Donald Trump’s victory last night took many by surprise. The return of President Trump to the White House will directly impact airline regulations and mergers. Here are my predictions.
What Donald Trump’s Victory Means For Airlines And Passengers
The return of the Trump Administration will likely usher in a more hands-off approach to regulation that will impact both passenger protections and mergers.
Northeast Alliance Between American Airlines + JetBlue Will Return
American Airlines is already exploring a fresh alliance with JetBlue and I expect we will see a full return of the Northeast Alliance with very little pushback from US regulators. After failing to find a merger partner, JetBlue will again work closely with American Airlines in a bid to complement some of its routes from Boston (BOS) and New York (both LGA and JFK) as well as in Florida. We should also see a return to reciprocal frequent flyer benefits.
Spirit + Frontier Will Merge
I’m not sure a Harris Administration would have blocked this, but a Trump Justice Department will not oppose a merger between Spirit and Frontier, the nation’s two leading discount carriers. Both carriers have struggled in the post-pandemic world as network carriers have become far more adept at pricing their own tickets to better compete. Consumers have also wised up to the business model and are spending less money on ancillary items like baggage, a critical component of the business model.
JetBlue Will Try For Another Merger
Even as the Northeast Alliance between JetBlue and American Airlines will return in the interim, I would not be surprised to see JetBlue and Alaska Airlines attempt to merge. That’s another post for another day, but if JetBlue and Alaska did try to merger, I am not certain it would face any pushback from the Trump Administration.
Consumer Protections Will Not Be Enforced
Under Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, the US has introduced new safeguards for travelers, including automatic refunds during delays or cancellations and stringent guidelines or airlines to offer meal and hotel vouchers during delays. While I don’t expect those rules will vanish on Day One, I predict they will be weakened through non-enforcement and ultimately abandoned altogether as too “burdensome” for carriers serving US soil.
Loyalty Inquiry Will Be Dropped
Buttigieg is also looking into the transparency of frequent flyer programs and whether airlines offer what amounts to a bait and switch when it comes to promising free flights or other perks in exchange for loyalty and credit card spending, then failing to deliver. I expect that inquiry is now over. I also expect Dick Durban’s (D – IL) Credit Card Competition Act of 2023 is dead.
CONCLUSION
Trump’s victory will lead to new leadership at the Department of Justice and Department of Transportation that is more likely to abandon Biden-era restrictions on cooperation and compensation. The result for US consumers may be mixed: fewer consumer protections but an industry that can better align to market headwinds through cooperation.
image: screengrab / Trump campaign
Camel-a is in a hideout with her illegal alien Venezuelan gang friends drinking cheap-o wine .
They are reassuring her that she is not the most moron amongst their group . She is such a moron that she believes them ,
Can we please be charitable today? Even Trump was in his victory speech. No need to cut down Harris, especially when it seems clear many voted against her simply because she was a woman.
@Matthew … This was satire . If I had been serious , I would have described her correctly as preposterous or ludicrous .
I respectfully disagree with your statement that “many voted against her because she was a woman” . That is merely her lame excuse , because in fact many many many women voted against her because of her mad policies .
+1
I am sorry Matthew, but people voted against her because she is incompetent and was absolutely unqualified to be president. She ran a campaign with zero policies but a tiring approach of criticizing her opponent instead of showing anything good about her. Also, there is no gender or racial discrimination on the results. It was a landslide including the popular vote. This time the Democrats have no excuse other than their incompetence. They tried to silence millions of Americans for 4 years and that people spoke yesterday.
#nailedit
Yeah, her being a woman of color wasn’t a turn off for some people. At all.
BTW, although she has the genetics that can call her black, her skin is whiter than mine and I am not considered black but Hispanic. Oprah or Michelle Obama would be a better choice if this was about electing a black woman with black skin. She was a DEI option that did not deliver.
And since you like to bring her color into the discussion, see how people of color voted for her comparing to Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. People of color did not support her the same way they supported other Democrat candidates that were white. Does that tell you something? It was never about her color or being a woman, it was because she was incompetent and chose to attack her opponent and his supporters rather than tell people why they should vote for her. And don’t forget she chose a clown to be her VP. That counts as well.
Voters of color, college degree
2016 – Clinton: +50%
2020 – Biden: +43%
2024 – Harris: +35%
Voters of color, no degree
2016 – Clinton: +56%
2020 – Biden: +46%
2024 – Harris: +32%
Yeah it was but mostly to democrats especially Hispanics and black men….
What policies did Trump run with pray tell?
That’s an incredibly ignorant statement, Matthew.
There are plenty of women I’d vote for before Harris.
I would vote for someone like Tulsi Gabbard before I’d vote for many male Democrats.
Harris was an awful candidate in 2019 when she ran for the WH and was still that same terrible candidate in this election cycle.
She also ran a terrible campaign when she decided to call her opponents supporters Nazis.
@JH … +1 . Yes , I am a “deplorable” and “garbage” , according to Camel-a .
But, Alert, you are deplorable garbage. Embrace it and join your fellow MAGA Morons.
Down with Mango Mussolini. Down with Hillbilly Bear. To the lampposts.
@JH: +1. I was not expecting a sore loser comment like this one from Matthew. This is a typical example of how Democrats behave. They blame their incompetence on others. Time to admit hey are far from perfect.
@Santastico … Camel-a reading the New York Times (about how the race is ‘neck-and-neck’) , is akin to the Mad Hatter reading Mad Magazine .
Oh please, nothing screams “sore loser” like still claiming your loss was due to an election being stolen.
Your comment that many Americans voted against her because she is a woman is total BS.
Many Americans would vote for a smart capable woman for president, including myself. The problem is that anyone who has been paying attention voted against her because she was an insufferable moron. In the few appearances that she was forced to make, she had the opportunity to differentiate herself from her current administration, She stated that she couldn’t think of anything she would do differently (as Americans were growing more anxious about the economy), she couldn’t string two coherent sentences together and had the personality similar to Hillary Clinton.
That may be…I’m not making final pronouncements, just curious about the gender gap in the vote.
The problem we have is, in recent elections, men have gone more red and woman have gone more blue even with candidates of the same sex. So, how do we tell? Ask people who have an incentive to lie?
There are Trump voters who would have voted for a “male Harris.” There are Harris voters who wouldn’t have voted for a “male Harris.” Both are sexists.
People might admit they voted for (because she was) a woman, since it is considered OK by many, most (unless trolling) won’t admit voting against (because she was) a woman.
@Kevin: +1. It is so interesting to see comments like Matthew’s which are based on emotion vs facts. Funny that I voted for several woman yesterday including Senate, House, School District, Judge, etc… I mentioned here before, I never vote on a person but on the person’s policies and beliefs. Harris never showed me any polices and her beliefs were very different than mine.
No Santastico, don’t reduce my comment to that.
Why was it that Black and Latino men broke for Trump this time? You think it had nothing at all to do with her being a woman?
I think more exit polling will help answer the question. It’s just a hunch….and I’m not condemning anyone…obviously there was a lot of anger that Harris failed to adequately address.
Matthew,
Don’t forget “Black” as in, “They voted against the hyena because she’s Black”….might as well go there too since that’s where you’re headed.
Folks, I urge you to delay your trips for a few days to leave ample airline availability to accommodate those who will be making good on their threat to leave the country.
I don’t think that was it – because you saw black and brown men breaking for Trump, particularly under 30.
I’m only reflecting on the data emerging, not making condemnations (yet).
@Matthew … Respectfully , I’ll pass on the “data” . Every time the Media concocted a fake story about The Donald , and every time the New York courts prosecuted Bills of Attainder against The Donald , and every time the “celebrities” or “influencers” called The Donald vile names , the ordinary Yanks in Kentucky and Texas felt compelled to spit .
I think both your point and my point can be true…
The way conservatives were leaving the country in 2020?
Harris won. The election was rigged. If she is in the White House, groceries will get cheaper, rich would pay their fair share, everyone would have an EV, DYKWIA frequent flyer elites would be punished, and the Supreme Court would be enlarged.
@derek: I hear Cuba is offering asylum to American Liberals that are melting down.
@Santastico … The tearful “celebrities” and “influencers” will move to Zimbabwe or Turkey .
….or the open and tolerant Gaza Strip. They tell me it’s nice there this time of year.
True. There was fraud by the Repugnant MAGA crowd before the election in Georgia by stacking the local election boards and in North Carolina by spreading lies about FEMA. There was fraud in Wisconsin as well; the great Tammy Baldwin should not be caught in a tight race with Hovde the rich neo-fascist. But we’re not gonna march on the Capitol because, unlike MAGA Morons, we are civilized human beings, not trailer trash with missing teeth and missing high school diplomas.
You want to talk about fraud?
How did Kamala get 15 MILLION less votes than Joe Biden did in 2020?
You mean to tell me that 15 MILLION Democrats stayed home yesterday?
15 MILLION?
You all proved how peaceful you were during the BLM riots!!
I’m an old white guy and a liberal/moderate Democrat. I didn’t take part in BLM riots. But I will take part in a civil war because then it’ll be legal to kill rednecks and Repugnants.
Your coping, seething and malding is glorious
First congratulations to Trump’s supporters. Said with sincerity and grace.
Airlines will love the new administration; their customers not so much. Meltdowns will happen and I hope the traveling public will not be ignored.
Unlikely you will receive the same in return.
Thank you , Maryland . You are good .
I agree Frontier will kills off Spirit Airlines.
JetBlue will be bought by someone else.
Southwest has new influencers leading its BOD.
With a Pro Merger DOJ in 2025 this will open up a merger opportunity for Southwest to diversify its operations as they user into a new EML model.
JetBlue brings the biggest market share opportunities that they currently Lack. WN don’t really overlap all that much and by buying JetBlue it would propel them into a better position in key markets like BOSTON, JFK(NYC),South Florida and The Caribbean. WN domestic dominance would funnel a huge increase of passenger traffic into JetBlues Europe network to make it profitable.
If WN doesn’t make a play for JetBlue I see Breeze becoming a part of JetBlue and David Needleman returning to JetBlue as CEO while Marty remains as president with Azul becoming a South American sister company.
Jetblue would be more valuable if the asset be sold off in pieces.
Women of childbearing age will need a note from an OBGYN and permission from their fathers, brothers or husbands to get on a plane at all. On-site TSA pregnancy tests will add a lot of hassle to travel.
And then there are safety measures, aka commie government overreach. So much for all that.
Which country will you be fleeing to?
Might I suggest Iran?
No need to flee, the US will be the Christian version of Iran in a few years.
@Aaron: what time is your therapy session today? I am concerned you will melt down before the end of the day.
Realistically, none of these will happen. This is why America rejected Reddit leftist ideas like yours.
No one who knows me thinks I’m a Trump fan. But, it will give me great pleasure on 7 Nov 2028 to ask “where are the gulags full of the press” and “I thought if Trump won we’d wouldn’t be voting anymore.” I, by the way, would have been equally critical of Trump’s predictions on Harris’s actions if she won.
Elections are always historic events. Lots of speculation in the regulatory and M&A front. Some will bear fruit and others won’t. Be thankful and take advantage of the opportunities.
@Matthew: Take a look at his. “Kamala Harris did not out perform Joe Biden in a single county in the entire country.” Absolutely shocking!
https://x.com/EricAbbenante/status/1854056504044744735
@Santastico … +1 . Foreseeable . I cannot imagine any regular Yank , in Kentucky or Texas , giving Camel-a the time of day .
@Alert: We are not talking Kentucky or Texas. We are talking every single county in the entire country. That shows how bad she was.
@Santastico … Exactly so . I only used Kentucky and Texas , in grateful tribute , because I owe my life to those wonderful people’s sons .
DOT will still accept consumer complaints. But, when sending in your complaint, you should expect to include a meaningful “tip” which the complaint-processor won’t have to report because it will be non-taxable.
Honestly I hope some of Mayor Pete’s policies and ideas stick around. I know that’s strange coming from me but the guy wasn’t as far left as some made him out to be. I also find it interesting he was nowhere to be found on the campaign trail or even a consideration for VP. He would have been a far better choice than Walz. Possibly a future story yet to be told on why.
Exactly.
There are a lot of people who would have made better choices (Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer come to mind), but I hope whoever Trump puts in does follow some of the same policies as Mayor Pete. Think he was one of the better parts of the Biden admin, and not just because he made Tim Dunn look foolish about Crowdstrike.
He would have beat Trump IMO, but that’s another discussion. He was a very able surrogate for KH, but this was not his time.
America not ready for a gay man for president
They apparently not ready for a black-Indian woman…
Please… First, it was about voters not ready for a woman President. Now, it is “not ready for a Black-Indian woman.” So you are basically calling Trump voters (or anyone voting for someone with an R beside their name) racists without using the word. What’s next – calling them “garbage” and “deplorables”? Maybe those voters were more influenced by effects and worries regarding “the economy” and “immigration”? But I guess today is more about “lashing out” for you…
America gets the leaders they deserve.
I recognized the anger over inflation and the border and offered no editorial endorsing one candidate or the other. I’ve largely stayed quiet on these two and will be attending the inaugural for Trump in January 2025, as I did in January 2017.
But try to stay calm and realize I’m not calling anyone racist or anti-woman, though it seems to me (just one observer) that it was more than just a disagreement over her policies…
Now, I join other Americans of good conscience in praying that God would bless this nation and its leadership and that the US would be a force for good in this world.
Sticking to the airlines:
– Frontier & Spirit will merge. However, one or both will need to declare bankruptcy. However, Frontier will be the survivor since its holding company (Indigo Partners) has the deeper pockets and could end up as the debtor-in-possession during the Chapter 11 proceedings. As a road map, this dual bankruptcy approach was used by Northwest & Delta.
– The North East Alliance will be approved by a Trump DOJ. Both gain from needed revenue, coverage & efficiency. Just to keep all happy, they will forfeit a slot or two.
– The recent slot allocation at DCA could be modified with additional slots or a scramble of the slots that were issued a few months ago
– As I predicted in a prior posting, AS/HA/B6 would emerge as the 5th nationwide legacy carrier, WN in the middle, with the merged Frontier handling the ULCC strata.
– Breeze is a wild card. Its lack of consistency and its unusual markets are a liability. However, its fresh A220 fleet is of value. My bet is DL picks them up as a complement to its existing A220 fleet as it is ready to drop its B717 airframes. However, Breeze would be a great opportunity for AA & UA to address smaller markets or improve frequency in key markets via shuttle service.
– Trump will allow the mergers as his carrot and use the refund policy as his stick to keep the airlines under control and to look good with the public which supported his re-election.
Maryland is the epitome of grace and style.
Yes she is!
I’m disappointed in the results, mostly because I believe character matters, but the American people made their choice. I just hope the new administration truly does focus on improving the lives of everyday Americans instead of pursuing perceived petty vendettas.
I think the trick is to point out to Trump, he can’t run again (not sure he knows that), and convince him to spend this (technically) lame-duck presidency to build his legacy. Get him started early planning his presidential library.
He can start getting together his presidential papers, doodles, and the artwork they stick on the refrigerator.
Someone should check on our friends over at Omni flyertalk. They’re going to stroke out they’re seething so bad.
I want Mango Mussolini, Hillbilly Bear, B6, and MX to die on the same day. The next day, I can die happy.
Typical mouthing off from idiotic liberals – President elect Trump has not even taken office yet and all of you morons “know” exactly what will happen. All you stupid liberals do is bitch and moan. You are one pathetic bunch…
Four years ago, we didn’t bitch and moan like some people who shall be unnamed and unbathed did to the point of invading the Capitol with weapons. You lie down with dogs, you wake up with fleas.
Trying to stay above the political fray on this disappointing day, but as a lead M&A counsel for a Fortune 100 company, I’m not so sure antitrust enforcement will drop as dramatically as you think. Vance is on the record praising Lina Khan and calling for more robust antitrust enforcement . Trump’s only interests in antitrust last time seemed to be punishing companies that he didn’t like (such as with the ATT/Time Warner merger), so if Vance has more of a voice there it might not be as easy for these mergers to go through as you think (and who knows one of the airlines could rub Trump the wrong way and incur his wrath).
I definitely think we won’t see the FTC/DOJ be as robust as they were on antitrust under Biden, but I don’t think we are going back to basically no antitrust enforcement at all like we saw under Reagan, Clinton, both Bushes, and even the early Obama years.
Stoking the fire, I see, with this blog. I know controversy increases your readership.
I’ve had enough of taking the bait.
The US is in serious, serious trouble as of today. Guess what? I don’t even care anymore. I’ll happily live blissfully in my privileged blue bubble in California as a white male. I’ll be fine.
My story went out of the way not to stoke any political fire. But the first comment was some stupid “satire” about Harris being a moron and I left a response to that. That’s not “bait.”