Despite more partners to Asia, falling demand, and fewer business travelers, premium award space using American Airlines Aadvantage miles is mostly missing.
So Many Partners, So Few Seats
Within oneworld, American Airlines has partnerships with a number of Asian carriers: Japan Airlines, Cathay Pacific, Sri Lankan, Malaysia Airlines, Fiji Airways (joining later this year) and its North American partner, Alaska Airlines operates flights to Asia as well as subsidiary, Hawaiian Airlines. Finnair, prior to the Russia-Ukraine war, made connections in Helsinki to Asia its bread and butter operation. Qatar connects travelers via Doha (though separate awards are required) as does British Airways.
Yet recent searches for even the most basic itineraries come back empty for any saver-level business class awards not only on these many partners but also on American’s own metal. While overall load factors on American’s own flights are down about 1%, paid premium cabins across the business are up 3% year-over-year.
Still, there are more connections possible than ever before. Japan Airlines operates 28 weekly frequencies to just Hawaii alone, and Hawaiian returns the volley about the same numbers of flights per week. Outside of Hawaii, Japan Airlines operates 56 weekly flights to US cities (and more to other North American destinations) and American sends 35 weekly frequencies. Alaska just added its own flight as well as to Seoul, American holds Shanghai Pudong daily service. Cathay Pacific operates 110 weekly flights to six US destinations, four of which are considered American Airlines hubs including new service to Dallas/Fort Worth.
And then within Asia, carriers that don’t fly to the US like Malaysia Airlines, Sri Lankan, and Fiji which uses the Aadvantage loyalty program as its own ferry passengers to their final destinations. It should be relatively easy to find some options on particularly unsavory dates like July 4th, September 1st, or Thanksgiving Day – there’s nothing viable available.
Complex Itineraries Or Easy Ones
With all of these seats, even the simplest of routes, like New York (any airport) to Japan (any airport) with any number of connections for just one business class passenger yields a single saver level award (today, May 4th, 2025) through the end of November. The closest available after then doesn’t appear again until October, for one date in one direction and at 80,000 Aadvantage points, a 33% surcharge over the MilesAAver business class award price.
Cathay Pacific has been clear that it holds its business and first class redemptions for its own members predominately. But in theory, one should be able to string together a flight that travels from New York to Seattle to Seoul to Tokyo utilizing American, Alaska, and Japan Airlines space. Or from New York to Dallas/Fort Worth to Shanghai to Tokyo, etc.
Searching a number of destinations on wide calendar searches, the prices look more like Delta SkyPesos with unusably high prices.
Systematic Strategy, Issue, Or Something Else?
Is this part of a broader strategy from American Airlines? It appears to be fairly intentional. Using the award calendar view, I found dates that were lower on a total return flight basis, November 18th, returning to New York on November 26th (the day before Thanksgiving.) I paired those dates against Expert Flyer data showing how many seats are available per fare class. American Airlines lists only up to (7) available in any category even if there are more, Japan Airlines (and most others) will show up to (9) even if there are more. Here’s how the inventory looks on those dates.
American Airlines flight 167/168 from New York JFK to Tokyo-Haneda roundtrip show the maximum availability at all fare classes. Checking Chicago O’Hare and including connections, the flights remain wide open on both Japan Airlines and American, yet for award space, the roundtrip will run nearly 300,000 miles at its cheapest levels during the month, much more in other spots.
Is it possible that there’s an issue, a glitch, some technological ghost in the machine running amok? It’s possible. After all, the calendar function frequently breaks and its known that American occasionally has availability outside of those listed online.
But perhaps the easiest and most logical place to look is American Airlines availability to its sole Chinese destination, Shanghai Pudong. Operated by the Boeing 787-800 (smallest variant), the flights should be near empty at the moment given the tariff concerns and immediate and precipitous drop in trade. The cheapest days in the near future for award flights, May 30th to June 7th, confirm maximum availability in every fare class and yet the roundtrip using miles tops an eye-watering 420,500 Aadvantage miles. While the seat map isn’t reliable by itself, combined with other data, it may foretell how many seats are truly available. There are just ten assigned on this Shanghai outbound including one blocked for a pilot with 20 unassigned (or open.)
It might be a glitch if it was just one partner, but surely American’s own empty flights should come up. No, this appears to be a strategy and at these rates, based on available seats per fare class, it’s not working. But a losing strategy has never stopped American West before.
Conclusion
It’s become clear that while American is occasionally competitive to Europe, to Asia both on its own flights and the many available flights using its parter inventory, American Airlines has deployed a different strategy. If the planes were fuller, it would make sense that the carrier would charge a premium. In the instance of Cathay Pacific who has been clear about its strategy, it would make sense there too. But the least logical outcome would be that the airline is simply charging absurd award prices even on wide open flights and that appears to be the case. If this is the availability for a single passenger, imagine a couple – or dare I say, a family – trying to book an award seat in the front of the plane. When will the American West-ing end? It doesn’t appear to be any time soon.
What do you think?
Yes it’s pretty crazy what they are trying to charge. Although I just flew home on Star Lux and they intentionally left about 4 seats in J open while trying to get 175k Alaska miles for them. Does not make sense to jack up the rates that high except maybe for the last seat. First went out with only 1 seat occupied. China was packed flying though so tariffs seem to have no effect at least between China and Taipei as well as domestically within China. All the flights I flew on were full.
“ But a losing strategy has never stopped American West before”
So edgy! Sounds like a social media comment from someone trying to sound cool.
More crying about your own self interests. Here’s an idea, short AA stock if you think it’s failing. And this is a bad decision on their end.
Personally I think you are correct they are running a terrible operation. But opportunities always exist when businesses make what we think are bad decisions. Find ways to exploit it and if correct, it will pay off.
Shorting is almost always a bad strategy. “The market can be wrong longer than you have money.”
@ Dave Edwards
What a willfully ignorant response to a thoughtful post by Kyle. Kyle spoke truth, pointed out facts, and you respond like some ‘get off my lawn’ boomer trying to be relevant. Dude, YOU are the edgy one here. Take a step back, Dave, and just chill. If you can’t respond with facts and an articulate argument, go mow the lawn.
Sorry you don’t like my OPINION. I read almost everything Kyle posts being about his own self interest, He almost always mentions signing up for cards using links. I rarely see that from Matt. I get this is a means to an end for them, but Kyle is TPG, with a family and without the drug stories about him floating around.
And using the term American West is beyond stupid.
If this is a deliberate strategy, how is this actually benefitting AA?
As a guess I’d say that American can skew their perspective to see two advantages here: They don’t have to pay out notable cash to partners for business/first class redemptions and AA loyalty members won’t experience high quality premium flying and realize how much American is lacking by comparison.
The other thing I don’t understand is why American has no flights FROM Asia available online. I snagged a decent PE award on JAL from NYC to MNL earlier this spring but could not find anything on return from MNL using AA miles. I tried to broaden the search but there was nothing available except ex-Japan flights which doesn’t make sense.
You’re completely right. As you alluded to, American management – you can’t use the term leadership without laughing – still clings to the AmericaWest ULCC mentality. That works fine for a small regional airline but miserably for a huge international one.
American’s management simply don’t comprehend loyalty and the fact that as an airline that lacks advantages over the competition you have to make premium saver awards available to your engaged members in order to keep them loyal. Considering how much AA has cut back on flying to Asia and the laughable prices they charge on the flights they still operate, it’s vital for American to offer reasonable access to premium cabin saver space on partners.
To add to the pile, AA redemption is broken for Malaysia Airlines award tickets, they don’t even show up even for economy seats when other Oneworld partners like Alaska can see them.
lol. Kyle has discovered Supply & Demand
The award search tools have made it so easy to find any existing premium cabin availability that on popular routes (which includes now every OneWorld transpacific route) it simply is booked within hours if not minutes of showing up.
Blame seats.aero if anything imo
Yep, THIS.
US to China is a very special aviation market and should not be used as the basis for making any larger statements about AA’s award availability. It has been almost impossible to find award availability in business class between the US and China since the start of the pandemic (with the exception of connecting in Addis on ET) with any frequent flyer program due to the dramatic reduction in nonstop flights between the US and China. Europe to China on the other hand didn’t see as much of a capacity cut and its still feasible to find business class award tickets there.
I monitor award availability to Asia on AA regularly. It’s multiple issues, mostly due to the fact that their partner airlines are not giving up much space, and less so with any strategy on AA’s part.
Right now, JAL is hardly releasing any awards at all. Some on the Japan-US routes, but virtually none on the way back. It used to be like clockwork.
Cathay has only started releasing USA J-awards on its Asiamiles program but virtually none to its partners (save for Qantas, where you might find something from time to time).
I was just on the AA PVG-DFW flight 2 weeks ago. I booked it using 108K AA miles, with an end destination of Miami. If ending in DFW, it would have been 300K. I got it on a good day, but the prices were all over the place from 5 weeks before to 1 week before. J-cabin was 100% full 2 days before the flight, so forget about upgrades.
Airlines have not restored capacity to China, so everyone headed there is cramming onto the Tokyo and Hong Kong routes along with people going to Japan, Korea and SE Asia. It’s just slim pickin’s across the Pacific. Nothing more than that
Why are we taking a single date, that is 25 days away, with availability (which you do not really know how much availability… 7 in each class could mean nothing as a frequent flyer like yourself knows) and trying to butcher the airline?
Maybe they’re forecasting the flight will fill? Dynamic pricing is dynamic pricing.