The new year is upon us and there are a number of trends both in the luxury travel space as well as in the points and miles space. Here’s what to expect in 2025.
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Luxury Trends For 2025
I recently began writing a column for a travel industry outlet focused on luxury travel agencies, Pomp & Circumstance. In the premier post, I outlined luxury travel trends for 2025, some of which I will reiterate here.
Closed-Door Suites In Business Class Become Standard
It was less than a decade ago that American Airlines was still operating “angled flat” business class seats in a 2-3-2 configuration on long haul flights to Asia, I have photos. Direct aisle access became the minimum as business class replaced first class on most carriers and a fully flat bed was the new standard. Now, closed-door suites have become a requirement for modern business class. The doors don’t go to the ceiling, there’s not total privacy, but it does keep the clatter of carts and passersby away from passengers heads as they try to sleep.
More Exclusive, Even More Luxurious Lounges
United Polaris elevated the business class lounge standard years ago, Delta’s new installations at LAX, JFK, and soon in Salt Lake City will not only make lounges a must-see attraction, but enhance the overall travel experience.
“Delta has a completely separate check-in area for Delta One customers, with its own private security checkpoint. From there, you board a private elevator that takes you directly to the Delta One Lounge. The entire experience from curb to lounge took less than five minutes.” – Inc.
American Airlines seems like the next candidate to revolutionize the lounge experience and following Delta’s model that looks beyond the traditional concept is one that it could enact in Dallas, or Miami to start.
JetBlue announced its own lounges as well, if it wants to compete it will have to elevate against competitors.
Elevation Of Boutique Properties
The Standard joined Hyatt this year, Mr. & Mrs. Smith replaced SLH who moved onto Hilton, and Tablet (which I have covered here) along with Michelin’s own hotel guide will continue to move guests past the classic business hotel and into boutique properties. This is my favorite trend so far in the hotel space. It gives small operators a chance to be noticed on a larger scale and grow, but it also offers loyal travelers a chance to find something apart from the same old, same old.
Alternative Expeditions
Antarctica, which has been successful for luxury expeditions in the past has grown beyond the supply with almost every sailing selling out in the 2024/2025 season across vendors. Next year’s 2025/26 season is pacing ahead of this year and will likely sell out before May. The Arctic ships are filling up too and the Kimberleys (northwest Australia) has filled too. Guests will want new adventures and there are periods for repositioning that will open up new opportunities. It will be exciting to watch for the announcements of new destinations and opportunities to expand exploration.
What Will Happen In Loyalty Programs
From a profitability standpoint, the tail now wags the dog with loyalty programs being the largest contributor to net profit for major carriers. How will things change in the new year?
United Follows American Airlines And Moves To Full Revenue-Based Loyalty
United has one foot in and one foot out of the fully revenue-based loyalty program concept. American is proving the model works for the carrier and its partners and in 2025, I predict that United will move to award loyalty based on the total financial relationship it has with its travelers/customer base.
Another Major Bank Will Enter Lounge Market
American Express led the way with its Centurion Lounges and has already gotten to the point where it’s remodeling or expanding existing spaces. Chase announced its own Sapphire lounges and the preliminary iterations have been incredible. Capital One has had a still slower approach to opening its lounges but is in the game. Will Citi join the fray? Perhaps Wells Fargo if they want to be serious about the premium market will add one of their own too.
In the case of Citi, its new exclusive with American Airlines (after Barclays left the equation) could lend to an easy partnership with the carrier to open its own spaces. Bank of America might also enter the conversation.
Southwest Will Become More Attractive With Innovation, Segmentation
Southwest Airlines has already departed from its prior self and has entered a more network carrier model. Its partnership with IcelandAir will be as much as it chooses to make of it. If Southwest starts to promote destinations in Europe, align positioning flights from key markets, and really step into the partnership. For what it’s worth, Southwest had already started its transformation years ago seeking more business flyers and moving into traditional large market airports. With assigned seating, elite, and fare segmentation there’s room to grow even more unique in the loyalty space. This could be a big year for Rapid Rewards to start truly challenging the flag network carriers on the loyalty program front, but it’s going to need to fully transition and that could be harder for an airline that has faced investor pressure and a changing C-suite.
General Travel Predictions
Outside of luxury and loyalty, there could be some big changes in 2025.
Something Will Happen With Spirit Airlines Or Its Assets
Spirit simply can’t go on as it is now. It will either need to fold into a new airline or be sold for parts. And the parts are really attractive to airlines right now as it continues to take new deliveries of highly desirable A320 family aircraft. The first quarter of the new administration will tell the story of how Spirit will move on but it won’t be able to continue as it is now.
JetBlue Tries For Oneworld Membership
JetBlue already tried to form a regional alliance with American Airlines (and may again in the new year, again due to the incoming administration that previously approved the tie-up.) But it could add value to a number of oneworld airlines as it tries to grow through its move to premium with non-Mint first class and continued efforts for trans-Atlantic flights where oneworld does well.
Breeze Completely Changes Trans-Atlantic Flight
Breeze is looking to start flights to Hawaii, England, and Ireland with an A220. The maximum range is 3,400-3,600 nautical miles but that doesn’t leave much room for contingency and limits the market for departures. Boston, and New York to Dublin are feasible but London puts a strain on the aircraft’s range. Washington Dulles is likely too far without some adjustments to the aircraft, and Buffalo doesn’t face the competition from Boston or New York but again pushes the range some.
Regardless, if Breeze begins operations with A220s that could change the trans-Atlantic market with much smaller seating capacity and operating thinner markets more affordably than larger variants and without the wait for new Boeing and Airbus aircraft which face delays and setbacks. The 757 did this once before, freeing airlines from massive equipment that made smaller markets untenable. If Breeze can make the A220 work, it could open up a new slate of routes and opportunity for new operators.
What are your predictions for 2025?
” … there are periods for repositioning which will open up new opportunities .”
Do you often use incomprehensible jargon ?
Are you attempting to say : “there may be schedule or destination changes ” ?
@Alert – Expedition cruise vessels primarily spend their busy seasons in the Antarctic summer (November-February) and the Arctic summer (May-September.) These two destinations are on the opposite sides of the world and they must “reposition” the vessels to the other pole. Lovely as it is, it can be difficult to sell an all-Brazil cruise on an expedition ship. Likewise for a Florida to New York run in May and for one specific week only. But one expedition line has chosen to move over to South Africa and climb north on the West coast venturing into hard to reach (due to fe airports) coastal African countries on its way to the Arctic circle. So the statement I am making is that these expedition cruise lines are pretty consistently full both this season and next for their primary markets but as they reposition between September and November, and back north February to May there will be new opportunities to find inspiring destinations with limited availability.
Repositioning in the cruise industry is about as common a term as “cabin”, it’s not jargon you might just be unfamiliar.
So , they will have thick red parkas in the event there is “climate cooling” in Ghana ?
“Repositioning” in Hawaii means something rather more fun .
AA’s lounge offering in JFK is pretty dope. What do you propose they do? Do you think Flagship lounges are uncompetitive?
@Jerry – That reminds me that I need to review whichever one my family enjoyed (Greenwich, maybe?) I think they are an interesting concept, plenty of space but it’s too complicated as to which one you fit into. At the time I was traveling I was a Platinum traveling on a business class ticket and according to the website belonged in one of the lounges but was told to go to the other one instead. I also didn’t feel like it was nearly as premium as an AMEX Centurion lounge and not even close to the new Chase Sapphire or Delta One lounges.
But what’s the killer feature? Delta’s check-in counter connected to the lounge with private security is a 100% improvement over everyone else. Considering the exact lounge I was referring to at JFK T8, check-in isn’t that far away from security and it’s not that far from the lounges, but to have a business class or first class experience from the curb and its own separate security process, right into the lounge – that’s different, that’s a category shift.
A Plat in J has access to the Greenwich lounge, which is the worst of the “premium” ones. The most tolerable part of it is the former Flagship Bridge. Most people don’t know how to get over there so it’s usually empty. Even such, I’d prefer any part of the Greenwich to any Centurion lounge. Greenwich has made to order food, a craft beer bar, champagne, and there’s literally never a wait to enter…but you don’t drink, so I suppose some of that is moot. If you had access to the Soho (Emerald) Lounge your experience would be even better.
Also, Flagship check-in does send you to a dedicated security line, you have an entire enclosed area to complete you check in formalities, and it is very easily accessible. AA does a lot of things wrong, but I don’t think the ground experience in T8 is one of them.
@Jerry – I will concede that American’s T8 JFK approach is special. But I mention that DFW and Miami (fortress hubs for American far more so than JFK even for the London shuttle partnership) don’t have anything transcendent as the Delta One lounge appears to be.
Southwest will greatly benefit from assigned seating and its business class arrangements. When one thinks of business travelers, we think of Don Draper with his business suit, attache case, fedora, living high on the expense account. There are many, many others who appreciate direct service between towns, have modest expense requirements, and abhor the “reserved seats” of the old WN. The new format will draw some revenue from the big three trunk carriers due to WN’s nationwide footprint. WN is moving from its sophomore mindset into it junior year of serious study.
Word of the year 2024 in Australia, according to the local dictionary, is “Ensh*ttification” – the continuing downgrade of customer service to sh*t. Qantas -perhaps the worst offender – became the most hated company in Australia in 2024 (later overtaken by a Singapore-based telecom when it went off the air for a day.)
Forecast for 2025 – the airline of each country will become the most hated company. For the USA, the airlines will overtake (undertake?) Comcast with even lousier customer support. Meanwhile AI will flood the internet with glowing reviews of these disgusting companies.
I agree with your point on elevating boutique hotels, and share your view that this is, on balance, a positive development. I’m curious though: to what degree do you think this is driven by quasi-partnerships with big loyalty programs vs exasperation with the more “standard” upmarket Marriotts, Hiltons etc and those same programs?
Speaking purely for myself, the biggest reason I’ve shifted from Marriott-aligned luxury properties to independent ones is that cumulative changes to hotel loyalty programs have made them far less compelling. I’m finding better experience, service, and value from independent hotels, and the main benefits I care about (late checkout, breakfast) are typically included if you book through the right outlets. Even as a lifetime platinum, there’s not much reason to book with Marriott anymore
@PHLFlyer – Before the big chains were around, every property was essentially unique and boutique but frequent travelers valued consistency over soul and as a former road warrior, I can appreciate this position. That said, it went too far and everything became homogenized. There’s a reversal of that.
As you state, we use a variety of programs to ensure the benefits are consistent but the hotels are unique.
B6 won’t last long enough to join oneworld, and MX will go broke before they exploit their misnomered Canadian regional jets.