During my ill-advised mileage run to Kuala Lumpur, I had a chance to see the effect of the Coronavirus on airlines and here are my observations.
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The Evolving Situation
I was personally convinced that concerns about Coronavirus were mostly hype. The disease appears to spare younger patients, and statistically, it seemed on par with Influenza though fatality rates were lower and contagion was higher.
When I left early in the week on a domestic roundtrip to Houston, the world was pretty much as we left it. However, by Wednesday the Houston rodeo, which had never cancelled or closed early in 80 years, shut down weeks early. That same evening the NBA season was postponed while a game was in progress. By Thursday, the several basketball tournaments were off before the NCAA tournament, then all NCAA events were cancelled.
My hubris at the beginning of the week melted and by Friday night, I was on the phone with ANA looking for waivers to cancel my reservation. Some cards offer trip insurance but I wasn’t confident the one I used would for this situation.
Response Is Not Good
Houston may have adjusted their rollout but at the time of departure, people were careful but there was no coordinated effort by the airport. Pittsburgh had a single hand sanitizer station in the widely traversed passenger areas. Newark had just one, following TSA at terminal C, I was actively looking and found no others between C87 and C139.
It’s possible that there is a more coordinated effort, but I am actively looking for hand sanitizing stations and struggled. I wasn’t alone. A small line formed near the C-terminal dispenser before and after me at Newark. If we can’t find them then either they aren’t there or aren’t prominently marked.
At TSA I became concerned regarding the bins as well which have often been regarded as petri dishes. There were no additional measures taken to sanitize the trays between passengers and I would be surprised if they had been cleaned in any way in quite some time.
TSA staff were diligent in their inspection of my electronics, but a message about the transmission of a disease that’s referred to as a “pandemic” had not made an impression on any of the agents I encountered.
Airlines Need To Get Serious
All carriers have made cuts, some more than others. However, none that I have seen have gone far enough. My wife’s flight was about half full on Friday, mine had 69 of 370 seats sold to Narita, from Tokyo Narita to Kuala Lumpur, ANA sold just 60 of 250.
There are only two outcomes that I can see depending on what happens with attempts at containment.
First, containment is successful, there are no new cases from today onward and the world starts turning again. Despite that rosy outlook, a lot of the damage is already done. Conventions, events, and meetings are postponed and will take a long time to get reorganized. It’s also going to take some effort to get consumers with leisure trips to want to go back out in the world until it can be absolutely certain that the coast is clear.
Second, a pandemic is truly underway, tens of millions are infected and recovery for millions around the world never occurs, devastation both from a health standpoint and the economics of the world are set back for years.
In either situation, (it’s all better tomorrow, or it’s a true pandemic with lasting infection) the airlines will still have dramatically lower yield factors for the foreseeable future. There is no way for this situation to resolve itself in the coming weeks back to what was, ultimately, peak travel.
It’s not just lots of empty seats today, it’s the doom and gloom of the staff who have seen this all before, that makes the response seem slower. Multiple daily flights remain from Pittsburgh to Newark and Pittsburgh to Houston. They are going out half full (or empty depending on your perspective) and for the sake of the future of United, need to be reduced to one or two daily flights on idle equipment.
Walking past the endless gates of ANA widebodies at Tokyo Narita with virtually no passengers in the waiting area was a dramatic sight, the same was true at the other airports as well.
They need to make deep cuts necessary in staff, schedule and facilities now to avoid absolute doom later.
Humility
And now for a moment of humility. Sometimes I get caught up in trying to filter out the noise and I miss the bigger issue. I hadn’t considered my ability to contract the disease and spread it to others unwittingly putting them in jeopardy. I do think that the media has dramatized this beyond the real level of due concern (Dr. Drew agrees) which has had a lasting effect on businesses and soon on employees all over the world.
I was so quick to dismiss the screaming talking heads, that I hadn’t considered that the situation could actually be serious. I recognize my lack of humility and am reminded of what’s really important – two-ply rolls of Charmin.
Conclusion
Flying this last week has been a significant adjustment. Neither airlines nor airports are acting significantly enough and most of it is entirely within their control. Airlines, in particular, need to make drastic and immediate cuts to protect themselves and their solvency. It’s not just to reduce losses for investors, it’s to keep employees in their role for the long term (even if sabbaticals are necessary now) and reduce strain on the government which will be stretched thin as a result. And… I was overly ambitious and didn’t respect the effect Coronavirus may have on travelers other than myself.
What do you think? Are airlines and airports responding quickly enough? What changes would you make? Is there any harm in making large cuts and then reversing course if the storm passes quicker than expected?
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Is it too soon to joke that anybody who wants an upgrade will probably get it cleared? haha 😐
hahahahaha. Well, if the publicity-hungry television doctor who said Hilary Clinton had a brain injury says it’s not that serious, then everything must be fine.
Haha. This tine is for Republicans to shine.
They always wanted tax cuts so they can give to charity in time of need. Haha guess how much the blonde chimpanzee will give to charity. Haha.
Republicans are a$$holes. Haaaa
I think it’s going to be way worse in the next couple of weeks, even with aggressive measures taken by the government. The question is how long all of this will last. I have a trip to South Africa and Namibia booked for the second half of May and one to the US for early July. I would really love to take those trips but if things don’t clear up, I will have to cancel.
Take it from an epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist dealing with all of this. Dr Drew, Charles Barkley, and the others, are all being idiots.
Please do not panic. But please do take this seriously. In six months if you feel that you were over-cautious, that will mean we have been successful.
Thank you for being humble enough to admit your mistake. It took us all a while to understand, don’t feel bad. Just do the right thing now onwards please.
But what is the right thing?
We have a system of “everyone is on their own”. Winner takes all. Is it just for the financial system? No one has clarified this.
If i am in no danger of dying from this pathogen should i care if i pass it on to others that may die? That makes no sense.
We don’t hold people that are extremely successful financially but don’t care about giving back to society to such high standards. So why hold people to high standards medically. So why should an infected individual self isolate to care about others. Why should they be expected to “give back”.
Very selfish expectation.
You are one more indication as to the idiocy of some people in this country. At least Matthew has some empathy and understanding of what is at stake. Besides the complete gibberish of your post you do succeed in coming across as someone who only discovers his stupidity later and then laughs about it. Grave dancing.
Want to know what people in your generation are thinking? This is a quote from a comment today on OMAAT from another in your age segment (I assume) and regarding the long lines at immigration yesterday, “The virus surely spread among the crowds at customs yesterday. Will clearing some boomer liabilities off the books be so bad?”
He goes by the name of CargoCult. Starting to think it might be you.
I have been reading this blog for years, and have never felt insulted or betrayed as a reader — until now.
“And now for a moment of humility. Sometimes I get caught up in trying to filter out the noise and I miss the bigger issue. I hadn’t considered my ability to contract the disease and spread it to others unwittingly putting them in jeopardy.”
FILTER OUT THE NOISE? If you do not know how to critically assess news sources and to assess the validity of information coming from an endless array of scientists and health experts, you have no credibility writing on anything we are supposed to take seriously. You hadn’t considered that you could unwittingly put others in jeopardy? This is not rationale of a sensible, mature adult.
Matthew, if you are reading this — this article is a disgrace to your fine platform.
I apologize that my apology was insufficient.
Is anyone still doing “status runs” at the moment? There’s a human part of me that finds that grossly selfish and irresponsible.
See “Humility” section. I will say in my lone defense that the difference between even just this weekend has been stark. It was booked at the beginning before the runs on grocery stores, the closure of almost all flights to Europe, and the cancellation of major gatherings like sporting events and conferences. It feels like a different world now.
No, there was no difference. You just chose to see what you wanted to see and that was what Trump was telling you. You ignored every scientist and most of your readers warning you that this was callous at best or grossly negligent to you and your family at worst.
Returning and apologizing doesn’t make it ok. I personally think Matthew should remove you from the blog. Or you should remove yourself. You don’t deserve a voice.
But I will miss you, Stuart.
Have to agree with Stuart. When I mentioned on your last post that doing this was selfish you tried to tell me I was calling you a murderer. You were refusing to listen to the facts. All that changed is that you finally did get scared in the end. This post doesn’t really show that you’ve learned that.
From your comment last week, “ That’s someone’s grandma, grandpa, husband, wife, child with chronic illness, etc. that you might be killing.” One who kills is a… what again? If you’re walking it back, ok, no problem – it’s a heated issue and I admitted I shouldn’t have traveled. But if you’re not then you’re still calling me a murderer for being in an airport.
This thing really hit me today….I work at a Pittsburgh hotel and most of us here have been laid off for two months, effective next Monday. I’m still numb.
I’m really sorry to hear that. There appears to be some assistance programs rolling out for those affected, it’s the one time I can recall where the government has worked together in a decade maybe. Some companies are also offering help in the form of payment delays. American Express and Apple credit cards are not assessing late fees nor requiring payment of your affected from what I understand (contact them directly to confirm.)
Separately, only the admins can see your email address and I won’t disclose it here, but that has to be one of the most coveted in Pittsburgh. Nice work.
I’m not walking anything back. I and many others tried to explain to you why this was selfish and foolish, you refused to listen. You’re putting the murderer label on, I am not. Your actions could lead to someone being infected who could die. That’s negligent but not murder…
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/malaysia-bars-citizens-overseas-foreigners-entering-covid19-12543454
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/malaysia-coronavirus-covid-19-cases-mosques-close-12543024
Love it _ it’s so drama!
Wake up & smell the hand sanitizer, dude!
Airlines are getting serious _ it was you who wasn’t ..
How’s that humble pie tasting right now?
LOL …
I hope for your family, especially your daughter’s health, that you turned right round @ KLIA & flew back to the US.
Where did your wife travel to?
Is your kid HOme alone?
It’s a bit like crow, which is really just like chicken so not that bad. Tune in next week for my tense departure from KL.
DEBIT get a life..your comments are so left wing and brainwashed….
Glad that you admitted this was a mistake (although there are mistakes and there are boneheaded, what-the-heck-were-you-thinking mistakes, this is definitely the latter). But you really do need to edit this sentence which is still at the top: “The disease appears to spare younger patients, and statistically, it seemed on par with Influenza though fatality rates were lower and contagion was higher.” I don’t know where you were getting your statistics (Fox News?), but fatality rates were always far higher for COVID-19 than for influenza. Or maybe that’s what you meant and it’s just very poorly worded. In either case this piece of misinformation should not still be up on this blog.