This will be an odd piece, for the focus will not be primarily on the subject matter of the story…a story about the vulnerability of United Airlines compared to Delta Air Lines…but about the author who seems to be Delta’s primary online cheerleader. Yes, this is a story about blogging, motives, ulterior motives, and Tim Dunn.
How Vulnerable Is United Airlines?…Or Is Something Else Going On?
I read as much as I can each day about the airline industry in particular and about travel in general. I sift through various news feeds in search of content for Live And Let’s Fly. Sometimes I skim. Last night, I was skimming a story on Seeking Alpha that caught my attention titled, United Airlines Is The Industry’s Most Vulnerable Player.
I began reading, where the author pointed out how labor and fuel costs are higher than previously forecast, concluding that United may be in for a rough patch ahead. The author also argued that United’s aircraft expansion program represents a “risky fleet strategy.”
But I quickly noticed there were a lot of mentions or contrasts with Delta in the story. For example:
Delta and United are the largest commercial users of jet fuel in the Northeast U.S., both of which have large hubs in the New York City area, while United also has a hub at Washington Dulles airport and Delta has a hub at Boston…United has long paid the most per gallon of the big four U.S. airlines, a reflection of the size of its operations in the Northeast U.S. and its lack of fuel hedging or cost reduction efforts such as Delta’s refinery.
Interesting. Ok.
United has not reached an agreement with its flight attendants on a new post-pandemic contract. Delta is the only one of the big 4 airlines that has hiked the pay of its flight attendants including adding pay during the boarding process for the first time; most U.S. airlines have not paid cockpit or cabin crew members during boarding or flight preparation but rather only when the aircraft door was closed.
Fair enough to compare Delta (the only non-unionized US network carrier) with United on this.
Delta changed the paradigm, which will particularly benefit junior flight attendants who often work shorter flights and spend more of their workday on the ground rather than in the air. American has made an offer to its flight attendant union that essentially matches Delta’s pay rates and major proposals including boarding pay and Delta’s higher profit-sharing formulae but the AAL flight attendants have not adopted the company proposal.
Ok. More Delta stuff. Then he talks about United in Latin America…by talking more about Delta.
Competitively, United faces a more challenging environment as Aeromexico and Latam, both Delta joint venture partners, rebuild following their restructurings under U.S. bankruptcy laws.
United has traditionally been the second-largest U.S. airline to Latin America, but Delta is likely to displace United as the two Latin carriers cooperate more closely with Delta and expand post-pandemic and post-restructuring.
No mention of Avianca-TACA, of which United owns a stake? Or Copa, which used to be owned by Continental Airlines and works very closely with United?
Ok, but let’s get back to United…or not:
The DOT has released profitability data by global region through the second quarter of 2023 for the four U.S. airlines that operate long haul international flights and United’s international strategies have not been near as successful as Delta’s in terms of profit generation.
The author argues that “UAL for years has been willing to settle for lower profits in exchange for larger size” and to make his points compares United with…Delta:
Delta was more profitable than United flying both to Latin America and across the Atlantic. United’s profit on the Pacific was just 10% larger than Delta even though United’s Pacific revenue was almost exactly twice as much as Delta.
Thus, the author concludes, “UAL could quickly move from being one of the airline industry’s darlings from a stock performance standpoint to one of its weakest players.”
And then I scrolled up to the top to see who wrote this story…and saw it was none other than Tim Dunn, the man who loves to spend his day making pro-Delta arguments across a number of Boarding Area blogs.
I took a look at some of his recent work for Seeking Alpha and that includes:
- Southwest Airlines Suffers Through Its Annus Horribilis
- Alaska Airlines Facing Industry Headwinds
- JetBlue Earnings Show A Company Without A Flight Plan
- United Airlines Q2 Earnings Preview: Growth Might Be A Miss
- American Airlines Restrategizes – Again
- American Airlines’ Labor Cost Increases Will Likely Bite
- Beware The Enthusiasm About United Airlines Stock
(there’s more…but you get the idea)
There were also these recent stories:
- Delta Air Lines Proves It Is A High-Quality Investment
- New Planes, Pilots And Partnerships To Fuel Delta Air Lines Profit Growth
- Delta Air Lines To Thrive With New Consumer Protections
Oh Tim, tell us what you really think!
My first thought was really that Dunn must own a lot of Delta stock in order to be such a vociferous Delta cheerleader, but an analyst disclosure at the end of each story states Dunn has “no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.”
I do have to wonder if his spouse does…
And I don’t say that in a mean-spirited way. I quite enjoy Dunn’s commentary and the fact that he can always be counted on to put a positive spin on anything Delta-related. Sometimes he is spot on and sometimes he is simply entertaining. But it just doesn’t make sense to me. Some readers accuse me of being a United Airlines apologist for my extensive coverage of United, but I write about United a whole lot because I fly United a whole lot and on the whole I’d say my coverage of United skews fair. I hold no punches when it comes to the downsides of flying United Airlines, such as its premium cabin catering or the trajectory of MileagePlus. I wonder if Dunn ever actually flies Delta?
Folks, if I ever start sounding like Dunn when it comes to United, please let me know. Because Dunn seems intelligent enough, but his nonstop pro-Delta mantra (bordering on propaganda) makes me truly question his motives. I knew he loved commenting on blogs, but was not aware of his own platform to promote Delta’s cause.
CONCLUSION
I don’t like to make stories about people instead of issues, but Dunn has been such a force on Boarding Area that I cannot help but to wonder if there is something going on that we just are not aware of. Maybe he’s simply an ardent Delta fan and if so, Delta has got a great advocate in him. But the nonstop cheerleading does make me scratch my head.
I’m happy to talk about Dunn or we can talk about how vulnerable United is…
This DOT profitability report is not accurate is it? I don’t think it ties to the financial reports of airlines.
It doesn’t tie, no. Airlines are welcome to ascribe revenue to any part of the ticket as they choose. I.E. If I buy a ticket LAS-SFO-HND on United for $2000 while you buy a ticket on Delta LAS-LAX-HND for $2000. United could allocate $750 to the LAS-SFO leg and thus could look unprofitable on the SFO-HND leg from DOT reporting while Delta could allocate $150 to LAS-LAX and $1850 for LAX-HND. It’s an obvious example of how there isn’t a standard in DOT data by geographic region. Delta would look more profitable Trans-Pacific even though the purchase price was the same. There’s just no standard and Tim has been told that many times by many people but doesn’t care if it helps the Delta story. Delta is more profitable overall across their entire network than United but that’s about all the DOT data would tell you.
Very nicely stated Max.
That’s an amazing find! At this point I am starting to wonder whether Tim Dunn is even a real person. For some reason that profile photo looks a bit suspect to me. Perhaps he is a made up character being used by one or more investors to try and pump up DL stock, and who are using AI to assist in writing these articles (and social media/blog comments).
I had considered that too, that Delta Dunn was just some nutjob getting their rocks off screwing with people, not believing a word of the crap they were spewing.
Tim makes you realize any person with enough hot air to fill a balloon can write for one of these “online publications”.
That contributor gig explains a lot of the wind
Delta’s FAs are actively trying to unionize
And he fails to note the easiest bear case for United, instead relying on ‘compare to DL’ tropes
i love the word “penultimate”, but don’t think your usage is correct here. It means “next to last”. Think you mean “second only to”
I think you’re right.
It’s a paid forum slider account, and I’m *beyond* baffled you and Ben continue to allow it. I’ll commend you for getting closer to the truth, however. Maybe speed up your epiphany for everyone’s sake 😉 ?
This is brilliant. Good research. Maybe Tim should change his photo to be one of Tom Brady, like an alarming number of DL employees are doing in their Outlook profiles.
DL themselves blow a lot of hot air, they are not the airline they think they are. BOS operation is seen as a “hub” but AA is nearly as big there, with the exception of JFK/LGA both AA and UA have larger passenger counts in the NE US. They couldn’t (and still can’t) compete with AA in MIA or South/Central America so they bought JV partners and will still be 2nd or 3rd. They double tricked AK as a partner and built another so-called hub in SEA, but AK out performs them and now have OneWorld to support international travel. They bought NWA for the Pacific operation and have basically shut it down and will lose to key slots (hopefully to AA, just for competition sack) and close the Tokyo hub in favor of closer ties to Korean Air? Then there is Tom Brady. . .need we go on. DL is making money but the fleet is old, the planes tired, the service is no better then AA or UA, their international product is a step down from AA and UA and Skymillimeters is worthless. DL’s past was bright but the future is returning them to an old slogan “Delta. . gets you there”.
My interactions with Tim Dunn have made it crystal clear to me that he has no business pretending he is a financial analyst. He simply doesn’t understand basic financial concepts and absolutely refuses to correct the record when he is wrong. You get what you pay for at Seeking Alpha and run the risk that you end up making investing decisions based on unqualified (or biased) writers. In Tim’s case, he has said that large companies can’t be debt free (absolutely false — look at some of the tech companies — it just depends on how a company is capitalized and their financial policies), that he doesn’t care if companies have debt in their capital structure (an absolutely idiotic statement for an airline investor to say, especially given how good of collateral aircraft are and how capital intensive this industry is) and that “no net debt” is the same as positive net worth (they are very different). Tim seems to have a higher-than-average knowledge of operating statistics but is absolutely in over his head when it comes to financial analysis. Anyone reading his work should bear in mind that any writing of Tim’s that is driven by financial analysis is highly suspect because of his poor understanding of basic finance. Tim should stick to analysis of airline operations and leave the financial analysis for folks who understand, for example, that “no net debt” and “positive net worth” are different.
The legend grows lmao.
Still, I mostly skip over DL posts on OMAAT because the comments section is immediately about Tim Dunn, which is a shit discussion topic. I hope the comments section here is much less hate-bonery.
Tim always looks at profitability reports by region to try and prove his point even though those reports don’t prove what he thinks they do. There are so many ways to report profitability by region, yet he uses them to say DL is more successful than UA in Asia, even though DL’s main TPAC hub has three flights to Asia.
He skews numbers, as in when he says DL has 200% more widebodies scheduled for delivery than UA, omitting that DL has 12 while UA has 6, for a difference of *6* planes. He also omits that UA’s 6 planes are the first of 100 more 787s, possibly 150 if the rumors are to be believed about today’s additional order.
He says UA has inefficient 777s while never mentioning DL’s 767s, also omitting the fact that UA has a fleet replacement and growth plan in place. He also always talks about DL’s A350-1000s that they haven’t even ordered yet.
If any hypocrisy or inaccurate ideas are pointed out, he just deflects with “I post facts” or “you need to realize”.
He says DL is a “premium” carrier, but only when compared against the domestic carriers, since he also says DL is a domestic airline and can’t be compared to international airlines, even though, according to him, DL is the most profitable airline in the world and could clearly make themselves comparable to SQ, NH, etc if they wanted to.
The list goes on and on, but you get the idea. lol
How old is that pic?
Shirt does look very circa 1993 doesn’t it? Then again, my wardrobe isn’t exactly avant-garde.
Exxxxxcellent! And what’s funny is that, as I read this, I thought to myself “what, did Tim Dunn write this dreck?”
And yes, yes he did! Great investigative piece, Matthew!
I only needed to read the title and my literal first thought was, “Is Matthew writing about Tim Dunn? Like, is he specifically calling him out in his own, tailored blog post. Yikes.” Then as read the actual article I realized, yes, he sort of is, indirectly. I mean, if Eddy B ever needs a handie, I’m sure Tim would be more than willing given the drivel the seems to come from some unending font of fanboi gushing. It’s so…sad.
Years ago, I had an overweight colleague who was a Delta cheerleader and tried to convince everyone else to fly Delta. Maybe its a Confederacy good ol’ boys thing?
Almost all of the bloggers fly American; you are pretty unique in that you fly United. The “Eye of the Flyer” guys barely seem to fly Delta anymore, and Frequent Miler does some Delta flying, but it’s not the focus of the blog. There is an opportunity for a primarily Delta flyer to travel blog from a Delta customer perspective…
There is one. It is call TPG or ThePointsGuy. They publish cut-n-paste pushed PR from Delta.
As for me I will as I always have keep calling out both the good and bad Delta does.
Wait, this Tim Dunn is not the Tim Dunn of Terra Alpha Investments (who IS a chartered financial analyst)? I’ve had the wrong face and background associated with all these posts for years…
The writing style parallels the comments – I think you had the wrong Dunn!
I don’t get all the Delta bashing when they consistently rate/score higher in customer satisfaction. I care more about the experience with the airline than I do their frequent flyer programs. I collect sky miles as well. Delta listened to their customers and reviewed and changed their newest devaluation. Also, I have nothing against United or AA and actually fly them on occasion.
Have they actually spelled out the changes or said they will review them? Big difference.
I had recent futile exchanges with Tim Dunn. This reveal is a light bulb moment.
It seems entirely normal for someone to have a favored airline, but Tim’s stuff looks like it should be paid work. If he’s not paid to promote Delta, then the dedication and exuberance seems pathologic.
Tim is a Delta retiree that is why he sees Delta with blinders on.
Wouldn’t that mean he would have some financial interest in Delta or did Delta dump all obligations on PBGC?
You might be right, but when Tim was still on airliners.net before he was banned, plenty of Delta employees confirmed he was fired, not retired, from delta.
He’s been around for quite some time trolling aviation blogs. He was the infamous “worldtraveller” on a.net before he was banned. Others with his identical writing style surfaced on the site shortly after but were eventually banned too.
Great find, Matthew. This is why I love your blog. Spot on and puts things into perspective. I have long suspected that anyone who defends Delta (or any U..S. Carrier for that matter) in such an all in manner, as if Jesus himself chooses to fly them, is personally involved in some form. There is no other explanation. Not to mention the counter of his being certain to attack any competing airline as if Satan’s first choice.
Matthew;
We’re letting you know you’re sounding like Tim Dunn for United.
You’re welcome.
Like many of the others, my first thought was, “Must be an article about Tim Dunn.” His obsession with DL really is a bit strange.
What? Mr. Tim Dunn hasn’t commented yet!!??
LOL!!!
I wondered the same.
He has had a lot of comments, give and take with Bret over at the Cranky Flier Blog. People who can’t ever admit they are wrong I can easily ignore.
That profile photo looks like pollster Frank Luntz.
I wish we could have Scott Kirby and Tim Dunn do a debate. It would be so good, and everyone would see Delta isn’t all that.
I’ve always felt his posts were suspect, I have seen his type before on travel forums with people who go crazy defending everyone from Marriott to Disney theme parks to cruise lines, especially RCL. Almost every single one, except for a few with real mental illness and brand addiction, had some sort of financial incentive to pontificate nothing but positivity about said company.
The man, if he actually exists and isn’t multiple people who have created the persona, comes off as a total shill and people really should simply ignore the posts and not interact. Delta does some things well and others not so well. But reading him, you’d think they’re near perfect and, more importantly, run by the best and smartest people in the industry.
I don’t know whether he has a financial incentive or not, but I’ve read enough at this point to believe he has fairly strong autism/Asperger’s: “people with Asperger’s Syndrome have a difficult time relating to others socially and their behavior and thinking patterns can be rigid and repetitive…Talking incessantly about a single topic and not noticing that others are not listening….Specific, narrow, unusual interests”.
I fly UAL. I fly DL. Whichever one best gets me where I am going. While DL had an edge on service it is no more which is why I found Dunn’s cheerleading and pontificating so annoying. I love all the speculation on who he really is and is about.
SO many things to address here:
1: Great Article Matthew
2: I was almost rling my eyes at the beginning of this because I don’t think it’s helpful to feed into Timmy’s delusions of grandeur.
3: I and MANY others on several sites have asked Tim Dunn to at the VERY LEAST acknowledge what his current status level is with Delta. He ignores us or states that it’s his personal financial business. LOL
4: He HAS TO have some motive beyond what’s public.
5: What a handsome profile picture. (Being serious)
Tory could be right- Asperger’s syndrome seems to explain a lot of Dunn’s ramblings.
The October 4th response by MaxPower is accurate. Long time habitue of airliners.net under the nom-de-plumes of “worldtraveller”, “Mr. Peanut”, and others. Dunn was a 30 year DL employee with his (last?) title that of ‘analyst’ (per his Linkedin profile). He has been writing for Seeking Alpha for several years now. I also once challenged him on his fiduciary responsibility for disclosure per Seeking Alpha’s rules.
You have to wonder just how time the guy finds in responding to blogposts when his day job is that of a mayor. Even the official city government portrait indicates where Mr. Dunn’s loyalties lie: https://www.cityoflilburn.com/directory.aspx?eid=2
Wait. How old is that picture on Seeking Alpha?
Matthew,
I pointed out this article you wrote and the comments made about Tim Dunn to Tim himself. He did not believe at first that this article existed. But Tim knows that I can’t stand his constant AA bashing. I thought he would leave some kind ofcomment in regards to his defense of his position but he did not. I find that quite interesting. I wonder why?
He has left comments before – I am surprised that he chose not to comment here.