A prominent Lufthansa board member has predicted that U.S. borders will not reopen to Europeans until Christmas. Is he being far too pessimistic or perhaps even too optimistic?
Lufthansa Board Member: U.S. Will Remain Closed To Europeans Till Christmas
Per Aviation Pros, the comment was made by Harry Hohmeister at an industry conference organized by TravelTalk. In making his assessment, he was blunt in questioning the logic of U.S. policymakers when case numbers in Europe were lower and vaccination rates were nearly equivalent. Indeed, in countries like Germany vaccine rates now exceed those of the United States after a very slow start last winter.
Only recently, Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr predicted a September reopening, but has walked that back, saying he would abstain from playing Nostradamus.
While Lufthansa has been hit by a lack of westbound leisure demand, its transatlantic flights have been “profitable” this summer due to strong American demand and even stronger demand for cargo transport.
Hohmeister remarked Lufthansa fills its passenger aircraft “to the rafters with cargo.”
When Lufthansa’s winter schedule begins on October 31st, the carrier intends to bring back its Boeing 747-400 into service to several U.S. destinations including:
- Boston (BOS)
- Denver (DEN)
- Miami (MIA) [currently a 747-8]
- Orlando (MCO)
- Washington Dulles (IAD)
Meanwhile, 747-8 service will continue to:
- Chicago (ORD)
- Houston (IAH)
- Los Angeles (LAX)
- New York (JFK)
- Newark (EWR)
- San Francisco (SFO)
The upguage from Airbus A330s to Boeing 747-400s represents hope for more cargo rather than a boom in passenger traffic during a period of historically lower demand.
CONCLUSION
I love Germans (hey, I married one), but they are always so pessimistic (my wife corrects me – “We are realist.”) In this case, though, I fear that Hohmeister is correct and probably even optimistic. As we enter the colder months and vaccine progress stalls in the USA thanks to a rampant misinformation campaign, case numbers will continue to rise. That will give the Biden Administration further cover to continue the ban. Indeed, I think a Christmas reopening would be a Christmas miracle. For Lufthansa, cargo will continue to save the day.
I thinks he’s being optimistic, the US will screw this up also.
Secondly, I wish LH would retire the A340, or at least give us here in ATL a 74 once in a while. So tired and old (both me and the A340).
Other than some financial impact in Vegas, overall the US really hasn’t been hurt by keeping these people out. National Parks had high visitation and Florida had a great year. Since as Matthew said, cases will keep rising so keeping these cheap tippers out isn’t a big deal. Why risk it?
Ah yes, Bill and Darleen driving the kids in their Durango to the National Park. That’s the tourism spend that keeps America running! Oh, and Florida had a good year! Whoo hoo!
The implications are bigger than these “cheap tippers” (btw – you must not get out much). The worthless travel ban is a significant burden to the broader economy – employees of multinational companies aren’t able to travel and valuable consulting expertise isn’t able to come to the US without huge hurdles (a German scientist can’t fly directly to the US but could spend 2 weeks in Russia or Mexico and then fly to the US? How does that make sense?!?). Moreover, these “cheap tippers” are perhaps more likely to stay in NYC or Chicago or San Francisco than visit the Great Smokey Mountains – oh, and they probably stay at nicer hotels and eat at better restaurants than Bill and Darleen’s beloved Holiday Inn Express and Cracker Barrel.
Some families stretch beyond the trailer park and – gasp – might live in other countries. I have several colleagues based in Ireland who would love to see family in the US but instead had to meet in Greece as a “neutral” spot that would be OK for both US and Irish passports. They would have greatly preferred to spend money and stay in the US but this policy just led to upwards of $10k spending in Greece.
“Ah yes, Bill and Darleen driving the kids in their Durango to the National Park. That’s the tourism spend that keeps America running! ”
Well, it apparently is, The US tourist industry is doing fine. While they’d no doubt love to have EU/UK tourists (and their money) back, they can survive on the domestic market for a good long while.
I predict our border will open when the science says it’s safe to do so. Joe Biden knows that Europeans behave worse than Republicans, so he is wise to keep them out until they get their own house in order.
Controlling the virus by “stopping it at the border” but not modifying behaviors of people who are already inside has to be the biggest fools errand of the pandemic.
A travel ban would have been effective December 2019-February 2020. At this point it’s doing absolutely nothing to reduce overall COVID cases or the introduction of new variants. The existing requirements for entry to the US are a joke. We allow non-vaccinated US citizens to travel back to the States but not vaccinated Europeans? And the negative test requirement is a joke. While I might trust a PCR test administered at a hospital, I’m comfortable saying that a rapid test given in a Greek resort town probably isn’t going to be accurate. And the fact that the tests can be taken almost 90 hours before the US bound flight departs Europe? Open the borders, allow only vaccinated travelers, and institute a 48 hour PCR test requirement – that would seem the better way to manage this.
On the one hand I have no idea what Biden is doing on this issue. It’s completely archaic as we cite the absurdities of places like Russia that are allowed access. It’s just bizarre. And I actually like the guy.
On the other hand I have to believe this is not some random vendetta or complete disregard for the EU. The only thing I can think is that he has experts and scientists telling him that they fully expect a fall surge in Europe and to open and then close weeks later will create chaos and confusion. Given the larger population base there and the overall prosperity – matched with the pent up demand waiting to come here – he may be advised that it will open the flood gates. If that timing is wrong it could then create an even bigger spike in the U.S. than we see now. Further, if the potential of millions of travelers coming from the EU and UK over a few months leads to more cases with those visiting getting Covid here it could overrun hospitals in destination heavy places like Florida or NYC.
I am not saying this is correct. But it certainly could be the consul he is getting.
I think at the least there should be a waiver for now in allowing solo business travel for EU and UK when accompanied by a letter from a U.S. company. It at least starts to get people here that are not coming only for Florida vacations etc and slowly opens the door – so as to not have a wide open flinging open of it with millions fighting to get in at once.
“On the one hand I have no idea what Biden is doing on this issue.”
Biden (and those in the White House) clearly aren’t doing a damn thing re: this, other than hoping it will go away, and wondering why Europeans are complaining about it so much. The US government simply doesn’t care about international travel, and frankly neither do most US citizens (assuming they’re even aware that there’s a ban – most probably aren’t). Until people (both the government and the people) start to care, nothing will happen.
US tourist industry??? Are you that short minded? Do you think this country runs on spending by US tourists? Multinational companies are losing business because you don’t close big contracts via Zoom. Most of deals are done face to face and with this stupid restriction many deals are not happening. The Demented in Chief only cares for his basement and forgets the world is working while the US is still hunkering down.
Not going to happen by Christmas. Sadly will be much longer
The Demented in Chief will keep all of us in the basement.
Members of the European community can make a stopover in the United States to reach Canada
Yes, somehow a dementia-laden potato got voted into office. Stupid, illogical moronic policies (like this one) followed but hey: no more mean tweets!