While airlines pull back service between the US and Canada amid trade and tariff uncertainty, now might be the best time to book flights from Canada.
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Tariffs, Threats, Uncertainty, Election
Canada, and now the whole world, has been subject to tariff threats and implementation from the United States. Greenland and Canada have both been the target of US President Trump’s annexation ambitions one way or another and while it’s not clear if these concerns can be taken seriously, it’s sent markets wild. On top of that, Former Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, resigned his post after 10 years at the helm of the G7 nation. After failing to secure a deal at Mar-a-Lago before Trump even took [his second] oath of office, he found support had crumbled at home (though the Liberal party has seen a resurgence in national popularity since then.)
The country now faces a snap election at the end of this month, April 28th, 2025 in which Mark Carney has an 83% chance of winning.
With all of the uncertainty around US-Canada (really US-everybody else) relations, airlines have reduced frequencies between the two countries for the foreseeable future due to a drop in demand.
“Canadian carriers have seen softening demand amid geopolitical tensions between Canada and the USA – largely related to a potentially escalating trade war – and the rise of the “buy Canada” movement encouraging Canadians to spend domestically.
“Our goal is to fly where our customers want to travel, and this is a moment [where] Canada is at the top of many people’s list,” says Kevin Jackson, Porter’s president. “We are adding routes and increasing flights in regions across the country to meet this demand.” – Flight Global
Canadian Discount
One Toronto hotel executive I met with recently mentioned how this is the best time to come to Canada – not necessarily due to the “Buy Canadian” push but because of the currency exchange rates particularly with respect to the US. I let the thought marinate for a bit while I shopped for a variety of flights in business class over the last few weeks and alternated departure points including both US and Canadian airports.
For what it’s worth, the Canadian Dollar is only down 4.4% against the US Dollar since the US election when this all arose shortly after. At the time of writing, $1 USD buys $1.42 CAD, a meaningful increase over historical levels but not a dramatic departure having exceeded the current exchange rate during COVID and three days prior to Trump’s first inauguration, January 18th, 2016.
When pricing flights from Toronto or New York, Seattle or Vancouver flights can be as much as 33% less even when connecting to the same flights. For those traveling with several passengers in business class or first can stand to save a considerable amount of money.
For example, the cheapest days to fly in January from New York or Toronto to Bangkok on the same flights face a 20% surcharge when departing from New York over Toronto.
We see something similar to Tokyo in September.
Seattle is worse, hitting around 33% cheaper when flying from Vancouver over Seattle and a far superior product.
Drivers, Major Hubs Have A Cheat Code
Positioning to Canada to fly for less will eat into any savings (unless one uses miles to get there, and cash from Canada onward) but those flying from major hubs maintain an advantage with inexpensive flights still available despite lower capacity.
But the real advantage is for those who can drive. New York to Toronto is not a convenient drive, but many position to other cities for better flight prices. Buffalo passengers would be far wiser driving to Toronto Pearson than commuting to New York, Boston, or Chicago. Seattleites have the most to gain by driving shortly north to Vancouver.
In some of the examples I have found, a party of four could save several thousand dollars simply by driving across the border and flying from Canadian airports whether it’s to Europe, Asia, or beyond. This is something mid-sized airports far from the border can’t deliver but those close or from large hubs, can. For example, positioning from Los Angeles to Vancouver or Toronto and Miami to Toronto are less than $200 roundtrip for coordinating flights.
Mexico Doesn’t Offer The Same Opportunity
The Mexican Peso has suffered far more due to the same economic pressures down 25% since April of last year but only about 3.9% of that drop was since the US election result in November. However, the same discount is not true for Mexican departures. San Diego offers better prices than Tijuana, once a sweet spot for Americans living on the border. Los Angeles and Tijuana charge about the same amount for business class flights to Tokyo, though with the added benefit of non-stop flights on Singapore rather than connecting in Mexico City to Aeromexico. This makes this advantage uniquely Canadian.
Conclusion
Whether it’s an economic decision or to support a neighbor, premium flyers stand to save considerable money by flying from Canada at the moment. Canada as a country, and her airlines would likely welcome the business. And for US carriers charging more – especially those on the same flights like the American Airlines/Royal Jordanian example above – I won’t feel any guilt at all paying thousands less and flying from the north first. After all, I’ve driven to Washington DC (about four hours) to hop on flights far cheaper than from my home in Pittsburgh, Toronto isn’t that much farther.
What do you think?
Anyone spending $15-22k on a flight needs their head examined. And obviously should have zero concerns about anything Trump is doing as they have money to burn.
And don’t give me the “business” travel excuse, companies spending this type money on flights for employees need to be called out because they are F’ing their customers if they have money to waste like this.
THIS is the type nonsense people should be in the streets peacefully protesting! No fan of Luigi or his actions but this story semi explains why some lunatics hate corporate executives.
As mentioned in the post, those prices are for four people or just under $4,000 for the Canadian fares.
I’m with Dave on this one. I’m reading this on my phone so it’s small type but I didn’t catch anything specifying the number of passengers.
That aside, while I suppose this is a fairly good deal, I rather suspect that most readers of this blog are oriented towards miles rather than forking out cash for intercontinental business class trips. I’m towards the upper end of the income spectrum but barring some catastrophic emergency I simply can’t see spending $8,000 for my wife and I to fly business class. Not only is that precisely what miles are for but I’d rather utilize those funds for hotels, meals, sightseeing, etc.
Well thanks to your buddy Trump CRASHING THE WORLD ECONONY (futures tading halted because its down so much), nobody will be flying anywhere soon.
Thanks for your vote to destroy the world
You’re welcome, you deserve it.
No regrets.
Great fresh perspective, always appreciate reading thinking that is not commonly found. Good thoughts given I have access to a NH base to drive from. I’ve traveled exclusively on miles for 30 years now, so the cash purchase discount doesn’t help a whole lot, but it’s nice even when I just consider the taxes/fees from an Aeroplan booking.
Parking at YVR is expensive and reports of car break-ins are common. In the current climate, I would not want to leave a vehicle with a U.S. license plate at the YVR airport.
Interesting point, but you write “three days prior to Trump’s first inauguration, January 18th, 2016.” Trump’s first inauguration was January 20, 2017, not 2016 (and most people would call January 18 two days before January 20, not three).
Yesterday we picked up two business class tickets from SIN to YUL on AC and NH for $3500 return. Pretty pleased.
Sometimes, two different airports in the US can have substantial fare differences. For example, n/s flights to Paris from Detroit are ~$8000, while from Chicago they are ~4000. Its not necessarily about currency differences — you are comparing different routings.
I haven’t been reading LALF as often but glad to see Kyle’s level of quality insights hasn’t changed.
@NateNate – the commenter so great, they had to name him twice. Yes of course each airport and route will be different but in your example you compare (without real numbers, of course) Detroit and O’Hare but the difference is that O’Hare has significant international competition where Detroit does not. Detroit is significantly smaller than Chicago with fewer international passengers and very little nonstop O&D traffic to Paris, Chicago is different. Smaller city = less traffic = less competition = higher prices. While Toronto is smaller than New York City, the prices remain lower New York, a difficult challenge. What’s more, the connecting flight in the Bangkok example shows an added American Airlines leg from Toronto to New York and then the exact same codeshare flights via Royal Jordanian as the New York – Bangkok option. While it’s not uncommon to see this added positioning flight using the clearly preferred route from AA, what is odd is the lower price point.
You kind of aggressive proved my point, but I’m not sure why.