United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby returned to CBS’s Face the Nation yesterday to discuss the latest travel trends. While most of his answers were familiar talking points, we did gain some additional insight on travel to Asia and how long masks will be required onboard.
Scott Kirby Returns To Face The Nation
Travel Demand Won’t Fully Recover Until 2023
Kirby joined host John Dickerson from his home in Beaver Creek, Colorado. First, he distinguished between the return of leisure travel and return of business travel.
“We see a huge desire for people to get back out, reunite with friends and family and connect with the world, and that leisure demand is more than one hundred percent recovered. Lots of pent up demand demonstrates the human desire to reconnect. Business demand is still off 60%. And, of course, a lot of international borders are still closed and long haul market. So we’re not back to 100%, but we’re certainly headed in the right direction.”
This was clear enough prior, though Kirby next provided a recovery timeline that is a bit more conservative than language he has used in the past:
“We don’t think it really recovers in full until 2023. Europe, we expect to be as soon as the borders are open. That will come back largely in full. Probably next summer will be the biggest year in history for Europe. And Asia is probably another 18 to 24 months away. It’s going to take a little longer to get Asia.”
Kirby Hints Masks Will No Longer Be Required After Federal Mask Mandate Lifted
Later in the interview, Dickerson asked about masks, specifically when they would “come off in the planes.” Kirby seemed to hint United would lift it own mask requirements as soon as the federal mask mandate expires:
“Yeah, well, one of the great things about flying on an airplane is it’s literally if you’re going to be indoors with other people, it’s the safest place to be, particularly because the air filtration on the airplane. My guess is that the current government order expires on September 13th And fingers crossed, my guess is it will expire on September 13th, but we’ll wait and see for sure.”
A follow-up would have been helpful here just to get United on the record, but this certainly sounds as if United will not stop requiring masks onboard in tandem with federal rules.
Kirby Says To Expect More Delays…Due To Climate Change
After Dickerson asks Kirby about climate change’s impact on air travel, Kirby focuses on increased hurricanes and thunderstorms:
“I mean, hurricane last week, the first hurricane and the earliest I can ever remember hurricanes, the number of thunderstorm thunderstorm activity. As there’s more heat in the atmosphere, more thunderstorms is making it harder and harder. So what we have to do as an aviation industry at United Airlines is get better at dealing with bad weather because we are going to have more weather extremes.”
Dickerson wonders how an airline can get better at “bad weather.” Kirby explains:
“Yeah, it’s really- it is. It’s much more difficult. We are working on technology to do things like keep the ramp open. That’s one of the biggest things that shuts down airports. If there’s a lightning strike within 5 miles of the airport, it’s closed for 30 minutes and trying to figure out ways that we can keep the ramp open as an example to fly when there is weather in the vicinity, but it’s not as bad.”
CONCLUSION
Kirby was on once again on Face the Nation, noting travel to Asia may be two years away, United’s onboard mask requirement will likely expire when the federal government’s mandate expires, and climate change will cause more delays.
He also offered input on a number of additional topics not discussed above, which you can view below.
Huh, I always believed that Allegiant would be the first US carrier to remove the mask mandate due to the markets that they fly
in but maybe that won’t be the case
If his comments regarding Asia travel are correct, and I believe they are, this could prove catastrophic for the airline industry there and in the Middle East. I mean, how much longer can they survive with help from the Govt? How much longer will their respective Govt even provide help? At least the U.S. carriers (and European airlines to an extent) have been able to “on the fly” move aircraft and flights to leisure destinations close by. Asian and Middle Eastern carriers though are getting gutted, with only China having a significant enough domestic market to keep things going. This winter could prove seismic in those areas with carriers consolidating or permanently downsizing, with many others being forced into bankruptcy.
I know I’ve said this before, but it bears repeating – business travel will not resume in any meaningful way until the mask mandate ends. The same was true for office workers. Within 10 days of the CDC guidance in May (and the subsequent dropping of state mask mandates for vaccinated people), a plethora of large employers across the country announced their return-to-office plans. Right now, the mask mandate on planes is holding back activities related to business travel (conferences, trade shows, showcases, etc.) for two key reasons: 1) a significant number of people hate wearing them, and 2) the optics are bad…masks give the appearance of danger and businesses are inherently risk-adverse when it comes to anything that appears unsafe or dangerous. While #2 is easy to understand for most people, it’s #1 that I feel is actually having a greater impact on business travel at the moment.
An example – I work for a major international corporation with an annual travel budget in the millions of dollars. Our team (approx 60 people and distributed across the US) had planned to hold our first in-person meeting this month in NYC. Several of our upper-level managers based in the western US complained about having to fly for 4+ hours with a mask, and as a result the meeting was rescheduled for the last week of September. I know of literally dozens of similar examples across my industry alone, and this has to be known by the airline execs. And before someone chimes in about how wearing a mask is no big deal and that they don’t mind, I’ll reiterate that it’s the MANDATE that is the issue here. I haven’t heard of anyone trying to take masks away for those that want to wear them; the problem is forcing people to wear them that don’t want to. Until that changes, there will be no significant return to business travel beyond the current “critical only” travel that you see today.
Great insights. Thanks for sharing Steve.
Lets be honest here — no airline forces you to wear a mask for 4+ hours. You probably only need to wear a mask when the fasten seat belt sign is on and during boarding/exit. For all other times, just nurse a glass of water. Perhaps your company can hire Matt to give a talk on how to survive a long flight with a mask as he has flown transatlantic from LA (and transcontinental) multiple times in the last 18 months.
Those people who want to complain about masks are going to complain regardless.
Thank you for sharing your feelings.
Complaining about wearing a mask for four hours on a flight to the point that a meeting has to be rescheduled? I think mask mandates are pointless, but I wouldn’t want to employ anyone who made such a complaint.
Kirby gets that masks are holding back biz travel – UNITED rising again leading the pack