Last weekend I reported about Southwest and the rumors swirling regarding their Hawaii operations. Based on information I gained from a casual conversation on a beach in Kona with a Southwest senior employee, it was clear that Denver would be in the mix. But Southwest hasn’t said so in their announcement, in fact they haven’t said much of anything.
If you are considering booking travel or signing up for a new credit card please click here. Both support LiveAndLetsFly.com.
If you haven’t followed us on Facebook or Instagram, add us today.
An Open Secret
I mentioned in my previous post that Southwest sponsored a Hawaii tourism event and held a prominent role… but did not make an announcement for flights as speculated. Gary Kelly has long stated that Hawaii was in the plans and it wasn’t a matter of “if” but rather “when” Southwest would start to fly to the islands.
My Prediction
I had mentioned in my Unsubstantiated Gossip post that I speculated they would fly to Kona from Denver but Honolulu was also mentioned as an option. Why? Because the market aligns with Southwest’s customer base due to the affordability of hotel cost when compared with the rest of the islands. They have nearly validated such an assumption.
That’s not to say that Southwest customers are all value customers. In my previous post I outlined how Southwest is no longer a value brand and in fact is at least as expensive as competitors or more expensive 65% of the time. Their point-to-point model and willingness to load mid-tier and smaller markets with plenty of destinations is key to growing their business marketshare and domestic-based consultants have responded.
That being said, Honolulu is easily the most recognizable Hawaiian destination (Maui is close behind). Plenty of hotels are available in the lower to mid-tier market in Honolulu whereas other islands do not necessarily serve those markets.
Considerations
For some travelers this only makes the Companion Pass and Southwest credit card offers more attractive. One important consideration, however, is their fleet is not ideal for overnight travel and redeye flights. Due to the time change and distance however, it’s nearly a forgone conclusion that westbound flights happen during the day and many return flights to the mainland come back overnight just as US-Europe flights do.
While I will pay a little extra to board early and snag an exit row seat on a flight of that distance and flight time, I am not sure I am signing up for a redeye on a Southwest flight. How many others will follow? Will they finally sell exit rows and bulkhead seats (as they now have the ability to do in their system)?
Can Southwest get the Hawaii revenue premium without Economy Plus and first class options? Allegiant flies to the islands but also sell those seats in advance. It remains to be seen if we see a change in Southwest’s sales model or what the customer response for a truly all-economy product will be.
So What Did Southwest Announce?
Southwest released a video on Facebook that they will be flying to Hawaii. No big secret there, though for the average flyer, this was probably news. What did they reveal?
- Southwest will begin selling tickets for Hawaii in 2018 subject to government approval.
- The announcement was made on Waikiki beach with Diamond Head in the background suggesting that Honolulu will be at least one of their destinations.
- They announced Southwest is currently certifying operations for ETOPS flying (extended range twin-engine operational performance standards) meaning that they will be flying a significant distance over open water with 737s.
That’s about as much of a non-announcement as you can make. But nonetheless it does confirm that they will be going to Hawaii, and likely Honolulu will be one of their destinations if not a key. Diamond Head and Waikiki beach are also some of the most recognizable landmarks associated with Hawaii generally.
What markets do you think they will serve? Would you fly Southwest without being able to reserve a better space seat on a long-haul redeye?
I don’t care about the lack of extra legroom seats or F class so much. I’ve survived coach to Hawai’i before. What IS a deal killer for me on a flight of that length is the lack of power. None of my electronics have the juice to survive a flight all the way from Texas to Hawai’i, even if there is a short stopover for charging in DEN or California. That’s something they need to address, lest they end up with a bunch of unhappy customers when their iPads crap out halfway to Honolulu.
Your point is well taken and will be problematic, but you gotta have at least a couple Anker chargers with you at all times. Doesn’t work for laptop but keeps me juiced for iPad and phone through all flights.
Power, meals, over the water WiFi (which is their inflight entertainment) – it seems like Southwest just isn’t prepared. Then again, maybe flyers will line up for them because they offer free bags and award seats you can actually book. I don’t know.
“award seats you can actually book” is rather meaningless because they’re simply straight up cash rebates in the WN world. When inventory is low and they’re only selling those Anytime fares, the number of points they ask for is easily higher than UA’s standard award or AA’s AAnytime award prices.
Anytime fares on American to Hawaii would be 80,000 miles in coach round trip. If you value Southwest points equal to American (which it seems that you may value them at least equal if not more valuable than Southwest) the cash value is 1.4¢/point or a cash equivalent of $1,120. I don’t think southwest will get that high. I do believe we’ll see non-west coast cities for around $600 round trip or about 43,000 Rapid Rewards points. That’s cheaper than American’s peak season awards and just slightly more than their off peak awards but both of those are milesage saver which are very rarely available. Thus, you can’t really redeem at a comparable value to Southwest.
I don’t think that you’re thinking about this issue in a way that reflects the vast majority of Southwest’s customer base or the potential customer base for airlines in general. “Can Southwest get the Hawaii revenue premium without Premium Economy and first class options?” For the vast majority of travelers, the cost for those add-ons is prohibitive. Most people in a 175-person plane are going to be flying a red-eye in standard economy without access to a exit row or an upgrade to first class regardless of what airline they’re flying. PE and 1st options aren’t available on *any* SW flights and at present, they fly cross-country routes (such as BWI-OAK, which is about the same length flight as it would be to Hawaii) and are the #1 domestic carrier by passenger count. In short, I don’t think that Hawaii is any different than any other market they serve – and in fact neatly aligns with their leisure-destination focus.
Also, I’m not certain that red-eye flights are a foregone conclusion on these routes. While there are huge differences in their models, look at the Alaska flight schedules between OAK, SMF, and SAN and Hawaii. All of those depart the mainland in the morning and return during the evening, with no overnight flights involved. If Southwest attempts to do the same model of serving passengers primarily in the market of flight origin – say from PHX or DEN – or allows overnight layovers, as Alaska does, then red-eyes may not even wind up being an issue at all.
Thank you for your comments, you’ve left a lot here to work through. I’ll adress a couple of them. First, let’s talk about the Hawaii premium, which is not unlike the Dublin premium. Dublin-Boston is closer than Boston-LAX, yet coach seats go on sale for the Dublin flights down to as low as $400 at best (yes this includes some international taxes) but it usually sits around $550. Comparing that to a coach trans-con to the farther LAX from Boston and sale prices can be half as much ($200 roundtrip) but routinely rest around $350-400. So why does Dublin get a premium that LAX coach seats do not? Because it’s Europe and people will pay more for that, they view it differently. Similarly, Hawaii flights (shorter from the west coast than West-East coast flights) have traditionally been much more expensive for a shorter distance. Why? Because there is a market premium there. I’ll pay more to fly direct even if I might miss an upgrade on domestic flights but on redeyes it’s a different story for me.
Which leads me to the redeye question. I hope they don’t fly redeyes but I think the fo Guys you’ve listed are the exception and not the rule. Frankly, I haven’t researched that aspect of it at great length but remember having limited options when I returned from Hawaii for daytime flights and that the hotels seemed to expect a redeye return selling late checkout to anybody at checkin because of this.
To Southwest being the #1 domestic carrier, this is of course fact. But that only happened once they began to move into major city markets, added elite tiers and more or less offered products for the business traveler. Southwest built a whole market strategy around Manchester, NH over Boston Logan and maintain that model in some elements but not others. It’s why they fly into San Jose, Oakland but now also into San Francisco. Their customer base has changed and they have adapted. I think the discerning traveler may fly with other carriers because of IFE, Y+/F offerings, and meal options. But I could be wrong. If those flights were really that successful though it makes me wonder why Allegiant only serves the market in a limited fashion compared to Airlines that offer those additional services.
Thanks for replying – this is an interesting discussion. I wasn’t intending to come off as doubting that Hawaii commands a price premium. My point there was that it is right in the Southwest wheelhouse – primarily a leisure destination. Certainly, there are some customers willing to pay extra for PE or 1st on that route, they just aren’t as plentiful as they would be between larger business hubs. Which is why, until recently, the 1st-class products on Hawaii routes tended to be dated and generally didn’t include lie-flat seating. I just don’t believe that your average consumer, who is flying economy anyway, is going to be dissuaded by the absence of PE or 1st.
The bigger issue for me – as another commenter pointed out – is the absence of inflight power. Since SW IFE is all shifted onto the passenger’s device, you’ll likely have some unhappy passengers without power. You’d think that by the time they enter the market, SW would have to have figured out an overwater wifi plan, but who knows.
I’m not sure it matters why SW is the largest airline by volume – it is. And if its entry into the more competitive (and higher landing fee) airports has precipitated that growth as you say, I’d argue that makes it more likely that they succeed in the Hawaii market. If they’re able to hold their own against higher service airlines in more business oriented markets like Boston, NYC, and the Bay, and experienced growth into the nation’s largest-volume carrier by entering those primary markets, I’d say that makes it more likely that they succeed in Hawaii as well.
My overall point, though, is that we – this community of points-obsessed people – is probably not a great barometer for what the “average” consumer is looking for in their flight experience. For your standard consumer, price is the #1 consideration, a reality that enables ULCCs to be successful (I don’t think that your average consumer is any more likely to pay extra to fly direct, for example, something that many of us would).
Speaking as someone who recently left the Bay Area, my anecdotal guess as to why Allegiant failed where Alaska has succeeded is in the frequency of departures. Out of Oakland, for example, Alaska flies almost if not daily to HNL and OGG and at least four times a week to LIH and Kona. Alaska, before last year, was not really a big presence in the Bay Area and given the flight schedules out of Oakland and SJC, didnt really offer the opportunity for connecting traffic elsewhere. Allegiant, if I recall correctly, only flew out the markets from which they served Hawaii a couple of times a week – pretty standard Allegiant practice. But if a casual consumer can’t get flights on days that meet their schedule (i.e., I’d like to leave Wednesday and return Sunday because that’s what my work schedule can accommodate), that makes them way less attractive, especially for a vacation destination like Hawaii. That, combined with the absence of feeder traffic, some bit markets like Bellingham, Boise, Eugene, Fresno, and Stockton, and competition on the routes (LAX to Honolulu is an awfully difficult space to squeeze in, for example) all contributed to their failure there.
As to the red-eye issue, I was just taking a guess there, but I think it likely that they would operate red-eyes on those routes for the reasons you state. Just think pointing out that it doesn’t necessarily have to be that way depending on how they want to serve the market. For the record, when I fly to Hawaii next month, I deliberately staged an overnight connection to avoid a red-eye using separate Alaska and SW ticketing. Cheers.
Alaska did it for a decade before having their Y+ analogue. So did Aloha before then…
And they may still be successful. But will you book Southwest then over their wide-ranging competition?
it’s funny how WN loves boasting being #1 domestic and yet their route and frequency offering is close to worthless in the largest metro in the nation.
I’m not a Southwest apologist but perhaps if they can be the largest domestic carrier and still have a weak presence in NYC, that suggests that there’s a great big country out there outside of the five Burroughs.
Southwest Hawaii
Regarding flight times and the possibility of eastbound redeyes, Southwest’s choice of flight times may have to do more with aircraft turns than passenger preferences for “daytime” only flying.
Many Hawaii flyers (myself included) like the late-night departures eastbound returning to the mainland, because it gives the feeling of a full last day on the island without an accompanying extra hotel night.
A 10:30pm HST island departure would arrive at approximately 7:00am local SFO time March-November and 6:00am local SFO time November-March (with PDT/PST time differences and assuming a 5 ½ hour flight time). I sleep well on airplanes, so I gladly seek out a late departure time to sleep during the eastbound return. That also provides for convenient early morning onward connections as needed depending on the ultimate destination.
That 10:30pm departure might be operated by an aircraft that arrived just a few hours earlier, in order to maximize aircraft utilization. Assuming, say, a 8:00pm HST island arrival, that puts the SFO departure time of that aircraft at 5:30pm/4:30pm (PDT/PST). That’s “daytime” enough for many flyers, also giving suitable time for inbound connections if originating elsewhere beyond the gateway city.
So, an aircraft leaving theoretically leaving SFO at 4:30pm PST will be back at SFO at 6:00am PST. I’m fully aware that turns in Hawaii may not strictly be one airframe in-same airframe out. Earlier arriving airframes may operate that theoretical 10:30pm departure, but then that means another airframe may sit longer?
Now to the eastbound “no redeye” preference. If someone “must” fly eastbound arriving at a supposedly-preferable 8:00pm PST, then their departure is about 1:00pm HST. Still perfectly fine for an assumed 11am-ish hotel checkout. A 4:00pm PST arrival is a 9:00am HST departure, and so on.
That brings us back to aircraft turns. A 9:00am HST departure means an aircraft will have likely been sitting idle at HNL overnight, since not many interisland or mainland departures would probably operate past midnight.
This got longer and longer as I wrote this, but it’s just stream-of-consciousness thinking about how Southwest will have to plan utilization and turns to keep from idling aircraft overnight in Hawaii – if in fact passengers object to eastbound redeyes.
Of course, in reality, the issue of turns will depend on what cities/flights get scheduled, which may result in more aircraft to utilize efficiently (or available to be allowed to idle). Southwest is, of course, famously known for tight turns, so typical legacy airline scheduling conventions may not apply. There may be room for both options eastbound – daytime only or redeye – depending on the proclivities of Southwest’s customer base.
WN is getting seats with charging capabilities- they announced it earlier in the year. Perhaps these are the planes they’ll use to fly to Hawaii. WN is a smart cookie, I’m sure they’ve thought of all the above mentioned situations and have something in the works to address all of them. I’m a 2/monthly biz traveler and exclusively fly WN unless they don’t go where I need to- which is rare these days- but I’m out of DEN, so I can go non-stop just about anywhere. I’ve been an ALister as long as they’ve had the program, so I know how they operate and am OK with no PE/F class because my philosophy is as long as there’s a seat for me and I get where I’m going on time, I really don’t care (and would assume 90% of WN travelers share this same idea), but my monthly long, long haul international traveling hubby would disagree 🙂
Some of your comments support my statements that Southwest flyers are no longer discount seeking leisure travelers – your access to direct flights from DEN on non-regional planes and no non-sense service has won you over. But I’m guessing you aren’t going to Hawaii by yourself, so who will win if you and your husband decide to go? Your husband, or yourself? I’m not sure they have solved all of those issues but their announcement was so anemic that I really can’t tell anything about their offering. I do like Southwest but find their fares are too high for me to seek them out, I also enjoy first class upgrades so I haven’t really concentrated on Southwest. Maybe that will change with these expanding options.