This morning, Pfizer and BioNTech reported both startling and promising results from its COVID-19 vaccine trial: an effective rate of over 90%. If this proves true, it could hasten the return of worldwide travel sooner than many of us expected.
A Promising New COVID-19 Vaccine
As new COVID-19 cases spiral upward around the world at a concerning pace, drug maker Pfizer announced that its coronavirus vaccine trial has been widely successful in early testing stages. Noting both a 90% effective rate and no serious side effects or safety concerns, it has now requested emergency authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Such authorization could be granted as soon as two-months of safety data is compiled.
Kathrin Jansen, head of vaccine research and development at Pfizer, told the New York Times:
“This is a historical moment. This was a devastating situation, a pandemic, and we have embarked on a path and a goal that nobody ever has achieved — to come up with a vaccine within a year.”
There are still many unknowns, of course. How long will the vaccine be effective? Will there be any long-term effects that do not manifest themselves for many months?
Early production would be limited, so expect the vaccine to be highly-rationed. By the end of 2021, however, Pfizer estimates it can produce over one billion vaccines…and that’s just Pfizer. 10 other vaccines are in late-stage trials.
Work on this vaccine began at a BioNTech lab in Mainz, Germany in late January, the day the first case in France was detected. In March BioNTech partnered with Pfizer.
What Does COVID-19 Vaccine Mean For Travel?
As exciting as news of a vaccine is, it will not re-open international borders immediately, even if it shortly gains regulatory approval. Still, as trials continue to validate it and production ramps up, a successful vaccine has the potential to re-open the world by the middle of 2021.
Such a vaccine could not only re-open borders, but even replace our need to wear masks (though I tend to think masks will be around quite a bit longer).
Don’t expect any short term changes, but the beleaguered airlines and hotels have much to look forward to in the second half of 2021 if this vaccine (and others) proves effective.
CONCLUSION
We would all be wise to take a measured approach to this news. Make no mistake, there is cause for celebration. But the news was released via press release, not peer review. Scientists must perform immense additional testing before the public should feel fully confident taking this vaccine. Nevertheless, an effective vaccine could rapidly accelerate our return to international travel.
I’m amazed at how scientists around the world have been working around the clock to develop this vaccine. Let us now hope that trials continue to reveal additional candidates for a successful and side-effect-free vaccine for COVID-19.
You must be mistaken. God has answered our prayers. He sent his son with the vaccine to us. Had nothing to do with science.
I hope everyone of faith will boycott science and hospitals and get their vaccines in churches.
Yes absolutely God has been answering our prayers it’s a miracle amen
By the way marks should be made mandatory. Can prevent flu and save the economy a lot of money.
You should have to pay for the privilege of not wearing masks.
Also the world medical infrastructure is vastly inadequate. This was a biological warfare sent by china. Even if they did not bio engineer it, they were cavalier about allowing infected people to leave wuhan and travel all around the world knowing full well the effect or would have, since they were draconian in their response internally.
All that to say there is a next one coming from China. We better decide now,
1) we will spend trillions to shore up medical infrastructure for everyone
2) we don’t care and we will just let people die.
And don’t trust china. Xi jin ping is a POS.
Pfizer has taken longer than originally expected to get to this point due to low covid infections in their study. They have to wait for 165 people to be diagnosed with Covid and then look at how many of those were in the placebo group. This is how they get to the 90%. The delay of positive cases may be due to the 90% efficacy which would be a good thing. Very promising indeed. Also, they have been doing “risk production” of their trial vaccine since July, so hopefully they will have a lot to distribute once approved.
Middle of 2021? You are mistaken. You meant end of 2021 to middle of 2022 if the data holds up, if you add up all the necessary steps.
Also, this compared 10 cases of covid in one arm to approximately 80 cases of covid in another arm in 40,000 volunteers and addressed nothing about the longevity of protection.
We are constantly told the flu vaccine is 80% effective, only to find efficacy rates as low as 20% some years. The covid vaccine will almost certainly not be 90% effective in the real world, and factor that half the people won’t take it, the population-level effects won’t be what you think they are.
Travel decisions will be made mostly on the level of transmission at the arrival and destination areas, and less so on what an individual has done, such as getting “immunity cards,” etc.
I’m being optimistic. I know Australia is already locking up their citizens until the end of next year.
Nothing wrong with that!! Best of luck. You will be fully back in the game soon, tho. I can’t see things being the way they are for more than a year or two,
This winter will be bad, however. SoCal is only at the beginning of its third wave.
Coming Soon: Anti-maskers have become anti-vaxxers. Hilarity ensues.
Great preliminary news but not a magic solution. If it is 90% effective and only 55% of people agree to get it, that would mean about half of the population sick or spreading Covid-19. That Pfizer vaccine requires 2 shots and may last one year. The 2 shots will result in some people only getting one.
People might have to wear masks in 2021, 2022, and even early 2023.
Anti-vaxxers have the right to decline. However they should be denied all publicly -funded goods and services, including right of access to public areas, education, health, travel. They can feel free to live in total isolation.
This Australian winter the death rate from seasonal flu was a tiny fraction of what would be expected in a ‘normal’ year ( even though that number varies from season to season). Presumably the fall is a combination of factors: less mobility, fewer close interactions due to social distancing, better hygiene, the use of masks, greater uptake of the ‘flu vaccine. Consequently far, far fewer people died, even with the 900 COVID deaths
How about fat people? Why should they have access to publicly funded goods and services? They take up more space, consume more calories, induce more wear and tear on facilities, and obviously strain the health care system. Have you ever sat next to a fat person on a plane?
You seem to have a bizarre obsession with obesity…given the self-hatred you seem to have, can only imagine your inflated sausage-like fingers angrily pounding away at the keyboard
Obesity is just one of the many problems the left is succeeding at normalizing in America. They even blame being fat on white supremacy. Americans used to pride themselves on individual responsibility. Now almost any problem is to be blamed on white cishet patriarchy.
Obesity is quite relevant to the problem of COVID-19 since it increases the risk for negative outcomes. It also kills more people every year than COVID-19 has so far in the US.
Would you like to place a wager on who is fatter between the two of us?
Ooh. So a cult member wishes to deny his cult leader, the loser president access to medical services. OMG!
Did you catch TDS from UA-TDS? Paolo is the one who brought up denying services to a certain segment of the population. I was merely pointing out a logical corollary to his proposition.
Also, as I have explained to UA-TDS repeatedly, I did not vote for Trump, not in 2016, not in 2020. Obesity should be a non-partisan issue and it is far larger problem than COVID-19. Dealing with it will require individuals making good decisions, as with COVID-19. If people actually paid for the consequences of their actions, we wouldn’t have nearly as many problems as we do today, COVID-19, obesity or otherwise.
Fat people don’t put the health of others at risk ; anti-vaxxers do. I tolerate their right to decline vaccinations, although the fact that they impose their lunacy on their kids is deeply troubling.
Sure, sure, you didn’t vote for Trump, sure…whatever you say. If it looks, walks, and talks like a duck…
(BTW don’t hate yourself for your obesity, it afflicts a good percentage of the population…you just shouldn’t take it out on others, self help is a wonderful thing!)
People really need to not get their hopes up.
Given the comments, It seems Covid has really dampened optimism in this country. Which was once the hallmark of our nation.
I, for one, choose to believe that it will be far faster and much more effective in ending this than people say here. Faith in the collective minds of a global community who are working together, faith in Science, faith in the ability of people to achieve greatness at their darkest hour, and faith in the inherent good of mankind will lead us to the end just as fast as we spun out of control.
It won’t be instant, but for the most part the summer of 2021 looks hopeful to me in having some semblance of normality.
It would have helped if we had had competent, science-based, truthful leadership in the WH. Instead we had a self-promoting, lying charlatan.
On to 2021 though!
Zoom stock price is down sharply; the market is betting on the vaccine facilitating a return to business travel…