Exactly one year ago, Scott Kirby struck an upbeat tone in the face of economic headwinds, insisting United would not shrink or retreat. He is singing from the same hymnal again, but this time the stakes are much higher.
Scott Kirby Boldly Doubles Down As Oil Spikes: Reckless Move Or Brilliant One For United?
In a message to employees on Friday, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby acknowledged the obvious: war in Iran, surging fuel prices, and tremendous uncertainty are suddenly testing every airline. But instead of announcing a defensive crouch, Kirby is once again choosing offense.
Kirby told employees that United is prepared for this moment because it has spent years building up cash, margins, and its balance sheet. He noted that United now has about three times as much cash as it did going into COVID, ended 2025 with its highest credit rating in more than 30 years, and together with Delta represented roughly 100% of total U.S. airline profitability last year.
That is quite a flex. It is also a wager.
Kirby says United is planning for oil to rise to $175 per barrel and not fall back to $100 until the end of 2027. He says demand, at least for now, remains extraordinarily strong, with the 10 biggest booked revenue weeks in United’s history occurring over the last 10 weeks.
If that demand holds, this could be the moment Kirby has been preparing for.
United is not talking about furloughs, deferred aircraft orders, or broad cost-cutting. Kirby explicitly says the airline will continue “full speed ahead,” taking delivery of about 120 new aircraft this year, including 20 Boeing 787s, and another 130 aircraft by April 2028. He also says United will invest more in technology, airport clubs, hub infrastructure, and expansion at Newark, where he specifically referenced getting to 100 widebody departures per day.
Bold indeed…
The more prudent piece is that United is also trimming flying that cannot absorb these fuel costs right now. Kirby says the airline is canceling about three points of off-peak flying in the second and third quarters, cutting another point of capacity at Chicago O’Hare once the FAA process concludes, and pulling Tel Aviv and Dubai service, for a total of about five points of planned capacity in the short term. He says the current plan is to restore the full schedule this fall.
That is precisely what Kirby was telegraphing a year ago when he told employees United would not revert to its old playbook of shrinking, furloughing, and cutting investment when demand weakened. He argued then that a tough environment early in the “DOGE” era could actually widen United’s lead. He is making the same argument now, only with much more dramatic geopolitical circumstances and much higher fuel prices.
> Read More: United Airlines CEO Says Short-Term Pain Won’t Hinder Long-Term Gain, Hints At Major Announcement
The gamble is obvious.
If oil stays elevated for a prolonged period and demand softens, Kirby could look reckless. It is one thing to keep investing when your competitors are wounded. It is another thing to keep spending aggressively if your own revenue base starts to wobble and premium demand finally cracks.
But if fuel stabilizes and demand remains steady, Kirby could be setting United up for a major leap forward.
He all but says so in his note. Kirby told employees that if United is right and oil stays higher for longer, the airline will be first on decisions that others will be forced to follow, and that the industry stress could create opportunities “to buy assets, absorb network changes, etc.” (ahem, JetBlue) He also mocked peers whose strategy he summarized as some version of “hope is our strategy.”
“I listened to most of our competitors at the J.P. Morgan conference this week and many said some version of “hope is our strategy.” It’s possible they’re right and that the war ends quickly. But if it doesn’t, this will be our opportunity down the road to buy assets, absorb network changes, etc.”
That is classic Kirby: candid, combative, and very willing to frame a crisis as a competitive opportunity.
Delta, of course, remains the benchmark. But if Kirby is right, if United can keep its nerve while rivals retreat, and if oil eventually cools without a broader demand collapse, this could be the sort of inflection point that helps United move past Delta in both perception and performance.
That is a big “if.”
CONCLUSION
One year ago, Kirby told employees that short-term pain would not derail United’s long-term plan. He is making the same case again, only now with a real war, a real fuel shock, and a much bigger test of his theory.
I think this is a bold move. It could backfire badly if oil remains high and demand finally weakens in a meaningful way. But if oil stabilizes and demand remains resilient, Kirby may look prescient again. And if that happens, United will not merely weather this period. It may use it to widen the gap over weaker competitors and perhaps even catapult past Delta.
That is clearly what Kirby is betting on…
image: United
Within 3-6 weeks the US (and then ultimately a multi-national force of interested parties) will control the Hormuz strait for the foreseeable future. That always was, and remains, the purpose of the war. Oil is not going to $175 for any meaningful duration. Doesn’t mean jetBlue won’t fail and get split among DL, UA, AA and AS in some fashion, though.