Airfares are creeping up again as oil prices surge and uncertainty spreads across global energy markets. That leaves many travelers facing a familiar dilemma: book now before prices rise further, or wait and hope fares come down.
I’m currently facing that exact dilemma.
My Travel Dilemma: Book Now Or Wait?
Like many travelers, I’ve been watching airfare prices closely as oil prices spike amid growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. If Iran follows through on threats to mine the Strait of Hormuz, energy markets could become even more volatile, which would almost certainly push airfares higher. Fuel is one of the largest costs airlines face, and when oil prices surge, ticket prices usually follow. If oil remains elevated or climbs further, the relatively reasonable fares we are seeing today may not last long.
Which brings me to my current problem.
My Upcoming Travel Plans
I have two trips coming up that I need to finalize.
The first is a spring trip to Switzerland and Denmark that I was hoping to book using points. The second is a summer trip to Germany with my family.
Right now, economy fares for the Germany trip are hovering around $800 roundtrip per person. That’s not an amazing deal historically, but in the current environment it strikes me as reasonable.
Ordinarily I would try to book this sort of trip with miles. In recent months I’ve had good luck redeeming points through SAS EuroBonus. But award availability is unpredictable and finding space can be time-consuming. Even with tools like Seats.Aero, searching for the right flights, dates, and combinations of airlines can become a time sink.
What worries me is that airfare pricing could change quickly if fuel prices remain elevated. If oil stays 70% or more above last year’s levels, it’s not hard to imagine these $800 fares turning into $1,200 fares within weeks, or even days.
Airlines have already begun quietly raising fares and adding fuel surcharges in some markets. If the situation around the Strait of Hormuz deteriorates, that trend could accelerate. In that scenario, locking in a ticket now might look very smart in hindsight.
Why I’m Tempted To Just Pay Cash
There’s another reason I’m tempted to just book the flights now.
If I do purchase these tickets, it would give me an opportunity to review SWISS and Austrian Airlines in economy class. I tend to review premium cabins more often, but economy products are what most travelers actually fly. And frankly, my kids do not need to fly in business class. All they really care about is having a screen.
Still, I hesitate.
The biggest drawback of booking cheap economy tickets is the lack of flexibility. Points bookings tend to be far more forgiving. If plans change, it is often easy to cancel or redeposit miles with minimal penalties.
Cash fares, especially the cheaper ones like the “basic economy” tickets I am looking at, are often highly restricted. And right now the world feels even more unpredictable than usual. Between geopolitical tensions, rising inflation, and uncertainty across global markets, committing thousands of dollars to non-refundable airfare feels a little uncomfortable.
Still, I’m leaning toward booking the flights.
Spending $2,400 for three tickets isn’t ideal, but it may prove far better than paying $3,600 or more later if fuel prices continue to surge. At the same time, I still find myself refreshing award search tools, hoping that some attractive redemption option appears before I pull the trigger. It has consumed a fair amount of my time this week…
CONCLUSION
For many travelers right now, the question is simple but frustrating: book now or wait?
With oil prices rising and geopolitical tensions mounting, airfare could climb significantly in the months ahead. At the same time, committing to restrictive cash fares in an uncertain world isn’t particularly appealing either.
Like many of you, I find myself stuck between those two choices.
Would you book now or wait and hope for better fares or award space?
People don’t read YOUR blog for economy class reviews. Find some business class availability and book that for both trips.
They actually do…my economy class reviews do very well in terms of eyeballs.
Then the choice is clear.
Ignore Samantha! We read it all, Matt. Keep doing it all!
Matthew, I’m in a similar position. I need to pull the trigger on upcoming (May) travel to S.A. and have been watching airfares creep higher. However, I’m waiting for two reasons: I think it’s only a matter of time before system-wide chaos unfolds with the TSA/DHS no-payment situation (“partial shutdown”), which I predict will suppress demand and result in overall lower prices. Additionally, if this M.E. situation continues to go off the rails, I bet that there will be much less demand for international travel, with potential cancellations of travel already booked heading into the summer season (especially to Europe). This could also prompt airlines to lower ticket prices, simply to fill seats. But take what I’m saying with a grain of salt, because I’m not an economist…just making basic inferences.
I think you’re right on with your estimates. They’ll lower fares just to try to fill the planes in spring & summer.
Something that has worked for us over many years is to book our travel plans as soon as fares seem reasonable / what we consider reasonable value.
Just like the stock market it is very difficult to predict air fares no matter the destination.
Feels like you want to book a non-basic economy cash fare through United so that if you need to cancel you can get a trip credit on United for the value of the tickets, unless the regular economy fare is significantly more than $200 more than basic (to account for the basic economy cancellation fee).
It’s exactly $200, which strikes me as $800 thrown away (for the four of us) if we can stick to these travel dates.
Gosh, I could hold out for SAS business class award space, which has always worked in the past, but I’m really unsure about what the next few months are going to look like…
What a coincidence! 🙂
You’re paying $800 for flexibility. If you’re not sure about the trip / dates / etc., book main economy today and lock it in. Set a google price alert. If things firm up and the flight is cheaper, switch the booking and enjoy your travel credit. Or if you find award space, cancel with United and enjoy a $4k travel credit. You’re going to use a United travel credit – prepaying for some United travel isn’t the end of the world for you, I wouldn’t think.
And the $800 is only because you presumably still have some United status (I know you dropped down from 1K but I forgot what to) and don’t have to worry about checked in bags/seats?
If it makes you feel any better (it probably won’t) you can book with Amex and get 5x / 4k points on that $800 which is $60-75 in value. So you’re really only paying $725 more?
Trumpflation…
Is America great again?
At least the great patriot Putin will be able to sell his oil to the USA again. The plan worked perfectly.
I saw that news and just shook my head. Unbelievable.
Reuters says someone hacked the Epstein files in 2023. I wonder if it was Russia, Israel, or both?
Personally I’m booking all anticipated travel as soon as possible (waiting for window to open to book return business class flights from India next February). I use miles for the vast majority of my flights so no downside to booking those (unless you go with Etihad or others that have cancellation penalties for award tickets). If fare goes down I cancel and rebook but have ultimate flexibility. I have booked a couple of cash flights but those are relatively low cost flights (like within Europe) and, worst case, I’m out $200-$300 which doesn’t really matter. I’ve always booked as far out as possible to lock in travel so the current situation doesn’t change my plans.
India, specifically, is hard hit by ME carriers being out of the running, so good luck with that… expect +$10Kpp in J.
“The man of decision cannot be stopped! The man of indecision cannot be started! Take your own choice.” – Napoleon Hill –
As you well know, in situations like these, acting as early as possible is usually the best course of action.
I’m in the exact same situation. Flying with my boy to the World Cup and am relying on points as per usual. But economy return flights via Fiji are less than $1k return. May have to just book and live with it.
Also I had a huge stash of AA simply miles points and they’re not almost gone. If you plump out for return SAS flights for the family often including day time flights you’ll burn them very quickly.
Flew SAS economy into Copenhagen in December,they are back to offering one complimentary alcoholic beverage with dinner service.However,immigration for non EU citizens on arrival was the longest line I’ve ever seen in my life.A last minute booking using avios in January on Iberia proved a winner in economy transatlantic,window and aisle to myself,not only was catering delicious,announcement was made more was available if anyone was still hungry.Crew was polite,professional.Austrian a few years back served the stingiest meal I’ve ever seen transatlantic.It was out of Ord and I doubt Do&Co was catering.
My OS flight would be out of LAX…hopefully it will be better. UA has very good catering, for economy, on West Coast – Europe flights.
Try not to be too stingy. Your family won’t thank you for subjecting them to a hellish airport like FRA for example, and the whole holiday could be spoiled if you encountered issues on a disorganized airline like AA.
In fact if you go for any US airline (or whatever other US corporation) you’ll be subjected to the prevailing attitude of utter contempt for the clientele – doubtless redoubled in the face of an inevitable upcoming profit-downturn for everyone.
If you’re headed to Basel fly Swiss
We will be flying LX and OS if I buy this. Last several trips have been on SK and all have been great. I won’t do LH economy…would rather do UA.
Will there be avgas by the time you travel is the bigger question
“But award availability is unpredictable and finding space can be time-consuming.”
Ummm… don’t you own an award booking service? If you can’t manage this than what hope do us mortals have?
Let me re-phrase: I obsess over award space and rather than let my software automatically check and give me reports, I manually check throughout the day, sometimes compulsively. Of course I’ll find the space if it is released, but it’s a big time drain because of the way I am wired.
I’m also in this boat. I already bought tickets to Germany in January and they were significantly more expensive already compared to years past.
Now I’ve got to book SFO-SIN and for that 17.5 hour ride I’m just not going in the back of the plane.
I guess if the price were to drop, I can try to rebook. I always worry that the space will disappear the minute I cancel the original. I’ve been told I can just ask for travel credit if the price drops – I’ve never had to do that before, but this time maybe so. Can you write a column about how one might handle ticket price drops?