JetBlue Airways announced a third European city served by the “low cost” carrier this week. What cities are the next top contenders for JetBlue’s expansion into Europe?
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JetBlue’s Europe Expansion Continues
Amsterdam in the Netherlands was added to JetBlue’s European destinations this week, joining London and Paris, both served by New York’s JFK and Boston Logan International airports. Jetblue’s London Heathrow and London Gatwick flights were thought to receive stiff competition from British Airways (the route had been valued at more than a billion in revenue to the carrier) but have succeeded. Paris was added for this summer and Amsterdam follows at the end of the summer after a public battle with Airport Coordination Netherlands.
Like the routes between JFK and London, Amsterdam is expected to be a daily flight on the capable Airbus A321LR.
Where To Next?
In an article I wrote just over a year ago, I stated the following regarding potential expansion opportunities for JetBlue:
“Just a few more long-range planes could add Paris, Dublin, Amsterdam, Lisbon, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Manchester, and on the outskirts of that could be Madrid, Frankfurt, Munich, Copenhagen, Helsinki and others.”
I’m not nostradameus (although it’s certainly a compliment if JetBlue’s route planning department reads Live And Let’s Fly) but my prior post is looking fairly instructive. JetBlue’s Paris Charles De Gaulle routes and now Amsterdam indicate what the focus is. It’s not expansion for expansion’s sake but rather the carrier is looking at high fare markets where it can bring its Mint Suite (and Mint Studio) product to markets that could use some competition. I remarked in the Paris launch article that there was already so many flights from New York to Paris, mostly from John F Kennedy International Airport (but also from Newark.) Both service to Paris and London suggest that the carrier was just trying to spread its wings on routes that sold many business class seats.
Amsterdam suggests a departure from that model.
Dublin has heavy competition from Aer Lingus at the bottom of the market.
Lisbon may also fail to add the premium customers the carrier is looking for (though many Portuguese-Americans settled in the Providence, Rhode Island area and Massachusetts.) Competing head-to-head in Boston with a TAP A321 NEO levels the playing field some vs nearly all wide-body flights to Paris.
Edinburgh, and Glasgow have been seasonal destinations for the likes of United and American Airlines and while there is likely enough demand yearround for New York-based equipment, the carrier would likely have to sell connecting traffic to make those markets work through Boston.
Manchester remains the most attractive card on the table. As a former resident, I frequented the airport often and found as many as three daily flights from American, Virgin Atlantic and Delta, two more from United, and another from US Airways at the time. Just Virgin Atlantic and Aer Lingus operate to the states from the UK’s second-largest metropolitan area and with Leeds and Liverpool each a short train ride away, the passenger pool could create a massive opportunity. The flight distance wouldn’t require any adjustments for the A321LR and what’s more, it’s safely within the range for the A321 NEO (more on that shortly.)
Madrid from both Boston and New York are further opportunities, though Barcelona is probably outside of the comfortable safety reserve limitations of an A321 NEO. With a focus on premium capacity and some weight restrictions for cargo, both Spanish routes could be possible (though I deem them unlikely.)
Spirit’s Impact
If the acquisition of Spirit Airlines by Jetblue is approved by regulators, the combined carrier will pick up another two A321 NEOs Spirit has on order which enables another route. But it’s also possible that swapping Spirit aircraft (but with JetBlue interiors and livery) could free up aircraft that could be used for such flights. For example, if JetBlue were to utilize its combined fleet it might free aircraft up to continue this gorwth even before new deliveries arrive from Airbus in Toulouse.
Conclusion
JetBlue flights to Europe have been successful so far and the carrier continues to advance on the continent. Its high speed Wi Fi, extra legroom, and reasonable costs without compromising great service have been well received and I think there is further opportunity on the other side of the Atlantic. Whether it’s Lisbon, Manchester, or something else, it seems likely to me that the airline is not done exploring its marketability in Europe.
What do you think? Where will JetBlue fly to in Europe next?
MAD and DUB feel like obvious choices, but my sense is we’ll see B6 pause on the TATL stuff for a time to see how the network they’ve expanded, matures. Rumor is that LHR isn’t profitable, with fixed operating costs high.
As to the B6/NK merger, it ain’t happening. The structure of the merger is ludicrous. B6 is paying a huge premium for Spirit, which is really the issue, not the matter of slots and overlap in some markets, which the DoJ could easily resolve as a condition for approval. The price paid and the manner in which B6 went about pursuing Spirit is the issue for the regulators.
The future of B6 is a merger with AA several years down the road. B6 is glossy, but it runs a terrible operation and has for much of its existence.
They won’t get my business either way as they fired an FA who is a great person over social media. Too communist for me.
In this video I go over why I’m no longer a JetBlue flight attendant. I make sure to give you all the details in a professional manner as I believe this information can be beneficial to anyone in the industry wanting to use social media as a way to build their brand as a flight attendant and create a second source of income.
“I’m a Delta flight attendant and I dropped all of my social media for that same exact thing. Too many people looking to take others out for their views and beliefs if they don’t align with pop culture politically correct. Disappointed to hear they let you go although I’m not surprised one bit.”
Lisbon is a complete non-starter. TAP fares in both cabins are super competitive and they have access to a comprehensive array of connections throughout Europe and even to a few places in Africa. LIS is not a huge O&D market and they won’t think twice before dropping fares to a level which would be unsustainable for B6. I think a lot of that also applies to DUB. Assuming that DUS is within range, I would be studying that before anything else – in terms of both population levels and economic development, NRW feels more like a country than a state, and its people are already used flying on a variety of airlines as LH has long abandoned the concept of a focus city.
You have Portuguese spelled wrong but my dad’s side is that & Italian and settled in New England, so that checks out.
Lisbon is a challenge because Azores’ Airlines also serves it through PDL, and used to fly out of Providence as well seasonally
Would like to see some place in Germany as the next Euro foothold. Plenty of space at BER, but not much of a business location, mostly tourist. Munich and Frankfurt have business, but LUF would fight you like a rabid dog to keep the Fatherland PAX. I see Delta just opened service to GAT via JFK, which is a direct challenge to B6 service. Don’t need the Widget biting you on the “arse”.
As for the B6 & NK merger, the DoJ will fight it. And B6 will put out way too much money for NK. The offer s/h/b part money, part stock. And we still have not heard from the courts on the NEA. With B6’s recent reduction of service in the North East due to air traffic control restrains, B6 could use this a leverage with the DoJ.
Way too many variables at the moment to make a bet. I’m sure Mr. Hayes (CEO) and Ms. Geraghty (COO) have played out the scenarios five hundred ways.
Hows about Bristol or Birmingham?
Birmingham has great train links north south east and west, a big population, and very little / no competition.
Bristol used to have a Continental 757 from Newark, so the market is there but I would guess mainly tourist connecting traffic.
In general it doesn’t make sense to connect in the USA and have to mess about with reclaiming luggage and so on. It’s better to fly from BHX to CDG or FRA and then catch a flight to one’s final destination. I don’t know much about JetBlue’s network but I suspect that they aren’t anywhere near their larger competitors who have flights to hundreds of smaller airports in North America (which is where a BHX-US flight would come in handy to avoid having to connect twice).
LIS and MAN have a GDP per capital that is substantially lower than Tulsa. I don’t think the economics of a small plane with primarily O/D traffic are needed there. When I was a kid in Europe in the 90’s, BA ran a legitimate hub from MAN. It didn’t work, it wouldn’t now, and why should they? MAN residents want to fly to AGP and AYT, not JFK. LIS has more inbound traffic than outbound.
B6 needs to sell J fares. If all they do is ferry tourists to their holiday destinations on cheap Y fares they’re no different than Norse/Wow/PEOPLExpress. London works; Paris and Amsterdam seem less promising.
Goodness me! There is more to Manchester and northern England than whippets, flat caps and cheap booze trips to Benidorm 🙂 GDP per capita might be a useful metric for determining average wealth but an airline like B6 would not be targeting the mass market: just the upper 5-10% (say) keen on using J class.
Hey, I posted my message yesterday from Wales, so don’t you worry. I certainly don’t look down on Manchester in the slightest. I just think it’s an odd choice destination for what is essentially a US based boutique airline. I think ex-JFK (or BOS) B6 would fill a lot more premium seats to somewhere like EDI; it’s just a bigger market for US visitors than MAN. The upper 5%-10% (as you say) in metro New York is substantially larger than that of Manchester, who, to be fair, likely would be interested in flying to JFK.
Stick to London please! Expand services in LGW if LHR isn’t working out.
I could also maybe see service to FRA launching as well in the future, as well as maybe to DUS and/or BER. Maybe a seasonal flight to MXP or FCO as well.
Jetblue has 14 A321LRs on order, and each European airport with daily service requires one aircraft. If they fly the following routes:
JFK-LHR (2x daily)
JFK-LGW
BOS-LHR
BOS-LGW
JFK-CDG
JFK-AMS
BOS-CDG (in the future)
BOS-AMS (in the future)
This uses up 9 airframes. With 5 more airframes, JetBlue can launch up to 5 more European flights. I’d say FRA is given from both JFK and BOS. That leaves 3. Maybe MAN from JFK, BER/DUS from JFK, and a flight to Italy (FCO or MXP), which may work out better seasonal.
Jetblue also has some A321XLRs on order, which will help them expand in Europe and maybe South America. I could see flights to GRU, GIG being a given. I think B6 will surprise is with some of these new routes.
The best choice for the next city in Europe would be FRA hands-down! I routinely price business class seats from all over the USA into that hub and could tell you easily, despite the flexibility of Eurowings and Condor, that jetBlue could win this fight. Nonstop service between BOS, EWR or JFK would enable customers to link up with Lufthansa’s cheaper intra-Europe routes. I price them routinely, too, and they often are quite reasonable, even in coach. Many other carriers have good fare from FRA as well into the rest of Europe and the Middle East.
I will begin quarterly MCO/FRA flights in 2024Q23 and would LOVE to use B6 to my home airport. On a somewhat related note, jetBlue’s announcement of resumption of daily nonstop service MCO-ORH could give me an option if flights into BOS were too expensive from MCO. I would have to use rail or rideshare to make it into the Back Bay but options would be welcome for sure!