Hearkening back to my days studying the utilitarianism (promoting the greatest good for the greatest number) of Jeremy Bentham and John Stuart Mill, there is simply no way you can fault the Ryanair captain for his decision to divert to Minsk when confronted with fighter jets from the Belarusian Air Force.
Captain’s Impossible Choice In Ryanair Diversion To Belarus
Reader “Leo” left the following comment in my story yesterday on the Ryanair diversion to Minsk:
The pilot was a coward. He knew this was a political persecution and landed the plane anyway. He should be condemned.
When air traffic control from Belarus declared a bomb threat onboard, the flight crew was right to be suspicious. What? How? Why?
When it emerged that Belarus was targeting a political dissident onboard, the duplicity of the Belarusian action became even clearer. Dispatching MiG fighter jets to intimidate the jet and force it to divert to Minsk even though Vilnius was closer was an act of piracy; a government-sanctioned, government-run hijacking.
But what was the alternative? Ignore the warnings and fighter jets and risk being attacked? As low as the probability was that any of the Belarusian fighters would have opened fire, the captain was left with a decision: risk 120+ lives to (potentially) save one or simply not take that risk, making Roman Protasevich the sacrificial lamb.
As sobering as it is to think that Mr. Protasevich now faces an extended prison sentence and potentially the death penalty for having the audacity to question the regime, can you imagine if a trigger-happy top gun accidentally opened fire?
Lexington and Concord anyone? Or Sarajevo, circa June 28, 1914?
The pilot made the right call. He had a difficult choice between two bad outcomes and chose to minimize the risk rather than increase it by testing the Belarusian KGB and a dictator who has proven to roll over anyone who gets in his way.
I’ve heard a lot of hand-wringing over this story. After all, the United States would have done the same thing to Edward Snowden, right? By denying airspace to Evo Morales’ jet through to be carrying Snowden, did the Europeans (and Americans) not do the same thing?
I don’t think this is an issue of moral high ground. But I do question why many have chosen to examine this situation in a tit-for-tat way. For all the ways we can analogize or distinguish the Morales/Snowden incident, there is no defense for what happened on Sunday on FR4978.
CONCLUSION
It’s easy to try and assign blame to others, but the Ryanair captain was left with a very difficult choice. Not only do I not condemn his decision to divert to Minsk, but I applaud it…as tragic as the outcome was. Now it is up to European authorities to respond in a meaningful way.
image: Ryanair (not the actual captain of FR4978)
“Now it is up to European authorities to respond in a meaningful way.”
Apparently, the EU, UK, and Ukraine might be banning all flights to and from Belarus from flying over their airspace and/or revoking Belavia’s operating license in their own countries. Which would cut out a large chunk of the flights to and from Minsk Airport. And the EU is also calling on all EU airlines to avoid flying over Minsk. This is in addition to other new sanctions being enacted as well.
Guess we will see how far things go with regards to all of that…
I’m not even sure that is wise, as it hurts the people (like US Cuban policy), but it is indeed something.
The Minsk Marriott has announced they are not extending free breakfast to elites in solidarity with potential EU sanctions.
At least we won’t have to see the appalling Giuliani sleazing his way around as special envoy ( even less successful that the laughable pronouncement of peace in the ME by the cretinous Kushner). These tinpot dictators need to be dealt with, or they’ll keep coming on stronger and nastier.
Whoa whoa! To imply that the United States did the same thing is absolutely wrong. We did not scramble US fighters and escort a plane out of the sky into another country. Not even close Matt. Completely agree with you however that the pilot did the right thing. He absolutely had no other choice
For those who would criticize the Captain there is much we don’t know here.
Did the Captain have any idea that this diversion would place a customer in grave danger?
What instructions if any was he given by the company and what was he told about this bomb and when?
What instructions was he given by ATC and when in the flight were those instructions given? Did they threaten to shoot him down if he didn’t comply?
Those are but a few questions that arise in evaluating this incident and how you answer those questions has the ability to alter greatly our view on this incident.
As one of the people that kicked the hornet’s nest so to speak, I want to apologize to you Matthew for any toxic debate and vitriolic comments that were generated. That certainly was not my intention but I still should have expected it given that it’s the Internet and today’s climate. I was upset certainly with Kyle’s framing of the story, but I should have expressed those thoughts and feelings in a more constructive manner.
I 100% agree with you here–we can and should condemn this action regardless of any similar or distinguishing features; it was a criminal act and done to suppress dissent (for the record, Ukraine threatened Belavia with fighter jets in 2016, and some report US threatening fighter jets against Morales as well–both times the pilots complied before the jets were scrambled).
My main point–which seems to have been lost in the noise–is that we, the Western public, should resist efforts by the media to propagandize these incidents and frame them in a binary “good vs. evil” narrative where only Bad Countries led by our geopolitical opponents carry out such acts. The double standard doesn’t really bother me as much as the fear that this is how the public is conditioned for more forceful action. We saw this is Iraq most vividly but hardly the only example.
Regarding the response, I’m not sure. I like how it’s targeted and linked to the original action, however, the cost will almost certainly be entirely borne by the common people rather than the ruling regime. I truly feel most bad for the people of Belarus who are caught in between this East-West geopolitical rivalry.
Ryanair flight 4978: A strange, erotic journey from Athens to Minsk
@Jonathon
These lying, thieving, murdering scumbags would love your view of it: diplomatic niceties, the courtesy of titles ( even stolen ones), nuanced responses, balanced positions, etc, etc. And they’ll simply go on as before: poisoning passengers, hijacking foreign airlines, sending hit men overseas to kill dissenters, crushing opposition, looting the public purse…laughing all the while and ‘deny, deny, deny’
Nothing will happen. I mean, keeping more people in Belarus and forcing more gas/oil to be used on flights by avoiding Belarus airspace, which comes from Russia. Belarus and Russia are laughing at how clueless and pathetic this response is from Europe.
The simple fact is that dictators get away with what they can, such as kidnapping journalists. We are lucky here in the US that we are dealing with one who is so old, confused, and inept that he doesn’t pose much harm. We may not be so lucky next time.
There are still conflicting reports. Some reports of Belarusian forces on the plane, two to four of them. Other reports of a bomb was set to go off if the plane flew near Vilnius. James Bond’s bosses know more than we do, in all likelihood. Some Americans were aboard according to the US Government.
@121Pilot – “Did the Captain have any idea that this diversion would place a customer in grave danger?”
I don’t think it matters if he knew that or not. It’s obvious that NOT complying would’ve placed a lot more than 1 passenger in danger.
The thing which puzzles me is the closest airport was Vilnius. As a former military pilot and retired airline Captain, it was always drilled into my thought process to go to the nearest suitable airport. Looking at FR24, it seems to me they could have stalled the process to get into Lithuanian airspace, thus defusing the entire situation.
I think there will come a time when aircraft need to be treated the same as a host country is required to treat an embassy or consulate…as foreign territory. The rules of the road by taking this approach are pretty well settled and will give clear guidance as to what a transgression looks like. I’m reminded of that old cold war era film, White Nights, where in a mechanical issue forced an aircraft down in the Soviet Union and a dissident was removed from the aircraft. Taking control of an aircraft for political reasons is one of the very definitions of a hijacking. No ambiguity here. These airspaces are tight and with all the tensions around, and the short flying times of supersonic military aircraft/ missiles, the pilot could have found himself in a hell of a shoot match between NATO aircraft and Belarusian aircraft. Nano seconds of miscalculations can result in escalating tragedies…. Pilot had no other options. He’s not Maverick and nobody on that aircraft signed up to be Goose…
And the flight crew was, of course, informed before departure from ATHENS that they had onboard a dissident Belarus national who founded a TV channel critical of the regime? Gimme a break!
Matthew – you might have studied something called “The Trolley Problem” while studying utilitarianism, in, I’m assuming, Moral Philosophy. Do you agree that the pilot’s dilemma on FR4978 was practically a scaled up version of the variant of The Trolley Problem that has the dilemma lie with the driver? The Pilot was not only okay doing what he did, he was RIGHT to do so, as you say.
Putting aside this specific incident, the problem with utilitarian thinking is defining good. The other problem is viewing all equally. Outside of being told by an all knowing force (god) what good and bad is (he did. It’s the Bible), what constitutes good and bad will be a matter of opinion. Slavery can be considered good and be the most utilitarian thing because the majority is beneficially served by it. We have slavery today with democracy where the minority is enslaved under a system it doesn’t support and doesn’t consent to by threats of violence by government. The majority benefits from it. That’s the problem when economists say there is no politics/morality in economics. Of course there is. If you are ok with government using threats of violence to get money from people (taxation), you are going to view a policy very different as someone who supports freedom and no slavery and who will not even conceive the possibility of government coercion as a means of public funding.
Viewing all as equals is illogical. Clearly some individuals are better than others based on quantifiable metrics. Clearly some groups (races) are better than other groups based on quantifiable metrics.
Yes, the Captain absolutely made the correct decision. As a major airline Captain, myself, the safety of our passengers, crew, and the aircraft, itself, is paramount. If it comes down to a contest between a fully armed MiG 29 and my Airbus, I will lose, every time. We are taught that if intercepted, we comply. Period. We simply cannot risk getting shot down, nor can we get involved in the internal politics of another country. We cannot jeopardize the lives of 150 passengers for the sake of one.
How far exactly was he from the border? How long would it have taken to get there? A bit of “I don’t understand, please repeat”, “I can’t understand what you are saying, you are breaking up”, etc. may have given him the time to get out of Belarus airspace.
“My main point–which seems to have been lost in the noise–is that we, the Western public, should resist efforts by the media to propagandize these incidents and frame them in a binary “good vs. evil” narrative where only Bad Countries led by our geopolitical opponents carry out such acts.”
None of that excuses or justifies what the government of Belarus did.
“forcing more gas/oil to be used on flights by avoiding Belarus airspace”
If they can survive by avoiding flying over Syria, they probably can by doing the same with Belarus as well.
Release the cockpit voice recording! What did the pilots know and when did they know it?
I just saw an interview with the IATA director (or some such title). He was surprised that the EU moved so quickly to take some action on the issue.