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Home » covid-19 » Will Coming COVID-19 Wave Cause Travel Chaos?
covid-19

Will Coming COVID-19 Wave Cause Travel Chaos?

Matthew Klint Posted onSeptember 26, 2023November 13, 2023 45 Comments

a woman with a face mask

Passengers traveling from London Gatwick are facing delays and cancellations this week due to a COVID-19 outbreak among air traffic controllers. As winter approaches, will COVID-19 again cause travel chaos?

Rising COVID-19 Cases Threaten Global Travel

COVID-19 never went away, we’ve just learned to better co-exist with it. But as the colder months approach in the Northern Hemisphere, cases are on the rise (blurred only by many no longer bothering to test).

I know of multiple people who are currently positive and experiencing mild to moderate symptoms. While not a cold or flu, eventually we may need to treat COVID-19 no different: life must go on and as we understand the virus more, we can better cope with it, prepare for it, and fight against it. The tradeoffs of fresh shut-downs or travel restrictions should take all such discussion totally off the table.

Still, we may see travel disruptions if COVID-19 ravages through crew domiciles and air traffic control towers. That is what happened this week in London Gatwick, where the flow rate had to be substantially reduced because so many air traffic controllers called in sick.

It is not far-fetched to speculate that we could see the same thing in the United States, especially because air traffic controllers are already stretched thin. The stigma around COVID-19 will prompt many to stay home when sick versus a cold, leading to higher absence rates (and this isn’t a bad thing…).

a woman wearing a face mask and a mask walking down a walkway

A Return To Masking?

Based on the bad behavior that obligatory masking encourages among some adult toddlers, I do not expect we will see any return to mandatory masking and especially not on airplanes. Presented with vaccines, boosters, and drugs like Paxlovid, those who wish to mask may do so.

In Los Angeles, masks have returned in a big way. At grocery stores and restaurants and coffee shops, workers are wearing them again. Even at my gym, many patrons are working out with their N95s or at least surgical masks. I don’t see many cloth masks any longer, which is a good thing. Admittedly, I strongly dislike masking up but if cases rise significantly I may choose to mask up on airplanes, especially if I encounter a seatmate who looks sick.

CONCLUSION

While it is too early to tell what the winter will look like in terms of COVID-19, the rise in cases and recent issues at London Gatwick suggest we might be in for a greater struggle than many predicted. While wide-scale shutdowns or travel restrictions are highly unlikely, we may see frequent disruptions should cases explode as the weather cools.

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About Author

Matthew Klint

Matthew is an avid traveler who calls Los Angeles home. Each year he travels more than 200,000 miles by air and has visited more than 135 countries. Working both in the aviation industry and as a travel consultant, Matthew has been featured in major media outlets around the world and uses his Live and Let's Fly blog to share the latest news in the airline industry, commentary on frequent flyer programs, and detailed reports of his worldwide travel.

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45 Comments

  1. simmonad Reply
    September 26, 2023 at 2:55 pm

    Does cooler weather influence Covid incidence? Were tropical countries less impacted during 2020/21? In the Canary Islands – where we don’t really have winter – our rates were no different from mainland Spain, much of which is definitely chilly in winter.

    • Matthew Klint Reply
      September 26, 2023 at 4:21 pm

      Rates seem to go up when more people are indoors.

      https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

    • covidvaxinfo Reply
      September 27, 2023 at 11:41 am

      Go to Odysee…look for a video called COVID VACCINES – SAVIOUR OR DEATH.

      Covers 30+ countries….was censored on Youtube after a few thousand views. Put it on Rumble and Brighteon as well.

      had plans to shorten it and make more versions…but lost interest.

  2. Don Reply
    September 26, 2023 at 3:08 pm

    Didn’t these people get vaccinated???

    Vaccination stops transmission. If everyone would just get vaccinated!
    The government told me that!

  3. Stuart Reply
    September 26, 2023 at 3:11 pm

    Interesting timing. I agree. I have a feeling we are headed into the biggest Covid wave we have seen to date. Vaccinations are waning and less effective, the new variants are far more contagious, and most have moved on from caring. I am a perfect example of how this is going to come to play now and in the next few months.

    After traveling for 3.5 years through it all, to the worst hot spots, on planes and in airports every week, I finally 13 days ago on Wednesday got it for the first time. I landed in California in the evening and by morning I was down and out, tested and was positive. I was not horribly sick, just a bit worn down and achy with mild fever. I let the hotel know, they were great (Andaz Napa), cancelled all of my meetings for the next few days, got a prescription for Paxlovid, and began my isolation. Luckily my room had a balcony which made the isolation a bit more tolerable. Tested negative on Sunday, and Monday again, thus caught my next flight to Seattle.

    I started working on Tuesday on a month long project, figuring Covid was done. Well, not so fast. this Saturday night I started feeling odd. Sunday morning woke up with congestion. Tested. I was positive again. Covid rebound. While they say Paxlovid does not cause this I am less than believing it anymore, too many I know rebounded after it. Next time I will just ride it out (the side effects were also terrible). I’ve decided I like my Covid and my cocktails without mixers. Oh, and I am now isolated in my room in Seattle, with very mild cold symptoms, but nonetheless stuck again, and waiting to test negative and continue the project here all while more expenses mount.

    The lesson in this is that for those readers here who travel every week like me, the odds are this fall (given my past track record), this is gonna hit a lot of us. And, like me, probably at the worst time. In a hotel, lost meetings, significant added expenses, and, like me, a need to backtrack again for these meetings all over again. It gets expensive and frustrating really fast. And now my schedule for the next few months is verging on impossible.

    Interestingly, what I have now would be just thought of as a small cold. Prior to Covid I would just bear it out and do my stuff. Covid has changed everything. I clearly can’t go out as long as I’m positive. Even if negative, I wonder if having just a cold as well would also be frowned upon by others. Things sure have changed, and those changes finally caught up with me. And as this post states, I think it’s going to make for a wild fall and winter travel season.

    • Galoot Reply
      September 26, 2023 at 3:52 pm

      @Stuart … very best wishes to you . ( p.s. , I have found that champagne is a good medicine .)

      • Stuart Reply
        September 26, 2023 at 5:20 pm

        Thanks! I’ll consider your medication, lol

    • derek Reply
      September 26, 2023 at 4:22 pm

      Possible COVID infection from a different strain or, more likely, rebound. Don’t blame Paxlovid. What might have happened is that Paxlovid stopped most of the viral replication so you tested negative but not enough so that the few virus particles left made you sick.

      Paxlovid is great. I took it within 38 minutes of a positive test and 12 hours after the latest negative test. AS soon as I got the positive test at the doctor’s office, he gave me a prescription, which I filled across the street. Popped the pills using Coca Cola that I bought at the pharmacy.

      • Jeff Reply
        September 26, 2023 at 4:27 pm

        Have you considered that you got COVID-19 *because* you were boosted, not despite being boosted?

      • Stuart Reply
        September 26, 2023 at 11:08 pm

        @ Derek

        “What might have happened is that Paxlovid stopped most of the viral replication so you tested negative but not enough so that the few virus particles left made you sick.”

        Umm, yes, so Paxlovid does create a rebound effect. Whether it causes it directly or not is irrelevant. It creates the opportunity for a rebound. And I’ll never let anyone talk me into taking it again. It has benefits I’m sure for those who seriously need it. But for most it’s just prolonging your own body doing its job. I was fine and just got on the train if thinking it’s what you do when you get it. I learned.

    • Maryland Reply
      September 26, 2023 at 4:56 pm

      @ Stuart

      Returning your kind wishes. Get well and stay well. You are the best.

      • Stuart Reply
        September 26, 2023 at 5:19 pm

        Thank you, sweet lady!

    • dee Reply
      September 28, 2023 at 2:25 pm

      I was just walking by the andaz the other day hope it is not local and the covid numbers will not increase there..but u prob got it in the airport of plane prior to getting to Napa…Hope you get over the post-covid covid asap..

  4. Dave Edwards Reply
    September 26, 2023 at 3:33 pm

    The good news is free test kits are available and the website opened up yesterday. And in typical government incompetence, you can enter any name and as long as it’s a legitimate postal address they will be shipped.

    So feel free to send your neighbors you don’t like kits under Dick Head, Jack Meoff, Haywood Jablowme or anything else you can think of. And give your mailman a laugh, they deserve it.

    Yes, I’m just a grown up kid that enjoys immature things.

    • Maryland Reply
      September 26, 2023 at 7:46 pm

      I often miss your fun! And yep I sent tests to relatives all over the country. Sadly I used the correct names. They would have appreciated the jokes!

  5. Santastico Reply
    September 26, 2023 at 3:34 pm

    Getting my popcorn ready!! Moderna and Pfizer really need to improve their results so time to cause some Covid hysteria again.

  6. Joe Chivas Reply
    September 26, 2023 at 3:37 pm

    Everyone should be masking right now, no exceptions! Double masking for in-person meetings. Single masking is sufficient for Zoom.

    • Santastico Reply
      September 26, 2023 at 3:49 pm

      I think airports are the best place for people watching. I travel almost every week and the things I see at airports are mind blowing. People still wear cloth masks with team logos or Disney characters on it. Masks hanging on their chins, double full N95 masks (yes, 2 N95 masks on top of each other), a 3M full respirator that you can probably survive a nuclear explosion. I see some people wearing rubber gloves, some wear regular masks you find at medical offices but only during times and then they remove them. In sum, it is fun to watch.

  7. Todd Reply
    September 26, 2023 at 3:57 pm

    I’m by no means against masking and fully support anyone’s choice to do so, but did the most recent studies not conclude they were ineffective against Covid?

    • derek Reply
      September 26, 2023 at 4:16 pm

      No. Studies show that N95 masks are highly effective against COVID. Those that work with COVID patients and wear N95 masks do not get COVID most of the time.

      What some studies show is that even people who wear N95 masks let down their guard after work and do get COVID. Factor that in and the rate of COVID among N95 mask wearers is not that much lower because they get exposed after work.

  8. derek Reply
    September 26, 2023 at 4:12 pm

    This pandemic shows how stupid people are. The pandemic is getting worse but people act like it’s over.

    I found out the hard way that you can fool yourself but not the coronavirus. I got COVID from outdoor dining with only two other people. Here’s the facts:
    1. I am in good health. I got the latest version of the Covid vaccine earlier this year 8 weeks before getting COVID.
    2. I worked from home and did not go to any store or any public place for a week. I wore N95 masks when meeting the couple.
    3. A couple, who are friends, went on a cruise and did not have masks.
    4. We ate outdoors in a hotel courtyard with zero other people in the courtyard. The next day, that couple felt sick.
    5. 2 days later, I felt sick and tested positive for COVID. They did, too, when I alerted them.

    So you can eat across the table from someone who feels ok and they can give you COVID.

    FYI, the couple has long COVID, still suffering 6 weeks later.

    If anyone had any brains, they would avoid indoor dining, wear N95 masks properly, get the latest Sept version vaccine, and try to avoid unnecessary public contact.

    • Dave Edwards Reply
      September 26, 2023 at 4:17 pm

      This is a parody account, correct?

      Hilarious story in either case.

      • derek Reply
        September 26, 2023 at 4:25 pm

        Not a parody account. Getting COVID is as hilarious as Putin killing opponents or Policeman Derek Chauvin stepping on a guy’s neck or Hitler ordering that Jews be gassed to death.

        With vaccination, COVID is no longer so scary but still needs to be considered a very serious medical issue.

        • Jeff Reply
          September 26, 2023 at 4:28 pm

          Derek, Have you considered that you got COVID-19 *because* you were boosted, not despite being boosted?

        • Dave Edwards Reply
          September 26, 2023 at 4:52 pm

          Says the guy who wants indoor restaurants closed. Or if open, people to avoid them. Even the fringe Covid fanatics aren’t suggesting that.

          Perhaps you haven’t been following the stock market and our economy.

          Perhaps YOU are the guy who doesn’t have any brains as you accused anyone dining inside of not having.

          “ If anyone had any brains, they would avoid indoor dining, wear N95 masks properly, get the latest Sept version vaccine, and try to avoid unnecessary public contact.”

          Pure internet comedy gold, GOLD I say. Thank you Bozo.

  9. Wade Reply
    September 26, 2023 at 4:21 pm

    Masks. COVID. Vaccines. All of it is total nonsense! The oh so many selfish and cowardly fools on the planet that take faith in such things are the reason we fail to materially progress forward as a society. Newsflash#1: humans have immune systems and exposure to new viruses is essential to strengthening said immunity! No need for a mask…duh! Newsflash #2: all living entities eventually die…stop selfishly trying to prolong your own life at the expense of others.

    The single greatest failure of the last decade is that not enough weak, old, and useless people died during the original pandemic. Maybe this time we’ll get lucky? Would be great to finally rid ourselves of UA-NYC’s stupidity and Stuart’s malfeasance….

    • Stuart Reply
      September 26, 2023 at 5:27 pm

      My malfeasance? What in the world are you actually referring to? More so, who are you? Sorry to disappoint your request for my demise but I have Covid right now and doing just fine.

    • Maryland Reply
      September 26, 2023 at 6:36 pm

      Hey Wade,

      Remember your comment when you are diagnosed with anything. Please deny any treatment, surgery, medication or any other help. Just remember it’s Darwin coming for you too.

  10. Jan Reply
    September 26, 2023 at 4:34 pm

    This post reminds me of when the media also tried to make monkeypox the next big thing, despite it being limited and linked to degeneracy in some circles

    • Matthew Klint Reply
      September 26, 2023 at 4:42 pm

      I’m not trying to make COVID-19 the “next big thing” but based upon the people I know who are getting it (and look, Stuart too…) and also this news from England, I do wonder if we will start seeing travel delays again…and God forbid any restrictions on movement.

      • Santastico Reply
        September 26, 2023 at 4:50 pm

        The only people getting Covid nowadays are the ones getting tested. Seriously, it is just another virus amongst us. Do you test for flu? Do you quarantine for flu? Stop the hysteria and no more isolation. Virus is out there. Want to wear a mask? Go for it.

        • Stuart Reply
          September 26, 2023 at 5:18 pm

          While on one hand I agree with you, I just have a cold right now and could function fine, the reality is as much as you might yell and scream how absurd it is that I have to isolate society expects this now. And I don’t think it’s going to change until those more vulnerable are not being hospitalized.

          For me, I had a responsibility to tell my clients that I am positive. Not one of them, even though I was feeling fine, would allow me in to work with them. Here in Seattle they made it clear that I am off the project until I test two days negative.

          • Santastico
            September 26, 2023 at 5:35 pm

            @Stuart: People won’t get tested so there is nothing to share with anyone. I met numerous people in the last few months that had cold symptoms. Who knows if that was Covid. Life goes on.

          • Stuart
            September 26, 2023 at 5:40 pm

            @Santastico The reality is, if I don’t test, go to meetings every day with a group while sneezing and blowing my nose, and two days later a few of them get Covid, I am ostracized and potentially jeopardize future work.

          • Santastico
            September 26, 2023 at 6:47 pm

            @Stuart: not criticizing you. I am just saying Covid is over. It is over for most people. Do you really think any high school kid that sneezes will get tested for Covid? Never again. Politics apart, some restrictions were way too much and people will never forget. Most people will give not one but two middle fingers for any mandate going forward. Good luck trying to mandate vaccines and masks. Game over. Life goes on.

          • Stuart
            September 26, 2023 at 10:59 pm

            @Santastico The reality is it’s not over. Not will it ever be. Just like the flu or common cold we are on this hamster wheel forever. The positive is we do have options to help those who are compromised. The reality is we can also act out in a way that when we test positive to be considerate of others. Not only for their health, but lost time out of work etc. Covid has made me rethink the idea that you work through a cold or flu and who cares if you expose others…it used to be a badge of honor. That has changed, whether you agree with it or not. There are those who can’t afford to miss work, or less able to manage their schedule as to you and I, and Covid affects everyone differently. The ATC event in London is a perfect example. Do you expect them to all come in anyway? Of course not. Do you want a room full of guys with a fever and feeling sick guiding your aircraft? What about pilots? The list goes on. The reality is that though Covid mimics a cold or mild flu for some, it’s still very very contagious. And it can infect an entire group in close proximity quickly. If we decide “it’s over” and just ignore it, if I kept my Covid a secret and then ended up infecting colleagues, thereby delaying my project even more, we accomplish nothing. There is a balance. As in everything.

          • Santastico
            September 26, 2023 at 11:37 pm

            @Stuart: you missed my point. When I say Covid is over, I mean people are done with it. Of course this virus will be around forever but my point is that nobody cares. It will be treated like a cold or flu. Look, I don’t go to meetings if I have fever, I am not feeling well, coughing, etc… I never did when I had cold symptoms. But no, I will not test to check if it is Covid . Once the symptoms are gone,, like any other virus, life goes on. Or do you expect people to lock themselves in their basement for 5 days and be isolated from the world because someone decided that you need to isolate yourself for 5 days? Not 4, not 6, just 5. I am sorry but that is over.

        • Stuart Reply
          September 27, 2023 at 10:58 am

          @Santastico My point is that people do care. While I would be fine to work now, and am all day in my room for that matter, the clients have been clear that I will need to show a negative test for two straight days before entering back into the facility. Mind you, I was honest with the report of my rebound positive, but much of this mostly to also be a decent person in that 10 of them were exposed to me at an event on Saturday night prior to my rebound symptoms appearing. Of course I needed to be courteous and warn them. Luckily none tested positive. But I felt like I did the right thing as if one did and potentially exposed in elderly family member I could not live with myself. I care. Others care. Maybe in time that will change. But for now it’s still very much a part of our lives as responsible humans.

  11. Maryland Reply
    September 26, 2023 at 5:27 pm

    September 7 I was covid positive. Within 10 hours 4 other friends were also ill. Curiously we had not interacted in weeks. I did not take Paxlovid. Some did, we all recovered in about 5 days (negative). We all have been vaccinated and boosted. It’s having a resurgence here and whatever strain I picked up is probably more contagious because I have been extremely careful for other reasons. Two old friends are returning from Scotland today via Heathrow. Hopefully their flight will be fine. L is a physician so masks will be worn. Life goes on.

  12. Airliner1 Reply
    September 26, 2023 at 6:08 pm

    It’s 4 years into this. Enough with Covid. Nobody is going to cancel a flight home and isolate for 5 days in a hotel when then are going home from a vacation or business trip. They don’t even provide free covid tests in the UK or the Netherlands. There is no requirement to test. How come people didn’t test for the flu or a cold before covid. Immunocomproised still existed then.

    WE have turned life on its head. The bubble boy has to stay in the bubble. It’s not up to everyone else to constantly monitor viruses. Stay at home in your bubble if you don’t want to get sick.

    I have never tested for the flu in my life and that puts people in the hospital and worse. The same goes for other colds.

  13. Sam Herda Reply
    September 27, 2023 at 2:33 am

    What is with the Covid hysteria this time around? We didn’t even reach half of the hospitalizations of the last summer/fall wave and we’ve already peaked. We didn’t even reach the previous low last summer. You wouldn’t know that by all of the autists begging for mask mandates again. It’s been over a year without any sort of intervention and now all of a sudden we need mandates again?

    • Stuart Reply
      September 27, 2023 at 11:03 am

      I don’t think mandates are a big thing outside of a few idiots yelling for them. It’s never going to happen. But I will disagree with you on the recent surge. It’s not even the peak season yet of the holidays and wastewater statistics have shown this to be the third largest wave (over late August until last week when it peaked) that we have had over the nearly four years. To the point of this post I think it’s correct to assume that we will have as a result a number of disruptions this winter like what you see at LGW.

      • Sam Herda Reply
        September 27, 2023 at 12:56 pm

        I was talking about hospitalizations specifically. Most people aren’t getting seriously sick anymore. Even last year most hospitalizations were incidental but you had the media and overly partisan health officials putting out the fear porn like it was 2020. Excess deaths have been on par with pre 2020 since the first 3 weeks of this year. Even during the worst virus seasons in the past all officials did was tell you to stay home when sick or avoid certain settings when flu transmission was high. Now you have cities bringing back masks in certain settings based on all virus activity not just covid (see Seattle and the bay area). Under no circumstance should any mandates or restrictions come back but some just can’t let go.

  14. Ryan Reply
    September 27, 2023 at 6:49 am

    Of course. We haven’t vastly overreacted to anything in weeks.

    Nevermind that our reaction to Covid killed far more people than masks saved. Time for a reboot. Get the suicide hotlines and drug treatment centers staffed up. Big Pharma profits are down and we need a new crisis.

    Ok… obviously being over the top here. But come on. Did we not learn anything in the last few years or are we destined to repeat history? I did my 3 shots and masked. Like most. But it was all for naught obviously. No more. F-off.

    But I do hope for another massive wave of Covid if it can end both Trump and Biden. I’ll gladly endure any number of casualties so long as those 2 are on the list. But if those 2 survive than we all have a pretty good shot.

  15. dee Reply
    September 28, 2023 at 2:28 pm

    When I see people wearing cloth masks–esp if in the seat next to me on planes I give them N95’s –I carry at least 6 xxtra with me.

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