With maintenance deferrals mounting, planes no longer fit for air service, and a dangerous decision to fly without brakes, how long will it be until the first deadly crash of a passenger jet on a Russian airline?
Russian Airlines Face Mounting Maintenance Issues, Difficulty Procuring Parts
A number of stories just boggle the mind concerning the dismal state of the airline industry in Russia.
- Aeroflot Russian Airlines is now flying aircraft without brakes. Per the The Moscow Times, brakes have been deactivated on nine Airbus and Boeing aircraft due to unavailability of spare parts (ironically, Russia has been sending aircraft to Iran–which faces heavy western sanctions itself–for aircraft servicing). Pilots have been instructed to use reverse thrusters instead.
- Red Wings, a regional leisure airline based in Moscow Domodedovo Airport, has seen two of its three Boeing 777 go out of service over the last two days, stranding hundreds of passengers in Turkey. It says the aircraft “simultaneously failed” but provided no further details, though Russian media has reported that the cooling system in one aircraft failed, leading to panic attacks and fainting onboard.
- Russian airlines are resorting to “cannibalization” of their fleets to keep aircraft running, with otherwise airworthy aircraft sacrificed for spare parts
Even with cracks in the sanctions via China, Turkey, India, Israel, the Gulf states, and others, it has been a struggle to source certain spare parts, which not only has delayed passengers in Russia, but potentially put them in great danger.
The sad thing is that once the war ends and Russia is no longer an international pariah (hope springs eternal…), its currently aircraft will likely never be allowed in western airspace due to the unverified potential gaps in maintenance records.
But that’s getting quite ahead of ourselves. Sadly, the much more immediate and dire risk is that sooner or later (and likely sooner than later) we will see a deadly crash. After all, when pilots are instructed to operate without brakes and aircraft are being cannibalized for spare parts, you have to reasonably assume that there are certain risks being taken that recognize the currently reality of sanctions.
Should sanctions prohibiting the import of aircraft parts put “ordinary” Russians at risk? That’s a tough question: it is unfortunate the Russian people do not hold their leaders responsible for wars of aggression. But I guess that goes beyond the scope of this blog…
CONCLUSION
Russian airlines are understandably facing mounting pressure, after 18 months of sanctions, to service their aircraft. While parts are still flowing in, the ease in which they flow is severely restrained and compromising safety. Sadly, it is only a matter of time until a crash occurs…the current trajectory is not promising.
image: Sergei Bobylev/TASS
To answer the questions:
1. The crash? Hopefully soon.
2. Should sanctions prohibiting the import of aircraft parts put “ordinary” Russians at risk? Absolutely yes.
All of you Westerners are welcome to clutch your pearls and cry how “inhumane” my comment is.
You don’t know Russia and Russians, you didn’t believe when we kept saying how dangerous they are and how unhinged their leadership is. You kept laughing at us and called us “russophobes” when we said that they will start another war soon and commit more and more atrocities (look up Bucha for example). You kept doing business with them, fuelling their war machine that they are using now in Ukraine – for 9 years already – and earlier in Georgia.
You kept visiting Moscow and St. Petersburg, raving about lovely art – stolen from the Central Europe, mostly – wonderful hospitality (while the ruSSians treated you like walking ATMs and laughed at you behind your backs) and great sights (in those two cities, exclusively, of course you wouldn’t dare to visit Vladivostok, Norils or Yekaterinburg).
So why are we so against ruSSia? Maybe it’s the centuries of oppression and countless atrocities? Maybe it’s the feeling that we, as a region, will be yet again deceived and left alone as a walking ground for their troops? Maybe it’s the knowledge that a vast majority (according to polls over 90%) of ruSSians support their current actions? Maybe it’s all of that together?
You don’t get to criticise us for this – you didn’t live through those things. We want to hold ruSSians accountable – to the point of actually feeling Schadenfreude when one of their stolen planes crashes.
Cry more.
Wow, your social credit score went up by one point, commie 🙂 Maybe you can go to Xinjiang right now 🙂
Don’t you mean Siberia? I think you’re getting your eastern despots mixed up, whiney boy.
I have no issue with your comment. We reap what we sow. And Russia has been an aggressor for centuries. It deserves anything it gets for this latest bloodthirsty invasion of it’s neighbor, Ukraine.
But I’ll add my sincere hope is that the first flight to go down is one with Putin on board and that it’s torturously painful for the bastard.
@Grzegorz…
1. The crash? Hopefully soon.
2. Should sanctions prohibiting the import of aircraft parts put “ordinary” Russians at risk? Absolutely yes.
This “westerner” agrees with you completely. The sooner more Russians die, the better. The world will be a better place without them.
When Russians decided to re-join the human race, then we can start saying nice things about how sad is is for “innocent Russian civilians” to lose their lives. Until then, fuck them, THERE ARE NO INNOCENT RUSSIANS. They can all go to hell, the sooner the better.
This American wants to see us give Zelenskyy EVERYTHING he wants and needs to kill Russians, no exceptions. The entire world owes Ukraine a great debt for what they are doing, and all we owe Russia is contempt and 1000 years of misery and suffering. The sooner they all go to hell, the better.
To answer the original question: How Soon Till Deadly Russian Airline Crash?
My answer: NOT SOON ENOUGH.
I presume then that if a Russian airliner full of women and children were to crash it would be cause for celebration in your opinion?
Of course he will be happy.
Just like I will be when Putin uses limited nukes to show the Comedian who is boss. Then it will be up to the senile bastard in Washington to decide if it’s worth destroying the world over.
Of course it would be a cause for celebration. A strong moral blow that they would bring on themselves ? Wonderful news. Maybe some of them would see how Putin is killing them in a war that ruSSia cannot ever win – the one he is waging against the West, not the one in Ukraine.
So you would be happy if a group of people with nothing whatsoever to do with Putin or the war, even little kids with no say in anything, were to die, simply for being Russian? You’re kind of a psycho aren’t you, or just a nasty Keyboard Warrior?
“I presume then that if a Russian airliner full of women and children were to crash it would be cause for celebration in your opinion?”
Interesting question. Women, in spite (or because) of the western narrative that women are helpless victims, are actually quite empowered. Women who protest even in Russia are (mostly) treated with kids’ gloves while men who do so are beaten and sent to the front. The women in the hypothetical situation above weren’t forced into planes with their children to fly on a vacation to Turkey in a rustbucket. One mother who recently died in the Kerch bridge attack a month ago was a rabid “Z” supporter coming back from a vacation on stolen land.
It’s like to take my daughter and wife to Odesa to visit our family there but we know it’s a war zone where Russians are targeting civilians so we don’t go. That’s on me.
My 88 year old father-in-law, however, doesn’t want to leave his home although we offered him to stay in the USA for a year or more if he likes. That’s his home and he isn’t leaving.
Yeah I visit Russia, lived in Russia in the last 1990s. Yes Moscow and St Petersburg and yes to Yekaterinburg, twice.
Yes I knew I was seen as a bit of an ATM, but that’s the same now in India, Indonesia, Thailand and many other places including Sri Lanka where I live now.
But really – wishing death upon innocents? Sure justify it with what Russia has done to your people over the centuries – sure, keep that circle of hatred going for another generation. But whatever you say, unless it’s military aircraft then the atrocities were not committed by the people on the plane, and they probably don’t support the war. “90% support it”? You’re believing Putin’s propaganda.
My ex wife is Russian and she does not support the war – it’s one of the few things we agree on! – and Russian friends who I am still in touch with and Russians that I I have spoke with here, barely any have anything favourable to say about it.
The crash? Hopefully soon.- You are just despicable Pšonek(thats how you call Polish) wishing death to other people
Czesc Grzegorz! I’m sure you’ve already seen it, but just in case, google “Overall opinion of Russia Pew research”. 98% of Poles have a negative view of the Russian federation. I’m chuckling that there were one of the 2% or so that were putting up Wagner recruitment posters and they got face identified and picked up and are now charged with espionage.
I don’t wish for any civilian deaths from use of unsafe airplanes. A responsible country would simply ground them which shows how little the Russian government values the lives of their citizens.
Look, it’s a sad thing, but countries that aggress against other countries with no good reason, harming innocent civilians and destabilizing entire regions, need to be held accountable. No matter how painful it is. The world should sanction them and make life very hard for them, and when they don’t, there’s been a big failure on a world scale.
OK, now that we’re done talking about the United States and our deplorable actions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and many other countries, I’ll start thinking of a comment regarding Russia.
While Iraq was certainly without much merit as a direct threat let’s not compare apples and oranges. Hussein was a tyrant who just some years before invaded and brought havoc to neighboring Kuwait. As well, created a severe risk in the region time and time again. Yes, the veil of WMDs as the reason was misplaced, but it’s hardly a comparison to Russia going into Ukraine.
As to Afghanistan, you must have issues with memory loss. They created the entire network of terrorism that led to 9/11. I think we were too weak and reasonable. The entire country should have been leveled and left in the dust.
Please spare us your weak arguments.
The invasion of Iraq did more to destabilize and destroy the region than anything Saddam did.
Yes.
That said, the nation we call Iraq should have never existed. The British basically cobbled together incompatible areas (like India and Pakistan) and turned what should have been three small nations into one bigger dysfunctional country. The USA overthrow of the government ended the dictatorship but exposed the rifts between the groups. Some have done better than others. Do you really think it’s a coincidence that the Kurdish autonomous region in the north runs fine while the rest does not? That’s because the Kurds more-or-less created their own state.
Thank you, Wikipedia, but that isn’t the point.
>countries that aggress against other countries with no good reason, harming innocent civilians and destabilizing entire regions, need to be held accountable.
So, the United States?
I’d assume if there are any fatalities Putin will try to somehow spin it as those people being patriots/martyrs who sacrificed their lives for Mother Russia.
American and every other country refusing to sell parts to Russia will be partly responsible IF a crash occurs. You can’t claim to be “humanitarians” and allow this to happen.
Meanwhile we continue to send billions to a failed comedian fighting a war his country cannot win.
F Putin, F the Ukraine and most of all F Zelenskyy!
Please, please, no accidents! I say this not from compassion for the Russian people. A crash will be a gift for Putin, providing another lie to justify his actions and point his poison fingers to the rest of the world.
It’s par for the course for Russia. They have a long history of prioritizing ego and pride over addressing safety issues. Some major disasters that come to mind: K-19 submarine incident, Chernobyl meltdown, and Kursk submarine disaster. They’re actually overdue for another disaster.
I took a few rides on Aeroflot in the final years of the Soviet Union. Doesn’t sound much different now. I remember flight attendants rushing to hand out brown paper bags to passengers as the plane taxied toward the runway. And not collecting them once used. Sitting in a sweltering plane on the tarmac, hearing a commotion and seeing a sweating guy who turned out to be the captain running down the aisle to the cockpit, slamming the door and firing up the engine literally seconds later. Pre-flight checklist or walk around? Don’t think so. Three-across seats not bolted to the floor. It was like sitting on a teeter-totter if the center seat was empty. Seriously. Coming shockingly close to other Aeroflot planes in mid-flight. Interesting that things haven’t changed in what they called the “workers paradise,” a wonderful place to visit, just remember to bring your own toilet paper.
John, you didn’t mention that They could just revert to the old USSR tactics; only night flights. Presumably to prevent you from photographing sensitive military facilities. We all knew it was because they didn’t want you to see the parts falling off.
you mention there are loopholes to sanctions that allow procuring parts in UAE, Turkey, etc. Those are both big aviation powerhouses. Do you have any more details why they can’t get all the parts they need from those countries? unwillingness to sell to aeroflot? supply chain constraints and own domestic carriers get first dibs?
Speaking from an aviation perspective, and ignoring the invasion itself… I actually don’t believe a crash is likely. Russian pilots are trained as well as pilots anywhere else on Earth, as are the mechanics. I think those flying the planes know a lot more than I do, and I suspect they’ll speak up or refuse to fly. To me, the two grounded planes in Turkey are a great example of that.
Lots of carriers are banned in the EU for “safety” reasons, but operate reliably and safely every day. Flying is incredibly safe, and I think it would take more than just a little bit of bending the rules to change that.
There’s probably nothing unusual about using parts from other planes. I’m sure its done all the time by all airlines.
Some of you guys are a bit more sociopathic than usual to be cheering for tragedy, civilian Russians or otherwise
Cannibalising of aircraft for spares is hardly a new or rare thing and has been a regular practice among Western airlines as well. Most notably, Air France took one of its Concordes out of service to use for spares but there are dozens of other examples.
Ye olde “Hangar Queen”.
When Iraq invaded Kuwait, Margaret Thatcher told George H. W. Bush that territorial aggression cannot stand. She said Don’t go wobbly, George.
A Russian airline named Red Wings? How droll.
Kinda sad, war that is. Nobody ever punished the USA for invading Iraq, Vietnam and a lot of other countries.
We deserved it. Hopefully the US has learned its lesson. Still Iraq =\= Ukraine.
When you’re a worldwide citizen like I am, you realize War is never right no matter by who started it. .
“It is unfortunate the Russian people don’t hold their leaders accountable for wars of aggression”
What about the U.S? What would you say about the American people not holding their leaders accountable for wars of aggression. Remember Panama, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, and all the smaller ones? What are you suggesting the American people do, although, there is no American people in the first place as living on the same rock does not mean we have anything in common,
The first aggressors in the current Ukraine conflict are the Ukrainians who launched a U.S. backed coup in 2014 that has resulted in the shelling and bombing of the Donbas for 9 years.
Anyway, to answer the main question, I think the first (probably fatal) Aeroflot crash is just around the corner. And I say first because that IMHO crash will be the first of many more to come over the next few months or years.
Sorry, it says “Anyway, to answer the main question…” because I was originally going to type something before my thoughts on the upcoming Aeroflot crash(es). Ignore the first part of my original post.
Yevgeny Prigozhin agrees with you
Lots of American companies still doing business in Russia. No outrage there, dear democracy spreading neocon? Don’t get upset at me assuming g things about you when you assumed a lot about me recently. Cheers.
https://som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain
You are a pathetic soul. Do you eat, sleep, and nut India all day long?
Oh look Philip morris, PepsiCo, Mars, Procter and Gamble, all US companies are also doing business in Russia. No outrage there? Govt shouldn’t sanction them? https://leave-russia.org/staying-companies