The airline industry has been warning the world of an upcoming pilot shortage that has finally arrived. The first casualty is Essential Air Service cities, but who’s next?
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SkyWest Airlines Discontinues 29 Routes
SkyWest, a regional carrier that flies on behalf of Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines has axed a number of routes this week. The regional airline flies more than most realize. With Delta alone, SkyWest operates more than 1,000 daily flights from major hubs like New York LaGuardia and Atlanta Hartfield International airport to communities too small to warrant larger mainline aircraft.
Due to a shortage of airline pilots, SkyWest has chosen to discontinue serving 29 cities, of which 28 have no other service. These are Essential Air Service cities for which the carrier receives a guaranteed minimum for flying those routes, usually going out with less than full cabins.
Following the airline bailout in 2020, one of the provisions was that the airlines could not stop service to these cities, however, now that carriers are outside of that period they have the option to cancel. SkyWest has served the required 90-day notice.
Pilot Shortage
Some may be asking, why is there a pilot shortage? There are three principal reasons.
Pay vs. Education Cost
Flight schools are expensive. Some have advertised program costs as low as $67,000 to achieve a commercial pilot certificate. Average costs are typically closer to $130,000. Starting out pilots do not make much money. Pilots for SkyWest could make as little as $20/hour to start and they only get paid when the aircraft door closes; about $20,000-40,000 annually.
Carrying student debt loads that high with such low pay delivers fewer applicants for flight training.
Required Hours
Following the Colgan Air crash (3407) in 2009, reforms were made to require qualified pilots to achieve 1,500 hours of commercial flight time before ascending to flying passengers. The general career path to flying for a major airline begins with building hours as a flight instructor then on to regional carriers before landing a job at a mainline.
However, accruing 1,500 flight hours is essentially also part of the cost of a commercial pilot’s license as the wages for those flights are very low.
The additional hour requirement has been a major impediment to attracting new pilots given the time and financial barriers that already exist. For what it’s worth, while the prior requirements were potentially too low at 250 hours, both pilots in the fatal crash that resulted in the rule change had well over 1,500 hours in the cockpit at 2, 244 and 3,379 hours each.
Retirement Age
The FAA imposes a limit of 65-years-old for pilots. While many remain in flying shape well after 65 and have a desire to work, they aren’t permitted to do so. Many pilots have called for an end to this, equally arbitrary, limitation. Fewer pilots have joined the ranks over the last few years because of some of the above reasons, but flying has also expanded globally thanks in large part to discount carriers. This has created a delta of not replacing pilots as they normally retire, then adding additional seats for pilots to fill.
Compounding the issue was a spate of early retirements offered by US flag carriers during the pandemic.
Possible Solutions
United, JetBlue, American, and Delta have partnered on their own pilot schools or co-opted programs to directly train new first officers. Some of these programs include tuition assistance or financing; all give a priority to graduates to move directly into the ranks of the airline. However, JetBlue’s program has been in place since 2016 and many others around the same time. That hasn’t fixed the problem but in time it may help.
Regional pilots will continue to be poached by mainline carriers who offer bigger equipment, more benefits, better pay, and more exciting destinations. Increasing the attractiveness of flying for connecting carriers will be more expensive than it is now but is necessary for their survival. Regional carriers like SkyWest will have to pass off those higher costs to mainline partners making the thinnest routes even less affordable for travelers but keeping them as a going concern.
Re-examining the mandatory retirement age with eyes to raising it would help in the interim and may even promote growth. A newly retired captain in Chicago might gladly pick up a few “lifestyle” flights that let them come home every night.
The US government will forgive student loans for teachers working in certain areas due to need after they have completed several years of service. Why couldn’t we do the same for pilots?
Lastly, the arbitrary number of 1,500 hours required to pilot a commercial airliner needs to go. While the cause of the Colgan Air crash may have been due to limited experience; if the 1,500 hour requirement were in place at the time, it wouldn’t have disqualified the pilots on that flight. Perhaps a temporary waiver would be a good stopgap to get more pilots in the sky with less than 1,500 hours.
Which Routes Are Next?
The first round of cuts is logical. If SkyWest wasn’t selling out EAS flights (likely were not) and those flights were defaulting to the minimum guarantees, then they were competing internally with more profitable routes. With the bigs running their own training operations and hiring directly therefrom, more cuts may be coming.
The next batch won’t be EAS cities in all likelihood or they would have made this list. It’s my assertion that the next routes to go will be intra-hub, especially in the Northeast corridor and west coast, specifically California, Oregon, and Washington. It will be far easier to upgrade flights between Newark and Boston for example, and consolidate by offering 1-2 fewer frequencies than to serve Dallas-Hattiesburg-Meridian, type routes.
This also creates an opportunity for ULCCs like Frontier/Spirit and Allegiant. Thrice weekly service on Frontier from Grand Island, NE to Denver (where passengers can make onward connections) or Allegiant once weekly from Sioux City, IA to Mesa, Arizona might help fill some gaps. While these won’t be regular enough to qualify for EAS service, it could still be enough to make the routes viable.
What do you think? Will the pilot shortage get worse before it gets better? Do these proposed changes seem likely to improve the situation? Is there something you’d recommend instead?
Sky West is just horrible. Compared to Republic or Endeavor, which also operate regional flights for Delta under the Delta Connection brand, Sky West has the worst aircraft, the worst maintenance, the worst operations, and the worst flight attendants. They also seem to have the lowest uniform standards as many flight attendants look like bums with shabby, threadbare uniforms. I can’t count the number of times I’ve had CRJ-200s, 700s and even 900s without functioning lavatories on flights of more than an hour, when a lavatory really becomes a necessity. Same with having potable water. Even on longer flights on the 700 or 900 in first-class with service, most Sky West’s flight attendants don’t like doing their job. I would not be surprised in the least if Sky West is doing this to extract higher subsidies from Uncle Sam. It would also be interesting to compare the congressmen and senators from the airports impacted here to see if there is a pattern.
Delta is way, way too dependent upon Sky West. The idea that Delta Connection (Sky West) earlier this year pulled out of Grand Junction and Durango in Colorado; Lincoln, Nebraska; and Cody, Wyoming is absurd.
OK to be the most powerful leader in the world at 79 (Trump or Biden) but can’t fly a plane at 65. Makes no sense forcing retirement IF they are constantly evaluated and tested. As for new pilots making $20-40k, why would anyone want to pursue that occupation?
I’m not sure Trump or Biden do much to make a case for letting people work past 65.
OK to be the most powerful leader in the world at 79 (Trump or Biden) but can’t fly a plane at 65. Makes no sense forcing retirement IF they are constantly evaluated and tested. As for new pilots making $20-40k, why would anyone want to pursue that occupation?
With less than a year before I hit the required retirement age I would be happy to continue for a few more years if the retirement age is changed. Having said that it would only buy the airlines a few more years to find a way to pave a way to the many seats that will have to be filled.
As was said that the expensive education and experience combined with the volital environment of the industry makes it a risky investment compared to other occupations. A commuter airline (Express Jet) lost its contract with United Airlines and its pilots along with all other employees were left without a job during the pandemic. For any potential young pilot looking in can be very discouraging.
The issue as well in draining many of the younger pilots away from U.S. passenger flights are Cargo companies are offering very attractive packages to young pilots with a chance to get better packages and hours on larger aircraft. As well, I imagine flying cargo to be far more interesting to a pilot than flying a regional jet in you don’t have to deal with passengers (especially these days!) and many are able to fly to fly more interesting overseas routes at a pretty junior level.
Also, while I am not sure how it is now, many regional pilots were getting recruited pre-covid to the Middle East and getting pretty lucrative packages as F/O’s at Emirates, Qatar and Etihad. That might have changed now but it’s pretty obvious that a 25 year old pilot if given the choice is gonna choose living in Dubai tax free and flying wide body jets all over the world (even with the complaints pilots have with schedules etc) over flying a CRJ-700 into Des Moines every day. Kind of a no-brainer.
I was a fighter pilot, and then an airline pilot, flying Boeing 747s and 777s for United Airlines, with more check and training, special FAA designations, and other additional supervisory qualifications than most. I retired at 65 because I concluded that the sleep deprivation and other negative physiological effects of long haul flying have been proven to be life-shortening and a significant health hazard… NOT because I was too old to fly and couldn’t pass physical checks or licence renewal check rides.
Had I been able to continue as an airline pilot, I’d have happily done so flying short haul routes, while continuing to train, check and standardise the pilots in the airline.
However, as has been noted above, people over the age of 65 hold roles as business and political leaders who continue to make decisions and laws that impact our everyday lives in significant ways, functioning effectively as chairpersons of boards of companies, and leaders of countries who can change the course of history, while leaders of the House of Representatives enable legislation (that includes mandatory airline pilot retirement age), that can have a profound effect on society and history… but I can’t fly an airliner.
It’s nonsensical and illogical. If a pilot can pass a demanding physical and complex airplane handling checks, then keep him or her in the cockpit so that those years of safe flying and thousands of hours of navigating the routes of the world aren’t lost to the industry. Many overseas airlines allow their senior, highly experienced pilots to fly (anywhere except into US airspace) as long as they wish, and the ongoing safety and performance record of those pilots is exemplary. Australia is but one example.
…And finally, if you saw the shortcomings of many of the pilots with less than the 1500 flying hours of experience noted above as the minimum required for new hires that I saw back before the Colgan crash raised that minimum, you’d agree that with the exception of pilots with a military background, that would be a limitation that it would be wise to keep, regardless of shortages of aviators.
Good comments!
Here are mine.
The major airlines are scaling back flying for the summer months because of training backlogs and pilot shortages to fill those seats to fly the flights.
There are many reasons for the pilot shortage clearly mentioned by the writer of this article.
There is an immediate fix to reduce cancellations both short term and long term:
Change the pilot retirement age beyond 65 to curtail the massive amounts of forced retirements due to an outdated law that congress imposed.
Allow pilots to choose to continue flying as long as they are medically fit and pass their required checkrides.
The traveling public, airlines and those pilots who wish to continue their flying careers all benefit.
For example United has already announced that they will park 100 aircraft due to the pilot shortage.
It is rumored that American will park numerous Aircraft for the same reason along with training backlogs. Additionally, schedule reductions are predicted.
Pilots unions should not decide retirement age, many ALPA and APA pilots want to continue flying past age 65. Again let the individual pilot choose.
Many other countries allow airline pilots to fly beyond age 65. The US should immediately change the outdated law.
For an airline pilot to retire one day at age 65 and the very next day fly in the same airspace as they did the day before they retired in a corporate jet makes no sense to an out as a result of an outdated law.
Changing the law will keep more experience in the cockpit and allow the massive hiring of multiple carriers to catch to meet the demand of the expanding public demand.
When the law was changed from 60 to 65 there were no negative effects in fact the FAA removed all restrictions.
Changing the law to allow airline pilots to fly beyond age 65 (if they choose) is a win-win for all!
I really don’t think the tank and file regular line pilot would want another increase in the retirement age. After all, the retirement age ensures there is movement to the seniority line.
I am sure many flight attendants would be in favor of a mandatory retirement age for flight attendants.
No big loss with EAS cities being dropped. when did airline service become a right? Moving to a small obscure location has it’s perks, no traffic, lower crime rates, peaceful land areas, etc. To expect all these pluses and then to expect airline service is not rational. Flying at times with less than 10 passengers is a waste of pilots, planes and fuel.
I was one of those pilots going through the pipeline around 2009-2010. I went into my flight training with lots of people getting job offers around 250 hours. I thought I’d be one of them as well. I got my CPL SEL in Nov 2010 and was looking to continue on and get my MEL and CFI the following semester (I was doing my flight training at the University of Oklahoma, mostly because my GI Bill was paying for it.) Shortly after, I received the job offer from the large aircraft manufacturing company I currently work at and I started there in April 2011. Always wanted to get back into it, but can’t afford the pay cut at this point in my career. It would take me too long to build up the required amount of hours and CFI pay is even worse than right seat pay. Plus the time it would take me to get my MEL and CFI at this point, just don’t see it happening unfortunately.
No worries, they will just introduce “flight practitioners”
Take a flight attendant, put them through 2 years of flight school (online) and give them a license to fly passengers. Flight practitioners will be cheaper to train and less expensive. One by one more and more airlines would allow these practitioners to fly without supervision of a captain.
They will be sure to include their years as a flight attendant as flying experience. What could go wrong?
As someone who was 5 hours short of a commercial cert when the Colgan crash happened, I was told to not expect to make more than $30k until I was 30 (20 at the time of the rule change). With ~$100k of student loan debt, I had to make the decision to continue the trajectory to become an airline pilot and accept financial ruin into my 50s, or take pretty much any other job and have a semblance of a middle class life. The decision was pretty clear for me. Until the arbitrary rules are relaxed, there is not a way out of this. I genuinely wonder what the straw that breaks the camels back will be, I just hope it doesn’t cause too much pain in the process.
Average Age
US Senate
64
Average Age
House
58
Different responsibilities with respect to commercial airline pilots to be sure….no question the actions of both can have a major impact on the lives of many
There’s actually 31 Essential Air Service cities that SkyWest is cutting, not 29. The first two, OGS and PBG, were anounced a few weeks ago.
There are also a number of cities that aren’t covered by Essential Air Service but have very minimal service with 50-seat regional jets, many with less service than the EAS cities. These include Binghamton NY and Twin Falls ID and are next to go. They may fill more of there seats but, along with the pilot shortage problem, the 50-seat jets are old and retiring.
The problem is clearly the 1500-hour rule which was established because of an accident where both pilots had well above 1500 hours. How did that come to be?
Massive Flight Cancellations looming for the summer months.
The major airlines are scaling back flying for the summer months because of training backlogs and pilot shortages to fill those seats to fly the flights.
There are many reasons for the pilot shortage clearly mentioned by the writer of this article.
There is an immediate fix to reduce cancellations both short term and long term:
Change the pilot retirement age beyond 65 to curtail the massive amounts of forced retirements due to an outdated law that congress imposed.
Allow pilots to choose to continue flying as long as they are medically fit and pass their required checkrides.
The traveling public, airlines and those pilots who wish to continue their flying careers all benefit.
For example United has already announced that they will park 100 aircraft due to the pilot shortage.
It is rumored that American will park numerous Aircraft for the same reason along with training backlogs. Additionally, schedule reductions are predicted.
Pilots unions should not decide retirement age, many ALPA and APA pilots want to continue flying past age 65. Again let the individual pilot choose.
Many other countries allow airline pilots to fly beyond age 65. The US should immediately change the outdated law.
For an airline pilot to retire one day at age 65 and the very next day fly in the same airspace as they did the day before they retired in a corporate jet makes no sense to an out as a result of an outdated law.
Changing the law will keep more experience in the cockpit and allow the massive hiring of multiple carriers to catch to meet the demand of the expanding public demand.
When the law was changed from 60 to 65 there were no negative effects in fact the FAA removed all restrictions.
Changing the law to allow airline pilots to fly beyond age 65 (if they choose) is a win-win for all!
What about some of the deeper rules for pilots. I know many fully functioning people in fields like fire fighting (talk about quick decisions and attentiveness) to even trade workers who wanted to be a pilot, but got scared off due to the 20/20 vision aspect. These guys have to see details. Doing research, it appears there are ways to test with a static eye condition, but generally most people probably give up at seeing 20/20. I find less and less people who don’t wear glasses/contacts.
The thing about Colgan was training not so much a hour issue. Even though you add more hours that doesn’t change the quality of training. The pilot was found to fail 3 check rides and somehow still got through the system. Funny, but maybe instead of a general hours rule there should be, just like school, you either know it or you get held back. Double sign offs on categories from 2 different groups. Firefighters do that for training 2 chiefs sign off during training and another group verifies and signs off to double check. Pass or fail. Crashes like AA into queens as the co-pilot broke the stabilizer over correcting was picked up in training. Therefore, let’s rethink the basic hours rule on a different level.
Late reply, but perhaps it’s time for the government to start funding intercity rail… perhaps such a program could be called Essential Rail Service?