With the most consequential election in US history (according to the pundits and both campaigns) what could it mean for travel in 2025 and beyond?
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Too Close To Call
Forecasters, pundits and pollsters have all called this year’s US Presidential election between 45th President, Donald Trump, and sitting Vice President, Kamala Harris, too close to call. The most reputable polls have been deadlocked for weeks within the margin of error, though movement inside that margin has slid around some.
ABC’s 538 compiles a poll of polls to forecast the winner and runs 1,000 simulations, sometimes multiple times a day as new data is released. For the last week or so, each of those have forecasted a Trump victory but the simulations have become so close that it really is completely up for grabs. As of Saturday night, the last batch of 1,000 simulations had Trump winning 504 times compared to 494 (with two simulations resulting in a tie.) That’s tighter than earlier in the week when Trump was forecast to win nearly 100 more times than Harris.
No one knows how this will land, so here’s some conjecture.
What A Trump Win Means For Travel
Trump’s Department of Justice approved the JetBlue and American Airlines codesharing partnership known as the Northeast Alliance. This allowed the two to consolidate some of their flying and better utilize their fleets. One would have presumed that this coordination would have led to higher prices for consumers but due to a confluence of other concerns, it’s hard to say whether this is the case. Pricing during COVID and revenge travel following was inconsistent and outpaced a typical recession making it unclear as to whether consumers benefited from the alliance.
Spirit would likely find a suitor as it seeks to avoid bankruptcy and the Trump DOJ/DOT mostly had a laissez-faire approach to business choices for carriers. Frontier has been interested in Spirit again, and in the right environment others might be more open to combining forces. United, for example, just leased 40 Airbus 321-NEO aircraft and JetBlue may be able to find financing if this time around it was seen as an effort to save and grow the two carriers and avoid layoffs and bankruptcies.
The Alaska-Hawaiian tie up is closed and unlike the NEA, the new administration would be unlikely to unwind this based on the 2016-2020 Trump term. Future mergers and acquisitions are less likely to face scrutiny under Trump.
What A Harris Win Means For Travel
Airline mergers have been a mixed bag under the Biden-Harris term. The Spirit Airlines acquisition by JetBlue was not only blocked, but the DOJ sued and in a surprising measure, it did not offer a concessionary path that would allow the transaction to go through. However, Alaska’s purchase of Hawaiian (undoubtedly a more like-for-like outcome) was permitted almost without resistance. The only concessions were the protection of some intra-island flights and keeping the value of miles intact for Hawaiian members, something Secretary of Transportation, Pete Buttigieg, has made a concentration of his administration.
Harris would likely retain the Secretary in his current role, given the continuity of the administration. As such, the pursuit of loyalty programs, well-intentioned but misguided as it may be, would also likely continue. In the one area where the DOT/DOJ was able to affect change came when the carriers wanted to combine. While its case against the four largest carriers may be a fool’s errand, if it can find other ways to execute its will, we could see meaningful change for consumers.
President Joe Biden went after junk fees and targeted hotel resort charges, which haven’t gone away but in most states must be disclosed as part of the fare. However, it mostly state Attorneys General that went after chains like Marriott, fought them in court and won to force the disclosure. The chains mostly disclose unavoidable fare components by default now, and cruise lines have followed suit due to a California law. With Secretary Buttigieg in a more active role as of late, state laws behind him, and support from the President, it’s possible consumers find a more transparent pricing structure across the travel sector with greater protection of their points and miles.
It could also mean that travel will become more expensive. For example, if the Harris administration is a continuation of the Biden administration with regard to travel (she hasn’t spoken much on the topic), Spirit likely won’t be permitted to merge reducing a low cost carrier from the market. If loyalty programs aren’t allowed to make changes, they will likely become harder to earn making it more difficult to redeem and offset travel costs.
The Most Likely Outcome
While the presidential race looks razor thin, the Senate appears to be all but a lock for the Republicans with 89 out of 100 simulations resulting in a majority. For congressional races, it’s just 52 to 48 simulations that suggest Republican control of the house but the estimate is 218 seats to 217 which could easily flip the other way too. Why does this matter? If Harris is to win the White House and the House, meaningful legislation could face opposition in the Senate. The only way in which any significant changes occur, at least until the midterms, would be if either party were to sweep the election and that seems incredibly unlikely at the moment.
Conclusion
In a tight race, it’s hard to predict how travel will change in the fallout of the election. However, without the House and Senate too, executive power will limit any large scale changes. Based on prior administrations (Biden-Harris, Trump-Pence), Harris seems to have a more active DOT initiative targeting airlines and hotel chains. The results of those efforts long term could factor significantly for travelers. That said, Trump’s live and let live approach could keep travel growth despite an inevitable slow down.
What do you think? How will the election affect travelers?
Can we keep this comment section free of partisan propaganda and just focus on government policy?
Treasure the First Amendment .
If one were in China , and pleaded for a free press , like Jimmy Lai , they would be shackled in prison .
I treasure the 1st amendment very much so. And appreciate that we don’t suffer like the Chinese, Russians, and most other countries around the globe.
But we can debate politics on many forums. We don’t need to stuff it into every post that’s put up.
Let’s not vote for a red neck racist who also wants to take away women’s rights. Okay, thanks
This election in a nutshell: let’s vote for the least evil of two villians.
Those who are from a party that cannot define woman, should not be speaking of women.
Ask women who are in any sports, they know which party is for women and against women.
The party that forced the untested vaccines on all individuals(with the exempt of lawmakers and other special groups)should not be speaking of “my body my wish”.
Hypocrites!
“red neck racist” Would that be the New York real estate tycoon or the Oakland middle-class DA?
If there is MARTIAL LAW, no one will be able to travel without a good reason. Your travel rights will be suspended.
No country will want Americans in it after idiot trump bans all vaccines
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna178570
RFK Jr’s book has been credited for a resurgence of childhood diseases that were almost finished. As I recall about 2,000 deaths ( nit pickers check with WHO) were tied to these proven lies. Of course he now has apologized. Trump wants to have a Kennedy for status. Because that’s what matters to him. Not people. Not children. Not you.
But… I’ve been told I will be protected whether I like it or not.
It’s rare for a cabinet secretary to stay in seat for two terms. Do some research. There’s very little chance sec B would stay on through a Harris term.
When Kamala compared Donald Trump to Adolf Hitler, I did some research and noticed similarities that are too striking and troubling to ignore:
1. Adolf Hitler was an artist. Donald Trump, coincidentally, collects art.
2. Adolf Hitler was a vegetarian. Donald Trump worked at McDonald’s, which does not serve real meat.
3. Adolf Hitler, like Donald Trump, never won an election.
4. Hitler died in 1945. Trump was born in 1946.
5. Both Adolf Hitler and Donald Trump use he/him/his pronouns.
And both used children to promote propaganda. ( Hitler Youth and Turning Point USA a youth troll farm right now).
Let’s not vote for a woman who said she isn’t gonna do anything specifically black people (on video) a few years ago and is now doing things specifically for illegal immigrants.
If you’re going to talk about policy implications, you should also really discuss the consequences of the rollback of safety regulations and the potential for restrictions on interstate and international travel for women who might be pregnant or whose fathers/husbands simply don’t want to allow them to travel freely.
Airline mergers are going to be the least of our problems.
I do think USA deserves another Trump term. Americans look down on other countries thinking they all high and mighty. Who’s the shithole country now?
Your repeated introduction of the political crap may get the clicks you can show advertisers but it’s is going to ruin this once-serious travel blog. What a shame.