Record holiday demand meets a federal shutdown. Here is why Thanksgiving week could be a mess, and what changes if Washington flips the switch in time.
A Perfect Storm For America’s Busiest Travel Week
Thanksgiving is not a normal travel period. It is the week when the largest air market in the world sprints home at the same time, then sprints back again. While not everyone travels, almost every American celebrates Thanksgiving. Airlines flex every spare aircraft. Highways fill past the point of reason. Last year AAA projected nearly 80 million travelers over the broader Thanksgiving window, a figure that topped the pre-pandemic record. Even if this year softens a touch, we are still staring at one of the largest movements of people in the US calendar.
Layer on a federal government shutdown that began October 1 and is still rolling. The Congressional Budget Office pegs the economic hit in the billions if the stalemate lingers into mid or late November. That is not abstract. It means unpaid federal safety and security workers, paused training, and a system that has less slack exactly when it needs the most.
What The Numbers Say Right Now
TSA’s daily checkpoint counts show fall traffic running near last year’s pace. That matters because checkpoint throughput is a solid near-real-time proxy for passenger demand. In late October, TSA screened roughly two million travelers per day, tracking very close to 2024 levels. If that trend holds into late November, air travel demand will be comparable to last year’s record holiday. Translation: even a small operational wobble can create very visible pain.
Aviation already entered this shutdown with a staffing deficit. The FAA met its 2025 hiring goal of about 2,000 new controllers, but the agency still estimates a shortfall on the order of several thousand. Mandatory overtime and thin margins leave little room for sick calls or training pauses. During the 2018–2019 shutdown, TSA sick-outs reached about 10 percent and airports felt it. That history is the backdrop for Thanksgiving 2025.
But there’s still time for a special Thanksgiving.
Airline Leaders Are Ringing The Alarm
Airline CEOs met at the White House this week with Vice President J.D. Vance and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, urging a quick end to the shutdown. Airlines for America publicly pushed for a “clean CR” to get pay flowing to controllers, TSA, and CBP before the holidays. You do not need to read between the lines. When the people who run the schedule call it a looming disaster, believe them. Matthew had more on this with a specific focus on United and Scott Kirby.
Four Timelines, Four Very Different Thanksgivings
Every day there is hope that one way or another the government re-opens. The longer it lingers, the worse it gets. Here’s some thoughts as to what happens if the government re-opens at different windows prior to the busy holiday travel period, or if it doesn’t at all.
If Washington Reopens Right Away
An immediate deal gives agencies a little runway. Controllers, TSA officers, and CBP agents get paid again. Training and overtime approvals restart. Some damage is already done to morale and schedules, but staffing should stabilize before the peak surge. Expect longer lines than usual at major hubs, rolling delays during the busiest bank times, and a system that mostly holds together. Think: uncomfortable rather than catastrophic.
If Washington Reopens Two Weeks Before Thanksgiving
Two weeks is tight but workable. Pay resumes, yet it takes time to unwind leave swaps and second jobs that workers picked up to cover missed checks. The FAA can re-sequence training, though the backlog does not vanish overnight. Expect elevated wait times, more ground delay programs at congested airports, and higher misconnect risk during the Tuesday and Wednesday push. Airlines will pad schedules where they can, but buffers are thin this late.
If Washington Reopens One Week Before Thanksgiving
One week is triage. Agencies will call all hands, but predictable sick leave, burnout, and scheduling whiplash will bite. Security lines at peak hours will swing widely. Weather becomes a force multiplier. A standard November weather event, even a small one, can trigger outsized delays because there is not enough staffing slack to recover quickly. Plan for earlier arrivals at the airport and fewer rebooking options if your flight misconnects.
If Washington Does Not Reopen Before Travel Starts
This is the worst case. Unpaid critical workers try to hold the line, but absenteeism rises. TSA and CBP reassign where possible, which means some checkpoints and lanes operate part-time. The FAA leans on flow control and ground delay programs more often because controller staffing is stretched and training is paused. Expect sustained delays and sporadic cancellations during the Tuesday outbound and Sunday return peaks, with ripple effects into Monday. The history from 2019 is clear on how quickly absenteeism can spike when checks do not arrive.
The Quiet Demand Story: People Reconsider Plans
Not everyone is hitting pause because of fares or schedules. Some travelers are federal employees who have missed paychecks and are cutting discretionary trips. Others are private-sector workers nervous about a choppy fourth quarter. Then there is the psychology of crowds. If you think the airport will be a nightmare, you are more likely to punt to Christmas or stay local. Softening in demand does not eliminate congestion. It only dulls the tip of the spear while the system fights upstream constraints. Recent reporting on the shutdown’s growing footprint supports the idea that households are pulling back at the margins.
Why The CEOs Are Right About A Clean CR
I am not interested in assigning blue or red jerseys here – there’s plenty of hot air on both sides of this issue. I am interested in whether the system that moves the country on its busiest week has the resources to function safely and reliably. Airline leaders are asking for a clean continuing resolution because it restores pay and authority fast, without side conditions that produce another stalemate. The White House meeting, and the trade group statement that followed, make the industry’s ask plain. Pay the people who keep the airspace safe, then argue the policy details after the holiday crush.
While it might not have been the most independent position to make statements from the White House lawn with Republican lawmakers flanking both sides, and using the Republican talking points, it doesn’t change that the bill in question to re-open the government is the same as the one passed earlier this year and drafted by congress under the prior administration.
CEOs from United, Delta, and American have all made statements supporting the Clean Continuing Resolution, but this is also out of self-interest too. If the government re-opens now and travel is smooth for Thanksgiving, earnings stay on track as does travel. But if it doesn’t re-open they will all experience lower sales, higher costs, and greater uncertainty. Re-opening solves most of that even if they disagree with the politics behind either side of the issue.
A November To Remember
The Thanksgiving holiday is period is more than pumpkin pie and stuffing. It’s the perfect time for many families who don’t see each often throughout the year, a chance to get together. This time of year also kicks of the busy holiday season with the Rockefeller Christmas tree lighting in New York City taking place the following week. Many Christmas markets open around this time too (we love the markets.) Restaurants and shops are counting on travelers throughout the United States traveling too. Whether the government is open or closed, the annual Thanksgiving Day parades will still take place, but if travelers are stuck at home instead of with loved ones elsewhere, it won’t be the same.
Conclusion
Thanksgiving 2025 is set up to be huge again, and the federal shutdown is the wrong variable at the wrong time. If Washington flips the lights back on immediately, the system bends but mostly holds. Two weeks out is survivable with bruises. One week out is a scramble. No deal by travel week, and travelers will see persistent lines, rolling delays, and very cranky turkeys. The airline CEOs are not crying wolf. They are reading the tea leaves that say the fastest fix is a clean CR that pays the people who keep the sky moving. Reopen now, then fight about policy after the last slice of pie.
What do you think?
There isn’t hot air on both sides only one side doesn’t want the status quo and is holding everyone hostage.
No, Republicans fled from Congress for the past four weeks… if anyone’s holding Americans hostage, it’s Trump by refusing to negotiate, while taking away Americans healthcare as he gives Argentina $40 billion and builds a new Versailles for himself.
Your excuses don’t matter. One party controls all branches of government right now.
Amen.
Exactly. The Democrats passed the “Affordable” Care Act. The premiums became unaffordable, so they passed huge government subsidies. Then, covid hit, and they added a temporary boost to give more people access to the subsidies. They also had the covid subsidies expire the end of this year. Now, they are demanding they be extended when they created the expiration!
And by the way, any guess what is driving the extraordinary costs? Yeah, same thing as college costs. If the government guarantees payments at any price, the prices go up.
Healthcare is broken in this country. It’s time for Meidcare for all…
You want a government who can’t even manage it’s own affairs, who has a single digit approval rating, to fully manage our healthcare? Yeah the system is broken. That’s not the solution.
I deal with Medicare all day long…it works and is about the best compromise we have to taking profit out of heathcare.
Well said, Matt. This is the way. Healthcare is a human right. Medicare for All is the solution.
I suspected but never was sure Matt was on the government dole. Thanks for confirming it and total respect for managing your finances in a way that LEGALLY allows you to qualify.
It’s the flaw in the system, just like Obamacare and SNAP, they are not based on net wealth, only income which isn’t hard to adjust. I personally know more than a few worth $3-5 million or more in assets but on Obamacare because it makes financial sense.
Total respect for flying around the world LEGALLY on the taxpayers dime.
When I say I deal with Medicare all day, it is not for me…
There needs to be a true physical filibuster. Debate the issues on the Senate floor. All Senators debate and negotiate 24/7, with only brief, timed bathroom breaks. Free coffee provided and pizza delivery.
Filibuster isn’t the issue here; current rules say 60 votes to pass legislation; Republicans’ bill doesn’t have the votes; maybe they should present a bill that can get at least 60 votes; probably would involve negotiating in-good-faith, but they… ‘don’t wanna’ (like a toddler.)
Really hope the ‘mess’ can be avoided; not only because many of us are traveling then, but because ATC, FAA, TSA, and others deserve to be paid, and also because Americans need healthcare. I still support the Democrats efforts to fight for that cause; I wish Republicans would actually negotiate in-good-faith with them to re-add those ACA subsidies, so that tens of millions of Americans won’t lose coverage.
If wishes were fishes you’d be drowning. Typical liberal nonsense over and over.
Biggest troll to show up here in years, and that’s saying A LOT here.
Definitely a Schumer cuck.
Alright, I’ll bite. What is your (or the Republicans) plan for healthcare?
*crickets*
Right now because of the shutdown iah security linesb are at 4 to 5 hours because they are only running 2 checkpoints
BS, not even close.
Don’t forget. All this fighting is over a circa 40 day Continuing Resolution, temporary funding. They are not fighting over funding for the rest of the fiscal year. So we’ll be right back in this again when whatever CR they pass is about to expire.
If that’s the case, it sounds like Republicans should actually negotiate in-good-faith with Democrats, so that they can pass a bipartisan budget and not do this 40-day dance again-and-again, no? (Or, do you just want more chaos?)
I can’t remember the last time the federal government had a fully funded budget on October 1, for a full fiscal year. It’s always a series of Continuing Resolutions (CR), kicking the can down the road a few times.
The last time the U.S. federal government had a fully funded budget (meaning all 12 regular appropriations bills were enacted) by October 1st for the entire fiscal year was in 1997, 1995, 1989, and 1977.
Apparently, our elected officials were able to work together back then. FY 1997, Sept 1996, President Democrat (Clinton), Senate Republican, House Republican, Divided. FY 1995, Sept 1994, President Democrat (Clinton), Senate Democrat, House Democrat, Unified. FY 1989, Sept 1988, President Republican (Reagan), Senate Democrat, House Democrat, Divided. FY 1977, Sept 1976, President Republican (Ford), Senate Democrat, House Democrat, Divided.
Unified governments are rare; divided government is more common. The solution is compromise well-in-advance of the deadline. Properly and timely funding promotes greater stability, certainty, and efficiency, which are all things that CRs and shutdowns undermine. We, the people, deserve better.
I got you, David.
The last time the U.S. federal government had a fully funded budget (meaning all 12 regular appropriations bills were enacted) by October 1st for the entire fiscal year was in 1997, 1995, 1989, and 1977.
Apparently, our elected officials were able to work together back then. FY 1997, Sept 1996, President Democrat (Clinton), Senate Republican, House Republican, Divided. FY 1995, Sept 1994, President Democrat (Clinton), Senate Democrat, House Democrat, Unified. FY 1989, Sept 1988, President Republican (Reagan), Senate Democrat, House Democrat, Divided. FY 1977, Sept 1976, President Republican (Ford), Senate Democrat, House Democrat, Divided.
Unified governments are rare; divided government is more common. The solution is compromise well-in-advance of the deadline. Properly and timely funding promotes greater stability, certainty, and efficiency, which are all things that CRs and shutdowns undermine. We, the people, deserve better. So, both parties really should get together, negotiate in good faith, and vote on a bi-partisan bill, as soon as possible.
Not sure why these got duplicated, Matt. You’re welcome to keep ’em both, or remove one. Doesn’t matter to me.
Chaos in Trumpton, who would ever have foreseen that.
At least you all knew what you were voting for.
As of today, November 5, 2025, this is officially the longest government shutdown in history.
Just a reminder, from our President, what he thinks:
“Problems start from the top, and they have to get solved from the top, and the president’s the leader.”
“When they talk about the government shutdown, they’re going to be talking about the president of the United States, who the president was at that time.”
He argued the president “has to get everybody in a room, and he’s got to lead,” and that the president “has failed to lead!”
“You have to get everybody in a room. You have to be a leader. The president has to lead. He has to get (the Speaker of the House) and everybody else in a room, and they have to make a deal.”
There really is a Trump Tweet for every occasion. He’s a hypocrite, a crook, and a failure.