Demand for airline tickets on flights between Canada to the USA has collapsed, with forward bookings down as much as 75% as an ongoing trade war between the United States and Canada shows no signs of slowing down.
Airline Demand Collapses Between Canada And USA
I highlighted recent statements from United CEO Scott Kirby noting that demand between Canada and the USA has been particularly impacted amid a broader story of weaker demand to the United States, but we are now seeing just how steep the decline in demand is in transborder traffic.
Aviation analytics company OAG published a report highlighting just how much demand has dropped. The table below highlights 2024 versus 2025 numbers for the summer season:
|
Month of Booking |
April |
May |
June |
July |
August |
Sept |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
March 2024 |
1,218,570 |
817,912 |
649,878 |
516,344 |
370,228 |
233,160 |
|
March 2025 |
295,982 |
226,980 |
184,720 |
147,679 |
103,914 |
65,680 |
|
% Change |
-75.7% |
-72.2% |
-71.6% |
-71.4% |
-71.9% |
-71.8% |
As OAG notes, “The decline is striking — bookings are down by over 70% in every month through to the end of September. This sharp drop suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute.”
It is not clear how much of an imbalance there is between falling demand from Canada to the USA versus trips to Canada originating in the USA. It is also not clear whether some of this steep decline is offset by last-minute ticket purchases, with some taking a “wait and see” approach and coming at the last minute, despite misgivings (for example, so many Canadians have winter homes in Arizona or Florida).
You can draw your own conclusions about what is causing this, but airlines are responding by slashing schedules, with the number of seats for sale down as much as 3.5% during the busiest August summer travel period. WestJet is attempting to add more service to Europe at the last minute while Air Canada has struggled to add alternate routes (which is understandable for a larger network carrier that already serves most major markets in Europe).
CONCLUSION
Demand for airline tickets between Canada and the USA has collapsed, with steep declines of over 70% forecast through autumn. This is a striking case study and begs the question, will we see the same thing from Europe?
This is GOOD!
America has enough socialists in it already, we can keep our friends to the North out for a while.
Their government is fascist and awful. We don’t need those people in the USA right now
Are they socialists or fascists?
Because of idiots like you, this fascist United States is headed straight for decline and isolationism.
I feel sorry for more than half of Americans who are good people.
Not enough of them voted though, which led us to where we are now.
Socialism and fascism are complete opposites (one is extreme left and one is extreme right)! You gotta pick one! Unless you don’t know the difference between them and just want to peddle talking points.
Psst… I think Don left the “Jr.” out of his name so trying to explain diametrically opposite philosophies would require a doubling of IQ points.
I thought this blog was about travel and mileage tips, not about political and anti American statements. Sad. Very sad. Dude, re-focus on what you are good at.
What are you talking about? You think this story is not about travel? What is anti-American about anything that I wrote in my story above? Do you have regrets over who you voted for?
Lol. See it like they want to see it, Matthew.
there was nothing political about this…data is data and I know MAGA Cultist suffer when they can’t tell you that 1+2=7 and you don’t believe them. Mathew just pointed out the hard data. You can decide what that means because unlike Dear Leader, Mathew is letting you draw your own conclusions
Just like telling the progs that men can’t get pregnant.
No one wants to travel to a evil country who bullies former friends and also risk being deported, handcuffed and treated like an animal if the immigration officer is having a bad day or is a brainless MAGA.
Canada is no friend of America. Canadians have hated Americans for decades. They are very jealous that prices are lower in the US and fellow Canadians rip each other off constantly with high prices.
If you have Covid in British Columbia, you are banned from getting Paxlovid unless you’re something like 60 years old because they are cheapskates. You cannot even privately pay for it. It is banned. Private medicine and privately paid office visits are banned in British Columbia. You must go on a waiting list (or with Paxlovid, be banned from buying it unless you are old). Same with Ibrance, a drug for metastatic breast cancer. You just die. Canada is a crazy country, full of hatred and denial of health care.
That’s true, Derek. It must be a real hell to live in a country with good and free public healthcare. So communist!
Dave, my favorite foods are beans with meat. Cassoulet, Fabada Asturiana, Feijoada, Chili with beans, etc. You can call me a beaner without a problem, but I don’t know where you got the idea that I’m Hispanic.
But I’m sure you’re a brainless racist, proud of your stupidity.
Love!
Hey derek- where are you getting your info? Ibrance (also called palbociclib) is most certainly covered in Canada. So are its’ competitor drugs (abemaciclib, etc) that are therapeutically similar and pretty much interchangeable. They are approved for some uses and not others (i.e. just like in the US), so they’re not used in every patient, but they are available!
So no, you don’t just get “left for dead.” Might wanna check your facts. You’re either lying or just willfully ignorant. Certainly you’re unfamiliar with these drugs and don’t really know what they are.
It’s getting exhausting dealing with this- certain “elements” feel free to just make this stuff up, lie. or repeat things they haven’t fact checked. Seriously, how many times do you have to get bad infomration before changing your sources of information?
Even the CBC News shows that Canadian health care for cancer is garbage]
]
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/a-tale-of-2-friends-with-breast-cancer-1-has-coverage-for-costly-drug-the-other-forced-to-pay-1.4495123
A tale of 2 friends with breast cancer;
Two women say their cases challenge commonly held belief that B.C. is the gold standard for cancer treatment
Karen McLaren, 42, and Ashley McDonald, 38, have a lot in common.
The two friends attended Terry Fox Secondary School in Port Coquitlam, B.C., and worked together at Milestones restaurant in their early 20s.
When they were diagnosed with breast cancer as young women, they underwent mastectomies and gruelling rounds of chemotherapy.
They both thought that cancer was gone — only to have it reappear years later in different parts of their bodies.
That’s where their stories diverge.
McDonald, who is a dual citizen of the U.S. and Canada and receives medical coverage through her employer, a major American airline, was put on a drug called Ibrance, which put her into remission.
McLaren, who has extended Canadian medical coverage, has run out of treatment options. Her body is no longer responding to chemotherapy.
She doesn’t have coverage for the drug that saved McDonald. Ibrance isn’t on the list of drugs covered by BC PharmaCare, the program that helps B.C. residents with the cost of eligible prescription drugs, nor is it covered elsewhere in the provincial Medical Services Plan.
The friends say their cases highlight the disparity in treatment options for women with metastatic breast cancer in the U.S. and Canada. They say their cases also challenge a commonly held belief that B.C. is the gold standard for cancer treatment in the country.
Ummm– derek- that’s an article from 2018. A little out of date you yahoo. These drugs are currently used in Canada. And covered. As per the article you sited from SEVEN (!) years ago, it was reviewed… and subsequently approved.
So thanks for proving my point that you have to be debunked…. AGAIN. Just because you didn’t actually go to the primary source, but a seven year old secondhand source, not the actual government of Canada approval data. So please, cut it out when you don’t actually know what you’re talking about.
Sorry that doesn’t fit your narrative but you are demonstrably, factually WRONG with what you posted.
Hey RPC, that explains your support for Hitler as it was many years ago, according to your logic (or lack of logic). Hitler hasn’t done anything bad in almost 80 years!
Canadian health care is crap.
Another example. In BC, Paxlovid is banned unless you are 60 years old. You can’t buy it yourself even if your doctor writes a prescription and are willing to pay for it. The government health plan won’t allow it.
If the waiting list is too long for cataract surgery, you are banned from paying privately. You just have to wait or go to the USA.
If you dispute this, find an article that says differently.
Canada is a crappy country. Even in airports, they don’t trust you so you must show ID at the gate. That is because of massive dishonesty among Canadians.
Hey yahoo RPC, Ibance is still not widely available in BC (Vancouver). There are so many restrictions and red tape because BC is too cheap, the government bureaucrats rather that you die than pay for it. http://www.bccancer.bc.ca/chemotherapy-protocols-site/Documents/Breast/BRAVPALAI_Protocol.pdf
Um- derek- again, you don’t know enough to know how ignorant you are. Those “restrictions” on the BC source you cited are the exact same restrictions as in the US. It’s called the indication for the drug. Just like the FDA approval and US coverage. If you actually knew anything about medicine, you’d have recognized that. So nice try.
Don’t know about your rant for your hero Hitler either. Your other citation being 7 years old is relevant because these drugs were all under review (here too, especially with private insurance) as more data was released. It’s how science and medical approvals work. You actually have to have the studies all come out and review for policy approval first. But you wouldn’t know that, would you?
So no, you are still wrong. As cited. So just stop, before you show more proof about how ignorant you are.
RPC, medical care in Canada is just crap. That is because politicians always underfund universal health care in every country. You are wrong about indications. Ibrance was approved in Canada but in BC you could not get it due to politicians’ funding restrictions. Same with needed surgery. Have to wait and are banned to pay for it yourself….just suffer with everyone else.
…and stop using logic that supports Hitler (saying the Ibrance ban was 7 years ago, well Hitler didn’t do anything bad for more than 70 years)
Seriously, you are out of your element. Just stop . It’s getting embarrassing for you.
You cited a paper that is actually the proof that ibrance is covered in Canada, same as US, and has been for years. And then made a point that several years ago it wasn’t covered. Ibrance wasn’t covered in the US much before that, either genius. (And by the way, please produce a research paper that shows that ibrance extends lifespan (what’s called “overall survival”)…. Little hint- you can’t, because it hasn’t been shown to do so).
The US and Canadian systems are set differently, but characterizing the system as garbage and trying to kill people is silly. The canadian system does a more rigorous data (and cost effectiveness) review before approving drugs and procedures – actually a better job. And as an example, for ibrance it’s about $4000/ month in the US, $500/ month in Canada. So which country just wants to let you die for money?
The US does have some of the highest cancer survival rates in the world. Pretty similar in absolute numbers (although numerically slightly higher) than Norway, Sweden, France… And Canada.
And the US has one of the highest cancer rates in the world- so slightly better at treating cancer, but far more likely to get it. Not really winning, are we? I’d rather not have the cancer in the first place.
And don’t to pull ” if you correct for obesity” silliness. Yes , US numbers look better if you exclude all the sick people!
If you don’t like wait times, hang on to your hat if you’re in the US, it’s getting worse here. Please, call a rheumatologist or endocrinologist today and ask for an appointment and tell me how long it’s going to be.
So fine if you don’t like the Canadian system, but their people live longer and get less cancer than us, and pay less than us, by a huge margin. Your characterizing the system as trying to kill people betrayal and ignorance of how the system actually works there and here.
Nobody can claim the US system is great, either. Nobody is going to argue that UK Canada Australia shouldn’t be better funded but that’s not the argument.
So enough of you. And good luck to you
Yes derek. Healthcare is so bad in Canada that their life expectancy is only 3.9 years longer than ours.
Not true if you adjust it for obesity (average person in Vancouver is not so obese like in Jackson, Mississippi) and guns. Cancer survival rate in the US is far higher than Western Europe and even Canada.
Breast cancer survival rate in the U.S. is #2 in the world (Cyprus is #1). Canada is not even in the top 10. That is because Canada is great to get a free annual check up but terrible at everything else, like when you are sick.
Yes higher. Far higher? Your argument will be stronger if you add more numbers and proof. I can’t wait for you to educate us.
Please. list the exact numbers for cancer incidence and mortality and the distribution across counties worldwide, and adjust for statistically significant differences. Actual. Real. Numbers. For all diagnoses, not just one or two.
Or….crickets?
Only criminal Beaners are being targeted and only lunatics don’t think it’s a good thing. I’m guessing you are a “decent” Hispanic and don’t want these people back either and is why you are so upset about it. Which I semi understand because hard working Hispanics here voted for Trump because they are sick of the open borders as well.
Not all Hispanics are bad, the local taco guy makes wonderful food. And there is a jockey at Tampa Bay Downs who constantly makes me money.
That makes complete sense until you actually think about it.
Look up why Germany has warned citizens against visiting the USA because of the stupid policies the orange clown has enacted.
Germany lost all rights to claim anything for 200 years after killing 6 million Jews.
We’re talking $20 billion spent in the US annually by Canadian tourism . That is nothing. I get the everyone hates Trump and anti U.S. sentiment. I can’t believe the price of plane tickets and hotels in mid April with Passover and Easter. If I could shift some of my trips sooner I would. There’s some deals out there.
It’s not nothing to the 100,000 people who will lose their jobs if 70% of Canadians decide not to come to the US.
A lot of Canadians have been secretly or mildly anti-American for decades. Their TV news shows, even before Trump, frequently took swipes at America. The reverse is not true. You don’t see NBC Lester Holt or ABC David Muir take swipes at Canada. The Canadian news media has whipped up the latent hatred of America causing the drop in bookings.
This shows that bookings are mainly Canadian and there’s not that much US originating traffic.
Trump should say “stop hating us or we will bomb you”. ha ha, just kidding. The truth of the matter is that Trump is not picking his battles wisely. The US gets raw materials that it needs from Canada, like lumber and some oil. Many Canadian products are more expensive so cannot sell in the US. The imbalance of steel sales isn’t that great.
We should not allow Canadians or other foreignrs to own winter homes In Fl and Az.It takes homes off the matket for Americans. Why should they be allowed to live here? Vacation yes, buy a residence-no.
The OAG sampling methodology is generating erroneous results. Transborder bookings are down but not by anything close to 70%.
The way I read it is that trips originating in Canada are down 70%, but that speaks to only one direction and with the strong dollar and also (perhpas?) some sympathy from some travelers, bookings are stable (or even up) in the other diretion?
What is the methodology? i cant find it…but i agree the working is quite interesting…
It says bookings made in march…..but then refers to forward bookings.etc.
I ask…what is the total Canada USA bookings YOY outlook….thats the easiest way to gage demand…
This is more about respecting our neighbors. Oddly ( to some ) there are things that scar trust and can undermine the best relationships. I think the current administration has done a great deal of damage.
If anyone thinks insults and threats promote cooperation you are wrong. Childish bullies are of that mindset. Whether it’s down 10% or 70+% it will likely get worse.
Woofing – much ado about nothing.
I love Canada and I hate this administration’s rhetoric against them. However you don’t need to look much further than some of the comments left above me to understand why demand is down. It’s a real shame. We should consider ourselves lucky to have the Great White North as our neighbor.
It’s Canada’s fault!
The U.S. declares an undeserved blitzkrieg trade war with Canada, one of our most beloved and staunch allies then threatens them with an actually war for no reason, then we’re surprised that Canadians don’t want to visit or wonder why sensible Americans might be reluctant to visit the nation we’re bullying. Who knew?
A 3 day old story. Told on every other travel blog before this one. What’s the point?
To rub your face in the crap you voted for. Every. Single. Day. This is just the start.
@cairns: Not everyone reads the other blogs.
Looks like lots of Americans have sour grapes. You elected a clown (more like clowns). Now expect a circus
Seriously, though: f*ck America. I wouldn’t buy a product made in America if the stores were giving them away as a freebie when you buy something else.
Nobody likes a bully, except for Americans it would seem.
I believe Air Canada have run a number of promotions of fares to Canada only, there’s no point in promting the opposite because no one wants to go there.
That said they have now returned to normal because Canadians don’t want people from the rogue state to the south arriving there.
Once again Matthew grabs at a BS statistic that has since been proven utterly wrong to further his agenda.
Care to fess up Matthew??
Still spreading fake news? 70%???
How many times do you need to be called out for this BS????
What are you talking about?
Matt, thanks for the article. The opening line is: “Demand for airline tickets on flights between Canada TO the USA has collapsed”. This makes it sound as if it’s mostly Canada TO US bookings that are down. However, later in the article details we find out “it is not clear how much of an imbalance there is” between flight bookings in either direction. It would be more accurate to say demand on flights between Canada AND the USA has collapsed. One word makes a difference. Thanks again-