000 Number Needs Context
Now, back to the Americans. The Wall Street Journal’s figure of 180,000 Americans who moved abroad in 2025 comes from a partial analysis of just 15 countries. That sounds significant until you remember that the US has a population of roughly 340 million people. For context, that’s 0.05% of the population. For additional context, the State Department estimated that somewhere between 4 and 9 million Americans were already living abroad before any of this started. The idea that this represents some unprecedented wave of citizen flight does not hold up against the scale of the country.
The headline was “Americans Are Leaving The US In Record Numbers” and that may be factually correct but that’s because Americans rarely move abroad. Some of the raw numbers highlight just how limited the “Donald Dash” is:
“Last year, more Americans moved to Germany than Germans moved to America. The same was true in Ireland, which welcomed 10,000 people from the U.S. in 2025, about double those who came in 2024.”
I’m sorry, 10,000? Let’s move on.
“Americans are applying for British citizenship at the highest rate since records began in 2004”
Wow! My wife and I emigrated to the UK for work twice for about three total years, we loved our time and return to Manchester every year (if we can.) Record numbers, what’s that look like?
“some 6,600 in the year to March 2025.”
What about Portugal? That’s been really popular in the last few years, especially during COVID where Americans dashed to the beautiful Iberian coastal country. American expat populations in Portugal grew 36% in 2024 alone. In 2025, it actually slowed to a 25% increase… of about 5,000 Americans.
Are some Americans genuinely relocating for cost of living, remote work flexibility, or political frustration? Absolutely, and their reasons are valid. The growth of remote work has made it easier than ever to earn a US salary while living in a country where rent is a fraction of what it costs in Austin or Brooklyn. Record numbers of students are enrolling at European universities where tuition is more affordable. Retirees are finding that their Social Security checks stretch further in Mexico or Thailand. These are rational economic decisions, and the people making them are not wrong. Chiang Mai has been overrun with global remote workers due to its low cost of living, great connectivity, and beautiful locale.
But calling it a mass exodus or drawing a straight line to any single political cause flattens a story that is mostly about global mobility becoming easier for a relatively small number of people who were already inclined to live abroad. It also ignores the prior Administration which only matters if the reason is cited as the “Donald Dash.” For example, in 2019, about 5,000 Americans lived in Portugal, but the same remained during 2020. It jumped 400% during the Biden years, before falling some when Trump returned to office.
Ireland was the clearest support for the Journal’s case which rose consistently (with the exception of 2018) by about 60% from 2015 to 2019, but in 2025 (the year Trump returned to the White House) it shot up double from about 5,000 to 10,000 Americans moving to Ireland.
The Renunciation Spike Is Real But Tiny
One of the more alarming data points in the coverage is the rise in citizenship renunciation requests, which jumped 48% in 2024 and likely continued climbing in 2025. The government reportedly has a months-long backlog. That does sound dramatic until you look at the actual numbers. In a typical recent year, roughly 5,000 to 6,000 Americans renounce citizenship. Even a 48% increase puts you somewhere in the neighborhood of 8,000 to 9,000 people in a country of 340 million. Many of those renunciations are driven by tax compliance burdens for dual citizens living abroad, not by people dramatically tearing up their passports at the border.
What The Data Actually Shows
If you zoom out and look at the full picture, the story of negative net migration in 2025 is overwhelmingly a story about immigration enforcement. Border crossings dropped 95% or more from the prior administration’s averages. Humanitarian admissions fell from over 1.4 million in 2024 to roughly 67,000 to 70,000. Hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants were deported or left voluntarily.
International student enrollment fell 17% which likely supports the article’s sentiment but does not factor in reasoning which may have also been cost of living which, while rising for Americans, is at a staggering level comparatively globally even to wealthy western Europe. The cost of living for a single person in the United States is 47% higher than in Germany, and while higher earnings in the United States still puts the US as the better place to live and work – students may not have the ability to work while they are in the US, absorbing higher costs without earnings to offset those costs.
A relatively small number of American citizens (roughly 180,000 confirmed across 15 countries, with the true number likely somewhat higher) chose to move abroad for a mix of economic, lifestyle, and yes, political reasons. Those two trends combined to produce what Brookings calls negative net migration. But conflating the two into a single narrative of “Americans are fleeing” misrepresents what is actually happening by a wide margin.
Nobody should dismiss the real concerns of people who feel compelled to leave. Cost of living is brutal in many US cities. Healthcare costs remain a genuine burden. The political environment is polarized in ways that affect daily life. These are legitimate pressures. But the data simply does not support the conclusion that Americans are abandoning the country en masse. The vast majority of the migration shift is happening on the immigration side of the ledger, driven by policy choices that have nothing to do with whether your neighbor is shopping for apartments in Dublin. In my own case, I left in 2008 for England and came back from Thailand in 2012 – none of which were down to factors of an election, (President Obama’s first term), or economic pressure, or persecution. I had a job opportunity and wanted to take it. If I had the opportunity at the time to apply for residency or a British passport, I would have but I wasn’t fleeing America. How many of the 6,600 Americans that moved to the UK included in the 2025 numbers were like me?
The numbers tell an important story, and there is absolutely fire from the smoke signals we see in the data. But there are so many qualifiers needed, and such a lack of commentary from those who emigrated that it questions the integrity of a storied paper.
What do you think?
I’m actively working towards my option on a dual citizenship. The “Land Of The Free” now has the FCC threatening major networks for showing unflattering stories about the government. That’s something you’d expect from El Salvador, not what was the leader of the free world.
Hope no one was planning on getting Italian citizenship thanks to their grandparents… recently, Italy seems to want to cut that opening there for distant relatives…
That process was taking 10 years. ( Italy ) and 300 USD per document required. I see no immediate problem cancelling this, I certainly feel for those unable to that would have been proud to continue their heritage.
very good article, Kyle.
and while there MIGHT be lower costs in other countries, people do not quickly gain the ability to participate in the democratic process so you are essentially giving up trying to fix your home country while gaining nothing comparable in your new country.
and let’s also consider that the people that really do succeed at leaving are the most economically well-off. the vast majority of people simply do not have the ability to do that since few countries really want a surge of lower income people that do not have the means to support themselves.
the real story is the border and the fact that the US – with two of the longest borders in the world – has achieved border control comparable to what islands achieve is a powerful less for other countries. and, as much as some want to think the former policies will return, open borders was never popular with voters and was a key reason for a change in party control and thus not likelly to be revisited.
Like most sensational stories today, much of the general public only cares about the headline. And form their opinions from it without looking at the entire story like you did.
Thank you for digging deep and showing the facts of the matter, which basically are our President has shut down the open border the previous guy allowed open.
Unfortunately if a liberal wins in 28 the faucet will opened up again in the quest for future Democratic voters and cheap labor that some in both parties love.
Oh the irony, so little labor now that we need to…bring in migrants.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/us/politics/farm-labor-trump-migrant-workers-h2a.html
Gotta love the slavery refrain from liberals – “But who will pick the crops?”
The problem is that we pay people not to work. Take away the welfare, food stamps, subsidized housing, free healthcare, and everything else, tons of folks will be looking for work.
If that’s true, why is Germany’s labor force participation so much higher than America’s?
Agree, but the reality is that America is a human Ponzi scheme. Lack of affordable and quality education results in a population that believes what MAGA/GOP keep telling them: that it doesn’t matter if you are uneducated or even trained at a skill. That all wealth will “trickle down” to everyone, regardless. One generation after another keeps believing this is how it works. One generation after another is lost to any opportunity with no motivation. That’s the difference in Germany and other places. They value and offer education to everyone, with a heavy focus on learning trades. They don’t promise trickle down but rather encourage skills.
Add to this the scare tactic that it’s immigrants taking these jobs from “Americans” and you have a perfect recipe for the ultimate Ponzi scheme we are witnessing. Promise, pocket, give nothing, and blame others.
I generally don’t like your articles and usually skip coming here on Sundays but this was a great analysis. I read this one because it applies to me as I left the USA last year for good. Thanks for the work you put into this.
As long as you don’t take your problems with you, migrating to a country that offers more hope and opportunity for you and your family is always appealing.
I work for a state university, and we are cutting masses of jobs, as are many other universities, due to losing masses of funding due to the loss of international students–legally attending our schools. There are layers to these stories that are affecting many people in terrible ways–and I mean people like the janitors who support their families, the admin assistants who have been working decades serving people and working hard because despite making $25-35K a year, they have good benefits and retirement. And now… now they don’t. So frankly, since you insist on ALWAYS asking “what do you think?” in bolded italics, I will tell you that I think this was more fodder for your economic travel analysis than understanding the devastation the immigration and migration situation is having on regular old people whose lives have been uprooted.
I think the number of Americans who have been applying for documentation of foreign citizenships from countries that follow jus sanginis has, indeed, shot up. The number actually leaving is, no doubt, much lower.