The Washington Post introduced me to a new term this morning called “revenge travel.” I think it applies to me…
Are You Ready For Revenge Travel?
Like many of you, I had all sorts of trips planned this year. I was going to Algeria, Bhutan, Greenland, Libya, Mongolia, Nepal, Syria, and Tunisia. The year got off to a great start, with many trips in January, February, and early March. Then the pandemic hit and I have not stepped foot outside the country in five months. Domestically, I stayed home for a few months before an opportunity arose for a private jet trip in June. Last week, I took my first trip on United and was only gone about 24 hours…I did not even stay in a hotel, sleeping on a redeye flight instead to minimize time away from home.
“Revenge travel” is a term used to capture the pent-up demand over travel. Some analysts are predicting that leisure travel will come roaring back very quickly once people are comfortable flying again (through the availability of widespread testing or a vaccine).
The term is borrowed from China, where the concept of “revenge spending” emerged in the 1980s in response to years of repressed demand that had been caused by the Cultural Revolution. But retailers in China are reporting a similar phenomenon today as stores re-open after months of shutdown.
A McKinsey analyst told The Post that both leisure and business domestic air travel in China has bounced back to 60-70% of pre-crisis levels. An accompanying report states:
“This is significantly driven by people being comfortable with traveling and the perception that there may be a low risk of infection when flying.”
Meanwhile, recent polling in the USA demonstrates Americans are more anxious to travel than ever before. While they may not be booking right now, they are planning. This is intensified by the fact that travel has taken on a new meaning, as people are anxious not to escape the monotony of office life, but to escape what many feel is the prison of their homes.
CONCLUSION
I picture “revenge travel” like a dam that overflows. Travel will return and do so with great force. It will probably do so suddenly, hopefully when the pandemic situation improves but eventually regardless of whether it improves (at least for lower-risk groups). I will engage in revenge travel, as I have a lot of ground to make up for the last several months.
Will you engage in “revenge travel” at your first opportunity?
@ Matthew — The phrase “revenge travel” reminds me of “hate liking” your friends pictures that Captain Obvious mentions. I know the type well…
LOL.
Love the post Matthew- agree with your stance on the likely rapidity of recovery in tourism, and I made a number of speculative bookings based on this through 2021 to try and capture the low prices now for travel, int he future (nothing better than booking at $2000/night room for $400 now). Just wait for the mob though….
Thanks for the blog!
Not exactly on topic, but I’ll go there. With all due respect, and being aware of your goal of visiting every country, why Syria and Libya? I suppose there will never be a “good time” to tick those off the list, but I’m interested in your calculations why this year, pre-pandemic, fit the bill
I wanted to briefly cross into Libya while in Tunisia and Algeria simply due to geographic proximity. Sadly, going to Benghazi or Tripoli is not safe at this time and may not be for years. Thus, this would be a day trip across the border and back. In time, I hope to visit Tripoli.
As for Syria, I have friends of friends in Damascus who have invited me to visit and the country, its leadership, and ongoing civil war fascinate me. I would hope to visit in a responsible way and there are a few journalistic topics I would hope to cover while there (i.e. not just sightseeing).
Matthew, don’t do it. You may think “it’s safe, I’m only 200 yards across the border”. They will kidnap you for ransom maybe as soon as you cross and it’s possible that your head will be shown on youtube separated from your body. Don’t do it! If for no other reason because we need Live and Let’s Fly and your pal that does it on Sundays cannot replace you.
I wouldn’t go anywhere near Libya for the foreseeable future. Although I’ve been to Tripoli ( and Benghazi) several times, and enjoyed it very much, those trips were in Gaddafi times. Even then they were a bit fraught.
I look forward to the time when so a trip can be enjoyed without concern. The Roman remains of Leptis Magna alone are well-worth the effort of going.
Syria. I’m glad to have been but cannot imagine another chance for years if not decades.
As you ‘revenge’ travel: no, it’s not going to be a V. I expect some modest rebound in one stop vacations, probably resorts or single cities. I believe people will be apprehensive for a long, long time.
I don’t see demand spiking back suddenly. People are going to vary greatly in terms of how long before they feel comfortable flying. Everyone won’t suddenly feel comfortable at once. If that comfort level is based on availability of a vaccine, well those vaccines won’t be airdropped worldwide on a single day, it will take time to manufacture and distribute. Also, airlines won’t suddenly ramp service levels back up. Business travel will lag behind leisure because of the liability issues and the need to preserve cash. This will be a slow ramp up. Sure there will be those like you who will jump on a plane the first chance they get, but I think that will be a small step function, and then a long upward slope back to normalcy.
Of course if there’s a vaccine your anti vaccine Dear Leader will dissuade people from taking it.
Well, it’s definitely healthier than revenge porn.
One thing to consider is people’s ability to pay for travel, even after the economy reopens. Many folks are facing job losses or declining wages, and for those who have not paid their rent or mortgages for many months, the ability to pack up and go will be greatly diminished.
Yes, the flipside of all these people in jobs that are WFH, could do so say from Capetown from Nov-Mar – unless you had daily zoom meetings (that fell in the middle of the night). Could open up new avenues of international travel or immersion.
The downside is while that now you don’t have to live in Silicon valley and can remote work from much of the US – with perhaps a monthly or bi-monthly trip to HQ.
It also means that number of Jobs that really can be outsourced domestically or even Internationally -the paradigm has shifted 2-3 standard deviations -compaines have “operational leverage” to remain in business or lower overhead and increase profits.
As my father always used to point out, even in the worst of economic times, there are people that have or make money and, for them, there’s no better time to spend.
His running joke was about “assholes driving Lamborghinis in the 70s”.
Sounds like Klint is trying to convince himself that his blog may actually generate revenue again someday ……
The good news for you Joe (or bad news depending upon your outlook) is that I write this blog because I love to write this blog, not for the monetary benefits. Ad revenue has tanked during the pandemic and you still see me writing each day…
Buried in the GDP report today was the fact that while GDP fell by 9.2%, incomes ROSE 7.1% (in part due to government stimulus) and household savings rose by an unprecedented 24.1%. Undoubtedly when the time is right some of that savings will come out of the bank and into travel. As for me, I’m sitting on about 1.2 million points/miles and am ready to go when the travel restrictions relax…
I had not read those stats today. Fascinating.
Taxes will be rising next to pay for my neighbors’ stimulus checks that they don’t need. Infuriating
If that happens will travel become very expensive. So many aircraft and routes not in service. Hotels can easily re-open if the demand is there, but the planes taken out can’t quickly be replaced. If travel were to resume to 2019 levels in 2 years or so, how could the airlines possibly be able to scale up capacity that fast? Tickets will be very expensive based on supply and demand and points will probably be very difficult to use if not devalued to worthless levels as the focus will be on $. Demand will be high enough for paid fares and options will be limited to the point where ‘loyalty’ is going to be less important for an airline as fliers won’t have much of a choice.
You mentioned you hadnt left the county in 5 months. but you’ve flown across the country and to Arizona. How could you accomplish that without leaving LA County?
Obviously meant country you dip
Missing R, Jason.
Love how you spell check everyone but your Dear Leader. Now go have some covfefe @jason
I’m happy to travel once it becomes an unquarantined and more pleasant experience. But I know many people who are so scared they barely leave their house and say they won’t travel until there is a vaccine. So I think it is going to be a long time before everyone is flying again.
For me, it will be a combination of safety – for myself and others, service returning to something approaching normal pre-pandemic levels, and practicality. On the last, it’s kind of pointless to visit a place where museums are closed and restaurants and attractions are shuttered. There also needs to be reasonable saver award space, which may be tricky with comparatively short notice before traveling. I’m not a fan of the “revenge” term though, it sounds unnecessarily sinister.
Yes, as a dual citizen, I have an EU passport, and I’m hoping to travel to both Mexico and Europe this year. I am also extremely keen to travel to Japan again — the greatest country on Earth for travel! — as soon as possible, although I imagine that might require me first traveling to Europe, since I think it will be a *very* long time before U.S. passport holders can travel to Japan. I feel confident, safe, and comfortable traveling anywhere, but developing countries — especially in Asia and the Caribbean — all have very draconian border restrictions and health requirements, which are a burden. I feel like the Wuhan coronavirus has stolen months of my life from me — months of joy and happiness — and I’m ready to enjoy the world again after being stuck in an extremely unpleasant U.S. city.
I think the big question mark right now is whether this virus will be back with a vengeance this fall (especially in November/December when flu season normally starts.) If there’s no surge, then I can see Americans becoming more comfortable to fly again in 2021. However if there is a surge, then 2021 may look very similar to 2020.
I’ll wait. Revenge is inflicting hurt or harm in retribution for something. If I have to travel with that attitude, how can I enjoy it ? As well, the thought of mobs of people everywhere (angry or not) trying to squeeze in all they missed,…. no thanks. Just about every travel destination blogged and written about in recent years shows large crowds of people everywhere … Venice, Rome, Paris … climbing over each other to see the Mona Lisa?,… lines two hours long to go up the Eiffel Tower,…. the Coliseum ?…. Trevi Fountain ? the Anne Frank Houses?…. then there is the problem of noise, trash and over-priced amenities and everyone taking selfies – because there is no point in looking at something centuries old without planting yourself in front of it to take a photo.
My husband and I last went to Amsterdam in September 2014 and it was so crowded, we could not get into the Riksmuseum or the Anne Frank house. The lines were hours long, so we investigated small museums away from the center of things and did fine enjoying that – with no crowds. I don’t expect to be the only person traveling but I have reached the point of searching out anything off the beaten path – small towns in the countryside. And please, don’t write about “hidden gems”; keep them to yourself. If people want to find them, they can without anybody’s help.
I really wouldn’t keep broadcasting your visit to Chicago in open violation of their 14-day quarantine rules. Are you still a member of the bar or have you let that lapse? Geez.
With the vaccine hit the market the travelers can be more confident and can think more of traveling while being on the safer side from the pandemic. It took a bit long but finally, the maximum impact of revenge travel can be seen in upcoming weeks/months. Being a traveler I can finally think of travel and on top of that great deals are floating on flights, hotel bookings, and tour packages.
Cheers
Due to covid concerns my family has skipped day trips and vacation for not one but TWO summers in a row, (yes you heard that right, I did not go on vacation or day trips AT ALL in 2021).
I have seen (and heard) relatives and others travel over the summer and having a good time and I got jealous of their vacations and trips and I also suffered from an extreme case of travel envy because of it,
To make up for my past 2 boring covid summers I have planned MULTIPLE day trips (AT LEAST 10) and several vacations for when the pandemic ends and each day I am adding more and more destinations to my bucket list >:) >:) >:)