Election Fallout: What Could Change In US Travel

With the most consequential election in US history (according to the pundits and both campaigns) what could it mean for travel in 2025 and beyond?

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Too Close To Call

Forecasters, pundits and pollsters have all called this year’s US Presidential election between 45th President, Donald Trump, and sitting Vice President, Kamala Harris, too close to call. The most reputable polls have been deadlocked for weeks within the margin of error, though movement inside that margin has slid around some.

ABC’s 538 compiles a poll of polls to forecast the winner and runs 1,000 simulations, sometimes multiple times a day as new data is released. For the last week or so, each of those have forecasted a Trump victory but the simulations have become so close that it really is completely up for grabs. As of Saturday night, the last batch of 1,000 simulations had Trump winning 504 times compared to 494 (with two simulations resulting in a tie.) That’s tighter than earlier in the week when Trump was forecast to win nearly 100 more times than Harris.

No one knows how this will land, so here’s some conjecture.

What A Trump Win Means For Travel

Trump’s Department of Justice approved the JetBlue and American Airlines codesharing partnership known as the Northeast Alliance. This allowed the two to consolidate some of their flying and better utilize their fleets. One would have presumed that this coordination would have led to higher prices for consumers but due to a confluence of other concerns, it’s hard to say whether this is the case. Pricing during COVID and revenge travel following was inconsistent and outpaced a typical recession making it unclear as to whether consumers benefited from the alliance.

Spirit would likely find a suitor as it seeks to avoid bankruptcy and the Trump DOJ/DOT mostly had a laissez-faire approach to business choices for carriers. Frontier has been interested in Spirit again, and in the right environment others might be more open to combining forces. United, for example, just leased 40 Airbus 321-NEO aircraft and JetBlue may be able to find financing if this time around it was seen as an effort to save and grow the two carriers and avoid layoffs and bankruptcies.

The Alaska-Hawaiian tie up is closed and unlike the NEA, the new administration would be unlikely to unwind this based on the 2016-2020 Trump term. Future mergers and acquisitions are less likely to face scrutiny under Trump.

What A Harris Win Means For Travel

Airline mergers have been a mixed bag under the Biden-Harris term. The Spirit Airlines acquisition by JetBlue was not only blocked, but the DOJ sued and in a surprising measure, it did not offer a concessionary path that would allow the transaction to go through. However, Alaska’s purchase of Hawaiian (undoubtedly a more like-for-like outcome) was permitted almost without resistance. The only concessions were the protection of some intra-island flights and keeping the value of miles intact for Hawaiian members, something Secretary of Transportation, Pete Buttigieg, has made a concentration of his administration.

Harris would likely retain the Secretary in his current role, given the continuity of the administration. As such, the pursuit of loyalty programs, well-intentioned but misguided as it may be, would also likely continue. In the one area where the DOT/DOJ was able to affect change came when the carriers wanted to combine. While its case against the four largest carriers may be a fool’s errand, if it can find other ways to execute its will, we could see meaningful change for consumers.

President Joe Biden went after junk fees and targeted hotel resort charges, which haven’t gone away but in most states must be disclosed as part of the fare. However, it mostly state Attorneys General that went after chains like Marriott, fought them in court and won to force the disclosure. The chains mostly disclose unavoidable fare components by default now, and cruise lines have followed suit due to a California law. With Secretary Buttigieg in a more active role as of late, state laws behind him, and support from the President, it’s possible consumers find a more transparent pricing structure across the travel sector with greater protection of their points and miles.

It could also mean that travel will become more expensive. For example, if the Harris administration is a continuation of the Biden administration with regard to travel (she hasn’t spoken much on the topic), Spirit likely won’t be permitted to merge reducing a low cost carrier from the market. If loyalty programs aren’t allowed to make changes, they will likely become harder to earn making it more difficult to redeem and offset travel costs.

The Most Likely Outcome

While the presidential race looks razor thin, the Senate appears to be all but a lock for the Republicans with 89 out of 100 simulations resulting in a majority. For congressional races, it’s just 52 to 48 simulations that suggest Republican control of the house but the estimate is 218 seats to 217 which could easily flip the other way too. Why does this matter? If Harris is to win the White House and the House, meaningful legislation could face opposition in the Senate. The only way in which any significant changes occur, at least until the midterms, would be if either party were to sweep the election and that seems incredibly unlikely at the moment.

Conclusion

In a tight race, it’s hard to predict how travel will change in the fallout of the election. However, without the House and Senate too, executive power will limit any large scale changes. Based on prior administrations (Biden-Harris, Trump-Pence), Harris seems to have a more active DOT initiative targeting airlines and hotel chains. The results of those efforts long term could factor significantly for travelers. That said, Trump’s live and let live approach could keep travel growth despite an inevitable slow down.

What do you think? How will the election affect travelers? 

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