I’ve closely followed award space availability for years and have never seen a shoulder season in Europe quite like this one, with premium cabin demand seemingly through the roof in both directions.
A Busy European Shoulder Season: Transatlantic Flights Are Packed Once Again In Premium Cabins
My experience is anecdotal, but I still spend a lot of time looking at premium cabin award availability and upgrade space and have been surprised at how packed flights are traveling both eastbound and westbound on transatlantic routes ranging from Dublin to London to Frankfurt to Vienna to Zurich to Paris to Amsterdam to Copenhagen.
And I contrast that to July and August when I had a much easier time securing premium transatlantic space across a variety of carriers at attractive last-minute mileage pricing (or confirmed upgrades using miles). In fact, it was almost scary how easy it became to get cheap last-minute space on American Airlines…I began to wonder if demand was cratering.
The historic model has been that around this time of year, it becomes much easier to find award space on transatlantic flights. And perhaps as we progress through the shoulder season and into the colder months, we will see that trend return.
But not now…not lately. On the bright side, the flights have plenty of space: economy class cabins are wide open and economy class awards are cheap. If you have to travel between the USA and Europe quickly, you can use your miles or book on Norse Atlantic…and you won’t break the bank.
But those last-minute premium cabin seats have not been opening. I’m not concerned…yet. I don’t think we are suddenly seeing a coordinated effort by carriers from across the USA and Europe to eliminate “saver” award space at the last minute. Instead, I see when looking at loads that these flights are full. The ominous warnings of a steep drop in airline demand are not happening yet…
What has been your experience in finding transatlantic award space in premium economy, business class, and first class?
image: Air France
I’m seeing the same. I would not be surprised to see inflation tick up again.
Shoulder season is when folks over 60 travel, less crowds and no kids. Many in this demographic could afford paying for premium seats. It’s always been easier to get premium awards in summer than fall expect for 2023.
I’ve never had as much trouble in the month of September than I’ve had this year than in my 11 years in business.
This just fits the historic trans-Atlantic travel pattern. July and particularly August are extremely weak for trans-Atlantic business class travel. September is strong and October is peak for business class travel, and yes, economy traffic might be weak.
@David … +1 . However , will the stay in Europe be all business ? No .
While that tended to be totally correct pre 2020…there were still always plenty of last minute seats in September and October. As well, even during the craziest days of revenge travel the past few years, last minute J or F were never an issue. Even though very often the number of seats on many routes had gone down.
Agree with Matthew….this is far beyond anything I’ve ever witnessed in nearly 30 years in this game. My take is that all of a sudden business travel has exploded out of nowhere. I have noticed personally a change in demographics in premium cabins the past month. A lot more clearly solo business oriented travelers on all my flights compared to couples and retired people the past few years.
So, my take? Airlines let go a few months ago a lot of premium redemption seats for September and October in anticipation of a slow down they were all predicting. Then in late August business travel bookings surprised everyone for the fall in being far more robust than we have seen since pre-2020.
Yes on the lots of saver premium awards for Sept/Oct were made available months ago, booked, and airlines underestimated traditional biz travel during the fall.
My guess is that in June, July and August, most people traveling are families in vacation and they won’t spend the money on business class. People traveling now are usually retired that can spend time in Europe when it is less crowded and weather is nicer. They can afford two business class tickets.
@Santastico can afford first class tickets for his extended family .
Simply a case of supply and demand. Airlines loving that.
Would be interesting to see the degree to which this correlates with the surge of 22 to 40 yo using points to acquire luxury experiences. Especially those with young children.
Would also be interesting to see whether this is also happening on routes less frequented by US consumers.
Regardless, worth watching as this is different from what we would have seen 5 years ago.
Swiss and Lufthansa used to be my “go-to” for last-minute business class mileage ticket space on transatlantic flights at this time of year. This year it’s been slimmer pickings than it used to be, but I am finding some last-minute regular paid biz class deals on some transatlantic routes that just don’t seem to make much sense to me yet — such as Delta having much cheaper TATL business class fares for round trip travel out oF MSP than Amex Travel would show even for (Platinum/Centurion account) IAP fares.
Our preferred time for European travel has almost always been spring and fall. For the last several years we have booked last minute and never had a problem with finding business class seats. Even this spring it was easier than it seems right now. It took a lot more effort in the last couple of weeks to get ticketed, but we eventually returned to the US on the days we wanted, with reasonable award itineraries, although one of us had to settle for BA 1st with $600 in taxes and fees. LOL
I just had a look now and you’re right – even when US flights have been tight, routes like FRA-MEX or the infamous TK ‘Biden Express’ to BOG would be wide open in premium cabins. Not the case right now, you have to be very flexible with dates and/or routings in order to cross the pond.
Regardless of the actual cause – this is probably the third year in a row when commentators (including your buddy Kyle) have expected “cratering demand in the fall” and seem to be off base.
What seemed to happen is that airlines dumped capacity to Europe over the summer and probably overshot demand (but where else would you fly). It’s also a weak business travel time period. Seasonally, business travel picks up in September and October, including transatlantic. And you still have shoulder season leisure travel. So planes are more full.
Different market but there are almost no premium awards on star alliance or one world out of Sydney right now. Usually there is some ba or Ana to Singapore or tokyo. Just getting the “nothing matches your search” from American
Just some advice and takeaways from what I’m seeing. AA seems to be the only one where a few, and I mean just a few, last minute J flights TATl are opening at saver rates. Looks like it’s coming into the system during the evening but is quickly gone….so be fast.
Star Alliance is forget about it. Vienna is really astounding, it’s like Vienna Airport closed in September. There is nothing and Austrian seems to have shut down award travel completely. Even economy on most days anywhere on OS. LH F cabins are non-existent mostly other than last minute to DEL or EZE. However, strangely, F did just open from IAD on Sunday. One of the very few F flights TATL I’ve seen open all month. The only other thing that does pop up on some days is on Brussels to IAD – but often with overnights from other European cities connecting to it,
This is why is also why staff travel sucks compared to a few years ago. Value proposition has declined
Just flew Icelandair JFK >KEF >JFK. Never felt more cramped as in any prior flight on any other airline. Yet, no “extra legroom” or “economy plus” offered on the jet. Only upgrade was “SAGA” which was sky high in price and dubious in value. Lost opportunity on the part of the airline.