What caused the Ukrainian International Airlines 737-800 to crash shortly after takeoff from Tehran? Why have Ukraine and Iran released contradictory initial reports? With tense relations between the United States and Iran, how will the crash be investigated? Will Boeing be allowed to take part in the investigation?
What Do We Know About The UIA 737-800 Crash?
Speculation is not helpful, but let’s count up what we know:
- Hours before the crash, Iran fired two missiles toward U.S. bases in Iraq, allegedly deliberately missing the target so as not to further ratchet up tensions.
- Peter Goelz, a former Managing Director of the National Transportation Safety Board in the United States, told the New York Times investigators will probe a potential aircraft attack “at the top of their agenda”.
- The UIA 737-800 that crashed had a perfect safety record and was built in 2016.
- Automatic transmission of flight data abruptly ceased minutes after takeoff, after the plane climbed to 8,000 feet at a speed of roughly 300mph.
- Ali Abedzadeh, the head of Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization, told Mehr News Agency that Iran would not send the “black box” recorders from the crash to Boeing.
- Ukraine will be involved in the investigation.
- At a press conference in Kyiv, UIA officials said that the crew was highly trained and downplayed the possibility pilot error or lax maintenance was to blame for the crash.
- Abolfazl Shekarchi, a spokesperson for the Iranian Armed Forces, was asked whether Iran could accidentally or deliberately targeted the aircraft. His response:
- “This is ridiculous. Most of the passengers on this flight were our valued young Iranian men and women. Whatever we do, we do it for the protection and defense of our country and our people.”
- Iranian state media has blamed the crash on a technical fault with the American-made aircraft, but not provided evidence.
- Some images of the crash suggest there is shrapnel damage on the fuselage of the aircraft (circular holes).
- Qassem Biniaz, an official of Iran’s Ministry of Roads and Urban Development, blamed the accident on the aircraft catching fire.
- Locals near the crash site were awakened by the crash and shattered windows that resulted; many thought they were under attack.
- 176 people are confirmed dead from the crash.
- 63 Canadians (many with dual Iranian passports) were onboard.
- Justin Trudeau, Prime Minster of Canada, said:
- “Our government will continue to work closely with its international partners to ensure that this crash is thoroughly investigated, and that Canadians’ questions are answered.”
- Other nationals onboard included:
- 82 Iranians
- 11 Ukrainians (including 9 crew members)
- 10 Swedes
- 4 Afghans
- 3 Germans
- 3 British
- 12PM ET Update – A U.S. official has told CBS News the Iranians accidentally shot down the UIA 737, thinking it was a U.S. rocket
CONCLUSION
This is a fast-moving story, and a perplexing one. It is too early to conclude what happened, but helpful to begin to put the pieces of the puzzle together.
> Read More: No Survivors In Boeing 737-800 Crash In Iran
imge: UIA
Few experts ever speculate so early – yet a number of them do in the WaPO article today, including two former NTSB investigators, pretty much saying that it’s clearly a missile or bomb given the video of the plane on fire and the type of debris field and photos.
I don’t imagine this was done on purpose. just some trigger happy anti aircraft operator all worked up and convinced it was an American military aircraft.
Really a sad result to a completely idiotic week. The quiet tragedy in this are the innocent lives lost due to others muscle flexing and posturing. God, I miss diplomacy.
Yes, the most likely cause would appear to be that it was accidental shoot down by an anti aircraft battery. And yes, I do think that such a thing would have been accidental in that someone would have panicked and launched. The stated atmosphere in Tehran that morning would have lent itself to such a mistake.
Obviously, investigating the crash of a modern civilian jet is a very complex process with 10,000 moving parts and it’s easy to sit at your computer, sip coffee and theorize. Yet, based on the circumstantial evidence we have had access to and past experience, it’s hard to come up with many other plausible explanations for this tragedy.
Anyone know why there is flight serving this route, or why so many Canadians of Iranian descent fly from Iran to Kiev?
Andy, nearly 300k people of Iranian descent live in Canada. It’s quite significant and I just read that 168 of the passengers on board were continuing to Toronto.
So many Canadians because airfare is quite a bit cheaper than Qatar or Emirates. Also because they are coming from Iran, it is inconvenient to travel through the US because they may have violated sanctions. Like the Ethiopian 737 MAX crash where the flight was mostly sold to foreigners, the Ukrainian flight had only 2 Ukrainian passengers.
Thanks to both of you.
Breaking News…
Pentagon official claims Ukrainian passenger plane ‘was shot down by an Iranian anti-aircraft battery by mistake’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7868035/Ukrainian-airliner-TURNED-crashed-near-Tehran-killing-176.html
I’m sure the irony of this tragic event in the context of the U.S. navy shooting down an Iranian airbus all those years ago is not lost on us. And it’s always the complications that happen at the time of the event that predispose someone to make a decision that is erroneous.
Unfortunately, history repeats itself ; in addition to the trigger happy Iranians killing their own citizens on board a Ukrainian Airlines flight (using SA-15 surface to air missiles), there have been a number of other tragic incidents over the years, involving either surface to air missiles, fighter jets, or bombs planted on board, which were used to destroy commercial aircraft. The incidents were as follows:
In July, 1955, El Al Flt. 412, en route to Tel Aviv from London, inadvertently strayed over Bulgaria, and was shot down by Bulgarian fighter jets, resulting in the loss of 58 passengers and crew.
November-1955- A United Air Lines DC-6B was bombed, and blew up over Colorado, resulting in the loss of 44 lives.
February, 1973, a Libyan Arab Airlines commercial flight inadvertently strayed over the Sinai desert, and was shot down by Israeli fighter jets; 108 passengers were killed.
In September, 1973, a Korean Airlines flight (007), accidentally strayed over the Kamchatka Peninsula, as it was off course. It was shot down by a Soviet fighter jet, resulting in the loss of 269 passengers and crew.
In June, 1985, an Air India jet was bombed, and blew up over the Atlantic Ocean, near Ireland, resulting in the loss of 329 lives.
In July 1988, the USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian Air flight, resulting in the loss of 290 lives.
Dec., 1988-Pan American 103 was bombed, and blew up over Scotland, resulting in the loss of 279 passengers and crew.
2014- A Malaysian Airlines jet was shot down over the Ukraine, resulting in the loss of 298 passengers and crew.
It should be noted that the bombings of the United DC-6, the Air India bombing, and the Pan Am 103 bombing could have all been prevented. However, the airlines were just too cheap to employ security personnel to extensively screen the checked in luggage for explosives. For decades, passengers would be harassed for carrying trivial items (eye drops, baby formula, sandwiches, etc.), but at the same time, the airlines refused to have the checked in luggage, as well as the shipping packages checked for explosives. It wasn’t until after 9/11/01, that the checked in luggage of passengers was finally screened, and a few years afterwards, that shipping packages in the cargo containers of aircraft were also checked.
Incidentally, regarding the bombing of the United DC-6B aircraft, in 1955, the bomber was a young hoodlum, who placed dynamite in his Mother’s luggage in order to collect her life insurance, which he had just taken out on her, when she boarded the flight. He was arrested, tried, convicted, and executed within a year and a half of the bombing. In those days, there were no long, endless appeals, which last 20-30 years, or longer.
It was russian made missiles. Maybe trump asked Putin to remotely fire the missiles unbeknownst to Iran. Was trump suppressing evidence?
Well of course he was, and I’m sure you have tons of “proof” to show us that this is 100% true.
Really debit, do you actually think before you post, or is your brain on automatic pilot?
Larry have you seen any of trump’s rallies? You should ask does he have any brains before he speaks and whether his supporters are even humans.
That said this shooting is indirect result of killing Sulemani and before that withdrawing from the nuclear deal.
Withdraw from nuclear deal > Iran increases asymmetric warfare > sulemani assassinated > Iran fires missiles > Iran thinks it is being attacked and shoots down the airline
The victims families should sue the republican party for producing idiots as its leaders.
I’d like to correct a date, which I previously posted in error; Korea Air Lines Flt. 007, was shot down by a Soviet fighter jet, in September, 1983, and not September, 1973.