United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby offered a wide-ranging and unusually candid look at the state of the airline industry, government dysfunction, and United’s own strategy during a fireside chat with Washington Post aviation reporter Lori Aratani at Los Angeles International Airport yesterday.
United CEO Scott Kirby Warns Of Fuel Shock, TSA Crisis, Says Rivals Will “Get Left Behind”
There was a lot to unpack, from the ongoing TSA meltdown to rising fuel costs to a surprisingly blunt assessment of competitors. Here are the most important takeaways.
1. Kirby Is Furious About The TSA Situation
Kirby did not mince words about the current TSA crisis, calling it “frankly unconscionable” that federal workers are not being paid.
He said United is doing what it can to help, from providing food to employees to even offering staff to assist with non-security functions like monitoring exit lanes.
“We all want TSA to get back to 100%…that’s my only focus,” he said.
2. ICE Agents And The National Guard Are A Stopgap, Not A Solution
Kirby acknowledged that ICE agents and even the National Guard are being deployed to help at airports, but framed it as a temporary workaround.
“Everyone is trying to help TSA,” he said, noting that these roles are limited to functions that do not require extensive training.
As usual, he went to great lengths to avoid saying anything negative about the Trump administration.
3. He Thinks A Deal Is Close
Despite the dysfunction, Kirby suggested there is real momentum behind resolving the funding impasse.
He pointed to conversations with lawmakers, including Senator Katie Britt, and said it “feels like they are close.”
Behind the scenes, he added, politicians on both sides agree the situation is “not fair” and “not right.”
4. United Is Preparing For A Massive Fuel Cost Shock
Kirby floated a scenario in which United’s fuel bill could rise by as much as $11 billion (I wrote about this last week).
This is not a worst-case scenario, he emphasized—but it is a realistic planning case.
The response? Familiar.
“Same playbook as COVID…don’t let hope be a strategy.”
That means cutting unprofitable flying if necessary, but United does not plan to pause new aircraft deliveries.
> Read More: Scott Kirby Is Making A Big Bet As Oil Spikes—Could It Finally Push United Past Delta?
5. Demand Is Still Booming
In sharp contrast to gloomy economic headlines, Kirby said demand remains “remarkably strong.”
In fact, United has already recorded its 10 best revenue weeks in company history this year.
His takeaway: the economy is stronger than many believe, and air travel remains a leading indicator.
6. Kirby Thinks Competitors Are Making The Same Mistakes Again
Kirby sounded almost incredulous recounting a recent industry conference.
“I was shocked…hearing the same things I heard in 2020,” he said, describing competitors as having their “head in the sand.”
His conclusion was blunt:
“I walked out of there thinking this is an opportunity for United. If the other guys make the same mistakes as they did six years ago, we will eat them for lunch.”
7. The Chicago Gate War Was “Pointless And Stupid”
Kirby did not hold back when discussing United’s escalating battle with American Airlines at Chicago O’Hare.
“The whole thing was ridiculous,” he said, adding that United had no choice but to respond aggressively to protect its position.
“We didn’t want to fly 750 flights…but we didn’t want to lose the gates.”
The FAA, he suggested, will “play big brother and solve it,” which marked his only veiled criticism of the current government.
8. Engines Are The Biggest Constraint On Growth
If there is one bottleneck that keeps Kirby up at night, it is engines.
He described the issue as a “decades-long problem” that could take years to fix, even if manufacturers fully commit to solving it.
United has already tried to get ahead of the issue, even buying 120 spare engines globally.
It still was not enough.
11 aircraft will be grounded this summer due to engine shortages.
9. AI Isn’t About Cutting Jobs, It’s About Better Communication
Kirby offered a more grounded take on artificial intelligence than many of his peers.
For him, the value is clarity, not automation.
He described a future where every delay is explained in detail, in real time, as if the customer had called operations directly.
One example: sending passengers weather maps instead of generic delay messages increased satisfaction scores dramatically (NPS scores rose 80 points).
“People think you’re lying if you just say ‘weather,’” he said.
His goal is simple: give customers the full story, not just the summary.
Speaking peronsally, he added, “Whatever everyone loves about AI is its ability to summarize documents and things for you. AI wants to give you the summary of the cliff notes, but I want to read the book!”
10. United Is All-In On Premium…And Not Worried About Saturation
Kirby dismissed concerns that airlines may be overbuilding premium cabins.
“We haven’t found that yet,” he said.
United is leaning heavily into premium demand, which he argues is structurally stronger than ever, especially given the airline’s hub network in major business markets.
At the same time, he emphasized that United is investing “front to back,” not just at the front of the plane.
Bonus: No Faith In ULCC Survival If Fuel Spikes
Kirby also issued a stark warning for ultra-low-cost carriers, a familiar refrain for those who listen to Kirby.
If fuel prices rise as expected, he suggested airlines like Frontier and Spirit may not survive.
I think most of us see that already (and certainly could have predicted that from Kirby’s mouth).
CONCLUSION
If there was a single theme running through Kirby’s remarks, it was this: control what you can, but invest in the future because travel demand will continue to grow over time. From fuel costs to government dysfunction to supply chain issues, Kirby’s view is that the airlines that plan ahead and act early will win.
Kirby loves for everyone to think he is the smartest person in the room – and yet on the JPM industrials conference he says that there is no elasticity so he is not afraid to raise fares as high as they need to be.
How anyone thinks they can reinvent century old understanding of price and demand and have people believe him is mind-numbing
and UA is at high risk in a high fuel environment in part because it has such a huge order book and all of those planes that Boeing is now getting around to delivering will drain UA’s cash or add debt.
Strangely, he regrets that is the same strategy he did at AA which has still not figured out how to extricate itself from its Parker/Kirby led strategies.
I’m sorry, Tim, but, get real, is Ed or Bob that much better? Coke vs. Pepsi.
Ha. Kirby is a political bellwether. Interesting there’s a bit of a wobble ( small but noticeable ) regarding the conservatives.
“Whatever everyone loves about AI is its ability to summarize documents”
Yes, and what I love about the internet is it can give me fun pictures of flying toasters!
Wow, this was an almost creepily sane interview by Kirby. Normally he’s spouting some weird madness or outright fabrications but here the most odd thing was that he claims not to have wanted the gate war he started in ORD. Much of the rest sounds somewhere between possible and – Le Gasp – sensible.
Whether you like him or not, Scott Kirby is a great gain for UA… The innovative giant airline shouldn’t lose him.
Influential phrase → “Control what you can, but invest in the future because travel demand will continue to grow over time.”
Why didn’t you ask about the long overdue contract with United’s flight attendants?
I wasn’t doing the interview, but it was addressed and he said an industry-leading deal is very close.