Delta made its position clear on elite status in 2021 for 2022 travel. American made a move weeks prior, but now United has added a promotion that falls short of Delta and even American.
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United’s Latest Move
United Airlines announced a new promotion initially covered by this site last week that detailed a promotion to maintain status for the upcoming year with just 20% of annual requirements flown between July 27th and November 30th of this year. It does not take into account the headstart United gave elites at the beginning of the year nor flying to this point unless they are within 20% of their targets. Read the aforementioned article for a more detailed analysis of the promotion.
Delta Air Lines has instead simply granted another year of status to its elite customers.
The Other Delta Problem
One of the key issues United Airlines will face is the Delta variant problem, to go along with the Delta Air Lines problem. COVID-19 infection rates in the United States are again on the rise. While there is a huge push to complete vaccination, there may be little benefit in so doing. The US has achieved a 70% partial (at least) vaccination rate – the prior requirement for satisfactory herd immunity. The vaccine doesn’t appear to stop the Delta variant according to data from a Maryland study released by the state’s head medical agency:
“Of 469 cases linked to multiple summer events and large summer gatherings in a small town, 346 (74%) occurred in fully vaccinated people, and almost 80% of those cases were symptomatic, reported Catherine Brown, DVM, of the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, and colleagues.
There were five hospitalizations, four among fully vaccinated people, and no deaths. Of 133 cases with sequence information available, 89% were from the Delta variant (B.1.617.2), the authors wrote in an early edition of the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.
Moreover, vaccination coverage in Massachusetts was reported to be 69% as of July 3, they noted.” – MedPage Today
Applying those figures, the state had 69% vaccination coverage yet 74% fully vaccinated were sick. That suggests that the vaccinated may be as if not more likely to contract the Delta variant of the coronavirus. The CDC has noted that vaccinated patients who have contracted the virus are less likely to experience serious illness as a result. Yet, in this example, vaccinated persons were more likely to also be hospitalized (or as likely due to the sample size) than those who had not been vaccinated against COVID-19.
COVID is here to stay. The Delta variant is twice as infectious, though may be less damaging than the original. Delta Air Lines assumes that governmental agencies, businesses, and people will operate the same way they did the first time around by masking up and shutting down. United, and American both think that there is a window before this happens. Either Delta or United/American is right but not both.
The data also complicates the argument for the unvaccinated to get the jab when it isn’t successful against the Delta variant. This comes on the heels of an announcement by United CEO Scott Kirby and President Brett Hart and their decision to require a vaccine for all United employees. The vaccine mandate announced to employees Friday will require employees to show proof of their status. More United flight attendants are vaccinated than pilots currently.
The Promotion Is Problematic
None of the airlines have seen enough flying from their elites. Delta Air Lines simply granted another year of status to those who had it, rightly adding a priority for upgrades and perks to those who have already requalified with this carrier this year.
Both American and United’s revenue plays won’t likely succeed, though American’s attempt may be closer to the mark.
Timing
American’s promotion started earlier and with a lower threshold for top tier elites, just $2,000 spent as opposed to United’s $3,000. When American offered its promotion, it overlapped more of the summer when families travel and cases were lower. United’s response to Delta came at a time when COVID-19 cases have again crossed 100,000/day.
Complication
I write about and participate in these promotions for this blog. I relish these opportunities, yet I still had to reach out to Matthew for clarification. It’s far too complicated. Those who spend the $3,000 requalify, but if they don’t then some amount of points (depending on prior status level) are awarded anyway. This follows a gift of status PQPs to elites at the beginning of the year.
I played out a few scenarios where I spend less than $2,700 during the period and it does nothing for me with the bonus. It’s all or nothing, so why have the secondary promotion at all? It may benefit a sliver of its customer base but overall it’s far too unclear.
Reality
Even employees who are vaccinated may not have travel privileges from their employers during this period. It is unlikely that they will take to the skies in the same manner as before without a company picking up the tab.
Conclusion
United’s promotion is likely too little to late. Elites concerned about the Delta variant may not return to the skies and this will make Delta Air Lines’ generous approach seem far more appealing for any flights remaining this year or after November 30th. United’s nickel and dime style isn’t even better than American’s approach which already looks “not good enough.” More elites will be looking at Delta Air Lines as the carrier that has their back, while United reaches for their back pocket.
What do you think? Will United’s new promotion work for or against the company? Is Delta the carrier to beat?
“The US has achieved a 70% partial (at least) vaccination rate – the prior requirement for satisfactory herd immunity.” Where are you getting these numbers from? US fully vaccinated population is around 50%. Even if you add partially vaccinated (which doesn’t do anything for herd immunity) that would add couple of percentage points. Nowhere close to 70%. And note that in order to achieve herd immunity you need 70%-90%, so getting to the minimum of the range does not mean that herd immunity has been achieved.
@Dominik – Thanks for reading and for the comment. Unfortunately, many of your assumptions are incorrect. Here’s one of many reports claiming 70% at least partial vaccination from six days ago: https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-health-coronavirus-pandemic-e33cc7e3eb782ceffdc9107a7cac25ab.
Second, partial vaccination (one shot of a two shot vaccine) is nearly as effective as full vaccination according to the CDC:
“Once fully vaccinated, participants’ risk of infection was reduced by 91 percent. After partial vaccination, participants’ risk of infection was reduced by 81 percent.” – https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/p0607-mrna-reduce-risks.html
That’s why the UK went to a model whereby they want everyone to have at least one shot before administering the second, 81% of everyone is better than 91% for some of the population. https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/05/18/96-of-people-develop-covid-antibodies-after-just-one-shot-of-pfizer-or-astrazeneca-vaccine-uk-study-finds/?sh=2a9b926a699b
And while you correctly note that 70% is at the low end of herd immunity, you’ve not included the 35.1MM Americans that have recovered from COVID (about 12%) some of whom will and will not have had the vaccine. So the number is potentially as high as 82% partially immune, but not less than 70%. Excluding those that hold antibodies from infection ignores an important sector of the population. While we do not know how long antibodies will last, so long as they do, they are near 100% effective against COVID beating the vaccines by 5-10% making them even more important than even fully vaccinated persons.
The article you quoted states that 70% of the adult population is immunized….only about 50% of the total population has.
@Barbara – Thank you for reading and for your comment, however, what I typed was: “The US has achieved a 70% partial (at least) vaccination rate – the prior requirement for satisfactory herd immunity.” That’s different than both saying that 50% of the population is “vaccinated” (the number I believe you’re referring to) and different still from immunized (which would include those that have the antibodies but not the vaccine as well as those who have natural immunity.)
Without a doubt, 70% is at least partially vaccinated (at least one shot) – https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-health-coronavirus-pandemic-e33cc7e3eb782ceffdc9107a7cac25ab
And as that number does not include those who hold the antibodies from illness unless they also have been vaccinated, you can add 35 million to those that will hold the antibodies (immunity in this case so long as they remain active).
So, in fact, no less than 50% are fully “immune” (though the vaccines are 90-95% effective meaning that even this group is not fully immune), another 20% have had at least one shot, and 12% (35MM out of 320MM US population) hold antibodies but may or may not be fully or partially vaccinated. Those that have at least 81% effective protection is no less than 70% and could be as much as 82% known.
There’s another group that is immune outside of these numbers but for which statisticians are blind. The 35MM who have had recovered from COVID were tested. Undoubtedly millions more experienced the virus, but were asymptomatic, misdiagnosed, or never sought care and those may also have antibodies but do not factor into these figures.
I think the point they are trying to make is adult vaccination vs total population. Whole 70% of adults have at least one shot, that’s not including children (many of whom aren’t even eligible). So they are nitpicking a bit, but population would include the children, so to say 70% of the population isnt entirely true
@Mitch – I take your point on board, but I don’t think that’s been clearly indicated by the media nor President Biden. It’s a valuable note, but it’s probably time to start figuring out just how many have the antibodies and how big this problem is going forward. If just 10% of the confirmed cases (35MM) were asymptomatic, and beat it but never knew they were sick, that would still elevate the “immune” population dramatically. No one is talking about 1) how many hold the antibodies but are otherwise uncounted and the number could be significant, and 2) just how lethal the Delta strain is – we know how contagious, but not if it’s as lethal as the original iteration.
So Kyle, what’s your deal, are you saying that UNITED will inevitably end up extending status for another year to all Premieres? Is that your paradigm?
I don’t see how they couldn’t. American Airlines had a sampling that showed just 3.8% of current travelers were members of Advantage compared to a normal rate of 12% and that Cocierge Key are almost non-existent. It’s unlikely American is alone. I think it’s got to look something like a reward for those who complete it and renewal minus for those who don’t. For example, those who complete it for United will probably get all of their plus points next year and be prioritized over status holders granted a repreive. Delta has laid this model for Medallion.
If somehow, some way, they dig their heels in and keep this model – the first quarter promotions next year are going to be very lucrative.
I gotcha, and yeah, it makes sense what you’re saying. Thanks for the comments!
I had 3 flights scheduled for the next two weeks, but due to the Delta variant surge our Corporate Travel has just been put on hold again. I’m doubtful that I’ll be able to fly enough by the end of November to requalify for United Platinum ($2,000 in spend).
I would assume most corporate travel will be on a similar hold perhaps through the end of the year.
Honestly – United and AA should extend their elites membership for another year for free and for those people who completed their challenges ($2k / $3k) should get some rewards. That’s all.
Nit: “Problematic” is such a vague and overused word it’s become meaningless. Consider revising with a more precise word to clarify your thinking.
The whole point of UA’s PQP elite program is to demote less profitable leisure flyers to lower status levels. If you look at the cumulative free points from their promos this years, most old elites will drop two tiers with no flying or one tier with light flying. Seems like they’re being generous with a soft landing for no longer active customers.
Unfortunately, even the most frequent and profitable flyers for the airlines cannot overcome their own corporate travel restrictions and assuming they could, cannot overcome those of their clients and vendors. Thinning the herd would thin out the wrong type of customer for United, American, and Delta right now.
I’m glad United is culling its elite ranks somewhat. With Delta’s approach, everyone is elite and the benefits are highly diluted. I’d rather be UA Gold than DL Platinum…
One last thought: the folks who will make their Fly to the Finish challenge are either business travelers flying often or leisure travelers buying premium cabins, exactly the folks UA wants to retain as elites. The folks who fail are Y leisure travelers and ground biz travelers. UA can always run targeted status challenges next year to re-engage the latter group
Please learn some basic stats before spewing vaccine misinformation.
At the end of the day your simple metric is who gave free status. As a United elite I’m not sure how Delta simply extending status will make me flee towards them especially given some of the operational issues they have had. Also as someone who does a decent amount of international travel, skypesos just are not adequate.
These moves just tell me that they are confident in their business position going ahead and not desperate. I’m looking forward to your column explaining your move to Delta skymiles.
I won’t argue that Delta Skypesos are less valuable than United Mileage Plus miles, but would put it more on a scale of “SkyBaht” and “MileagePesos” because Delta has deteriorated their value dramatically from the initial assignment of that moniker but MileagePlus really isn’t that far behind. Go shopping for a trip and compare across the brands, Delta is objectively worse but not by much and Delta also offers discount trips like the current Europe coach fares for 34,000 roundtrip or Caribbean routes for 5,000 each way that United never seems to match.
I can understand confidence in the product, I think Delta is plenty confident too, but that’s why I spent half this article describing the challenges coming with the Delta variant – not Delta Air Lines. Delta Air Lines simply believes that we are going to shut down again or at least restrict business travel out of caution and there is no way its flyers will make it so why play games with them. United should know this too, but is still trying to squeeze customers for a little bit more. Why not, it’s capitalism. But those who aren’t married to United or American may walk where they aren’t squeezed so tight.
So would American issue “AAdvantage Reals?”
It’s unfortunate that United, American and others aren’t really doing much to encourage fliers to reach NEW status tiers. Delta is alone in doing that, and many are pushing for initial or higher status. I would love to pick up lower tier United status along with status on Delta and American.
Kyle, I have a question about my promotion–not able to get a clear answer from the website.
As of the July 27, 2021 cut off etc I need to fly another 1400 PQP by Nov 30, 2021 to regain status. If I already have more than 1400 PQP scheduled in that time period (most of it bought before the promotion was announced) does that count or do I have to book and fly ANOTHER 1400 PQP worth of travel before Nov 30 2021?
@Martha – Thanks for reading and for commenting. I believe that since the purchased travel occurs within the period, you’ll be fine. However, as at least one award trip will trigger that backup bonus system and put you over the edge, maybe look for a weekend getaway with a cheap redemption cost.
Why sprinkle your expert airline status advice with vaccine misinformation? Statistics seems beyond your comprehension, plain and simple.
@TP – Thanks for reading and for commenting. Our audience will ask why it’s a forgone conclusion that travel will not continue its current trajectory so facts and figures are required and applied.
Can you give me an example of a statistic that’s incorrect, I’ll gladly replace it if I have misquoted, misunderstood, or misreferenced.
Thank you for your kind reply. I believe you cherry-pick statistics to prove a point, for example the 81% immunity after 1 shot – I saw numbers around 50%.,.for example in the much respected Israeli studies.
The 70% number for herd immunity pertained to the infection model based on less transmissible variants, the easier to spread the bug, the higher % is needed for the “nowhere to go” for the virus scenario, right?
And I can’t see how you can jump from available statistic re. % of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated in hospitals and morgue to the conclusion that vaccines do not work.
From where I’m sitting I think the promotion is a smart move on United’s part enticing their customers to travel a bit more to earn status next year.
Like you stated COVID is here to stay and the Delta variant has been raging out of control in the US for over 3 weeks now yet we have not seen any type dip in demand in travel in the US. I think United is trying to pull in as much money as they possible can during Q3, promotions like the one United announced will help United’s bottom line. Once the promotion has expired but before the end of the year United will announce an extension of status for all passengers just like Delta has already done.
To be honest I’m surprised Delta announce it this early, United announced an extension for GS passengers but not all premier passengers. By Delta announcing their extension so early passengers who were traveling doing mileage runs trying to re-qualify no longer have a reason to travel if that were their sole purpose. Delta’s early announcement could end up costing Delta money this year, and I don’t think any of these carriers are any facing a substantial defection of premier travelers from for instance MilagePlus too SkyMiles.
You’re forgetting the incentive of rollover MQM’s. Delta flyers have every incentive to keep flying this year, as 100% of their elite qualifying miles will roll over to 2022 for earning 2023 status. They also have great promotions for additional MQM’s on credit card sign-ups and spending. The combo of extending status and rolling over MQMs actually encourages more flying: most people are skeptical of achieving any status level this year, but staying loyal to Delta means whatever you do this year will help you gain status when you think you might actually be able to achieve it.
As a business traveler that requalified for 1k in May, I’m glad united isn’t diluting the status pool. From a consumer standpoint, I’m better off, and better paid attention to, as one of a few.
Delta extended status, that means they’re carrying over numerous deadbeat flyers, as well as all the new additions.
Hypothetically, I see Delta cheapening it’s program benefits to offset the influx of new enrollees.
Whereas United may end up with a smaller top tier, but more elite.
Until American gets it’s pilot shortage fixed and stops cancelling flights, I feel they’re irrelevant.
Just my two cents♂️
As a 1K flyer on United, I find their new system (or systemS) to requalify for status to be confusing. I cannot fly much right now due to the Delta variant, but I do have a flight coming up in 2 months, and I can’t figure out what I need to requalify at this point. I have points from last year that I can’t even use right now due to the Delta variant.
Thank you for your article.
The infection metrics you use are self selected samples of people who got tested after feeling sick. You cannot draw inferences to the greater population from these samples.
The Uk is sending tests to random homes and that is showing far more similar results for Delta to the original strains. The Band news bears and Us click bait news are spinning up bad stories to keep the ad dollars rolling in.
https://fortune.com/2021/08/03/covid-delta-variant-wave-uk-have-already-receded-us/
The Provincetown Massachusetts, not Maryland, outbreak you are referring to above is an example of anecdotal evidence. It is useful information to those capable of placing it in proper context however it is being unfortunately employed in a misguided attempt to prove an erroneous viewpoint by those who are not.
Most importantly unless you note the number of people exposed in the outbreak and that cohort’s vaccination percentage then the figure of 74% of infected having been vaccinated is pretty much useless.
That is unless one is trying to make a point for which there is limited actual evidence.
https://apple.news/A8ELHUwKvQ8idz0b_0SkJWw
@Kyrial Dreis – Your suggestion that this study is disqualified but others are valid is not a holistic picture of available data. Just today, in a study from the Mayo Clinic, Pfizer was just 42% effective against Delta: https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html
I agree that we can’t cherry-pick data but we also cannot ignore studies, examples, and instances that counter our understanding either. Cherry-picking studies to include is the same as cherry-picking data to exclude.
I do not discount the study. To quote from my comment, “it is useful information for those capable of placing it in the proper context.” What I am calling into question are the false assertions contained within your post that are based upon your misreading of the Provincetown data. Specifically the following,
“Applying those figures, the state had 69% vaccination coverage yet 74% fully vaccinated were sick. That suggests that the vaccinated may be as if not more likely to contract the Delta variant of the coronavirus.”
You do not know the number of people exposed, the nature of their exposure, nor the vaccination rate of those exposed so you cannot accurately draw this conclusion.
Increased infection of vaccinated people due to the delta variant appears to be happening but this study does not yet show us at what rate.
“Problematic” is using data from the Provincetown outbreak to infer anything. Never mind the small sample size. The elephant in the room is that the vast majority of those who became infected were males in their mid 30s who had been to house parties, etc. during what is, quite frankly, a week of widespread promiscuity, meaning lots of extremely close physical contact. It’s also worth a closer look at how many of the supposedly “fully vaccinated” are taking PrEP, and how that might interfere with the vaccine, considering the mechanism of PrEP is “to block important pathways that viruses use to set up infection”. It’s entirely possible that PrEp makes the vaccines less effective by blocking the pathways the vaccine uses to trigger the immune response.
At this point, it’s way too soon to use any data from Provincetown to draw conclusions about the general population, and irresponsible to report it as gospel. Saying the data “complicates the argument for the unvaccinated to take the jab when it isn’t successful against the Delta variant” is a complete falsehood, flies in the face of real-world data (which shows that the vast majority of people being infected by the Delta variant are unvaccinated), and should be retracted.
The Mayo Clinic disagrees: https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html
Why isn’t anyone talking about the Cleveland Clinic who found in a study of over 50,000 found that those who have had the virus receive no benefit in getting the vaccine – that’s now 20% of the adult population. In fact, they are at lower risk than those who have had the jab.
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210608/No-point-vaccinating-those-whoe28099ve-had-COVID-19-Findings-of-Cleveland-Clinic-study.aspx
Kyle, thanks for this article. My promotion told me I need 600 (with 4 pqf) or 700 pqp … But ai already have 2452 pqp! So the promotion actually indicates I need more, not less
Your table above indicates, I should be able to qualify for Gold or higher … But that wasn’t indicated in the email I receive. Do you think higher tier qualification is included – or it’s only to requalify to the tier you were last year (I was silver.)
I will easily earn 2000 pqp with my planned trips through the end of the year.
Thanks!
Is this post about United’s promotion or that the vaccine doesn’t work? I can’t tell what you’re trying to get at. There are other studies than just the Cape Cod Cluster that show you’re not more likely to get hospitalized. When did Live&Let’sFly turn into Breitbart?
Pass
@Sean – Here’s what we have to establish: Delta cases rising> will cause shut downs again> no one will be able to make their requalification.
If we don’t first discuss why the Delta variant will rise despite vaccination, then we don’t get to why these moves are important and why Delta Air Lines is ahead of the curve and United is behind. If I were to leave it at “Delta cases are rising” some commenters would say “just in the south” which will not force a mass shut down again. But that wouldn’t be true as indicated. If we don’t show that there is evidence the vaccines are ineffective against the latest iteration, the shutdown Delta is predicting will be dismissed and come as a surprise.
Here’s a new report from the Mayo Clinic that supports that Pfizer is just 40% effective against Delta: https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html
It’s not to say “vaccines are bad” it’s to say “vaccines are less effective against the current iteration” which will lead to what Delta has drawn as an inevitable conclusion.
I am happy to remain a hopeful United flyer. Yes, Delta mutations are a new and unpleasant reality thank a lot of factors. Your vaccine information is not wrong, but just not necessary in a flyer’s blog. Viruses mutate, and those are just facts. Stay in your lane.
But, United has announced an employee vaccine mandate, goes where I want to go, and right now, I’m willing to pay my own way.
Business flyers are not my concern, and they have had far too much access to the seats I am willing to pay for.
The Massachusetts example is a bad one. The vast majority of people in Province town are LGBTQ visitors who probably have a vaccination rate above 95% – hence there wouldn’t be many people in the town who are vaccinated to skew the numbers the other way. Still, it proves that vaccinated people can get it and be symptomatic, however 74% breakthrough rate as shown in the Provincetown data is just overstated for a larger scale.
There’s also this out today from the Mayo Clinic: https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccines-pfizer-moderna-delta-biden-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html