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Home » Travel » Will A Fourth Wave Sink Transatlantic Travel Rebound?
EuropeTravel

Will A Fourth Wave Sink Transatlantic Travel Rebound?

Matthew Klint Posted onOctober 28, 2021November 14, 2023 73 Comments

a plane flying in the sky

Despite vaccination progress, Europe appears headed for a fourth wave of COVID-19, with many countries reporting the highest number of new cases in several months. Will the USA, where cases are currently falling, still open next month as planned?

Fourth Wave In Europe Threatens Transatlantic Travel Rebound

Last week, Morocco banned flights from Germany, Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Morocco’s Health Ministry noted “the need to avoid possible a relapse of serious and critical cases and COVID-19-related deaths, which have occurred in several European countries.”

Upon decisions of national authorities and following the pandemic situation, flights from/to Germany, Netherlands and the UK are suspended from today, Wednesday 20th Oct at 23:59.

— Royal Air Maroc (@RAM_Maroc) October 20, 2021

Yesterday, Germany reported its highest number of new daily cases since April (over 28,000). Cases are retreating a bit in the United Kingdom, but COVID-19 hospital admissions reached their highest level since February. In the Netherlands, cases are rising quickly and the government is looking into reintroducing restrictions, including new social distancing measures and restrictions on bars and restaurants.

With that backdrop, Politico offers an interesting analysis of the fourth wave likely hitting Europe, noting that countries like Malta, Portugal, and Spain, where more than 80% are fully vaccinated, are experiencing the lowest number of new cases. Those countries also enjoy warmer clients and the last 20 months have shown that COVID-19 appears to thrive in cooler environments when folks spend more time indoors.

Meanwhile, countries like Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, and UK, which boast vaccination rates of 60-70%, are falling behind. Moving east, countries with lower vaccination rates are seeing more hospitalizations and deaths than their neighbors.

The point is simple: this is not over. And when a new wave hits Europe, it usually hits the United States after.

With these alarming numbers, will the Biden Administration delay the re-opening of U.S. borders on November 8, 2021? I tend to think the answer is no, because beyond direct health concerns are economic concerns that do impact health concerns (mental and emotional health).

But don’t view Morocco as merely an aberration. Here’s what I expect:

  • We will see restrictions on movement and gathering re-introduced across Europe
  • Tourism may restricted if case numbers continue to rise
  • U.S. borders will open as planned, but are subject to closure if cases begin to spike in the USA as they did last winter

An interesting tidbit I hear from a friend in Vienna. Cases are rising in Austria too and a lockdown is being discussed…which would only impact unvaccinated people. While I fully support the rights of business owners to demand proof of vaccination from customers, I am wholly against locking people in their homes who refuse a vaccination. At the same time, the numbers do not lie: vaccination are not our salvation, but they work very well.

CONCLUSION

Watch Europe closely in the coming weeks. The trend line is not encouraging and I sense more lockdowns are restrictions are coming. And that means a rise in cases will hit the USA too as we enter the colder months. But folks, please also look at the vaccinated versus unvaccinated numbers. The story is clear: vaccinations are safe and vaccination work.

image: British Airways

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About Author

Matthew Klint

Matthew is an avid traveler who calls Los Angeles home. Each year he travels more than 200,000 miles by air and has visited more than 135 countries. Working both in the aviation industry and as a travel consultant, Matthew has been featured in major media outlets around the world and uses his Live and Let's Fly blog to share the latest news in the airline industry, commentary on frequent flyer programs, and detailed reports of his worldwide travel.

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73 Comments

  1. Jay Mitchell Reply
    October 28, 2021 at 1:55 pm

    I wonder whether just as many European countries waited until the end of the summer tourist season to tighten restrictions on Americans (or foreigners in general), the US might allow Europeans to come for the peak Holiday season and then tighten restrictions (if warranted by the epidemiological situation) in early 2022.

    • Matthew Klint Reply
      October 28, 2021 at 3:29 pm

      It could well be. We will soon see.

  2. Joe Biden Reply
    October 28, 2021 at 2:22 pm

    We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by, uhhh, the, you know, you know the thing.

  3. Alan Brint Reply
    October 28, 2021 at 2:23 pm

    Why are you against lockdowns against the unvaccinated? I don’t understand your logic and wish to know more.

    • Joe Reply
      October 28, 2021 at 3:20 pm

      Everyone is responsible for themselves. I’m vaccinated and if you want to stick me on a plane where everyone else is unvaccinated– I don’t care. Isn’t that the whole point of the vaccine? Same thing each year when I get the flu vaccine. IDC if I’m around unvaccinated flu people, bc I’m a constant hand washer and I improved my diet to improve my immune system bc of Covid. All I can do is worry about protecting myself.

      I don’t understand why people want to limit and lockdown those who are unvaccinated. If you have a vaccine, why would you care what the unvaccinated do? IDC if people drink, smoke, do drugs, eat fast food and sugar every day and are 600 lbs. IDC if people share needles or have unprotected sex with strangers. It’s their life, all I can control is my own life. I don’t tell those people they are making poor/risky health choices.

      I’m more likely to get sick from food poisoning or sick bc I went out to eat and someone working there didn’t wash their hands and spread some illness. Do I need to ask for proof that the restaurant staff washed their hands before preparing and serving my food? There is risk to everything in life, and YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOU— others are not responsible for you. So if you are concerned– Vax up–lose weight, stop smoking, eat healthy and you will be fine.

      Worry about your own darn life– stop worrying and stop trying to control other people’s lives. That really is sick for people who want to control other people’s lives.

      • MaKr Reply
        October 28, 2021 at 3:55 pm

        No. That’s not the point of the vaccine. People like you have zero understanding of probabilistic thinking. And FYI, those diet changes you’ve made? They didn’t do $#1t for your immune system. Don’t kid yourself

        • Ben Reply
          October 28, 2021 at 6:35 pm

          @MaKr

          Then what is the point of getting a vaccine? Why do you get a flu vaccine? Hepatitis B? Any vaccine?

          Would it be better for everyone to get a flu vaccine every year? Yes. Everyone to get Hepatitis B around the world? Yes. But other than smallpox which was super deadly, people/countries around the world have not found it necessary to force people to get vaccinated against their will.

          I’m also guessing if Covid was as deadly as small pox, the hold outs would be minuscule.

        • AlohaDaveKennedy Reply
          October 28, 2021 at 11:59 pm

          A healthy diet certainly reduces the comorbidity risk of developing some forms of diabetes and the comorbidity risk of being overweight. A healthy diet certainly can assist your immune system.

    • Matthew Klint Reply
      October 28, 2021 at 4:01 pm

      Alan, I believe that people are irresponsible idiots who do not get vaccinated. The evidence is overwhelming clear: getting vaccinated greatly reduces your likelihood of contracting COVID-19 and greatly mitigates symptoms if you do. Another family friend died last week…she was unvaccinated. Horrible news, but particularly horrible because it was probably unnecessary…she had co-morbidities, but I suspect the vaccine would have helped her.

      At the same time, the idea of mandatory vaccinations by the government is a no-go for me, at least for right now. The issue of bodily integrity and the idea that the state can have such intimate power over the person is deeply troubling, even if for noble reasons. Of course the balance is a fundamental right to be protected from the spread of disease. I get that. This is a complicated issue.

      I also think the Court made a strong argument in Jacobson v. Massachusetts (1905) when the issue of the day was mandatory smallpox vaccines:

      “The liberty secured by the Constitution of the United States does not import an absolute right in each person to be at all times, and in all circumstances, wholly freed from restraint, nor is it an element in such liberty that one person, or a minority of persons residing in any community and enjoying the benefits of its local government, should have power to dominate the majority when supported in their action by the authority of the State.”

      I do understand that the vaccine is not foolproof and therefore unvaccinated people put even vaccinated people at heightened risk. But I don’t want to live in a society in which “papers please” are required to enter buildings. There’s a human and social cost to that too and it is not a road I am comfortable going down. Certainly history validates that point.

      Instead, I continue to implore everyone to get a vaccine and note that those who refuse subject themselves to needless risk. But rather than shun them, I would let them die, if only for them to see that their “freedom” was actually a torture chamber.

      All that to say, there may reach a point where I change my mind. Thanks for letting me share my struggle.

      • Stuart Reply
        October 28, 2021 at 4:09 pm

        This. I think should have been a post in itself. Perfectly written and correct.

      • Marissa Reply
        October 28, 2021 at 6:59 pm

        Actually Matthew, these days vaccines don’t do a heck of a lot to reduce the probability of infection. There are lots of recent papers on the subject–e.g.,: https://els-jbs-prod-cdn.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/s1473309921006484-1635425926927.pdf. Their real utility is preventing hospitalization and severe covid.

        • Derek Reply
          October 28, 2021 at 9:33 pm

          Perhaps not the MRNA vaccines, which wane in efficacy with time, but the JNJ one had transmission as an end point and found it was 2/3 effective at stopping the spread with one dose. It’s higher after 2

      • MaKr Reply
        October 28, 2021 at 9:57 pm

        “But I don’t want to live in a society in which “papers please” are required to enter buildings.”
        So you are opposed to requiring tickets for sporting events? Passing security to enter an airport? And then you imply in this same comment that you would let them die – so you would require vaccination papers to get medical care?
        Give me a break Matthew. Sometimes you package your idealism with a whole heap of naivete. The ugliness of the” show me your papers” is that it was used to intimidate those of color, ie something they had no control over. This issue is about choice. If you choose not to be vaxxed, you’re making a choice not to be allowed in certain places. Get vaxxed and ur welcomed back in. This wasn’t an option for Black people in the late 19th century who were asked for their papers… Disappointing, man

        • Matthew Klint Reply
          October 28, 2021 at 10:54 pm

          Are you really analogizing the voluntary choice of entering an airport or sporting event to a government fiat requiring unvaccinated people to stay in their homes? That’s what I am talking about – that is what I am told is under consideration in Austria.

          When I spoke about “papers please” I wasn’t referring to black people. I was referring to the Soviet Union and to some degree China today, which requires papers for domestic movement. That’s not a country I want to live in. If a shopkeeper wants to discriminate against the unvaccinated, then fine by me…they are not a protected class. But the idea that a vast new government apparatus is necessary to protect the vaccinated from the unvaccinated strikes me as dangerous. It is like the war on terrorism…the antidote has the potential to become worse than the disease. In the case of Afghanistan and Iraq, it certainly was.

          If health care has to be rationed, I absolutely would favor those who are vaccinated ahead of those who are not even if it means unplugging the ventilator.

          Come on, man. You’ve read history and you know that asking for papers wasn’t confined to black people in Jim Crow America. I’m not talking about restaurants refusing customers…I’m talking about people being confined to house arrest “for their own safety.” Nope. Not something I support.

          • cargocult
            October 29, 2021 at 12:28 pm

            What about letting fat folx die before not fat ones? It is overwhelmingly a choice to be fat. Sorry, to be a person with obesity. Why does the public health establishment not hammer home the fact that fat is the real killer? Why do the media not publish age-stratified death statistics? What about comorbidities? Could it be that the young and fit are at very low risk of dying and we should have been concentrating on shielding the old and infirm from the very beginning, as was standard procedure for a century or more? As of today, only 558 children are reported by the CDC to have died from COVID-19 in the US over the course of the entire pandemic. Think of the children! Let’s inject them all posthaste with the same novel vaccine, long-term studies be damned!

  4. Slappy Reply
    October 28, 2021 at 2:23 pm

    It is becoming clear these vaccines are not very effective. A simple look at hospitalizations in the US show it’s about on par to where we were in February…yet over 2/3 of adults are vaccinated. Vaccines will not be a viable long-term solution.

    If you look at Norway who has 80%+ adult vaccination rates, they are seeing cases higher than any time in the last 6 months.

    The sooner we accept that getting and staying healthy is the best way to combat this virus, the sooner we will be prepared to move on with our lives.

    By the way, I am vaccinated, but don’t see a strong case for a booster or continual jabs as all it is doing is delaying the inevitable, which is a date with Covid sometime in my future.

    • Matt Reply
      October 28, 2021 at 4:43 pm

      This just isn’t true. Significant majority of hospitalizations are unvaccinated.

      “Between Jan. 1 and Aug. 30, about 99 percent of hospital admissions were among those who hadn’t been fully inoculated”
      https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-hospitalizations-nonvaccinated

      PA Dept of Health says 75% of hospitalizations are unvaccinated there.
      https://www.fox43.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/vaccinated-breakthrough-cases-shots-covid-coronavirus-vaccine-unvaccinated-pennsylvania-hospitalization-death/521-6b1869b7-9348-41fc-870b-3c3c216697a1

      CDC says “During April 4–June 19, fully vaccinated persons accounted for 5% of cases, 7% of hospitalizations, and 8% of deaths overall; these percentages were higher during June 20–July 17 (18%, 14%, and 16%, respectively).”
      https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm

      I’m no statistician or a doctor and I’m sure numbers fluctuate based on hahah factors you’re tracking in a dataset but a simple googling will show you many accredited sources showing that the vaccines are very effective at keeping people out of the hospital and/or dying.

      • Slappy Reply
        October 28, 2021 at 9:36 pm

        Agree that these vaccines were effective for a few months after the jab, but I’d like to see more data at 6+ months and a split of hospitalizations of vaccinated/unvaccinated.

        Data in those studies referenced is somewhat flawed since vaccines weren’t available to all 18+ until April, so sample size it’s great to show long term effectiveness. Compound that with the time needed for vaccine to take effect and you can add another month or two as a baseline time to start tracking the mix.

  5. Dick Bupkiss Reply
    October 28, 2021 at 2:28 pm

    Get fully vaxxed, or stay the f*** home. Period. Yes, please, can we have some more of that?

    The anti-vaxx idiots are gonna act up, howl at the moon, and carry on — they already do, they already are, they will do this anyway, regardless of whatever small measures are taken that might inconvenience them. It’s not about the requirements. It’s about THEM. They just act up, and if you stop enforcing mandates, they will find some other excuse to justify acting up.

    So stop coddling them, stop making excuses for them, stop making it easy for them to act like a spoiled 4-year-old (apologies to all the spoiled 4-year-olds out there for the unfair comparison).

    Quit f***ing around. This only ends when everybody’s jabbed. Let’s get there.

    • Christian Reply
      October 28, 2021 at 4:52 pm

      I’d be more agreeable on coddling the fringe anti-vaxxers if they were willing to do what’s necessary to avoid becoming plague rats by masking at all times in public, volunteering for contact tracing, and always distancing. Instead they cheerfully want to get and share Covid with the rest of us.

    • AlohaDaveKennedy Reply
      October 29, 2021 at 12:07 am

      COVID only ends when everyone in the world has been jabbed. It ain’t over until the fat lady in some obscure corner of the world sings! Until then it will keep coming around like a Let’s Go Brandon chant at a stadium.

    • cargocult Reply
      October 29, 2021 at 12:02 pm

      Dick Bupkiss is much like his comrade UA-CCP in his parroting of the public health establishment’s talking points. What do these folx make of the data published my the UK government showing that infection rates for those aged 40-79 are higher among the vaccinated than those who are not? (see page 14)

      https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1016465/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_36.pdf

      What do our science-following comrades have to say regarding original antigenic sin in the context of universal vaccination with novel vaccines?

      https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/more-on-original-antigenic-sin-and
      https://www.totalhealth.co.uk/blog/increased-covid-infections-vaccinated-caused-original-antigenic-sin
      https://www.statnews.com/2021/04/16/next-generation-covid-19-vaccines-are-supposed-to-be-better-some-experts-worry-they-could-be-worse/
      https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/infection-control-and-hospital-epidemiology/article/original-antigenic-sin-a-potential-threat-beyond-the-development-of-booster-vaccination-against-novel-sarscov2-variants/C8F4B9BE9E77EB566C71E98553579506
      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8290366/
      https://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/mSphere.00056-21

      My body, my choice, amirite, comrades? Remember, Nazis had pieces of flair that they made the Jews wear. Fight the power!

      • UA-NYC Reply
        October 29, 2021 at 9:36 pm

        Anti-vaxxer, no more Italy trips for you! Your type of filth aren’t wanted. 7B shots globally, somehow no one is growing a third eye or having their hearts explode. #science

      • cargocult Reply
        October 30, 2021 at 7:22 am

        UA-CCP can’t respond to the substance of my post, so he spews more insults. He so wishes I would be banned from Italy, and yet that will never happen. Keep dreaming about Italy and get pumped for your work trip to London while jumping on those boxes while I have crudi in Puglia, pizza in Napoli and cicchetti in Venezia. I’d say you should read about original antigenic sin and mass immunization across generations, but I know you won’t bother to read anything that doesn’t come from the Ministry of Public Enlightenment and Propaganda.

  6. MaKr Reply
    October 28, 2021 at 2:34 pm

    Kind of a mealy mouthed conclusion there… You’re against lockdowns directed at the unvacccinated, and vaccines aren’t our salvation, but they work well… A little critical thinking, please – do any of the numbers cited refer to hospitalizations broken down by vaxxed vs unvaxxed? How many more months of evidence do you need to see? By orders of magnitude, this is a pandemic of the unvaxxed. Are we seeing gobs of vaccinated people requiring hospital beds or dying? Not at all. Stop giving any justification to the bad faith arguments. Yes, immunity will get us out of the pandemic. Either via vaccination or infection. So if ur unvaxxed, ur just waiting for the inevitable. These people are dragging this damn thing out (at least in the West).

    • Matthew Klint Reply
      October 28, 2021 at 4:05 pm

      I argue in that vein because I’m tried of the “vaccines don’t work” strawman. Thus, I defuse that issue by noting at the outset that vaccines are not 100% effective…and were never sold as 100% effective. But we indeed see they are highly effective and I have consistently called for everyone with a functioning brain to get vaccinated…and I continue to make that call.

      • cargocult Reply
        October 29, 2021 at 12:03 pm

        https://grammarist.com/usage/defuse-diffuse/

  7. stogieguy7 Reply
    October 28, 2021 at 2:43 pm

    Since vaccinated people can also transmit COVID, this tyranny against those who choose not to get it is absurd. Setting the example: I got the vax, and I did it because it vastly lowers my odds of hospitalization or serious complications if I get the ‘vid. And, I really don’t care whether you get the vax or not. Why people have to be control freaks astounds me. And this virus porn! Which clearly the PM of NZ is absolutely addicted to.

    People, thanks to Fauci and the creeps in the PRC, we have a new strain of virus in the world that will be with us forever more. We’d better get used to living with it without crapping our pants every time a free thinker chooses not to wear a cloth face diaper.

  8. derek Reply
    October 28, 2021 at 3:19 pm

    Could very well sink it.

    I used to travel like a road warrior for a number of years. Just before the pandemic, I was at the “frequent business travel” level but no longer a road warrior, which I am glad. It was a level to enjoy business travel but not every week.

    Now, unless they extend elite status a lot, I will eventually be cattle class.

    With more vaccinations, I am not longer at the “emergency travel only” level but at the “extremely important business travel level”, which is essentially zero for now. Any minor change in pandemic won’t spur me to travel. I wish it would end but it will only get better, not completely go away.

  9. Jorge Paez Reply
    October 28, 2021 at 3:40 pm

    Sorry Matthew, those unvaccinated people who your heart bleeds for should be locked away.
    They have the potential to kill my children and the children of others.
    Their rights end where my begin…..

    • Grass Reply
      October 28, 2021 at 3:51 pm

      @Jorge Paez: You are deranged if you think this way — seriously seek help because the last 2 years has permanently altered your brain chemistry. Turn off the news and social media and go breath in fresh air Jorge

    • Matthew Klint Reply
      October 28, 2021 at 4:15 pm

      I feel sorry for adults who are unvaccinated. I know many of them and think they have been hoodwinked. I don’t gloat that I am smarter than them for being vaccinated. I just continue to implore them to be vaccinated. But I’d rather put my own 1 year old and 5 year old at heightened risk then have another civil war.

    • Ben Reply
      October 28, 2021 at 6:58 pm

      @jorge paez

      What danger to your unvaccinated children?

      “Among states reporting, children were 0.00%-0.26% of all COVID-19 deaths, and 7 states reported zero child deaths

      ​In states reporting, 0.00%-0.03% of all child COVID-19 cases resulted in death”

      Also your “right” to what? Not be infected by an airborne disease? Then shouldn’t every person with a communicable disease not go to school or work, but stay at home?

      I say this as a fully vaccinated adult who strongly supports getting Covid and other vaccines.

      https://www.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/

    • cargocult Reply
      October 29, 2021 at 12:12 pm

      About three times as many children die of drowning annually than from COVID-19. Only a depraved maniac would allow children to swim.

      No one must be allowed to die. We can all live forever if we follow the science and listen to the good Dr. Fauci.

      • UA-NYC Reply
        October 30, 2021 at 8:04 am

        Your stupid strawman “arguments” are an insult to straw men everywhere…anti-vaxxer

        • cargocult Reply
          October 30, 2021 at 5:13 pm

          I have data. UA-CCP has insults. Follow the science, comrade!

  10. Santastico Reply
    October 28, 2021 at 3:57 pm

    Covid will never go away. We either learn how to live with it or just get Armagedom to start planet Earth from scratch again. Getting tired of this BS.

    • Stuart Reply
      October 28, 2021 at 4:13 pm

      Learning to live with it, I agree. Which would be much easier if everyone who could get vaccinated would.

      • Santastico Reply
        October 28, 2021 at 5:46 pm

        @Stuart: My response here is not directed to you but to the overall situation.
        Who really cares if people don’t get the vaccine? It is their problem not mine. Why do people take vaccines? So THEY get protected against a virus or bacteria that causes a disease. I did my part so stop stopping the world because a few do not want to protect THEMSELVES. Seriously, it is their choice to gamble with their lives so the Government should stop getting in the middle of it. They provided vaccines so let’s move on with our lives. Oh, you got a vaccine but out of precaution want to drive alone in your car wearing a mask? Good for you!!! Want to wear it on a plane? Be my guest. Stop making me wear a mask on planes. The unvaccinated people should be the ones concerned and not me. I see people jogging on parks ALONE wearing masks. People are nuts!! People should be well aware of the consequences of this virus. More and more variations will keep coming. That is how viruses work. Every year you need a new flu shot. Covid will be the same. Everyone should have a basement at home so the ones that want to hide there forever should be happy.

        • Derek Reply
          October 28, 2021 at 5:59 pm

          100% correct, Santastico!

          I got JNJ #2 today because the data shows that it provides outstanding and durable protection. Why should I have to wear a mask because idiots refuse to get vaccinated?

          Masks are becoming the MAGA hats of the left it seems

        • Matthew Klint Reply
          October 28, 2021 at 6:20 pm

          @Santastico: I’m sympathetic to your argument, but I think the counter-argument is that young people and certain immuno-compromised people cannot be vaccinated, therefore the unvaccinated put them at an unnecessarily heightened risk.

          • Ben
            October 28, 2021 at 7:06 pm

            @Matt

            Regarding risks to children please read my post a little above. There is almost no risk of death to children from Covid.

            For those who are allergic or cannot take the vaccine, they are indeed at higher risk. But the same is true for them getting the flu. Someone who is immuno-compromised and can’t get a Covid vaccine probably can’t get a flu vaccine either. Both could be deadly.

            I agree with your premise above. But I’ve yet to see a compelling argument as to why governments and businesses need to restrict personal and bodily freedom to mandate Covid vaccines, but not flu vaccines or vaccines for other airborne viruses.

          • Matthew Klint
            October 28, 2021 at 7:10 pm

            Will review.

          • Santastico
            October 28, 2021 at 8:16 pm

            Don’t disagree about young people or immuno-compromised people but unfortunately they are the ones that have to wear masks and get protected. No different than any other diseases out there. My son is at a school that has 3 separate buildings and 3 separate cafeterias for elementary, middle and high school. Kids never mix or even see each other among the different schools. The school announced that the vaccination rate among students and faculty that can get the vaccine is 98%. And they still make every high schooler to wear a mask. Why????? Kids wear Etsy cloth masks with logos on it. For what??? Do you know what my son told me the other day? There are new kids in my class that I never seen their faces. We are creating a generation of zombies and the consequences will come after this Demented in Chief is no longer here.

          • Dunning Kruger
            October 28, 2021 at 10:00 pm

            Why are people so gung-ho about letting their young kids potentially catch covid because they probably won’t die, when long covid has been shown to have other horrific after effects, including lung damage, brain injury, and cardiac issues, among many others. I’m sure their kids will thank them later in life for not letting Biden infringe on their freedoms.

          • cargocult
            October 29, 2021 at 12:18 pm

            @Dunning Kruger

            I see you are one to cry about “long COVID.” What do you have to say about the fact that two-thirds of the folx surveyed for long COVID in the widely read Atlantic article on it tested negative for antibodies?

            https://www.statnews.com/2021/03/22/we-need-to-start-thinking-more-critically-speaking-cautiously-long-covid/
            https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/17/long-covid-in-children-and-adolescents-is-less-common-than-previously-feared
            https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-dubious-origins-of-long-covid-11616452583

          • Dunning Kruger
            October 29, 2021 at 4:15 pm

            @cargocult

            Thanks for the opinion articles.
            Now here are some real studies involving people with confirmed infections, not people that think they had it:
            https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2785388

            Here’s one the compares children and adults that had covid vs. children and adults pre-covid.
            https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.21.21265133v1.full-text
            Children have lower incidences than adults, but still significantly higher than pre-covid. But you are free to let your kids become a data point.

            Or you could be like my anti mask/anti vaxx coworker that caught it a year ago after months of denying its existence, and quietly confessed that he is still having brain fog (aka brain damage).

          • Dunning Kruger
            October 29, 2021 at 4:48 pm

            I will certainly concede that when my 1 year old can get a vaccine I will be ready to ditch the masks on planes as well. I don’t worry much for myself as I have gotten 3 doses of Pfizer and have made it through trips to Miami (in late July, which by the way people in the non tourist areas I went to were wearing masks to a surprising degree), St Louis, Houston, LA several times during their recent spike, among other less risky locations without so much as a sniffle because I can protect myself.

            However, I would like to take my child with me to LA in January when I have to go for a week but because I can’t trust people to do the right thing, she is too young to wear a mask, and her being vaccinated by then is in serious doubt, I’ll probably have to leave her home.

          • cargocult
            October 29, 2021 at 5:26 pm

            The Guardian (a publication whose politics I very much oppose) article cited a peer reviewed (whatever that is worth) study. The symptoms of long COVID are very vague and could be attributed to any number of conditions. You didn’t say anything about the fact that the majority of long-COVID complainers in that survey tested negative for antibodies, i.e. they ostensibly never had COVID-19. I hope you’re already aware of the toll the pandemic has taken on mental health. Should I send you links about the correlation between mental illness and progressive politics?

            Is your handle meant to be ironic? My impression is that you overestimate your ability to “science” when you “follow the science.” How can someone so timorous be so eager to inject his child with a vaccine that has zero long term safety studies? If you are afraid to take your infant traveling because of COVID-19, you need to seek psychiatric help. Do I need to remind you that far more children die from drowning than from the COVID bogeyman? Do you take your child along while driving? What recklessness!

          • cargocult
            October 29, 2021 at 5:34 pm

            Oh, and I am unvaccinated and uninfected. I travelled through Singapore right after its initial publicized outbreak, I was in Italy right before its national lockdown, passed through Madrid during its hotspot days in the summer of 2020, and spent extensive time in London and the New York area throughout the pandemic. I have flown mostly long-haul international flights and was exposed to the UK variant on at BA flight. Not sick, not scared. I have infected zero people with SARS-CoV-2 since I have never been infected myself. U mad, bro? Be mad at the public health establishment for forcing an own goal on the world. Since you are reading this blog, I assume you are not an “essential worker.” It’s the poors who really got screwed over in this pandemic. Instead of shielding the most vulnerable, the authorities made sure the well off could get their Amazon and DoorDash deliveries while Black and Brown folx toiled away and died under white supremacy.

          • Dunning Kruger
            October 29, 2021 at 7:08 pm

            @cargocult
            Dude, I’m giving you the actual studies where the people with the long covid have confirmed infections or tested positive for antibodies. Whether your articles cite studies or not, they are still opinions. My handle is directed at the willfully obtuse that can’t grasp that reality has changed for a while. I think I science just fine, I read studies and form my own opinions based on unbiased conclusions. As far as more kids dieing of drowning, well it helps keep the death numbers down when kids were largely shielded for the first year of the pandemic, but I also wouldn’t let my child around a pool or bathtub unattended either, does that also qualify me for psychiatric help? Anyways the vaccines are safe, they will be safe for kids, much safer than getting covid. I can’t compete with all the time you seem to have to flood this comment section, so goodnight and stay healthy.

          • cargocult
            October 29, 2021 at 7:41 pm

            The Guardian piece is an article, not an opinion. Of course, much of what is presented as impartial reportage in the media is actually very biased opinion. Do you believe everything that the New York Times, Washington Post or MSNBC presents as fact?

            If you believe that long COVID is real, why not believe that vaccine side effects are real? Did you cry about long influenza? How can you say you know that the vaccines are safe if they have only been under emergency use authorization for less than a year? Why are children in need of shielding if they are less likely to die of COVID-19 than of drowning? Why do you expose your child to the danger of the road, you monster? Is avoiding “brain fog” worth mandating lockdowns and the concomitant economic and mental health damage, never mind universal vaccination with a novel vaccine? Are you willing to bet the safety of all humanity on a novel vaccine that will mean billions upon billions in profits for Big Pharma? Of course you wouldn’t see the irony in your handle. Smug much? Fat, innumerate and fearful is no way to go through life, son.

    • Doug Reply
      October 28, 2021 at 4:18 pm

      Agreed. With vaccination rates where they are, even significant spikes do not produce any more hospitalizations or death than a normal flu season, yet the response is radically different. It is truly insane to watch governments turning to the same exact draconian measures that haven’t stopped any of the last three waves. “Science.”

  11. DaninMCI Reply
    October 28, 2021 at 4:09 pm

    Covid is not going to go away long term. Sure our immunity will increase but we will have seasonal waves of this forever. It’s a flu-like virus. So long term we are going to have to figure out if we lock down or close borders over and over or go on with life as best we can. We don’t need judgement or fake science from those wearing masks outdoors or in their cars by themselves or those that claim vaccines will kill us.

    • Matthew Klint Reply
      October 28, 2021 at 4:11 pm

      Yes, the cloth masks that cannot even fully protect against droplets continue to leave me scratching my head.

      • Dave Edwards Reply
        October 28, 2021 at 4:42 pm

        100%. It’s nothing more than for show. Even the staunchest Covid fearmongers have to know the masks 90% of people wear are next to worthless.

        It’s this kind of nonsense that makes the people who refuse to get the vaccine think they are right. The continued pushing of masks for little or no benefit hurts the common sense push to get more people vaccinated.

        By the way, which state has the lowest Covid cases per capita the past 2 weeks. Hint… it’s the state where people look at anyone with a mask strangely.

        • MaKr Reply
          October 28, 2021 at 10:03 pm

          You mean which state has openly been cooking its numbers? Seriously, if you are citing Florida’s current numbers without putting them in context of how bad they were two months ago, you’re operating in bad faith

      • Santastico Reply
        October 28, 2021 at 5:51 pm

        That is all part of a theater. Have you seen any doctor wearing a cloth mask from Etsy with their favorite football team logo on it while performing a surgery? Why? Because it doesn’t work. So why is it ok for people to wear them on planes? It is a huge theater so they can control people. Just look at Covid cases in FL, TX and other states that banned masks. They are all way down. Nothing different than states with mask mandates.

        • Dunning Kruger Reply
          October 28, 2021 at 9:50 pm

          JFC, what you are pointing out is that people should be required to wear better masks, but I’m sure when you need surgery you’ll be sure to tell the surgeon he doesn’t need to perform the theatrics of wearing a mask.

          Also those states are down in cases NOW, after being ridiculously high for weeks. Cook County IL has a mask mandate and this wave maxed out at 1000 cases/10 deaths per day. Miami Dade maxed out this wave at 3000 cases/49 deaths per day with half the population. You want to argue about which is better?

          • Santastico
            October 28, 2021 at 11:43 pm

            I am saying masks on planes is a theater. Masks for vaccinated people is a theater. Didn’t get the vaccine? It is your choice. I got it, leave me alone. BTW, I live in a Democrat state. Nobody wears masks on stores, games, etc.. Rolling Stones was here last week. 55,000 people inside a indoor stadium and no masks. Covid cases keep declining and now they will invent a new variant. There will always be a new variant. Grandpa Joe is shooting himself on his foot. People are done with this BS.

          • cargocult
            October 29, 2021 at 11:39 am

            People who aren’t explicitly scrubbed in for surgery don’t have to wear masks in Sweden.

            https://pubs.asahq.org/anesthesiology/article/113/6/1447/9572/Is-Routine-Use-of-a-Face-Mask-Necessary-in-the
            https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7539019/

            “There is insufficient evidence to show that non-scrubbed staff must wear masks during surgery.”

            Mask mandates that don’t require properly fitted (K)N-95 masks are pure theater. Government must be seen to do something, no matter how useless or even detrimental. Commercial aircraft have air filtration systems on par with, if not exceeding, the capabilities of those in surgical theaters. U scared, bro?

  12. Jason Reply
    October 28, 2021 at 4:09 pm

    Could you please try to proofread before you make your posts? Several grammar mistakes and other issues make this painful to read. What’s the rush? “Boat” instead of “boast”, other issues. You appear to be a smart person, or at least you think you are. Take just a little bit of time before you post and confirm that.

    • Matthew Klint Reply
      October 28, 2021 at 4:11 pm

      Jason, you’re welcome to be my volunteer editor – email me if you want to proofread articles before they published and I’m happy to give you first crack at them.

      • Lukas Reply
        October 28, 2021 at 10:39 pm

        I’d love to apply for this position, if you are serious.

        • Matthew Klint Reply
          October 28, 2021 at 10:39 pm

          It is unpaid 🙁

      • Jason Reply
        October 29, 2021 at 7:54 am

        I actually would. Even though I dont always agree with your perspective I do enjoy reading it. And I do believe it wouldnt take that much to make it even better. LMK how to get in touch.

  13. PM Reply
    October 28, 2021 at 4:51 pm

    In addition to COVID, the flu circulating around Europe this year is reputed to be particularly nasty. Earlier today, I had my first flu jab ever- these are also less than 100% effective.

  14. Ryan Reply
    October 28, 2021 at 5:08 pm

    Damn. The stars finally align for me to get some down time for travel the week after next (Switzerland and Italy with a quick stop in South Africa to take advantage of a really good F fare on Swiss) and now this is happening. I just can’t F’ing win.

    • Jason Reply
      October 29, 2021 at 7:52 am

      Go and have a great time!

      • Ryan Reply
        October 29, 2021 at 9:30 am

        So long as there are no lockdowns or restrictions for restaurants, etc., I very much intend to do so!

        Fully vaxxed and had COVID (minor case, thankfully) late last month. I’m about as immune right now as one can be.

  15. Matthew Klint Reply
    October 28, 2021 at 7:09 pm

    @All: Good discussion. That’s why I love this blog. Thanks to each of you for your contributions.

  16. Joe Biden Reply
    October 28, 2021 at 11:12 pm

    You’re welcome. I know everyone enjoys a good Angelo Negri story.

  17. Tom Reply
    October 29, 2021 at 9:55 am

    The point is simple: this is not over. — but it is. No one cares about Covid anymore. The news cycle and governments need to create a new boogie man. The people have grown tired of Covid. Give us something new to fear already geez.

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