It has been quite a week, hasn’t it?
My week started at Frequent Traveller University in Washington, DC followed by a pair of United flights from Washington National to Cape Town via Newark.
Less than a week later, the world has changed. The U.S. will no longer welcome most foreign nationals who have been in Europe. Airlines are feeling the heat like never before. And more close to home, people are panicking.
Store shelves are empty. We have no toilet paper at our house (thankfully we still have a good supply of baby wipes) and Amazon is backordered until May. Target? Wal-Mart? Costco? Grocery stores? All empty…and not just the toilet paper and paper towels. My wife sent me a picture last night of the meat section. It was empty! Americans appear to be bracing themselves for a long spring of isolation.
Whatever your politics, the Oval Office speech this week was not calming, it was frightening, if for nothing else than you could see the fear in the President’s eyes and tone. Markets reacted poorly and schools and businesses are shutting down. Even my church will not meet for the next three Sundays, respecting a plea from the California Governor that gatherings of 250 people or more be suspended.
I’m not afraid of novel coronavirus. It doesn’t kill healthy people like me. I think if Americans practice isolation when sick and proper hygiene, the spread of the virus will stop.
But I am concerned, deeply concerned, that much of the world is shutting down. Can the world economy handle such a shock? What happens when people are too afraid to step outside their homes?
I’m reminded of Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s 1933 inaugural address. The context: the Great Depression, was very different, and yet it bore similarities. It was worldwide. It made people afraid and sowed seeds of doubt in the ability of people and the government to address it.
Roosevelt said:
“This is preeminently the time to speak the truth, the whole truth, frankly and boldly. Nor need we shrink from honestly facing conditions in our country today. This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and vigor has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory. I am convinced that you will again give that support to leadership in these critical days.”
I see the same conditions at play with the COVID-19 crisis, particularly, nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.”
And yet the consequences of the pandemic have been rough. Very rough. Award Expert, my award consulting business has naturally taken a huge hit. Most of our time now is spent cancelling tickets, not booking tickets. Business has dried up.
My import/export business has also taken a beating, even as there is interest and opportunity in medical devices, masks, hand sanitizers (and apparently toilet paper…).
As I cut my trip short from Africa/Europe and return home today, I am quite conflicted. My mother, wife, and son have all come down with the flu…yes, I’m rushing home as fast as I can. Who knows if they have coronavirus because there are not adequate testing supplies available (I doubt it, though). There’s a certain irony that I’ve been traveling through Western Africa the week feeling great while my wife and son, safe at home, now are ill.
I shall be suspending all travel for the foreseeable future and working out of home for awhile. In-person social interactions will be limited or curtailed all together. There’s opportunity in that: a chance to spend time with my family and take care of long-neglected tasks around the house.
But I have to survive…and I don’t want to burn through money during this time. There are deals just waiting to be completed all over the world and to pass those by seems rather short-sighted. Nevertheless, business will be conducted via FaceTime Video or Skype. Phone calls will replace handshakes (actually, I’ve borrowed the Japanese custom and have been bowing lately instead of shaking hands) and I’m not sure I’ll even go out for coffee (maybe I’ll finally be able to learn how to do latte art well at home).
When you livelihood depends upon travel and all travel has been halted, you can appreciate the particular discomfort that accompanies it.
I’m convinced we will get through this. This sort of isolation may be the fastest way to get there. While I’m not concerned about my health, I would hate to ever infect others and I recognize short-term pain may be necessary for long-term gain.
But let me close by emphasizing once again FDR’s words. We cannot let fear rule us. We cannot succumb to ignorant rumors and media sensationalism. But life is changing and changing quickly. It will be quite ingesting to see—from the comfort of my home with my family by my side—how the next few weeks will play out.
Stay well.
@ Matthew — The real problem we face is that the Unites States’ current President is a pathological liar. He has no comprehension of the phrase “Nor need we shrink from honestly facing conditions in our country today. ” Our liar-in-chief will cause many unnecessary deaths from COVID-19.
@Gene: Go to your closest pharmacy and ask for Clonazepam. Also, stop watching CNN and go watch Sponge Bob. The combo of those two will help you during this difficult time.
Do shut up Chanti.
@Gene @Chanti @emerycrite Please keep your political comments to your own visits to other blogs. This is a travel blog. Please don’t hijack it. None of your comments had anything to do with a travel blog. All three of you added no value. None. Thanks.
The communists and socialist governments in China, Spain, Italy, France and Germany haven’t fared any better with COVID-19 so blaming Trump is just part of a constant derangement syndrome many people suffer when they can’t think for themselves but buy into everything they see in biased academia and the mass media. President Trump has been very strong in responding to COVID-19 and led with first banning Chinese flights and now banning all non citizens and PR from traveling from Europe. Denmark just followed a few days later and other countries will follow suit with the travel bans.
Spain, Italy, France, and Germany aren’t socialist. What a dumb thing to say.
Also, the US case is nothing like Denmark. Non-US citizens can still travel to the US, they just can’t do it through Europe (you still could technically via Qatar, the UAE, and other destinations in Europe).
This why recycling FOX News talking points is useless,,,
Trump, Hillary, even Gary Johnson would have had the same problem. The results would have been about the same. Only small differences, like the China travel ban, which seemed racist at the time but probably saved a few lives. No country had test kits in December 2019. No country has reserve hospitals.
This toilet paper thing is silly, though. Better hoard porn and peanut butter. Right?
This fear to go out is justified particularly if you are elderly. If not elderly, you still could die. 1% is no laughing matter. 1% of young and middle age adults would be 2 million dead. I suspect it’s less than 1%.
Actually, you can’t say that about Hillary or Gary Johnson because two years ago when he Trump disbanded the global health security team on the National Security Council (NSC) that was responsible for preparing for a pandemic. The NSC’s global health security chief, Rear Admiral Tim Ziemer, was fired the day after an Ebola outbreak was declared in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Last year intelligence agencies warned that the US remained vulnerable to the next flu pandemic but Trump, it seems, hoped that his long streak of political luck would hold.
Also, Trump turned down the offer of a German-made diagnostic test approved by the World Health Organization and taken up by many countries. It was reported that just 11,000 tests have been conducted in America so far, whereas South Korea is carrying out 10,000 tests per day.
It seems that Trump only began to take the issue seriously two weeks ago when he saw a 1,000-point drop on Wall Street. Even then, he urged aides, including Kellyanne Conway and senior economic adviser Larry Kudlow, to go on television and preach confidence, according to five White House officials and Republicans interviewed by the Associated Press.
So no, you cannot say for certainty how others would have reacted in Trump’s place. Suffice to say, he did screw up. And rather badly too.
I’m a long time travel enthusiast. I’ve been lucky to find work that keeps me on the road. I find joy in stepping on board flights and staying in hotels as much as much, if not more than, the work I do. One of my fears is that this temporary halt to halt to travel will lead to long term social changes. What if companies realize that business travel is not essential for conducting work. As the economies of remote conferencing tools find a broader audience during the virus scare, might we see a complete change in the business travel landscape. If I were a business owner I’d begin to see opportunities for savings. As a travel enthusiast, I’d worry about the loss of a change to the lifestyle I love.
@ Ed — No doubt this will cause a permanent reduction to business travel, which is good for companies and the environment. Business travel is mostly an unproductive “perk” (ie, waste of companies’ money). Your comments confirm this fact. You will likely find that staying home isn’t so bad, and maybe you can find a new passion, like gardening.
Between choosing a lifestyle circling the globe and a one watching a flower grow from potting soil (beautiful as it may be) I’d certainly hope there’s something between. “Rage against the dying of the light” – the time to settle is when I’m bedridden.
@ Ed — I fly about 300,000 – 400,000 miles and spend about 130 -140 nights per year in hotels, but I am honestly looking forward to the blank travel schedule. Of course, I may change my mind quickly after staying home for a couple months. The one thing I am definitely liking is my growing bank account from cancelled travel. Makes me wonder if I should just stay home and save faster for retirement (not likely).
Exactly the same question was raised during SARS and other epidemics. And yet business travel bounced back very quickly indeed. During those outbreaks, greater use of alternatives was canvassed, and partly adopted; but their use was short-lived. This time around It feels a bit different, and one doubts that a V-shaped recovery is on the cards.
The Only Thing We Have To Fear Is Fear Itself…
– fdr
I take no responsibility….
– donald trump
I kept my underwear on….
– Alan dershowitz
Wait… your family never got flu shots?
They did…but vomit, nausea, diarrhea…doesn’t sound good to me.
Matthew, I had that in Switzerland last month. As well a LOT of colleagues have had it the past month or so. It goes in a few days and was some sort of gastro bug.
norovirus?
All Apple Stores reopened in China yesterday. It will be a rough month in the US but that is about it. The world is not going to end. Americans overreact for anything. I live in a place where we have snowstorms. Any storm that is announced makes people empty all shelves. That is not new to me. People buy milk for a month knowing the storm will only last a day. People line up on gas stations knowing they won’t be able to go anywhere. Afraid of running out of toilet paper? Really? I would rather have enough food than enough toilet paper. If you don’t have anything to eat, toilet paper will be useless.
@ Santastico — Well, let’s see if cases begin to rise in China again before jumping to such conclusions. Besides, you actually trust the data from China that shows their cases have stopped? I call major lies and bullshit from China.
@Gene: I don’t trust China and I couldn’t care less for their bullshit. However, as a shareholder, I trust Apple as a reputable American corporation. I trust that Apple would not put their employees and customers at risk by reopening their China stores. I trust that the CEO of Apple, with approval of their Board, made the decision to reopen the stores and he probably did not make that decision based on Chinese intel.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-12/apple-reopens-all-42-china-stores-after-virus-closures
Apple reopened in China but closed just about everywhere else…
@Aaron: Don’t be short minded. Reopening stores on China gives an idea of the cycle of the virus and how long other countries will be crippled. If they indeed keep stores opened it is an indicator that in all other countries businesses will shutdown for a similar time and then restart again. Unless they close again that is what I expect.
The empty store shelves are due to hoarders panic buying necessities because they think there’s a supply shortage looming when there isn’t. Wait it out a few days and most everything (except TP and some cleaning supplies) will be back in a few days. If you need TP, e-mail me and I will be happy to ship you a few rolls. No, I did not hoard them. I just got lucky and found it on sale at Sam’s a few weeks ago. (For anyone reading who did panic buy – you’re a$$hats, every one of you, and sleep well knowing that somebody wasn’t able to get the necessities they needed thanks to your selfishness.)
While you should self-quarantine as long as your family exhibits flu-like symptoms, I would read this before making the decision to barricade yourself in your house for the next 2 months.
https://www.dallasnews.com/food/restaurant-news/2020/03/13/should-i-eat-in-a-dallas-restaurant-amid-coronavirus-and-social-distancing-epidemiologist-says-yes/
And this.
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/03/13/what-3-north-texas-health-experts-are-doing-to-stay-safe-from-the-coronavirus/
Actual health experts, including one with an autoimmune disease, are telling you the trip to the restaurant, grocery store, or coffee shop isn’t going to kill you as long as you take precautions. For now, anyway.
“But let me close by empathizing once again FDR’s words.”
I think you meant “emphasizing” which has very different meaning.
Nice post and I wish you and your family the best in this tough situation.
Stop by, I have some toilet paper. Still working on the 48-pack I bought months ago…
All the best to you and yours!
I had a double case of the flu or flu and something else this time last year. It really knocked me out. So much so that I took my first sick day from work in probably ten years. And the next day when I went in I was laid off. Funny thing is they had to redo all the dates on the paper work since it had obviously been planned for a while. Luckily for me though about losing my job because I pretty much spent the next two weeks in bed. I somewhat recovered after a week and then got hit hard again with a week of diarrhea. It took me weeks to fully recover although I can honestly say I still don’t feel 100% even after a year. Whatever it was that took me down it was nasty.
In a way I get the Roosevelt quote. I’m fond of it. But there IS something specific to fear now. It’s knocking off a lot of old dears , as well as those with compromised immune systems.
Yes, the struggle over toilet paper in supermarket aisles in Australia, and elsewhere, looks like a world gone crazy. But the virus is real, and we mustn’t be cavalier.
“I’m not afraid of novel coronavirus. It doesn’t kill healthy people like me.”
That’s the thing though…this isn’t just about YOU. You’re healthy, and aren’t at risk from dying from the virus. But you can transmit the virus to those who are at risk. That’s something people need to think about more.
But this is exactly what I said…it is why I am voluntarily suspending my travel.
Matt,
I am sorry about the impact on you industry. Remember tho, that this is real. This does kill or cause great harm to young people sporadically. But other issue here is what if you transmit to others or have to self-quarantine after exposure?
The data on safety of flights is highly sporadic as this little blurb from the New England Journal of Medicine from 2003 lets on. In 2 flights, SARS wasn’t passed to anyone. In a 3rd flight tho, SARS, was passed on to 22 of 119 people on board. Holy sh!t:
After one flight carrying a symptomatic person and 119 other persons, laboratory-confirmed SARS developed in 16 persons, 2 others were given diagnoses of probable SARS, and 4 were reported to have SARS but could not be interviewed. Among the 22 persons with illness, the mean time from the flight to the onset of symptoms was four days (range, two to eight), and there were no recognized exposures to patients with SARS before or after the flight. Illness in passengers was related to the physical proximity to the index patient, with illness reported in 8 of the 23 persons who were seated in the three rows in front of the index patient, as compared with 10 of the 88 persons who were seated elsewhere (relative risk, 3.1; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.4 to 6.9). In contrast, another flight carrying four symptomatic persons resulted in transmission to at most one other person, and no illness was documented in passengers on the flight that carried a person who had presymptomatic SARS.
Indeed. The latest information from Italy shows a surge in deaths in younger age groups, including some apparently fit and heathy, with no underlying health issues. It might give some of the irksome “I’m alright, Jack” mob cause to reflect.
I am stuck at my house in Germany. What started out as a simple trip to get some spring work done in the backyard and get our house ready for summer visitors turned out to be an extended stay. I was supposed to have flown back on Saturday on Lufthansa to LA out of Frankfurt. Thanks to my million miler status I was able to get a confirmed Polaris Throne (4L) on a United 777 to SFO and then connect to Burbank on Thursday. I agree with Matthew. No need to panic. My partner was supposed to come last week but he cancelled. He also sent me pictures of our local Vons. Appears the meat and canned soups are all gone. I am in a small village along the Rheine (Bacharach) and I do not see all this hysteria. The stores have plenty of everything except hand sanitizer. The news is 24 hours of corona virus but thank goodness I can access my Netflix account. Have been binge watching many programs. Be rational, wash your hands, avoid large gatherings if possible and reconnect with your family. I will be glad to get back to Glendale but in the meantime enjoying my extended stay.
You can’t have a capitalist system and tell people not to hoard and profit from an opportunity. Makes no sense.
Like being told you are on your own and then being told we are in this together. Get your bloody messaging right capitalists.
Like Mohammad Ali said when he skipped the draft during vietnam war “those guys never called me a [redacted by admin]”, make sure you give people a reason to be in it together.