Which airlines are most likely to release award space at the last-minute?
We book a lot of last-minute tickets at Award Expert. In fact, booking tickets less than a week prior to travel has developed into our main business.
Generally, award space works like an inverted bell-curve. Many programs release space if you can book 11-12 months in advance. Award space availability becomes progressively worse as the months go by until a point about two weeks before travel. Suddenly, the floodgates start to open again. By the time you reach 24-72 hours prior to travel, often the best award space opens: the nonstop flights everyone wants.
I am speaking generally, of course. Award space will not open on a sold-out flight. Some carriers fail to release award space even when there are many unsold seats. But generally, a broad range of carriers convert unsold seats into last-minute award inventory.
Here are 10 carriers I have found are most generous in releasing last-minute award seating.
1. Lufthansa
When it comes to European travel, I book more trips on Lufthansa than any other carrier. Lufthansa is excellent about releasing last-minute space in economy, business, and first class. Space will often start to appear as far as two weeks in advance, but generally gets much better in the three days prior to travel.
2. SWISS
SWISS has been a great source of award space throughout the year: it is much more generous than has been in the past with business and economy class space. But as travel draws near, SWISS opens up even more space.
3. Emirates
Emirates consistently opens last-minute upgrade and award space. Book with JAL miles to save big on overall cost or book with Alaska Airlines to save on fuel surcharges.
4. Etihad
Etihad has been much stingier lately on releasing space in advance, but is still a good source for last-minute longhaul award space in all three cabins.
5. Cathay Pacific
Like many others, Cathay Pacific is not as generous as it once was in releasing last-minute space. Nevertheless, last-minute space, particularly in premium cabins, often pops up on longhaul routes. Note that all Cathay Pacific award space is currently unavailable. That is (likely) just a temporary glitch.
6. Japan Air Lines
Japan Air Lines starts to release space about a week before travel, with all four cabins (including premium economy) showing increased award space. JAL also is a decent carrier for releasing award space further in advance.
7. United Airlines
United Airlines has released a lot more award space lately throughout the year, not just in advance. Even if the product is not leading (I’d argue it is perfectly competitive), it is often a great source for finding multiple award seats. After a couple years of not releasing last-minute award space, United is once again releasing a lot of last-minute space.
8. Austrian
Austrian is one of your better options for booking in advance, but also releases last-minute award space. This space opens to/from both North American and Asia, with more limited openings on shorthaul routes.
9. Malaysia Airlines
Malaysia Airlines is very stingy with award space in advance: often one business class and two economy class seats per flight. But at the last minute, space is more likely to open. I recently used AA miles to book last-minute tickets from Singapore to Tokyo via Kuala Lumpur. The entire first class cabin (four seats) opened to award space.
10. ANA
ANA space is a bit more unpredictable, but if you are looking for first class space you can often score it at the very-last minute. For North American flyers, I find routes from Chicago and Washington are best to secure this award space.
You’ll notice a lot of Star Alliance space, not a lot of SkyTeam and oneworld. If you’re a last-minute flyer, that might be a great reason to consider shifting loyalty to Star Alliance. American and Delta offer last-minute award space, but it is rarely at the “saver” level. Delta’s SkyMiles program loosely ties award pricing to the price of revenue tickets, meaning last-minute tickets are often the most-expensive…even when there are plenty of seats available. Major carriers like Air France, British Airways, Korean, and KLM used to release more last-minute award space, but I’ve seen it far less lately.
CONCLUSION
These are the patterns of last-minute award space, but always keep in mind that award space can open when you least expect it. The best time to book an award trip is NOW. As soon as you are set upon dates, start searching for award space. Even if you’re now 4-6 months from travel, a period in which award space typically is most difficult, you never know what might pop up. But if you cannot find any space, keep the carriers above in mind. Chances are, space will eventually open.
Finally, also keep in mind that keeping your points in Chase Ultimate Rewards, Citi Thank You, or American Express Membership Rewards is wise. Since we don’t know which carrier will open at the last-minute, better to have your points in a program that offers the most flexibility in spending them.
> Read More: Bold Confidence – Waiting Till The Very Last Moment To Book Award Ticket
image: Emirates
Great piece, Matt. Very relevant to my situation – I want to rebook my award flight on LH (business) to avoid a possible missed connection on a separate itinerary. I was planning on being in Chicago a couple days before my flight to MUC on LH. Plans changed and I’ll be in San Antonio the day of my flight to Munich so I bought a one way ticket to ORD on UA. I arrive at ORD about 2:30 hours before my late evening LH flight and I know I can through check my bag from SAT all the way to MUC. My concern is getting to ORD on time as the flight from SAT to ORD is late quite often. Fingers crossed that UA MileagePlus opens up business class saver space on SAT-MUC otherwise I will be rolling dice on arriving into ORD on time which is a scary thought.
I’ve found EVA really good about last min availability as well!
I have seen JAL open up space earlier than 1 week out. Sometimes it’s 2-4 weeks out. Cathay though seems to be about 1 week out.
Etihad has 3 first class seats unsold as of right now for today’s JFK to AUH and they still won’t release them for award bookings. I know they’re stingy but does it really cost more $$ to have that suite occupied by an award booking than having it go $0 revenue?
I’ve always asked that, too, and would love an industry insider to answer that. It can’t make fiscal sense to have any go empty. Since miles are essentially like cash in that spent miles are now out of the overall inventory – assuming they carry some relative form of cash value – one could easily presume that there’s some earnings equivalent of having a passenger expend miles for a seat. But that’s my layman’s view.
I’m not an industry insider, but an accountant by trade. Airlines (or any business with a loyalty program for that matter) record their future point redemption obligations as a liability on the books. My understanding is, if you spend, say, $500 on a ticket, the airlines hold back some percentage out of revenue to account for the miles issued. I don’t know what kind of value the airlines place on miles for this purpose, but yes, there would be some revenue recorded when someone makes a mileage redemption for the seat, and the liability is released. Probably not the full retail cost, but more than zero.
As a bean counter, the *logical* answer to me is that airlines should always encourage redemptions as you get closer to flight time, because any revenue is better than zero. Maybe the airlines that don’t release award space are gambling that they’ll get more revenue by overselling coach and then doing op-ups to empty J/F seats (i.e. if CX can sell a coach ticket for $1,000, but the release of liability only yields $750 of revenue, they’d rather have the $1,000).
Great information. It would be nice to include which airlines don’t have close-in ticketing fee.
Hi Karen,
That’s a whole different post, but agree it is important piece of info to know. I’ll work on that.
Is swiss releasing space to the entire star alliance. For a long time weren’t they only releasing space to their own members?
They still only release first class space to their own Senator member (on most occasions), but business and economy class are pleased to partners.
Superb post. Thoughtful and highly original. Perhaps a cross referenced post about change fees for non-elites might be pertinent, since you advise booking ASAP, and the above are all last minute.
Good post. I’ve not had a problem with Korean ever, but maybe it’s getting worse elsewhere.
WRT transferable currencies, I am currently in a battle with Chase. “Most transfers are instant” is not true anymore… I have a Twitter DM confirming that SEVEN days will become the standard.
However, I am now 15 days into a Hyatt transfer and nothing. I have gotten a universal GFY. First bad experience with Chase… but it’s very bad. And 7 days makes it totally uncompetitive imo.
Matt – what about creating a new dedicated section of your blog that lists the most up to date info for ‘best deals to XYZ region”
So for example:
Best deals to Europe:
-80K Korean Air miles + YQ
-best option #2
-best option #3
Best deals to SE Asia:
-best deal #1
-best deal #2
Best deals to South America:
-bla bla bla
You get the idea. Of course there are always gonna be caveats such as whether there are actually any award seats available on a regular basis, the balance of saving miles versus incurring fuel surcharges, how easy it is to rack up miles in that particular program (I.e. is the program a partner of UR, MR, TYP). But I think you are well qualified to strike the right balance of those factors.
I know you’ve discussed some of these sweetspots over the years but (1) these can quickly become out of date and (2) there’s no easy way for me to find these posts when I need them years after reading the original blog post. Would be much better as a dedicated section of the blog that is kept constantly up to date.
Thoughts?
Love the post I am planning a europe trip in a few weeks and don’t see any business class availability on my dates, do you know if I can book an economy trip with United points and upgrade if business class availability opens up last minute?
You can. Will cost you an extra 30-40K miles in each direction depending on whether United or a partner operates the overwater flight. Change fee is $150.