The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs, but the US travel slump runs deeper than trade policy. Will the ruling actually change anything?
Friday was a big day in American legal history. The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump that President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff program, built on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, was unconstitutional. Chief Justice John Roberts wrote that IEEPA “does not authorize the President to impose tariffs,” noting that no president had ever used the law this way before Trump, and that “extraordinary” executive power requires clear congressional authorization. The ruling strikes down the country-by-country “reciprocal” tariffs, which ranged from 34% on Chinese goods to a 10% baseline for the rest of the world. With $160 billion in tariff revenue collected since the policy began and a potential refund burden the Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates at $175 billion, the economic stakes are genuinely enormous.
This was, in part, the reason many traveler gave for passing on trips to the United States.
The Numbers Tell a Complicated Story
The US had a rough 2025 in terms of inbound tourism, arguably its worst non-pandemic year in recent memory. International arrivals fell 5.4%, with total visits expected to drop from 72.4 million in 2024 to 67.9 million. The World Travel and Tourism Council projected that the US would lose $12.5 billion in international visitor spending, making it the only economy out of 184 analyzed projected to see a tourism revenue decline. Tourism Economics had originally forecast an 8.8% increase in international visitors for 2025 before revising that to a 9.4% decrease after Trump’s tariff announcements. A swing that large is not something you can pin on trade policy alone.
The Trump Administration’s trade deals had a stated effort of resolving the US’ nearly trillion-dollar trade deficit by making it more expensive for foreign entities to to sell goods cheaper than American equivalents. As a result of increased cost for foreign goods, the tactic was meant to encourage US companies to invest locally alongside foreign partners seeking access to the US market which accounts for 25-26% of the entire global economy.
While trade deals and tariffs might have been the lightning rod that gave visitors a reason to skip the US, the general approach of the Trump Administration and disagreements over policy and political position were more likely the true reason.
Canada Is The Case Study Worth Examining
No country illustrates the complexity here better than Canada, historically the single largest source of foreign tourists to the US. Canadians contributed $20.5 billion to the US economy in 2024. What happened in 2025 was, by any measure, a collapse. Vehicle border crossings fell 30% year-over-year for ten consecutive months, air travel from Canada to the US dropped 24%, and leisure carrier Air Transat exited the US market entirely. By the end of 2025, the US had lost roughly $4.5 billion in Canadian tourism spending.
The Canadian boycott started because of tariffs, but it did not stay there. Trump’s repeated suggestions that Canada should become the “51st state” struck a cultural nerve that trade policy alone cannot explain. Stories of Canadians being detained at the US border added fear to indignation. Surveys from Angus Reid found 70% of Canadians were uncomfortable traveling to the US, and nearly two-thirds told YouGov and Flight Centre Canada they were less likely to visit. These were not people waiting for a tariff ruling before booking a flight to Florida.
Denmark Took The Opposite Approach
In late January, VisitDenmark sent an email to approximately 6,000 US-based travel advisors and tour operators to proactively reassure them that Americans are still welcome in Denmark, specifically in response to anxiety around Trump’s Greenland annexation threats. The email had a very high response rate, which tells you how hungry the travel industry was for that clarity. VisitDenmark’s US marketing manager confirmed there had been no reports of bad travel experiences or anti-American sentiment on the ground, noting Danes “see a difference between people and the government.” US travel to Denmark was actually up 8.3% in 2025.
It is a genuinely interesting counterpoint to the Canadian angle. Canada’s boycott of the US is because of how it has been treated. Denmark, whose territory is being threatened with annexation, is going out of its way to reassure American travelers they are still welcome. The contrast between those two responses is fairly striking, and probably worth noting. Increased traffic numbers suggest that it’s working.
What The Ruling Actually Changes, And What It Doesn’t
The SCOTUS decision is meaningful on constitutional grounds, but the administration’s response was immediate. Within hours, Trump signed a new executive order invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, imposing a 10% global tariff. Section 122 caps the rate at 15%, comes with a 150-day limit, and requires congressional approval for any extension. The administration has also signaled it will use Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 for broader tariff expansion, which allows tariffs on national security grounds with no upper limit but requires a lengthy Commerce Department investigation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent still projected “virtually unchanged tariff revenue in 2026.”
Given that courts struck down the IEEPA tariffs at the International Court of Trade, at the Court of Appeals, and then at the Supreme Court, it is a reasonable bet that aggressive new tariff structures under Section 122 or Section 232 will draw immediate legal challenges and strong arguments for injunctions. The legal reasoning that ended the IEEPA tariffs does not disappear just because the administration cites a different statute.
Further, it’s unclear what will happen to the funds collected during the period. If they were illegal to impose, they are would need to be returned but is this to consumers, businesses, and in what manner?
Was US Travel Ever Really Just About Tariffs?
The 2026 FIFA World Cup was supposed to be a generational tourism windfall for the US, but travel bans on Senegal, Ivory Coast, Iran, and Haiti, all World Cup qualifiers, have already clouded the picture. International travelers make decisions based on how they expect to be received, not just what things cost, and the US has been losing ground on that front in a way that a court ruling cannot directly address.
The Supreme Court’s ruling is a landmark decision on executive power and deserves to be recognized as such. But the idea that it will meaningfully reverse the decline in international tourism to the US is likely wishful thinking. Tariffs gave a lot of people a concrete reason to stay away, but the underlying concerns went deeper and accumulated faster than any single policy could explain. With new tariffs already signed and legal battles almost certain to follow, the trade environment is nowhere near settled. The US travel industry, heading into what should have been its best year in a generation, is going to find that rebuilding trust with international visitors requires a lot more than a favorable Supreme Court decision.
What do you think?
Contrary to what people really wish to believe, international travel has not collapsed. Florida saw a 4% increase in overseas arrival and a record year since 2019.
That is absolutely not correct as a country. Florida is not the nation. Travel to the U.S. slid 7% and future bookings are down 4%. We were THE ONLY developed nation in THE WORLD where travel declined as a destination.
Expect that to continue now even more as TSA PRE and Global Entry have been canceled.
re stats, correct, but impact of tsapre/GE pause not so. how many inbound foreign travelers participate in those programs? must be mostly business travelers or wealthy travelers. even with 2010 citizens united v fec, surely they don’t have that much leverage with us govt?!
the tsapre/GE pause is about inflicting pain on rich americans who travel more (for business and pleasure) and congresspeople who will lose security details too at airports to force them to bend to the knee of the executive.
Kyle, I am really not understanding how you are relating tariffs to the significant decline of travel to the U.S. It’s been made quite clear, especially in yesterday’s NYT’s article, that the sentiments of those canceling or deciding to go elsewhere is about Trump, aggressive border controls, and general violence in the country. With Canada significantly leading that charge. France and Germany right behind. It’s not about tariffs, lol. It’s about MAGA fascism causing people to be rightfully afraid.
Further, tariffs are not over. In fact they are now 15% globally. And for some of us it’s actually worse. I just returned from Australia a few days ago and in meetings there negotiated a large shipment coming to the U.S. I went from 10% to 15% overnight and with no warning and real consequences to my deal. This is tariffs 2.0. While the tariffs have been bad enough as a whole, the thing that is making every business crazy is the constant overnight changes this lunatic decides on when he has a temper tantrum. And that is only going to get worse now as he works towards the loopholes already discussed.
bingo Antwerp – the trump policies not specifically tariffs are responsible for drop in inbound usa travel.
and through other questionable authorities afforded to him through the office, he has indicated his desire to continue using tariffs at ~15% effective rate globally, which is just 2% lower than the global effective rate (based on 2024 imports) of 17% as it was on Thursday before scotus ruling. So, when comparing to where usa was through most of 2025, I would say if you were to prognosticate on inbound leisure travel to usa in 2026, you’d have to be a ‘seller,’ not a buyer. And let’s remember this is against a backdrop of most major foreign currencies appreciating significantly vs dollar in past year. usa is just not as attractive for policy and political reasons.
Correct, it is indeed about the unwelcome climate that the Trump administration’s policies have created. Add to that his inflammatory rhetoric and racist/ xenophobic comments, I certainly do not feel safe visiting the United States while someone like him is in power. Sad, as I genuinely enjoy visiting the United States.
Kyle nailed it with the last sentence. Rebuilding trust can take years when one man has spent our social currency.
Tariffs aren’t the reason people are avoiding the US… it’s Trump; it’s his paramilitary (ICE). C’mon.
Spot on.
It may also be worth mentioning that several European governments have travel warnings issued to their citzens about going to the US. Ireland is just one example.
Talking about this issue without mentioning ICE is ridiculous. Two stories this week about UK and Irish citizens arrested for months with no recourse. Major coverage throughout Europe. This is why people are cancelling trips.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/21/karen-newton-valid-visa-detained-ice
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/10/irish-man-ice-detention-fears-life-ireland-help-seamus-culleton
From what I can see on the other side of the pond, people have turned their back on the US and will continue to do so while Criminal Trump and his junta remain in power as there’s no knowing what the toddler will do next and once they have gone, it will take time for us to trust the US regime again. If for instance Criminal Trump is succeeded by the ill mannered lout, Vance they your tourism industry will collapse completely so good luck to you on that one.
There’s a big world out there though many US citizens don’t know it and plenty of better, more interesting things to see and do. Tourism doesn’t need the US and I think you’ll need to find out the hard way.
Can someone explain why the imposition of a tariff on imports would cause someone to not travel to a country? I’m trying to be objective here, I just don’t understand it.
For the Canadians at least, they see it as the US turning its economic back on its closest ally and trading partner, without any cause. They can retaliate in kind by not sending dollars to the US, for goods or travel services.
So it isn’t Trump calling their PM governor, referring to them as the 51st state, or just general violence in the streets, Canadians are mad and refusing to come to the USA because Americans now have to pay tariffs on goods imported from Canada. I appreciate their frustration on having their closest ally turn their back on them, I’m just surprised to hear that tariffs specifically are why Canadians don’t want to visit the US
Canadians are really bruised after their men and women were trounced at hockey by the Americans.
And now the Canadians can’t even travel to Mexico’s Pacific coast.
Sometimes life imitates art.
1. A 2-1 victory in overtime is hardly defined as a “trouncing.” But go ahead gloating as if it somehow defines anything. It was a healthy competitive moment in sport. Not a nationalist moment of superiority.
2. As if the Mexican Pacific coast is the end all be all? You make it sound like it’s the only place Canadians can go to outside of the U.S. Are you really so sheltered as to the world within your address in Atlanta to think that they are somehow suffering? And you mock them as such? Wow.
3. “Life imitating art” will be in November when your fascist self is shocked to learn that the majority of Americans do not want the sculpting of America to be like this.
Just go back to arguing about Delta. You were a more tolerable A-Hole when that was your schtick.
There may be a number of reasons, including feelings about Trump, but don’t forget that travel in the US is increasingly expensive, while travel in a lot of the EU, at least, is relatively cheap, at the same time that the economy in the EU is not performing very well. That seems to be why a lot of people in the US have been increasingly vacationing in Europe. Affordability always influences behavior.
Yes, tariffs and not the completely illegal detainments of foreigners who are here legally and held without due process for weeks is what is keeping people from coming to the US.
Interesting article today in the Guardian about a 65 year old British Retiree who was detained for 6 weeks without ever getting to speak to a lawyer and offering to self deport on day 1. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/21/karen-newton-valid-visa-detained-ice
Who cares ??? As far as I’m concerned, less mobs and crowds at all the hotspots, airlines, airports, etc. We’re outnumbered by foreigners in this country already, who needs more? Maybe if Disney and all these other tourist spots would lower their entry fees, more AMERICANS can “visit” the country they live in.
Apparently our economy needs foreigners.
Business owners and staff care. US went from trade surplus to deficit last year on international travel. Businesses who count on it are hurting.
Wonder what percentage is due to all the losers intending to overstay their visa, but now deciding it is not the best time for that plan. The number of people overstaying is in the millions.
Good point, thank you.
Some European countries economies are not growing much, including Germany, so no of course some will not travel to the U.S. It is what a lot of Americans are doing traveling close to home, albeit still to Mexico and cruising the Caribbean, but that most likely will change now for resorts.
I will attempt to add a bit of colour from a Canadian perspective who, until recently, thought nothing of crossing the border for a day or two or week at a time, or frankly even for 20 minutes to pick up a parcel at the UPS Store. I think the notion of tariffs is, as some have pointed out, simply part of a broader feeling of disappointment that the elected U.S. government sees Canada, not as a sovereign nation, ally, and economic partner, but akin to another state or territory that can be bullied into submission. While we are not the loudest in the room, we are a proud country and see ourselves as quite distinct to Americans in many ways, notwithstanding a broad overlapping middle in a Venn diagram sense. So, with all of the threats and rhetoric aimed at us for the past 12+ months, people naturally felt, frankly, why should we spend our money somewhere that values us so little? DeSantis even directly belittled Canadians and the impact we have on Florida’s economy. So instead, we’re going to Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, South America, Portugal, Spain, Greece, Thailand, etc. The U.S. is by far more convenient, but in the spirit of this being an aviation blog (that I love), the sheer availability of flights to alternative destinations, and the ability for airlines to pivot relatively quickly to changing demand patterns, means that it has been relatively simple to cast our tourism dollar net far wider than before. On a related note, we are even actively avoiding connecting through the U.S. when travelling overseas. We previously thought nothing of a connection through Newark or O’Hare or Dulles.
I miss Lake Placid, NY dearly. It is one of my favourite places in the world, and a mere three-hour drive from my house. I would go multiple times a year, spend money on hotels, on lift tickets at Whiteface, and marvel at the hiking infrastructure of the Adirondacks. But to be honest, we have amazing hiking and skiing at home too, and Canadians are rediscovering the pleasures of both domestic travel and travel further afield. The impact on the U.S. may seem to be minimal, but travelers are definitely voting with their wallets. I for one hope sanity prevails in the end, for all of our sake.