Kyle’s excellent piece on the current melancholic nature of travel prompted a nod of agreement, but also a spark of optimism. Travel will come back. It will come roaring back. Because we love to travel. We are human beings.
The Roaring 20s Of Travel
We can look at the pandemic in two ways right now. On the one hand, we can see that cases are still rising, people are still rising, a lack of vaccinations in the developing world will prolong it, and countries will be very conservative in re-opening borders.
But on the other hand, let’s count up the progress that has been made. Each day we understand the virus better than ever before. Each day hundreds of thousands, if not millions, are being vaccinated. Case numbers are dropping even ahead of the northern hemisphere spring, when they are expected to drop even further.
And people want to travel. People are anxious to travel. We’ve had more business at Award Expert this week than we have had in several months. People are starting to plan trips and want to book summer and fall travel now. What this demonstrates is a certain level of comfort that we have not seen since the pandemic shut down the world last March.
We are also seeing a thaw in border lockdowns, with Iceland indicating it will let in travelers who have been vaccinated. I expect other nations will follow. I expect some sort of electronic vaccine passport that will make it easier to travel in the second half of the year.
Testing is getting better. It is being offered in more places and companies like Hyatt are thinking outside the box by realizing that if it cavers testing, travelers will come. I expect we will see rapid testing available at most major airports by the end of the year, which will further make travel easier.
We’re still learning so much about COVID-19. The news is not all great: it seems the Oxford vaccine is not nearly as effective against the South African variant as hoped. We must face the fact that we may never defeat the virus but be forced to coexist with it, as we do influenza. We may need a virus shot each year just like a flu shot.
But whether or not that ultimately is the case, we will go back to our lives. We will start traveling again. We will start gathering together again. Because humans are meant to gather. They are meant to travel. And the virus will not stop us.
So take heart today. Cheer up. Travel will come roaring back. I think it will happen this year. Maybe it will be next year. Maybe it won’t be like 2019. But it will be great. I’m looking forward to it.
Matthew this made my day. I’m not sure I share the optimism but it’s great to read nonetheless.
You’re dreaming. This year is a complete write-off when it comes to travel. It could start coming back in 2022, but it won’t be anything like what it was.
Mitch — Just get Covid and then travel freely like Matt did in 2020, and then get vaccinated so you can travel in 2021.
Leave your basement. There is life out there.
I made 4 leisure trips to Europe during the pandemic, and 2 to the Caribbean, but this year I’m only flying in the US. My last trip was to Sweden in December and I had to travel by myself to meet up with my family. Everything went fine, but it was super-stressful because I wasn’t sure I’d be allowed into the EU as a UK passport holder with all the last-minute restrictions they were adding due to the new UK strain. Now with Brexit, mandatory testing returning to the US, and even mandatory testing at some transit points, it’s just too many hoops to jump through. I’m not doing any more international travel. All these restrictions aren’t going away this year, and frankly, they will probably add even more.
That said, I’m happy to continue traveling in the US (it’s a big country!) as long as it’s not too much of a PIA.
But having seen people board planes wearing hazmat suits, and people bringing dogs onboard with their own goggles and face masks, I’ve come to the conclusion the vast majority of people will not travel this year.
Mitch, do a quintessential road trip in Texas. Trust me, it’s awesome. Start in Austin and head to Marfa and Big Bend. Still ranks as one of my best trips ever, despite my love of international.. You will not be disappointed and I can give you some beta on it if you need.
Thanks Stuart. Never been to Texas, would appreciate some tips if you don’t mind.
Feel free to email me. Matthew can slide the info your way if he wants (I authorize). If he won’t I will clog up the comments and give you a great itinerary of Texas kitsch and the ultimate road trip.
Mitch, I’ve lived in Texas my entire life. If you can get down here mid-late March, start in Austin or San Antonio, head to the Hill Country to the west and northwest, and drive around to see bluebonnet season (the hills turning purple really is something else). Get some BBQ at Cooper’s in Llano, and see the Nimitz Museum in Fredericksburg. If you have the time, then I second Stuart’s rec to head to Marfa and the Big Bend, or go east to the coast and check out Port Aransas. Weather that time of year is fantastic. The state is pretty much fully open, gas here is cheap, and outside of Austin/SA, it’s wide open spaces and not many people. It’ll be a week you really enjoy.
Agree with the folks above. Visit Texas. DFW Airport hasn”t slowed during the pandemic.
Thanks Stuart! No word from Matthew but if you send me your email here (from an active Craigslist posting), I can write you back:
1194bee33d7a34789d3764119c558802 at
sale.craigslist.org
Or just litter up the comments here if you prefer.
Thanks MeonMosh and John! Love the BBQ recs. Have some free time in early April so will go then. My wife has a good friend who recently moved to Dallas, so she’s on board as long as we start or end the trip there. My wife is from Sweden and has never been to Texas either.
MeonMosh nailed the stuff around Austin/San Antonio. Also get a bar night/live music in New Braunfels as well if you can at Gruene Hall. It’s a wonderful place! Hit Texas BBQ places wherever you go, Coopers is great as MeonMosh mentioned. But so many…especially in and around Austin. My whole road trip centered around BBQ and finding the best little spots all over Texas. Hit the road for Marfa but take the Old route 90 along the Mexican border (bring your docs as they do have CBP checkpoints along the route). Some forgotten small towns and quirky places to stop along the way. Marathon has a GREAT BBQ place and brewery. Spend a night in Alpine which is a bit like Marfa was before it went crazy. Then, spend a few days based in Marfa to enjoy the town and the Donald Judd installations etc. Book the walking tour of Chianti that he founded. Great restaurants all over town now as well. Laugh at all the Dallas socialites that come out for weekends…it’s quite the scene! Spend two days (4wd is best for optional dirt roads) around Big Bend doing small hikes and drives..(it’s a Beautiful Natl Park) and include maybe a night in Terlingua. There are a few decent hotels in Marfa – but also plan on staying at El Cosmico. It’s a cool hipster camp of retro trailer RV’s from the 30’s-60’s that are converted to rooms. Not exactly luxury – but fun. And just on the edge of town. They have live music etc as well. Finish off by heading to El Paso 3-4 hours away and stopping at Prada Marfa. It’s bizarre and a good photo op. Finish in El Paso, fly back from there to avoid doing the 500+ mile drive back to the cities. Texas is perfect for just winging it as well. Finding fun spots for BBQ along the road. Cool local road houses for beers at night, etc. Texas Monthly has some great articles/maps on road trips, BBQ places, road houses, etc. A good resource to start with. Have fun!! April is good before the rains hit in West Texas later in the month. Nights will be coldish though as it’s higher elevation. So bring some warmer stuff for evenings.
For Texas, if you’re going to go there, I’d highly recommend houston as well. I actually love it quite a bit. The food scene there is great – stunning vietnamese and Chinese, and high end food too. Great arts scene, very diverse city. From Houston easy drive to the Austin area and then continue the rest of the trip. I have family from San Antonio and went there for the first time a few years ago. Not impressive, didnt see the allure at all. But Houston is a phenomenal, comsompolitan city. Amazing food. Great art. Interesting architecture. Great museums. I actually prefer it to Austin as a place to live, but I understand kind of why people like going to Austin.
Thanks Stuart, you’re a legend. Going to start getting the details all sorted, mate. Thinking to start in Dallas and leave from El Paso. Seriously, thank you.
Mitch, the email you entered bounced back. You’ll have to send me your real email.
Story of my life, Matthew. Life hasn’t been easy for me ever since getting kicked out of college.
Email sent.
Mitch, if you need suggestions of things to do/eat around Dallas, feel free to e-mail me (DFW-area resident since 1996). If you’re into serious BBQ, I’ve hit up about 20 of the Texas Monthly Top 50 BBQ joints statewide and can tell you which ones are worth a visit. You can reach out via my page on Travel Codex or Matt can share with you.
Cheers, and enjoy your planning and your trip.
I appreciate the optimism.
I just got laid off today by a prominent Canadian airline that is no longer serving certain US destinations, and I was already not making enough given the slashed hours, since we only had one flight, instead of the dozen+ we usually had.
Even a summer that is half of what we used to have would do wonders, but I’m not sure if that’s in the cards. I hope to share your optimism.
While premium, long haul travel will take time to come back to what it was, “travel” will come back pretty strong in areas with widely adopted vaccination (like the US) this spring and summer
I was feeling pretty optimistic about getting vaccinated here in the US by summer, but recent figures are not promising. In NY, where I live, slots are already filled to mid-April. Next week 10 million more people will become eligible (those being people with certain pre-existing medical condition… there are a lot of common ones on the list, so it’s going to be a lot of people). Currently, the state is receiving 300,000 first doses per week. I think we can all do the math. Unless they significantly ramp up distribution, people are still going to be waiting at year’s end.
Who exactly stopped traveling, and why?
If you’re tested negative, what’s the risk in traveling again?
Did 100k BIS in 2020, and already hit 3 new countries in 2021 of another year of full time
Travel.
The idea that people are not traveling, is a real head scratcher to me.
But, it sure is nice! No crowds. Cheap prices.
Shrug. So weird people don’t do it.
Don is exactly right… who stopped traveling and why? Better for us that still want to live their lives though!
Domestic travel, yes. Most countries not highly dependent on tourism I’m expecting to be really (even ridiculously) conservative with opening borders… so we’ll see. Those dominoes might also fall really fast at some point
“Mitch” is correct while “dreaming” might not be the correct adjective to use you have a vested interest in drumming up business/hype for this travel year and next the reality says otherwise. Until we have what is estimated 65% vaccination results worldwide people are still at risk, then of course the variants which have really just started to rear their ugly heads. Now having said that within a couple of years we will be getting “boosters” like we do with the flu that is a year or so off. Take Hawaii with all the precautions the SA variant was detected. One last point, this one close to home, a good friend of mine daughter in law ( a nurse and pregnant” doing an intake the person lied to her and she contracted Covid, yes they did trace back, People are going to lie about this and that is the weakest link
Yes I have reservations for London this summer do I think I am going, not really
Leisure travel will boom as soon as countries open and people get the vaccine. Business travel not. A good friend of mine works for the one of the largest business travel company in the world and their forecast is not good. Many companies won’t ask employees to travel due to lawsuit concerns. Even if you get vaccine you can still claim there is a 5% chance to get Covid and no company will take that risk. I know companies that are allowing employees to travel for business are making them sign waivers of responsibility in case they get Covid. Also, many corporations see Covid as an excuse to cut costs so I don’t see those business class seats getting filled anymore.
No. Until it’s clear that the vaccines prevent transmission ( as opposed to the proven limiting of severity and duration), no government is going to give a green light to open borders. The reports on the Astra-Zeneca vaccine are disturbing: it appears not to stop transmission, at least in respect of the most common variant. To effectively control the virus, it is imperative that this happens.
Not true. The goal of a good vaccine should be to stop severe illness, hospitalizations and deaths, which these vaccines HAVE done.
Who cares about mild illness? If you reduce severity of Covid-19 down to the seasonal flu, then that would be great.
Now whether government bureaucracy (and some of the above posters) can understand that…
Nonsense. The role of a vaccine, by definition, is to prevent transmission; these ‘vaccines’ are indeed efficacious in preventing serious disease and limiting duration but that is only part of the solution…if they fail to prevent transmission then the virus will continue to circulate, with obvious adverse consequences for the unvaccinated and , potentially, vulnerable populations.
Is it better to take these medications? Obviously yes, given their benefits. But they are not a panacea….
Not all vaccines prevent disease transmission. Please stop throwing up tired pro disease debunked tropes
We need to have “covid is a hoax” rallies and then spray covid laced mist on the crowd.
Some will get covid and die as they should. Most will get partial immunity.
On the other hand Continue with vaccinations as well for those that have a brain.
My plan will achieve herd immunity faster. The idiots that are also weak die. The herd gets stronger. We can open up the country sooner.
@Pete the issue here is that the virus is mutating. Not as fast as say influenza, but it is mutating. The more the virus circulates the more chance there are for mutations that eventually evade the vaccine (as in the vaccine no longer protects people from serious disease). So we need vaccines that stop asymptomatic transmission AND we need to start vaccinating kids (no vaccines are approved for them yet) ASAP.
Don’t count your chickens before they’re blessed: we are a long, long way from serious resumption of travel, vaccination programs notwithstanding. Hope springs eternal, but it’s borderline delusional to think we’re going anywhere soon ( at least for Australians).
Very unlikely our borders will open again in 2021…
You stupid… travel isn’t coming back, too many people played the cooties game and showed that they were willing to OBEY the gubmint. Now, you think the government is going to let people have that freedom back?
Someone needs to tell Canada.
I love when Matthew triggers everyone. Really, it’s going to be what it is. I am taking it one day at a time at this point and making it the best that I can. I spent the spring stressing, the summer fighting, the fall questioning and the winter succumbing. At this point, now, I am just letting the chips fall where they may. I’ve got $100 on the table, a half pack of cigarettes and a full tank of gas….bring it on.
UAE has one the highest per capita vaccination rates. There was a time when the perception was the middle east idiots were uncivilized and backwards. Now no one can deny that mantle of idiocy has passed to christian right wing Republican idiots.
How times have changed.
My, oh, my, how some people here love to self-hate USA and Americans. Pasture is always greener on the other side, is it not?
I agree with David Purdue. CV viruses will come and go but the government will NEVER forget how easy it was to use fear to take away your civil liberties bit by bit.
I can see it coming back in 2023 and domestically (USA) in 2022. However, I expect to see a million dead in the US eventually, though the pace will slow down. Sad.
As for elite status, I don’t see it happening to me for at least 5 years, probably more. When I start to travel again, I will be in a burn mode. I have too many miles in too many programs. I happened to, by luck, drain my Hilton and Hertz points to near zero, but the airlines have full of miles that are getting worthless as all these enhancements are taking place. Several of my accounts will go from 2 or 3 business class trips anywhere to 1 to maybe even just a few domestic trips if there are more enhancements.
Obviously Debit has not been travelling lately. The mantle of idiocy has passed to the Democrat run cities of Portland, Seattle and San Francisco. Better we have more needles for COVID vaccinations that needle parks in Democrat run cities liberalizing drug use.
Sorry you lost me at “Kyle” and “excellent”
without an intervening “not”
LMAO
Here’s the rub, I had “virus” and I lost my husband and Mom to this plague. However, last September 5th, I celebrated my hubby’s birthday riding a camel in the middle of the Dubai desert.
My son and I had to jump through loops to coordinate the nasal testing there and back. Also, it was truly a shame to fly into Paris for the first time and not sightsee because as US citizens we are persona non grata.
Quite frankly, I believe if you could provide documented proof that you had Covid -19 , that should suffice just like it would a vaccination. Just my thoughts.
As far as traveling in 2021, a major shift would have to take place and move that virus out of here for Things to resume a normal pace. Until then, I will
I live vicariously through travel blogs about far away lands.
Given that the Brazil and South Africa variants evade immunity from prior infections and significantly reduce the protection from existing vaccines, I’d say that unless the global rate of vaccination somehow doubles in the next month, we’re looking at completely starting over on the herd immunity threshold. We had our chance to clamp down on the transmission enough until the vaccines became available, and we blew that chance because we were short-sighted and wanted to impatiently reopen right away. Nature chose to punish us by taking the extra chance we offered the virus to replicate and creating more mutations (even though this virus is overall fairly slow to mutate). If we had, say, offered enough of a social safety net for those whose jobs were at risk, and mitigated infections aggressively enough to keep replication numbers at the range of Oceanian and Asian countries, mutations would be much less likely and we’d probably be looking at herd immunity by the summer and resumption of travel by the fall. As it stands right now, by the time we get around to vaccinating enough people to reach herd immunity, the “escape” variants will take hold and we will need to wait another year until everyone can get booster shots for these new variants. By March, the US will be seeing a spike in infections unlike anything prior, just from the UK variant. By the summer, we’ll have enough people vaccinated such that the UK variant will be under control, after which the Brazil and South Africa variants will become dominant. The re-strained boosters will arrive by the late summer or early fall, and if we don’t get them into peoples’ arms by the winter, or if even more new variants emerge, it will be another long winter. I sincerely hope we’ve learned the lessons of 2020 and will not repeat the same mistakes, but I am not too optimistic…
I am naturally not one to overreact to risks, and my girlfriend was (rightfully) upset with me for underestimating the risk of this virus last spring, and I always try to chart out optimistic scenarios (for example, last summer I was toying around with models that showed that significant populations might already be immune from prior exposure to other coronaviruses and that we might reach herd immunity far sooner than originally thought, and those models do not seem to be consistent with the latest infection data or the recent research on COVID-19 immunity). A couple nights ago my girlfriend asked me for a dose of optimism, for possible scenarios where this won’t get too bad with the new variants… and I, for once, was at a loss for words, because I could not come up with any.
Here’s some optimism for her:
1. The vaccines most used right now do have decent (not fantastic) numbers against the South African and Brazilian variant. As good if not better than a seasonal Flu shot. And is very effective against the more common U.K. strain.
2. Moderna and Pfizer have said clearly that it would only take weeks or a few months to adjust the vaccine if needed to variants.
3. Infection rates are plummeting in the U.S. One might imagine that if the actual “real” rate of those infected the past year is three times that reported (which is believed by many) and we will in a few days approach 40M vaccinated, that is nearly half the country carrying antibodies. North Dakota is
an interesting case study. It was the most explosive State with cases between November and January. Look at the numbers now. Why? Probably most everyone had Covid or has been vaccinated there.
4. More people are wearing masks than ever before. I see it myself. For the most part people are finally taking mask wearing seriously.
5. There is less International travel due to the new hoops to jump through. Mexico in particular…where it seems everyone from the U.S., Brazil, Europe, was congregating given the ease in going there.
The current administration is purposely being pessimistic. They have to be to counter the year of Trump sweeping reality under the rug. But we really do have a lot to be optimistic about. Things will never be like 2019 again. But we will see life and a sense of easier living come summer. We are well on the way.
Yeah, I’ve been following those developments myself. I certainly agree with you that the true infection rate in the U.S. may be three times as large, given what rigorous statistical models show. But even assuming that, we’re already too late for the UK strain. The current best estimates for total infected in the U.S. is around 25~30% of the population, and vaccine first dose is around 10% (and some of these overlap). Even if you take this optimistic case, we’re around 35~40% being immune, and at the rate of 2~3M doses per week, by the time the UK strain becomes dominant in March, we’ll only be around 45% immune, far behind where we need to be. There may be a subpopulation that is less susceptible to the virus, so we can maybe also take the most optimistic case for such heterogeneity, but even that is limited by the recent data. There were speculations last year that we were seeing heterogeneous herd immunity when infection rates were dropping in late summer, and we now know that this was only possible with the aid of some seasonality and voluntary changes in human behavior, and that the heterogeneity was actually much less significant than the more optimistic models showed. Taking into account this new data from the winter, I think now the most optimistic scenario still sees a significant spike in U.S. infections around March or April (maybe around 65~80% of last spring), after people let their guards down and the UK variant arrives. North Dakota is admittedly doing great at vaccinations, especially for such a rural state, but it’s also a very homogeneous state with a small population, so it does have unique advantages in vaccine distribution that do not apply to larger, more diverse states. Also keep in mind that many population centers are running far behind North Dakota in prior infection rates.
Once we’re done with that, we’ll be seeing the BR and ZA variants solidly take hold in the U.S., and it seems reasonable to expect only around 60~70% efficacy against these variants for Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, and Novavax, and probably 50~60% for J&J/Janssen (and almost no protection for Oxford/AstraZeneca, which doesn’t have the modification to the gene sequence that allows the other candidates to be somewhat stably matched against the new variants). The problem is, ZA and BR variants seem to almost completely escape immunity from prior infections, so getting to herd immunity will have to come almost entirely from vaccines (which means we’re currently at 5~10% immune), and given that these variants have higher R0 numbers, the herd immunity threshold is higher. We would need to vaccinate at least 80~90% of the population even with the newly re-strained booster shots being 95% effective. Which means that we need another full cycle of global vaccine distribution after we finish vaccinating everyone with the existing 60% effective shots. Yes, modifying the vaccines might only take a few weeks for the leading manufacturers (including Novavax, which is the best candidate for widespread vaccination), but we do not have the regulatory structure for “updated” vaccines like we do for the flu, so running clinical trials and approving those vaccines will take time, not to mention the national rollout will take all year, at the very least.
I think the problem is that there is a tradeoff between resumption of travel/life and the risk of even more mutated variants spreading. If we get another variant that escapes the immunity from the new re-strained boosters, what do we do then? Also, a significant percentage of recovered COVID-19 patients (even mild cases) have shown debilitating long-term symptoms, and there are reports saying that this might be connected to a lifelong autoimmune response that this infection confers. While that might not disrupt my travel (if I stay uninfected), that is a huge long-term burden on our society going forward.
Anyway, thank you for trying to give us a dose of optimism. I do think life will be somewhat better in the summer. But in the long run we are headed for at least two more years of continuing to fight this virus, I’m afraid.
You make many valid points. Not what any of us want to hear, but valid nonetheless. I will choose to hope for the best – but expect the worst. I fear though that if what you say is true, I’m unsure if society can withstand two more years of this. Not only do you talk about the effects of Covid long term from those recovering, but the weight on mental health is already rearing its ugly head. An example being that we will only begin to see the damage this has done to our youth over time, and it won’t be pretty.
A year into this and really, who knows. I refuse to give up to complete hopelessness though. At some point this has to all end. Or, at the least, get better.