The incoming administration has signaled conflicting intentions concerning a pending U.S. lockdown. But if it happens, I’ll escape the U.S. first…
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COVID-19 Infections at All-Time High*
The last week has been the worst for reported infection rates of COVID-19. There is an asterisk behind the “highest infection” for a few reasons. First, testing has finally rolled out to a level that is available ubiquitously. Positive results will undoubtedly rise when more are tested. Whether more people are actually sick is less conclusive.
Second, false positives have been an issue with some forms of testing. Elon Musk highlighted four tests he took on one day this week, two positive results and two negatives:
Something extremely bogus is going on. Was tested for covid four times today. Two tests came back negative, two came back positive. Same machine, same test, same nurse. Rapid antigen test from BD.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 13, 2020
Third, while there have been some question as to mortality as a result of COVID-19 vs. other co-morbidities in the past, the correlation between excess deaths and COVID-19 deaths seem relatively comparable. But what is not being discussed along with “highest infection rates” is that mortality rates continue to fall. Through the week of November 7th, (according to the CDC) deaths involving COVID-19 (including co-morbidities) was just 1,143 while infections reached 328,119 – an effective mortality rate of 0.348% in line with the flu which has a 0.56% mortality rate in the US.
But that number is inconclusive as those infections have not moved through the process as of yet. A reader, Ed, compiled a more realistic number of about 1% (available in the comments with his math for your review.) That doesn’t take into account the untested, and asymptomatic cases but is a more exact number for the current state of affairs than historical mortality.
There’s no doubt that mortality will rise as those cases move from new infection to treatment to recovery or fatality. But there’s also a great number of asymptomatic people that have the virus, are never tested and therefore don’t factor into the true mortality rate of the disease, falsely propping the number higher than it actually is.
This week infections have risen even higher reaching 153,400 on one day but the most deaths on any day of the week was just over 1800. Each of the last four weeks, mortality has dropped (from the beginning of the virus) from 2.6 to now 2.2%.
So, yes, infections are at an all-time high – but the virus is increasingly less lethal, treatment appears to be more effective and when high infections once meant high death rate – that’s no longer as true.
Conflicting Information From President-Elect
President-elect Biden has stated both that he will and that he will not issue a nationwide lockdown. His coronavirus staff has stated that they would impose a four-to-six-week lockdown of the entire country. But also that they would not.
President-elect Biden has also stated that a nationwide mask mandate is unconstitutional while Vice President-elect Harris has stated that it would be one of the first actions upon taking office. She’s since walked that back stating that the mandate would be toothless (there’d be no penalty for non-compliance.)
When asked if he would “use your federal leverage to mandate that,” Biden replied: “Yes, I would. From an executive standpoint, I would….I would do everything possible to make it required that people had to wear masks in public.”
Biden reiterated that promise at the Democratic National Convention last month. “If I’m your president,” he said, “on day one we’ll have a national mask mandate.” then…
“I cannot mandate people wearing masks,” the Democratic presidential nominee admitted during a CNN “town hall,” adding that he could still require masks in federal buildings and on federal land.”
It seems the administration will let the states decide, which is not a marked departure from the current model.
Why I Will Avoid the Lockdown and How
As evidenced above, whether a lockdown is in the cards appears to depend on the day, who asks the question, and whether it’s a full moon or not. Regardless of whether President-elect Biden issues a nationwide lockdown or not, my home state of Pennsylvania will probably lock down again anyway. The state has been overly aggressive with aspects of COVID-19 shutdown enforcement as it sees fit. For example, permitting 200,000 monthly arrivals into Pittsburgh International Airport, but refusing to host the heavily tested and tiny 100-person contingent from the Toronto Blue Jays on travel concerns.
Restaurants, for example, have to engage in health safety theater, requiring a mask from the front door to the table, but nothing once seated a few meters away from the door. It’s not that I am not in favor of having practical measures in place to protect employees and the public, and I am not in favor of shutting down places of business entirely – but good intentions seem to make for maddeningly stupid policy choices.
I’m not saying I will avoid the US lockdown because I have to wear a mask to walk 15 feet. I don’t care that much about the topic to let that dictate my decisions. What I’m demonstrating is that I don’t believe the government is capable of making competent logical restrictions and solutions that deliver a safer environment or reasonable experience for citizenry.
Based on the falling mortality rate highlighted above, I’ll skip the hysteria. I’d rather find myself in Croatia, newly opened Costa Rica who has done away with their selective tourism model, or Mexico. Croatia, in particular, has been open for some time to Americans and hasn’t encountered the struggle with the virus nor the business challenges other nations have.
In case you thought I’m some irrational nut job (many of you thought this before I typed this post, that won’t change) the French have also sought an exit from Paris ahead of their lockdown this week. Escapees from Paris created the longest traffic jam in French history – more than 434 miles (700 km) – fleeing the city. Some are sick from COVID-19, some are sick of COVID-19.
It’s not just Parisians. More than 300,000 New Yorkers have changed their address and bailed from locked down New York too.
Conclusion
I’m saddened to see increased infection numbers, even if those numbers shouldn’t be seen with the same concern as initial results. And I don’t know what to expect from the Biden administration who spent the summer talking about a mask mandate that they’d implement, only to recant it as unconstitutional, or discussing a national lockdown only to walk that back days later. Even though my own state governor’s measures were found to be in violation of the Commonwealth’s constitution, those remedies have remained anyway. Any amplification of this madness is enough to send me packing, at least until it calms down some.
What do you think? Are you staying put for a national lockdown (or state lockdown if applicable?) Do you think lockdown is necessary? Which of the statements the new presidential administration has made will match their decisions?
My god, you’re such a [redacted by admin].
Please “escape” – we don’t need any more knuckle-dragging selfish dicks like you. Don’t let the door hit you in the [redacted by admin] on the way out.
This election was stolen by evil leftist Democrats from our messiah the trump.
I rrfuse to follow any orders of the deep state from today. And if you are a true believer and supporter of trump you will do the same. Don’t follow speed limits, refuse to follow any directions from the cops, don’t obey any orders, especially if they say put up your hands, or lay down your weapons. DO NOT FOLLOW THEIR ORDERS.
Believe me, if you are really a true supporter of trump i will hear about you in the news. Everyone else is just a poser.
#maga
My cya: i meant none of that.
I order you not to commit suicide!
Are you going to disobey, debit?
Bottom line, credit cards are better than debit.
It depends what you mean by a lockdown. To me, a lockdown is similar to what happened in Wuhan back in January. Literally everything closed except for hospitals. Airports and Train stations were closed. Here in the US, none of those transport hubs every closed. I doubt Biden would close any of the airports but then again who knows? Vaccine sounds promising but what if this virus mutates yet again?
I also think death numbers are not as high because doctors aren’t as ventilator-happy as they were back in March. Here in NYC, I recall how ~90% of patients placed on ventilators resulted in death.
The total number of deaths are up. That is the most important number I look at because it is hard to fabricate death. Covid 19 is worse. Deaths are up.
@Derek. Nominally, they are not. Average deaths in March/April were substantially higher with lower total number of cases. March average COVID deaths nominally were 4,033/day for the month. November numbers are less than half that, October average is closer to 1/3rd to 1/4 on average.
The point is that if the nominal number even reached the same as March (it hasn’t it’s substantially lower) but the positive tests due to availability of testing is even just 2x, the virus would be half as lethal. As the numbers have been reported to this point, with fewer deaths and 10x more positive confirmed cases, it’s far, far less deadly than previously thought.
Mortality rate can go down because there is more awareness. Hospital know better how to treat people sick with the virus. Sensitive groups know that they have to be more careful, the issue is that hospitals again are sounding the alarm that they are at capacity, so for all the advances that there has been, we could see mortality rate ticking up. So you math is too focus on the results but not understanding the key risk metrics.
@Derek The death numbers are being fabricated. I’m not saying people aren’t dying from the virus, but if someone dies in the hospital from another cause and they just so happen to have Covid then their death certificate says they died from that!
We’re taking the Chinese government’s word about Wuhan, which I don’t believe. And if we want to point to Wuhan, why did business go back to normal there after four months, yet in the rest of the world, we seem to regress? The Chinese aren’t wearing face masks, haven’t for a long time. Maybe the Chinese government doesn’t tolerate media lies the way the Western world does? The dead wood burned in March and April, those folks would have died by now anyway. Death estimates are way below what was predicted. Death rate in the USA will be much lower than the previous few years. Flu numbers are non existent this autumn as everything now is classified as covid. Average mortality age in the USA for 2020 actually has gone up by three years. Doesn’t sound like a crisis to me. Death rates will go way up next year due to non essential medical treatments being delayed or cancelled to make space for the influx of patients, about 30 percent of hospital beds at the peak in March and April. Remember the hospital ships in NYC and LA that treated less than 200 people? Remember the lockdown was for two weeks to flatten the curve? Nothing about prevention, it was assumed we were all going to be exposed, just not too many, too rapidly as to overwhelm the medical system. As for a vaccine … what happens when covid 20 pops up in two months and covid 21? Or was this just a one off that conveniently timed itself to wreck havoc during a presidential election year when the USA was doing just a bit too good for everyone’s comfort despite being led by a narcissist, tyrant or whatever else you want to call the president.
Kyle: don’t know if you’d trust a data source like John’s Hopkins, but if you do and you look at thier data, you’ll see the test positivity rate has gone up since Oct (from about 4% to about 10%). https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states If you had a constant level of infection in society and you simply started testing more, you’d expect the positivity rate to go down, not up.
The fact it’s gone up means the higher number of cases we’re seeing now is due to a higher level of infection, not a higher number of tests.
As for the death rate: it’s lower because we do indeed have better treatments. But many of those treatments depend on the hospital to administer them, and if hospitals are full, they can’t be administered. Thus the death rate will go up.
That’s not to say you shouldn’t leave the country, but you should be presenting readers a full and complete picture of the situation. It cheapens all the work Matt has done to do otherwise.
Indeed.
Well stated. Thanks.
I cited Johns Hopkins data and provided a link. I agree, prior treatment with ventilators seems to correlate to much higher and thus it’s the mortality is dropping weekly. So at the same time, if the virus is far less deadly (latest numbers suggest less than 0.34% a 9x reduction from total stated figures) then why are we acting as if it’s just as deadly as before?
@kyle you specifically stated ‘Whether more people are actually sick is less conclusive.’
That’s factually false. More people ARE sick right now. If the increased case count was just an artifact of testing, the positivity rate would be going down, but it’s not.
Look, it’s possible to have rational arguments about whether the economic cost of a lockdown is worth it, or whether a mask mandate is worth it. But those arguments should be made based on actual facts, and you’re not doing that here.
@David O, thanks for taking the time to write this, I was going to post this same exact thing. Saying Covid isn’t any worse than the flu by comparing current death rates between the two is misleading. In my (admittedly non-medical professional) opinion, it seems to me that they’re only comparable because we’ve successfully flattened the curve and people who get sick are able to receive medical intervention.
Once all the states’ hospital systems are overwhelmed and they have to start turning people away, that death rate is going to go way up. I’m horrified by the number of my fellow Americans who have revealed themselves to be selfish crybabies (about wearing masks, about having indoor gatherings, etc), but not surprised. We talk a good game about being tough, but we’re proving to the world that we’re soft, entitled, and unwilling to deal with true adversity in the name of the common good.
Really? Have you given any thought to the idea that you might get sick – flat on your back in the hospital or ICU sick – in one of these “escape” countries? Good luck with that.
Have given this consideration, it’s a concern but a very, very small one. If all the US hospitals are full anyway as stated on the news, then wouldn’t I be better off elsewhere anyway where there are open beds?
So many doctors in ‘escape’ countries went to school in Western countries at top schools. Often private hospitals have state of the art equipment at a fraction of the price charged domestically. US doctors focus on treatment much more than prevention, which is what you find in ‘escape’ countries. Makes more sense to brush your teeth and floss daily then wait for them to rot and need root canals or extractions. Most who comment about medical systems in ‘escape’ countries have little to zero experience.
Stop picking on Biden. He just forgot what he said 2 minutes ago. Even Pete Buttigieg said so! Seriously, Biden is better than Harris so we need to do everything to watch that his coffee isn’t spiked or that he isn’t pushed down the stairs with the excuse that he fell.
When Biden was VP, he said not to ride in planes and trains to prevent H1N1 flu spread but Obama had to make excuses for the statement and correct it.
I have to laugh at people who dredge up old statements from Biden to “prove” his lack of mental acuity, when Hair Furor literally spews contradictions, hypocrisy, and utterly unintelligible nonsense every single day.
Croatia would be a had option due to weather in January/February
Brazil is fully open, might be a better option weather wise, plus carnival in Feb might be best time to go due to reduced crowds compared to typical craziness
Message from Europe…
USA You are a MASSIVE [redacted by admin].
An embarrassment to the yourself and imploding in front of everyone’s eyes.
@Andy, you say this as the UK, France, and Germany lockdown and Parisians escape? Who would take them seriously as an authority on the matter given that their measures proved unsuccessful?
I don’t understand your point regarding the lockdown in Paris – the Parisians were, in the majority, travelling to their country homes (it is quite common for a lot of Parisians to have an apartment in the city and a country home for the summer & weekends, often were the rest of the family is) – escaping from your city apartment to a house with a garden is different than leaving the country…this is more like the New Yorkers fleeing to New England.
Wow. Really, Kyle? How your views on this relate to a travel/miles blog is beyond me. Matthew will defend you of course, but my take is that you have crossed the boundaries of your role in what he has worked for years to create. It’s one thing if he chose to write this dribble…his blog, his choice. But for you to step in and throw this on here is pretty surprising. It makes your Disney analysis look like Pulitzer material.
I’ll leave it to others, like David O did, to pick apart and destroy your delusional rant. Other than to say that whatever needs to come down the road, it will come because your favorite President did absolutely nothing in the many months he had to try and prevent us from getting to where we are now. In fact, he encouraged this genocide.
If you leave as you say, I wish you a bon voyage, and don’t let the door hit you on the way out.
What this guy said x1000. Seriously another pathetic post by Kyle. You can’t even make an honest argument about whether lockdowns are the correct step, because this guy is just so disingenuous and loses all credibility.
Hey Kyle- you’re right, testing has gone up significantly since the last peak, but guess what? Cases have gone up even faster. In August/Sep the positive testing rate got as low as ~4.25% (ish, it might have been a little lower or higher, I can’t remember), but now it’s almost 9%. Not to mention hospitalizations have been spiking since the September low and are now at our 2nd peak level and will continue to rise in the coming weeks. You’re purposefully ignoring data to suit your agenda. It’s not inconclusive at all whether more people are getting sick.
Given that you have no interest in making good faith arguments, no one should take you seriously about anything you say regarding COVID.
As you maga people like to say, if you don’t like agenda of this new administration, feel free to leave. We won’t miss you.
Speaking of willfully ignoring things to suit one’s own agenda. Did you miss the parts where I said I doubt that a Biden/Harris administration will carry out either a mask mandate nor lockdown? How I included where Biden himself said he thought it was unconstitutional?
What? Does that even remotely refute any of what I just said?
Where did I say that Biden would lock us down.
I said we can’t even have a serious debate about whether that would be a hypothetically good idae when you misrepresent basic data. Saying that it’s “inconclusive that more people are getting sick” is just simply not true. The positive test rate is way up and is also evidenced by hospitalizations going up.
No response Kyle? Are you only going to argue a point that I never made (where did I say anything about whether Biden would implement a lockdown)? I’m still waiting.
Acknowledge that you were wrong about the data (clearly more people are getting sick than before). It’s not just that testing has gone up (although yes that does contribute to the higher case numbers), but the positivity rate has gone significantly faster and hospitalizations are continuing to increase.
@BG – First, as much as we like to respond to all comments we don’t. Sometimes because it’s not necessary and sometimes because we are busy or we miss them as they come through. I don’t think you’ll find a more engaged blogger on BA in at least attempting to engage their audience and answer comments. I’m sorry that I wasn’t able to respond fast enough for you, but I will do so now.
Second, you asked how my prior response refuted your argument. It didn’t in totality. It did respond to your assumption that I am “maga” and suggesting that I don’t support the incoming administration. I was demonstrating that despite all of our news feeds being filled with new “lockdown” threats ( I say threats because they are saying they might do it, they could do it, they may have to do it, but haven’t yet done it) and then showed you how some of that media hyperbole is unfounded. That the administration itself isn’t currently weighing a lockdown despite what every major news outlet alerted my phone to over the last week.
Third, we still don’t agree. You’re saying simply because there is a higher absolute number of positives and a higher positive rate on those tests that more are sick now than before. Where we agree is that not enough testing was available early on or, really, up until now where it seems everyone who wants a test can have one. Where we fundamentally disagree is your view that this demonstrates more are getting sick, and my position that the unknown universe of people in the US was so large we just had no idea how many people had it in the first place.
I love analogies, so here’s one:
If there are two kids very sick in a classroom and you only have two tests, you give it to the two sickest kids and when they test positive, the positive test rate is skewed higher. If we test a third of the room and find that three of ten in a classroom (including the two sickest) are ill, well yes, the number of positives increases but the rate at which the sick exist amongst the well drops from 100% to 30%. If we tested the entire classroom we may find that of the 30 kids only four in total were ill, dropping the rate to 13.3% from an initial 100% and then 30%. You’re saying, “see” there are more positives as we test more classrooms, and I am saying that it doesn’t mean more people are getting sick, rather more people now have a test to discover or prove they are sick.
I don’t disagree that the positive test rate could lead you to assume more people are getting sick (which is why I didn’t argue with you) but it ignores a vast universe of people that are asymptomatic, have mild to moderate symptoms, and those that have chosen not to get tested and are not part of the sample size but may move into that sample size now that tests are more widely available. Further, what’s not been made clear is whether positive tests like Mr. Musk’s are counted, once, twice, or not at all based on the two positive and two negative results he received. Musk wasn’t sick twice and he may not be sick at all, but how that’s reflected in the numbers reported by hospitals varies from facility to facility, county to county, and state to state.
The only thing we know for sure is that from the known universe of positive results and deaths, the lethality of the virus has slowed either due to treatment, the strength of the virus, or that many had it and didn’t experience the adverse effects.
Agreed. What is the point of using a travel blog for this? I defend your right to do it, I just don’t see any value given that people are engaging in this conversation on countless other platforms, and this doesn’t touch much on travel impacts. How many readers really come here to see these musings?
More lockdowns because they have been so successful in the past where?
They have been very successful in Australia. And before you go saying ‘well it’s an island’. The Government is in charge they could implement the same rules. If a government decided to take a unified approach at curtailing coronavirus they would be able to. It’s incumbent on citizens following their orders. People need to stop being so selfish and follow orders instead of thinking that they, with no credentials, know better than health professionals and statisticians who have spent their entire career addressing on health related problems.
An ignorant blog post like this – making major assumptions on the surface of some figures, not spending any time dissecting and trying to understand the reasons for the data – from someone without any credentials validates other people’s wrong assumptions.
It’s bizarre how you aren’t trying to be part of any solution. And using your platform to give other people the green light to do the same. You’ve gone off on a selfish tangent about how you intend on skipping this instead of a responsible post about how you intend to do your part so that we don’t stay in this perpetual cycle.
How is not being there somehow not doing my part?
Two things (well really three):
1) I’m getting my word in before your comments section becomes a dumpster fire, which you may or may not regret. Also, I’d be careful about throwing out some of your stats, such as cases up due to testing. From what I’ve seen positivity rate and hospitalizations are also up, so while some of the increase is a “casedemic” due to testing, some of it is real. How much of a problem it really is depends on who you ask on any given day.
2) I posited the “national mandate” thing with someone at work the other day. Unless President Harris is willing to declare martial law and have the military enforce a national lockdown (highly unlikely), yes, the “mandate” is really more a “suggestion” via CDC guidelines, which probably will change to recommend “Stay Home Stay Safe” and closure of “nonessential” businesses and schools for some time. Enforcement as such might come in the form of Harris denying COVID disaster funds to any jurisdiction that refuses to comply with the mandates. How much she can do this without Congressional approval is the question. Any attempt to tie COVID spending to mandatory lockdowns likely fails in the Senate, and absent that I suspect it also fails a court challenge.
3) Given that I think the national lockdown remains a “suggestion” due to lack of Congressional approval, seems your best bet is to flee to a state that will flip the bird to the admin’s recommendations. Governor Abbott welcomes you, by the way. I’d think twice about fleeing the country entirely. If you end up in a situation like Peru or Ecuador back in March, you might be stuck there for much longer than you bargained for.
Two questions, well really, three:
1) Everyone agrees that numbers are up for infection, some hospitals are also seeing capacity limits approached. However, some of those hospitals will also admit that they began taking on elective surgeries again which had been postponed earlier in the year, and some of those hospitals have reserved beds for COVID-19 patients that may or may not be occupied. How serious is this wave and how much of the increase in positive results is because of a surge in the virus or a surge in testing?
2) You’ve just skipped past President-elect Biden altogether?
3) I don’t think it will come to that, though fleeing PA for another state might be valid for awhile. But as I stated, I don’t think they will follow up on the threats as they have already walked them back. That said, if I was stuck in Peru or Ecuador for the foreseeable future… I’m not sure I see that down side.
I do wonder why Trump voters always have to get so snarky about things. President Harris? Come on. Joe Biden is the President.
PS. Why do you as an immigrant to the USA vote for someone who wants to stop immigration? You got yours so let the rest of the world shaft themselves?
I don’t see a nationwide lockdown coming from Biden, and I don’t think most of the country would comply even if he did. I do see a mask mandate coming. But the march of vaccine distribution will probably get a lot more attention than virus restrictions is my prediction
I think you’re right on all of that Willem.
I see poor mask wearing a lot.
I see about 90% of people wearing silly homemade or cloth masks. Surgical masks are now no longer in short supply and protect better. N95 masks are projected to be no longer in short supply for medical use in December so ordinary people could start using them in January and should feel no guilt.
Of the 90% of people wearing silly masks, 40% of them wear them poorly with huge gaps or even the nose uncovered. This is terrible. In other words…
10% wear a decent mask
36% wear them so inadequately that the benefit is much reduced or even of no value.
54% wear inadequate masks but at least they look like they fit ok.,
Sad.
This.
Your calculated case-mortality ratio is inaccurate because of the sharp increase in cases in the past few weeks. It takes people a week or two to die from covid after they’re infected, so the number of deaths this week must be analyzed in the context of the cases reported two-ish weeks ago, because all of those people who died this week were infected then – not now. By using newer case numbers, which have have increased sharply in the past couple weeks, you inflate the denominator, lowering the apparent case-mortality ratio. It’s simply bad math.
@Max – I don’t disagree that this week’s infection numbers vs. this week’s deaths isn’t a good metric due to the two-week delay of those deaths or recovery. However, every single week mortality has dropped by at least 0.1% since the beginning of the pandemic. I did mention this in the post and have done several weeks prior. To move the largest single COVID-19 universe by 5% weekly is a dramatic improvement. As another commenter said, the use of ventilators in the early days of treatment was a mistake (or at least appeared to be) and since treatment has evolved, we are seeing the mortality drop every week. So while this week’s infection numbers are not yet correlated with deaths, if you look at the prior two weeks (both of which had high surges that mirror March/April infection rates) you’ll see a far, far lower mortality rate associated which has been consistent the last 6-8 weeks.
While the death rate has certainly gone down since the spring, and that is great progress, the fact that there has indeed been a decline does not excuse your use of bogus math to manipulate the death rate, and then claim that the case mortality ratio for covid is lower than that of the flu (which is a lie) using that bad math. I thought that this may have been a genuine oversight, but you’ve left it uncorrected for an entire day now. I expect better from Live and Let’s Fly.
@Max – Thanks for your response. In fairness, when using traditional or total mortality in another post it was cited as wreckless because it didn’t reflect the current state of affairs. Fair enough, but a current mortality rate isn’t readily available so we have to do math. It’s easily verifiable that the influx of positives with the relatively few additional deaths is skewing the numbers down as I have documented from 2.6 down to 2.2 over the last few weeks. In order to do so, the current mortality rate has to be far, far lower than the total mortality (otherwise the average would remain stagnant.) Plenty of commenters, such as yourself, have disqualified the veracity of the post based on “bad math” but not a single one has provided a realistic current mortality rate.
So I ask you, please, correct my bad math but provide a current mortality rate along with it. It’s not difficult to say the math is wrong, but it does seem difficult to come up with what that number is. I welcome your response and will be happy to correct the number if you present a conclusive alternative.
I left for Mexico in mid September and it’s been a great move. No stupidity down here. Wear a mask in places where it makes sense, but don’t dwell on Covid and get depressed by it. Don’t expect doomsday is coming the way the US media wants you to believe. Rather, people here are happy there is tourism as they see it translates into better business and more jobs. You can surround yourself with despair (USA) or you can abandon ship, at least until the divers can take a look and tell us, there was no hole after all, just a false alarm from the liberal politicians and their partners in crime who call themselves journalists to push a political agenda. All of the Americans I meet here, no matter their political affiliation, don’t wear masks except where necessary. It’s all a show in the USA. People try to be normal here in Mexico. And tourism numbers from el Norte prove there are many who prefer this condition.
Kyle,
You are the biggest looser I have ever seen in my lifetime. You referred to Sleepy Joe as the “President-Elect”. You, the media, and the far left antifa scum are spreading disinformation. Sleepy Joe will never be the President of the United States. He is a looser and a bump and needs to go back to his basement where he belongs. Hard-working American Patiriots will not accept this rigged election result. If you listen to loosers, then you will become a looser like them. “We are going to keep on winning, winning, winning!”
#MAGA2020
*loser
Is this a parody or is this real? I honestly can’t tell…
No idea…
In addition to “loser,” you misspelled “whining, whining, whining!”
This has been going on for 8 months now and politicians/decision makers still don’t understand that infection rates don’t rise cause gyms are open, it’s because of private parties, weddings and other gatherings where people just don’t give a [redacted by admin] about rules . You can mandate a lockdown all you want, people will find ways around it and underground services will increase.
All this nonsense about travel restrictions and quarantine is BS, who has the time and resources to follow up on that? Unless you have a kid, closing of schools wouldn’t affect you and the rest is just paranoia and can easily be ignored.
I think you make a pretty well reasoned argument. I’ve felt from the beginning that this virus was not as deadly to the majority of people as the hype would have you believe. Not to mention that the very real harm being done by the ongoing restrictions etc are never quantified and hardly discussed.
It interesting to extent to which fear of Covid has become a religion. Say anything that suggests maybe masks have downsides or are not the be all end all and the mob rises us to demand your head. Similarly to suggest that we all should not be living in terror results in an immediate loud reaction from the same mob. A reaction that is based on a conviction that the virus is an absolute death sentence.
Meanwhile we ignore the fact that enourmous personal liberties have been taken for us under the guise of “emergency powers” for an event that is closing in on 1 year old. It doesn’t help either that politics are inevitably involved or that Fauci and the CDC lied to us in the beginning about masks which doubtless significantly contributed to early spread. Politicians being who they are don’t want to easily cede the power they have seized for themselves nor to admit that perhaps mistakes may have been made. Meanwhile the number of people who have died is but a small drop in the bucket compared to those who literally had their lives and livelihoods flushed down the toilet over this.
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out. Take a few of your “freedom-loving” friends with you, please. Buh-bye.
Oh, good, it’s the designated “hot take” contributor to the blog. Such a very hot take.
A few things:
– Go use those Johns Hopkins stats and look at the COVID death rate in Germany per million (150 per million) vs. Sweden (no lockdowns, 614 per million) or the US (inconsistent lockdowns and response, highly politicized, 746 per million) before you lump them in with the UK and France. Go put in Canada too (293 per million) while you’re at it. So your idea that “the government is capable of making competent logical restrictions and solutions that deliver a safer environment or reasonable experience for citizenry”… maybe the difference in numbers is because some countries have better governments more capable of making competent logical restrictions.
– Incidentally, ALL of those countries I just mentioned are spiking on death rates. Hello second wave! This was true of the last worldwide pandemic (Spanish flu), in that it had multiple waves. So no real surprise here.
– Part of the reason we wanted to “crush the curve” a while back (if you can remember back 7-8 months, I know this is hard to do during a hot take) is to not overwhelm hospitals, which you can do if COVID is widely spreading. In some US states, that’s happening. Governors are not doing shutdowns to punish you. They’re doing it so hospitals don’t get overwhelmed.
– Glad you mentioned flu. Guess what else is going to start spiking right around now, now that we’re in cold weather? Oh right, flu. Guess what that also means? A bunch more people in the hospital competing with COVID patients for a limited amount of resources (it’s not like we can double our health care professionals in 7-8 months).
Escape however you want to, I suppose, but “LoCkDoWnS dOn’T wOrK” isn’t actually born out (there’s even some regional differences in the US- go use that Johns Hopkins data to compare deaths over 7 days per 100k in WA, OH or CA with deaths in WI, NV and SD). I suggest that if you’re a data-minded person you look at the countries or regions that have better track records of not having people die and see what they’re doing.
Everything I read, all the statistics and test numbers, etc tell me this is real, it is widespread, it is contagious and it is dangerous. I follow all the guidelines given. I wear a mask and rarely go out except to buy groceries, and the past couple months to go to work.
But politicians don’t follow their own rules meaning they don’t seem to think the virus is of much concern. I know only one person who has had it and I work for an airline where we are exposed to everything. I don’t know anyone who has been hospitalized with it. I know two people who know people who’ve been hospitalized. I don’t know anyone who has died from it and I don’t know anyone who knows anyone who has died from it.
My own experience makes me doubt all the news and statistics and test numbers. I’m not a conspiracy theorist so I still believe all those statistics. But it’s really become a situation of wondering whether I should believe my own experience or believe the media/”science”.
I say, have fun traveling and enjoying life.
How sad that we have politicized this
I’ll listen to the scientists – not all those who have a bias based on their political leanings.
The poor and many others who are vulnerable cannot escape. We need to learn something from this and maybe it is to be less focused on ourselves and be capable of feeling what others are suffering through.
If we don’t learn what we should – we shall have to repeat it all over again.
We have become a very selfish nation almost incapable of genuine community
Kyle it’s clear you will miss Trump when he’s gone.
I can’t relate (lol) but it’s funny to see how much Biden winning irks you.
So funny, because another commenter accused me of being part of the leftist media. What do you think the chances are that maybe the reader decides the slant of the writer based solely on their own perceptions?
I’m an independent, and have voted for both parties in the past, so the chances in my case are basically zero.
I love how you think lockdown is literally the worst thing that can happen to you. To be clear I am NOT in favor of another lockdown, but this article is so tone deaf it’s not even real. 1200+ Americans dying a die, and your reaction to the President-Elect pledging to institute a basic health measure (mask wearing) is not “gee, that might actually save lives” but “Ahhhhh I have to leave before the lockdown” (which he is not going to institute).
I love an independent and find myself most often in that camp (despite what vocal readers may think.)
To be absolutely clear, I stated that I doubt the new administration will differ at all in their approach “It seems the administration will let the states decide, which is not a marked departure from the current model.” This followed where I included links from major media sources where Biden/Harris both stated conflicting positions on the matter resting on neither a national lockdown nor a national mask mandate. I also said I don’t mind sensible changes but linked to the absolute asinine approach that PA has taken. I have no issues with sensible changes and suggested that Disney shouldn’t increase capacity. But those somehow are all ignored by whatever lightning rod issue strikes with the reader. You’re not in favor of a lockdown either but yet saying so as a post and not a comment is tone-deaf? Huh?
Thanks for the clarification.
Saying “I’m not in favor of lockdown” is different from saying “U.S. LOCKDOWN THREATENED. I’LL ESCAPE FIRST…”
You get the difference between the apparent tone of those two phrases, right?
The capitalization is from the theme, but sure, if it’s in caps lock then yeah.
I’d like to share something with you. Australia just went a week without a COVID-19 case. Suddenly, yesterday we had an outbreak of just 4 cases in one state (South Australia) and that led to their neighbouring state (Western Australia) completely locking everyone from SA out, even people who were in the air on their way to the state. And this was only 48 hours after WA lifted a 7 month ban on anyone from anywhere else in Australia entering the state yes – even their own residents. As for anyone who had entered within those 48 hours are being followed up and directed to take a test and quarantine.
Also we are banned from travelling overseas while anyone coming back has to spend 2 weeks in a hotel at their own expense – this being introduced in late March after a couple of weeks where we thought we could trust people to isolate at home and it turned out we couldn’t as cases kept rising.
I am taking bets. How many deaths per day will be recorded on dec/15 and on jan/15 from this hoax.
We are talking as reported, doesnt matter if you think they were not really due to covid.
I say 3000 by dec/15 and 4000 by jan/15.
This is a good time to make a plug for my viatical and life insurance busines. If you don’t mind dying by covid fairly soon and would like to leave something for your loved ones I would like to talk to you.
Spot on Kyle, I think you are right on. If the government were to mandate wearing red shirts on Fridays to scare off the virus, then people would do it. We have to learn how to live with it until the vaccine is distributed.
Wearing red shirts doesn’t stop the virus you moron. How are people so stupid? Maybe you should take trump’s approach and drinks some bleach
Mathew, you just lost a reader by posting this idiot on your blog…
I don’t like calling people ‘idiots’ and afford Kyle respect (or as much as I can muster), but honestly the only adjective I can use to describe this article is tone-deaf.
I get that this is a hard time for all of us and sometimes we need to blow off steam. But ranting so unintelligibly about Biden/Harris is low, and really degrades the quality of this blog
Matthew always comes across as measured and thoughtful, even if I don’t agree with him. Same can’t be said for Mr. Stewart.
@Matthew, I expected better from your secondary contributor. He even posted an article saying coronavirus is fake long ago. Even if he later issued an apology, someone who writes entire posts that blatantly contradict statements from health officials — people with MD degrees — shouldn’t have a place in your otherwise excellent blog.
@Kyle, go to a country that is handling the virus well, such as Singapore or China. Perhaps your tone would change if you or someone close to you were affected by the virus.
@A – I can’t speak for Matthew (though I did read your comment to him, I hope that’s not against the rules) – could you post a link where I claimed the coronavirus is fake? If it is, I will gladly retract it. But that didn’t happen and you know it.
So today you rail against Disney from going to 35% capacity but any sort of preventive measures is unconstitutional. I know science is optional at the moment but I wish this blog would do better.
I love how anyone with an iPad can be a “travel writer”. Hopefully you’re a better travel agent does than travel writer.
@Shaun – It’s almost like someone can have more than one train of thought. As if they could both think that Disney is making a poor marketing decision but also not want to sit at home for another six months. To be clear, writing a travel blog would be torture.
It’s not a “train of thought.,” it is your opinion. You stated in one piece that Disney was being irresponsible for adding capacity. Yet here you are stating that this is all an overreaction.
Let me clarify, Jack because that’s a fair point. I think that Disney picked a bad time to expand and was tone-deaf both the infection increase and with respect to the 28,000 cast members they laid off (both listed in that post.) I also stated that while the new administration has reported they will, then they won’t issue a lockdown (on a national level) that it’s actually my state that I am more concerned about. I also stated that I don’t mind sensible policies but that Pennsylvania has made maddeningly stupid choices (such as allowing in 200,000 through PIT alone in June but not allowing 100 daily tested, protocol-following baseball players in a stadium that doesn’t even host fans.) For that, I am not interested in sticking around even as the virus appears to be less lethal weekly.
I believe your reply is tone deaf with respect to the number of deaths that will come
From the increase in cases. If it’s so much better in another country, no one is stopping you.
Also (and I digress), the State of PA should not allow the Pirates to have fans in the stadium to the stopping trading decent players for minor leaguers and money. And I say that as a Pirates “fan”.
You seem to have many trains of thought, Kyle. None of them very good. Maybe you need to focus more.
A lot of people have already pointed out how dumb you come across so I’ll skip it. It’s easy to see why Matthew hired you. You’re basically a fake news outlet at this point.
Glad you skipped it.
Ignore all the envious people that can’t escape lockdown. That is my plan too. There are a lot of nice villas to rent in Costa Rica- we are staying in one now…
One of the stupiest articles I’ve almost read, I couldn’t stand it somewhere around the middle, and gives a Completely assinine perspective on the pandemic. It’s no wonder we are in dire straits with people espousing your views. But of course you’ll gladly escape a much delayed lockdown rather than be part of the solution. Stay home as much as possible, no group get-togethers, wash your hands and wear a damned mask! That’s too much to ask to save tens of thousands of lives? If so, maybe you should leave the country, permanently.
Inconclusive results due to increased testing? What planet do you live on? Yes, tests are up, but not even up to one-third of where they should be. But positive results are up way way way beyond the level of increased testing. Positivity rates here in Minnesota reached over 30% with testing up 12% a couple of weeks ago. What does that tell you?
I could delve deeper into your warped processing of what we need to do, but know without a doubt that anything Joe Biden and his extensive team of experts, not Dr. Atlas and Mike Pence, will be far more succesful that the joke of a group that have led us to be the world leader in COVID19 infections, and deaths.
Have I said how stupid your article, well, at least half of it is?
Mr. Friedman: Thank you for writing and (at your own admission) almost reading the piece.
Let’s just explore what you’re suggesting here further. You’re not claiming that more people than are being reported are dying of COVID-19, but you are suggesting that the increased testing is insufficient. If in the last reported complete week by the CDC (linked in the post – that’s what it means when the text is in another color) held a mortality rate of 0.334%, then since we don’t have any more fatalities but we would have 3x the infections (“Yes, tests are up, but not even up to one-third of where they should be”), the mortality rate of the virus across all groups would fall to 0.11% (showing my math, 0.334 current mortality rate divided by 3x as many tests but not more fatalities.)
That means that across all cases, the extreme, the mild, the vulnerable and the less vulnerable, the survival rate of the virus would rise from the current level of 97.8% to 99.89%. And again, even further testing would push it below that. How does that strengthen your argument that not enough is already being done?
And America breathes a sigh of relief…
We do not know what Biden will do as he can’t remember what he has said a minute ago…. Brilliant voters..what have you done to America electing the guy with Dementia…
@dee
Please stop the snowflakery and admit you lost.
Right wing snowflakes are really the worst kind.
Honestly Kyle, and I’m not kidding or trying to be a D-Bag, it would be interesting to see a blog post about somebody actually leaving the USA for greener pastures. It’s a common threat that is rarely carried through.
A Biden win makes that threat a bit less common than had his opponent won, but people are entitled to their views.
I think a national lockdown is unlikely, but if that’s your fear, you’ve got options. Unfortunately here in Austin, testing still takes a while. I made a reservation on Thursday, tested yesterday, and don’t expect my results until Wednesday. I hope we can improve that turnaround time soon.
To be clear, I’m saying that if there is a national lockdown (or a further one in my home state) I would leave. That’s not based on the election results, and I also pointed out that despite initial posturing, based on this 5-6 links included in a four-sentence segment on the President-elect’s position on the matter, that the new administration will materially divert from the previous administration’s approach.
But to be fair, I have already vacated my home state and may not return for some time. We will see.
You’re right dee, the President is terrible about slurring his words!!! He really can’t be trusted.
@UA-NYC – How. Did. You. Do. This? I write for this blog and a number of others all on WordPress and I have no idea how you embedded a video. I don’t care what the video says or doesn’t say – I’m flat out in awe that you were able to embed it.
Spill your secrets, you have my 100% undivided attention.
I think you misunderstood the article you linked about flu mortality rate (“Trends in Recorded Influenza Mortality: United States, 1900–2004”). The article says “[a]n overall and substantial decline in influenza-classed mortality was observed during the 20th century, from an average seasonal rate of 10.2 deaths per 100 000 population in the 1940s to 0.56 per 100 000 by the 1990s.” That means in the 1990’s there were 0.56 deaths per 100,000 people in the entire country, not among those who were infected. The mortality rate for people infected with the flu is typically around 0.1%. For example, in the 2018-2019 flu season, the CDC estimated 35,520,883 people were infected (symptomatic illnesses) and 34,157 died, 34,157/35,520,883 = 0.096%. (Data from “Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season” published by the CDC.)
You also suggested that the COVID-19 effective mortality rate is 0.348%, but your analysis isn’t very rigorous. Deaths lag infections, so you’d really need to look at the death rate a few weeks after the infections to get a true picture. Even so, at 0.348%, the COVID-19 mortality rate is about 3.5 times that of the flu in a typical year.
Your misunderstanding of what you were reading demonstrates why we should trust scientists and not bloggers.
@Ed – Excellent analysis. I also recognize (and have stated elsewhere in the comments) that deaths will trail these numbers, therefore, increasing the confirmed mortality rate. Though in saying such, there are also those who will not or have not been tested but have the virus that recovered or never exhibited symptoms but then does not contribute to the recovery rate. We also could both likely agree that both some deaths are being counted as COVID-19 because they have it, but may not have been the reason that the person died.
I’d ask you this, can you provide what you believe to be the current mortality of the virus in the US? Not the historical, but the current. Plenty of commenters have stated their displeasure with “bad math”, you, sir, offer the most detailed analysis. But I still have yet to find anyone willing to commit to a number and welcome it.
At a raw level, there have been 11 million cases in the US and 246 thousand deaths, or a death rate of about 2.2%. However, as you suggested, the death rate has been going down over time. Looking at the charts in the CDC COVIDView Weekly Summary, it looks like deaths lag infections by about 2 or 3 weeks (based on an eyeball estimate of the delay between the “percent positive” peak and the “percent of deaths” peak in the National COVID-19 Activity Indicators chart), so we can calculate a death rate by using the number of infections 2 or 3 weeks ahead of the deaths.
The following numbers come from the CDC’s “Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)” and the “Trends in Number of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US Reported to CDC, by State/Territory”. Note that the most recent weekly numbers are often revised upward as some states do not report deaths in a timely manner. (For example, the 1,143 number you quoted for deaths for 11/7 has been revised to 2,360 as of 11/16; it will likey be revised further upward). To combat this, I will use death rates from 10/31 (which should be stable by now) and infection rates from 10/17 and 10/10 (which represent 2 and 3 weeks lag from infection to death). Note that the “Trends” data also reports the number of deaths, but the value seems to be higher than the value in the “Provisional Deaths” report. I haven’t dug through the details to determine why, but to provide a conservative death rate estimate I’ve used the lower value from the Provisional Deaths report. Also note that the “new cases” number in the “Trends” data is not the same as the number of positive tests in the COVIDView weekly report. (The number of positive tests is based on public health labs and “a subset of clinical and commercial laboratories”, so it does not represent all tests performed during the week and is only useful in computing the positivity rate.) It’s also not entirely clear if “new cases” means “symptomatic cases”, and thus can be compared directly with the flu. There are probably some asymptomatic cases that get caught through testing (for example, by testing people who were potentially exposed but not presenting symptoms), but I’d guess the vast majority of “new cases” are in fact people presenting with symptoms.
For the week ending Oct 31 there were 4,491 deaths. For the week ending Oct 17 there were 386,624 new cases. For the week ending Oct 10 there were 334,908 new cases. So, the death rate was likely somewhere between 4491/386,624 = 1.16% and 4491/334,908 = 1.34%.
So, the recent death rate from COVID-19 is still over 1% making it at least 10 times deadlier than the flu.
I think you have compiled a great number here and have amended the post to reflect it. The problem that remains is the asymptomatic and the untested population. If someone has COVID-19 and never gets tested because their symptoms are mild (many symptoms mirror the flu) or they never get any symptoms at all – their numbers should be counted but can’t be ascertained. For example, if that number is just 50% more than the current rate it would lower mortality to 0.7% (using your approximate numbers.) If the number of asymptomatic and never tested is actually 10 million, the mortality drops to 0.55%, etc. The more testing and positives that come through, the less lethal it becomes. Thus, less need for a lockdown at all, right?
If we’re comparing the COVID-19 death rate to the CDC death rate for the flu, which is based on symptomatic cases, then we must only include symptomatic COVID-19 cases. Any asymptomatic “new cases” actually worsen the COVID-19 death rate. For example, let’s use the Oct 31 COVID-19 deaths of 4,491 and the Oct 17 “new cases” of 386,624. If half of those new cases were asymptomatic, then the symptomatic death rate would double to 4491/(386624/2) = 2.32%. In other words, in this example, 2.32% of the people who exhibit COVID-19 symptoms will die. The death rate I calculated earlier (1.16%) represents a best-case scenario when all of the new cases are symptomatic.
But what about asymptomatic COVID-19 cases that are never detected? Well, many asymptomatic flu cases are not detected either. According to one study (“The fraction of influenza virus infections that are asymptomatic: a systematic review and meta-analysis”), somewhere between 4% and 28% of flu cases are asymptomatic, and those cases are not included in the flu death rate. If we want to compute the death rate for all infections (symptomatic and asymptomatic), then we just adjust by the percentage of cases that are asymptomatic. The problem is that there isn’t agreement yet on how many COVID-19 cases are asymptomatic, and the estimates aren’t even close, ranging from 7% to over 80% depending on the study. One meta-analysis simply averaged all the studies and came up with a value 0f about 20%. If that’s the case, then the asymptomatic rate is probably pretty close to that of the flu (which averages to about 16% according to the paper referenced above), and the earlier analysis showing COVID-19 being 10 times deadlier still stands.
If the COVID-19 asyptomatic rate is higher than 20%, then the death rate will be reduced. I’m not going to show my math here because it’s a lot to type, but my back-of-the-envelope calculations show that a 50% asymptomatic rate would make COVID-19 about 7 times deadlier than the flu based on current data. At 64% it’s 5 times deadlier. At 92% it’s the same as the flu (a 92% asymptomatic rate is extremely unlikely; I’m just using it to show how far it would have to go to be comparable to the flu.)
One thing to remember is that the flu is somewhat limited in the absolute number of people it can kill. For example, in 2019 only 35 million people in the US had symptoms. Presumably the other 290 million people were not affected due to a combination of vaccines, natural immunity (maybe from previous infections), asymptomatic illness, or other factors. Thus, at a 0.1% symptomatic death rate it couldn’t kill more than 35,000 people. If unchecked, COVID-19 would very quickly infect nearly everyone. Assuming 90% infection is required for herd immunity, then 0.9 * 330 million = 297 million people would be infected. If 75% are asymptomatic, then 74 million would have symptoms. Assuming earlier calculations were correct, 1.16% of those would die, or about 860,000 deaths. And that’s a very conservative estimate. It could easily be twice or three times that number.
Croatia is as “red” as most of Europe when it comes to Covid-19. They are having some 2000-3000 infections a day and growing, which is a lot of a country of 4.2 million people.
Compare e.g. to Sweden with 10.4 million and about 4000 infections, or Finland with 5.5 million and about 200 infections a day.
They may not be in lockdown, at least for now, but they are taking measures to control the situation; https://www.croatiaweek.com/croatia-announces-new-covid-measures/
What I find interesting is that your post does not touch upon the ridiculously high hospitalisation rates where some states have even started sending people home as they dont have beds available due to the increase in cases.
Are the healthcare staff who have been on the frontline just a bunch of clowns that they have to keep dealing with the stupid decisions of their own countrymen.
Youre welcome to fly anywhere else, but the way that lockdowns are being reimposed worldwide shows that they work. Would you rather people die as there arent any hospital beds for them>?
@747always – You’ve always been a great supporter, reader and commenter so I wanted to look into the claims you made.
I did look into the “turning away” due to lack of beds and found just two articles (and several repeating the same story on a different outlet as is common with syndicated stories). The first was in Houston where one hospital was close to capacity but not yet met nor exceeded capacity, others in the region still had plenty of space. People weren’t being turned away from care, they were being diverted from a specific hospital to another hospital. The same was true in the Kansas City case. https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/10/houston-coronavirus-emergency-rooms/
In the Kansas City case, the concern was that the levels had reached flu levels outside of a traditional flu season, “Peak flu season is always our busiest time of the year. We have a lot of sick patients and our volumes are a lot higher,” Larsen said. “The volumes that we’re seeing at this moment are very similar to what we see, typically, in January or February. If we’re already at that level and we have this large influx of influenza patients — as we typically do — where will we take care of all these patients?” One of those “full” hospitals which had not turned away patients had 85 instead of the normal 63 patients. Maybe you see that as more alarming than I do. The administrator was worried that the facility would be pushed to the brink, but not that it had been exceeded and people are being turned away entirely. https://abcnews.go.com/US/kansas-city-hospitals-overwhelmed-forced-turn-ambulances-covid/story?id=73653825
You also say that lockdowns worldwide show that they work. But the UK, Germany, France, and Italy have re-entered lockdown after some of the most stringent measures in the world. If the lockdowns work, why are they re-entering them?
Hey Kyle, sorry for the delayed reply, but thankfully have been busy with work. Which is a blessing at this crazy time.
The thing is that lockdowns do work. The problems arose because a lot of countries like the UK, France, etc did not have mask mandates when they reopened their economies. Thats not to absolve the citizens of those countries who ended up not practising basic precautions post lockdown being lifted.
Im not even getting into the joke that is the UKs “14 day quarantine” program for travellers which is not enforced, thus allowing new cases of Covid to enter their country.
I know this is not the most coherent reply, but have been typing this in the middle of drafting various emails.
The facts tell us that practising some basic precautions can help keep us safe. What are those?
1. Wearing a mask as soon as youre out of your house.
2. Dont do unsafe things : Eg, going out to a restaurant for dinner, or going to friends & families houses is inherently unsafe. I manage largfe residential complexes for a living and I know of 30 cases which have originated from one Covid positive guest visiting a flat for a party. I have met my parents once since March even though they live in the same city. I did this because as part of my job I have been stepping out of the house since March and did not want to unintentionally infect my parents
3. Bombay had the largest case load at one point, but now Delhi is the new Coronavirus hotspot because the government opened everything up, and people behaved irresponsibly by crowding bars and liquor shops. Anecodtally in Bombay mask compliance is approx 80 – 85%. Its not perfect, but its a lot better than nothing.
I did read the articles you posted, and I stand corrected on the point of turning people away, but the fact remains that Flu season is here, and the combined burden of flu and Covid has the potential to really burden the hospitals.
The final risk is that if you escape to another country, who says that you wont suddenly enter into a lockdown there if Covid cases increase?
I didn’t think much could shock me, and then I read this article. Wow. Hey, Matthew Klint, show your mother this one and tell her this blog is what you created with your life and your JD.
Kyle, I won’t repeat all the errors in your numbers that many commentators have pointed out above, since you don’t seem to be very receptive to learning from criticism. But I will just say, if your grasp of the numbers are as weak as your posts indicate, if your research is as sloppy as evidenced by your articles, then as a scientist I will never, ever book with your travel agency. I simply won’t trust you to handle anything but the most mainstream, most mundane, most boring, and simplest itineraries.
Oops, I meant, “if your grasp of the numbers IS”
@O.K. – I have seen plenty of comments that suggest the rolling numbers will get worse and I have addressed that the mortality rate will likely rise as the infected recover or do not. But for everyone who seems to have a better grasp on the current (not historical) mortality rate, not a single number has been submitted. We know that it’s far lower now than it was in the beginning and that’s been clear over the last two months. So if my number of 0.348% mortality is wrong, but so is the historical mortality rate of (now) 2.2% – then what’s the number?
Kyle, with due respect, it’s not the readers’ job to do research on this, but it *is* your job to do research on the scientific literature before you write blog posts that can potentially misinform readers about their risks.
There are in fact studies that tried to nail down the true mortality rate for all infected patients throughout the entire pandemic. Even back in March when we were staring at a 4% case fatality rate (mortality among identified patients, which is obviously much higher due to lack of testing, as you point out), the scientific community around me were passing around analyses that showed that the true infection fatality rate was around 0.9~1.8% (this was done by looking at limited populations where we did have near-universal testing, such as cruise ships and South Korea). As you note, that rate has come down over time, and this is due to a combination of better treatment (e.g. dexamethasone), less overwhelmed hospitals, less vulnerable populations getting infected over time (obviously the most susceptible get infected first), and maybe possibly a slight mutation in the virus to make it more contagious but less lethal (the evidence for the last one is not very strong). During the summer, the best estimates for the true infection fatality rates were around 0.6~1.2%, based on wide-ranging studies of people who had antibodies and trying to infer how many had been infected but survived without ever being diagnosed (the CDC published numbers that were a bit lower than this, but the vast majority of global experts thought the CDC estimates carried a slight bias towards the lower end, including the top experts in the U.S.). The mortality rate for this latest surge is still to be determined, but as many commentators have noted above, the mortality rate is heavily dependent on treatment options, and it can easily increase by a factor of 2.5~4.5 if hospitals get overrun and people do not receive adequate treatment, which is where we are clearly headed right now.
There are also ways to infer the true rate of infections, both old and new. This includes a complicated Bayesian statistical analysis that takes into account the availability of testing at the time, what percentage of people tested were showing symptoms versus randomly screened, what percentage of people tested returned positive results, changing percentages of asymptomatic patients as different populations get infected, the increased death count three weeks later (corrected for unidentified COVID-19 cases and the declining mortality rate over time), the prevalence of antibodies (for past infections), etc etc. These very sophisticated analyses are all out there, if you actually wanted to look them up. A few weeks ago, we could in fact claim that we might not yet have reached the true rate of infections that we saw around the lockdowns in April because we were testing a lot more people. Now, it is incontrovertibly many, many times worse.
I will admit, us scientists have not done a good enough job communicating all this research to laypersons. While I have many colleagues leading the COVID-19 response on the front lines (including government agencies, research institutions, pharma companies, and even the FAA), I myself am not an epidemiologist or a public health expert, so I don’t consider it my place to speak much about their research. But perhaps I should, because those who are doing the research are often too busy to communicate their results. There are a handful of really good science reporters who did their jobs well, but their articles got buried in a sea of much more sensationalist clickbait opinion pieces. I hope you will not contribute to that problem, and I will myself try to do better sharing accurate information.
Oh, one more thing: the flu mortality you cited is for *identified* cases. Just like it is hard to get the true mortality rate for COVID-19 due to the large number of unidentified cases, it is also very hard to get the true number for the flu. But the best estimates in the scientific community range around 0.05~0.1%, so it is reasonable to say that even the lowest mortality rate for COVID-19 seen in recent months is roughly 10 times higher than the flu (or if you want to cherry-pick the most favorable end of the range, maybe 5 times worse than the flu).
If you leave will you and Matthew please take the blog with you? We’re tired of your whining and entitled posts. Matthew seems to be even worse than you
We didn’t break down your door and shout our posts to you, you came here and read them. If they aren’t for you, we’re sorry to see you go, but you chose to read them.
Excellent article, Kyle.
Many of the misguided campaign promises of mandates are frightening. Luckily, my governor has handled this as well as possible with practical recommendations but no forced mask mandates or extensive lockdowns. Mental health and financial health must be given their due diligence.
I have contended that the virus reaction has been mishandled from day one and we should have never had the first ‘lockdown’. Reasonable public mask wear *might* help and maybe not asking too much in crowded situations. Honest initial communication about the use of masks by our supposed experts would have gone a long way toward compliance, I believe. But shutting down a civilization for anything close to this was a gross overreaction. We are afforded an immune system for a reason. I can only hope that much of the rhetoric from our president-elect and his crew was just election showboating and they will take a more metered response.
Frankly, your governor is not “handling this as well as possible” if they don’t have a mask mandate. It’s not treading on your precious freedom, nor is it tyranny…it’s a tiny thing w/high ROI we can all do to help each other out.
This is simply not factual. Poster “Ed” above explains why. The question remains why you are so beholden to a political point of view that you let your biases blind you? We all do that. But typically, in a professional setting, which is what this is for you, one would pause and think and consider how biases might be influencing content before hitting the “submit post” button. You are not an epidemiologist or biologist or any kind of scientist or doctor. Stop playing one on the internet. Stick to your area of expertise. Why is it so difficult for people to refrain from commenting on subjects with which they have no expertise?
@Jay – Thanks for reading and for commenting. 1) I agree, Ed provided some salient points and you’ll notice, the only other number for current mortality other than my own. We all agree that the historical 2%+ is no longer accurate, and I give disclosures that more deaths will roll on afterward, but Ed is the sole commenter that has offered a measured number other than just whining that it was “bad math” but offering nothing to counter it. I thought so highly of Ed’s number that I amended the post to use his number – I’m not sure how much higher praise I can offer than to use his as the “better” number over mine. If you have a number you’d like to offer, show your work and maybe it will replace Ed’s number.
2) The second part is really, really weak. This logic suggests that only an accountant can inform you whether you’re rich or poor, only a chef whether a cheeseburger is cooked properly, only a mechanic whether a car is getting the appropriate gas mileage. You can use the resources available (such as Johns Hopkins) and a calculator to posit a conclusion just as you can tell when your cheeseburger is burnt or raw and whether your car is really getting 26 miles to the gallon in the city on your next fill up. To suggest that only epidemiologists can make conclusions about math because it’s a health topic is absurd. I’m not suggesting how to combat the virus nor recommending treatment options – that would be way out of my lane. I’m stating that the virus, while infections are spreading, is becoming increasingly lethal and that lockdown efforts (like the ones made in PA) are misguided and ridiculous and I won’t hang around for a new lockdown. I will instead travel.