While climate modeling predicted many islands would disappear as sea levels rose, scientists have made a surprising discovery in island nations like the Maldives: while there is some erosion, there is remarkable stability and even growth. That bodes well for some of the most pristine travel destinations in the world while still representing a challenge to future generations.
The Erosion Of Conventional Wisdom: Scientists Make A Surprising Discovery In The Maldives
Let’s start with a disclaimer here. I am not a “climate denier” and the point of this post is not to undermine the very serious potential threat that climate change may pose in the years to come to civilizations around the world. Rather, it is a cautionary note for the evangelical climate alarmists who prophecized doom and destruction by this point in our history. It’s also an opportunity for all of us to look at the issue a little differently.
For me, it goes back to a substitute teacher I had in high school (in German class, of all places) who was a Green Peace activist and who spent the hour literally scaring the heck out of us that if we did not elect Al Gore in 2000, the world would be destroyed in a decade (Gore went on to make An Inconvenient Truth in 2006 and later claimed that the Arctic Sea would no longer have ice by 2013…it still does today in 2024). I still remember that day.
Over the weekend, the New York Times ran a fascinating piece titled, The Vanishing Islands That Failed to Vanish. The article’s point is that “low-lying tropical island nations were expected to be early victims of rising seas. But research tells a surprising story: Many islands are stable. Some have even grown.”
The seas had risen an inch or so each decade, yet the waves had kept piling sediment on the islands’ shores, enough to mean that most of them hadn’t changed much in size. Their position on the reef might have shifted. Their shape might be different. Whatever was going on, it clearly wasn’t as simple as oceans rise, islands wash away…
The patterns they’ve uncovered in recent years are remarkably consistent across the 1,000 or so islands they’ve studied: Some shrank, others grew. Many, however, were stable. These studies have also added to the intrigue by revealing another pattern: Islands in ocean regions where sea level rise is fastest generally haven’t eroded more than those elsewhere.
At the disastrous presidential debate last week between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, both were asked about climate change and both gave quite unsatisfactory answers. My conviction has always been that climate change should be seen as a great opportunity, not merely a threat. It represents an opportunity to innovate and a problem that the world can come together to address.
The idea that we are going to dramatically reduce our energy consumption in an effort to cut greenhouse gases is a canard. I see no evidence people are willing to do that and the developing world in places like India and China will greatly increase carbon output in the years ahead as those economies grow.
What I would have liked to hear from either man is that the changing climate allows us to invest in technology like carbon capture or desalination that can create jobs, solve problems (like water shortages), and help the US and other nations to cope with what might be more violent shifts in weather and temperature. If I was on stage, I would have said, “A nation that put men on the moon is a nation that can rise to this challenge to turn adversity into innovation and lead the world in research and development to address this unfolding issue of our time.”
But what about the future of the Maldives? And others?
Among scientists who study islands and coasts, the most common advice for dealing with sea level rise can sound a lot like doing nothing. Coexistence, to use Dr. Kench’s word, means accepting that the mighty ocean will do what it will and learning to live with it. It means planning smartly around the water rather than trying to keep it away with expensive engineering projects, which carry their own complicated suite of environmental side effects…
If the atolls’ near future is written in their recent past, then we can foretell it: Some islands will shrink, others will grow. Many will be stable. But which of these places people will actually want to call home is the harder question, a question that every country confronts in one form or another, a question as eternal as the tides.
Like many things in life, I think there is wisdom in preparing for “worst-case scenarios “even if they do not materialize. We should be thinking about that as travelers, citizens, and human beings.
CONCLUSION
Observations show a surprising trend: many islands are not disappearing due to rising sea levels, as feared. Some are even growing and many more are remarkably stable.
The answer is not to simply dismiss climate change. I’m also not going to superficially point to scientists who warned of a new ice age in the 1970s to dismiss the scientists today who warn that islands will still disappear in the years to come.
I don’t care to argue whether climate change is real or even whether we should ignore it. Rather, due diligence calls upon us to take it seriously while also carefully considering the cost/benefit analysis of policies and programs that seek to address it.
But as the Maldives shows, the more we learn, the more complex this matter really is and we better realize that we must approach this issue with an open mind if we are going to deal with it in the best way we can.
As a traveler who loves this beautiful earth and the nations that make it up, I am confident that we can address the changing world in a way that helps humanity to flourish.
image: Waldorf Maldives
Climate denialist. Go back to your MAGA convicted felon rally, racist.
The fact that we are ignoring your trolling doesn’t make us “troll deniers”, it just means we aren’t interested in feeding you…
You just did my friend.
Matt is payin dem bills this month.
Informative and fascinating read.
Though the information used to write the NYT story is an interesting and meaningful addition to the collective scientific knowledge regarding the consequences of rising sea level, it does not really predict the future well enough. This addition of land mass to some islands, though it is a good thing, may not continue. All we know so far is that the sea level is rising, and the rate of rise has been accelerating so far. We don’t know what would happen to all of the islands, both big and small, in the future. All we can say with confidence are our current observations. Regardless of all of this, we have already seen the devastating effects of irresponsible human activities on this earth, so what we need to do is to really think about what kind of changes we need to make before it is not too late.
Get a clue.
https://youtu.be/oYhCQv5tNsQ?si=ujn9PKYOChK9724I
Notice how all US presidents have beach front property. Sea rise is a lie.
@steve … +1 . Spot on . And the politicians all become very rich … isn’t that a surprising coincidence ?
Anyone who bought into that BS about sea level rise only needs to compare pictures of Fort Denison to day to those of hundreds of years ago.
Anyone who bought into that BS about sea level rise only needs to compare pictures of Fort Denison today to those of hundreds of years ago.
I’m actually looking foreword to global warming and hope that the process speeds up. The amount of people who die of cold weather is much higher than hot weather…
https://ourworldindata.org/part-one-how-many-people-die-from-extreme-temperatures-and-how-could-this-change-in-the-future#:~:text=A%20large%20global%20study%20by,heat%2Drelated%20deaths%20each%20year.
“What’s consistent in these studies is that cold-related deaths vastly outnumber those from heat.
In the Global Burden of Disease study, cold-related deaths were around four times higher than heat-related ones.
The study that estimates that 7.7% of deaths were attributed to temperature found that 7.3% were from cold temperatures; 0.4% were from heat.”
…
“Globally, cold deaths are 9 times higher than heat-related ones. In no region is this ratio less than 3, and in many, it’s over 10 times higher. Cold is more deadly than heat, even in the hottest parts of the world.”
Lets push more carbons!!!
That is good news about the Maldives. That will allow them to focus on their official policy of keeping Jews out of the country.
Oy.
“You see?” they said. “He’s just rebuilding the normal armed forces that every country has. The Hitler alarmists are just trying to scare everybody.”
“You see?” they said. “He’s just re-occupying the Rhineland. That’s part of Germany. True, he is violating the Versailles treaty, but it’s been almost twenty years since then. The Hitler alarmists are just trying to scare everybody.”
“You see?” they said. “He merely took over Austria. The Austrian people want to be part of Germany. The Hitler alarmists are just trying to scare everybody.”
“You see?” they said. “Occupying the Sudetenland is an entirely reasonable action. The population is mostly German anyway. The Versailles treaty should never have assigned the Sudetenland to Czechoslovakia. The Hitler alarmists are just trying to scare everybody.”
“You see?” they said. “He merely took over Austria. The Austrian people want to be part of Germany. The Hitler alarmists are just trying to scare everybody.”
Sea level has risen only four inches in the last 30 years. They are predicted to rise by another 18 inches if we continue reducing CO2 emissions at our current rate. If we continue down the path Mr. Trump wants, they will rise by about 5 feet by then.
Hitler would have been a climate alarmist. Climate change ideology is based on Nazi Israel. Ever hear of eco-fash?
Apologies to all for the double-entry about Austria; it was a copy-past typo that I didn’t notice until too late to correct.
It’s okay…I approved it.
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As always, the more space you devote to the truth, the closer you get to the real truth, which is always infinitely complicated. Here’s a longer and more technical article showing how sea level rise has already destroyed five small islands while not affecting some others:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sea-level-rise-swallows-5-whole-pacific-islands/
Here’s a Venice-like island in the Caribbean that the government of Panama is evacuating because of rising sea levels:
https://www.voanews.com/a/panama-prepares-to-evacuate-first-island-in-face-of-rising-sea-levels/7638950.html
And, of course, there’s always Venice: https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/venice/solutions.html
Do you have a source for Al Gore saying in an Inconvenient Truth that the Arctic would be ice-free by 2013 that isn’t some random meme you found on Facebook?
Because if you actually search the transcripts of the movie that are available online, what he actually said about the Arctic ice cap was:
“there are now two major studies showing that within the next 50 to 70 years, in summertime it will be completely gone.”
He made that statement at COP 15 in 2009…and did have to walk it back.
Your teacher in 2000 scared the heck out of you. Mine in 1973 second grade scared the heck out of me with similar concerns. I still remember the drawings in the textbook. After a lifetime of …ten years from now… predictions, I’m no longer arrogant enough to think that I can control the universe. I’m glad islands aren’t vanishing, but it never made any sense that they would.
Cherry picking.
We have the earliest Class 5 hurricane ever recorded. Miami has been flooded repeatedly the past months with storms considered “once in a hundred years.” But, umm, it’s happened three times in months? Planes are experiencing more clear air turbulence than ever before. And the recent report on the sea level at, of all places, Mar Oh my god, Lago. I dunno, do I need to go on? Anyone who can’t see the changes is clearly oblivious or blinded by MAGA.
Let’s not kill the messenger, Al Gore. He saw the threat, so what if he was a bit early in his predictions. It does not in any way discount the reality facing many future generations.
All the predictions have been wrong.
The most wrong will be that Biden will the election. He can’t steal this one.
Climate change is a lie.
A scientific paper published last year showed that the sea levels have been rising at a nearly constant rate since 1840 (when CO2 levels were much lower than today) and the rate wasnslowing. If CO2 was the culprit, the rate of sea level rise should have been acelerating over the last 190 years. It seems there are other factors that are causing the sea level rise.
Can you post a link to that study, please.