Is the U.S. on the verge of a “tourism shock”? One digital travel agency is claiming the answer is YES. Its analytics reveal the interest in traveling to the USA in 94 countries has fallen sharply since the Trump inauguration and travel ban.
17% drop in flight searches to USA
A company called Hopper compared the number of daily searches from international origins to the US before and after the election. It averaged searches for the two weeks leading up to the election and the three weeks after, finding an overall drop in search traffic of 17%.
Demand fell in 94 of 122 origin countries in which “significant data” exists. For the seven nations directly impacted by the travel ban, searches to the USA are down 33%. An unsurprising outlier is Russia, where searches for travel to the USA are up 88%. New York and Boston have suffered the least while West Coast traffic like San Francisco and Las Vegas has been hit hardest.
Comparing the same period one year earlier, a decline of only 1.8% occurred (i.e., 17% decline this year, 1.8% decline over the same period last year).
Searches from Sudan dropped the most (44%) while searches from China, Denmark, Ireland, and New Zealand all dropped by more than 30%. Spain was the only country in Western Europe in which searches rose (+9%). Check out the stats for each county here.
No Impact on Pricing…Yet
Thus far, the drop in demand has not impacted pricing. It seems to me any pricing comparison would be skewed anyway with the proliferation of low-cost carriers. In light of the ban being overturned, demand has started to recover, but remains very weak.
Methodology
The data utilized for this study comes from Hopper’s real-time “shadow traffic” containing the results of consumer airfare searches. Hopper collects, from several Global Distribution System partners, ten to fifteen billion airfare price quotes every day from searches happening all across the web.
Causation v. Correlation?
The methodology appears sound and statistically significant. Still, think of the other factors that could be in play. Could the U.S. dollar’s strength also be a culprit? Indeed, the dollar has strengthened over the last year, but it actually weakened in January. It seems to be on the rebound in February, but so is demand for USA travel.
What about low fares to other places? We have certainly witnessed a boom in low-cost travel options to destinations around the world. It is conceivable that other destinations are simply more attractive at the moment.
Yet the sharp drop in such a short period presents strong evidence that the new administration and travel ban are behind a drop in traffic. The fact that searches are way down in banned countries, China, and Western Europe while up in Russia and former CIS nations all suggest politics is at play.
CONCLUSION
For the sake of the airline, hotel, and tourism industry, I trust that these numbers will not stick. For those considering a trip to the USA, I can assure you that once you get past the border it is a very pleasant place!
Correct me if I am wrong, Matthew; but the overturning of an executive order is an opportunity for the United States to show the world how its government operates — and that the checks and balances system built into the way the government operates does work.
Tourists will hopefully realize that the United States can still be a great country to visit — just as countries such as Iran can be great places to visit as well — understanding that the people are what comprises of what a country is all about and not its leader or the media.
You know the District of Columbia and how politics works much better than I do; so I am interested in what your thoughts are to my comments…
Will you feel the same way about our system when SCOTUS inevitably reverses the flawed lower court ruling? Or is it only a great system when there is a ruling you like? The activist 9th circuit likes to legislate from the bench, so as usual their ruling on a crystal clear power of the executive branch will no doubt be reversed. Leftists: be sure to get your best riot and looting outfit ready. Violent leftist activists are a much bigger risk to tourism.
And way to prop up Iran. Such a great country to visit. Aside from the threats to destroy Israel, rallies chanting death to America, the hostage taking, the UN violations, the lack of religious freedom, the lack of rights for women and homosexuals, etc. But yeah, aside from that, such a wonderful country to visit…if you can get out alive and without US taxpayer assistance, that is.
Yes — what do I know, WR?
Talk to George of TravelBloggerBuzz about Iran:
http://travelbloggerbuzz.com/so-i-traveled-to-iran-do-you-have-any-questions/
As for “SCOTUS inevitably reverses the flawed lower court ruling”, yes — I would feel the same way. Just because I do not like a ruling or the way things go does not mean that the system does not work.
By the way, I am neither left nor right…
WR +1
@Brian: You are correct — the overturning of the executive order does highlight the separation of powers and co-equal judiciary brach. There are indeed checks and balances and any well-informed foreign visitor should be able to appreciate it.
I agree with you — visit Iran and you find wonderful warm people who are welcoming of foreigners. The same is true in much of the USA.
Hopefully this slack off in foreign visitors will be temporary and not long-term.
Alternative facts. I bet travel to the USA is actually up 200% or 300%…..jk
Not really surprising there could be (this study isn’t conclusive) a small reduction in travel. Trump is wildly unpopular in most of Europe and really most of the world, especially amongst the educated classes who are likely to travel. There is no reason people can’t travel to the USA but perception has a way of affecting travel choices. It will be interesting to see how this plays out once we start getting real numbers.
This is complete BS Fake news and cherry picked stats. Seasonality will explain 90% of the pre/post election drop. Anybody with half a brain knows that looking at time series data with such infantile methodology is flawed, and likely intentionally misleading. The more relevant metric was the Y/Y change for the same period, which as you pointed out was only -1.8%. Even that can be explained by simple post election uncertainty, macro-economic changes, exchange rates, etc., not anti-Americanism or whatever anti-Trumpism the author is trying to push. But don’t let facts get in the way of a good story that makes anti-Trumpers feel smug and self righteous.
I understand a good debate of someones view. I do not see the need for your rude and mean spirited comments.
Yeah, I strongly disagreed with WR’s comments on OMAAT regarding the big 3 US airlines and subsidies, but have to agree with his takeaway that this is an insignificant change given the YoY 1.8% decline, which is quite far from the “statistically significant” language Matthew used.
Not endorsing WR’s political analysis, just that the numbers don’t back the headline here.
@Jig: I said travel searches dropped 17% this year but only 1.8% over the same period last year.
Travel didn’t drop 17% YoY. Searches dropped. Searches don’t equal seats sold!
I know for myself, I’ll do a handful of searches before buying a ticket.
@WR:
> Seasonality will explain 90% of the pre/post election drop
It is unlikely this is an issue of seasonality, especially when the drop is 17% this year versus 1.8% over the same period last year. But I hope that I am wrong … it would be very bad news if true.
I would not be surprised if the drop in tourism is authentic. There is too much uncertainty as to how the Trump travel ban will play out, and whether it could ultimately be extended to even more nations.
if you really believe these stats will result in a predictable outcome, do you remember, “Hillary in a landslide – chance of winning 92%. Mainstream medias manipulation of stats to get the result they wanted, but it didn’t happen – not even close.
Yes, good point. It was also predicted that a Trump victory would cause a steep stock market decline. How did that one play out? Trump haters will only see the data that support their hate.
No one will come to or stay away from usa on political reasons. The security of this country is far more important than what foreigners think of us.
You are of the opinion the stats are statistically significant? Really? Within a stated confidence level, statistical significance is not subject to oppinion. This deteriorates your point.
More room for me at Disneyland
If these statistics had anything to do with politics, especially anti Trump politics, why would “Sanctuary City” and well known bastion of liberal thought and deed be the least “searched for” city in the US. I really think this is a bogus study. Someone using some pretty frivolous stats to confirm their own political agenda.
WR i like your way of thinking!!! also Eric.. agree sanctuary cities are till going on and strong in their liberal ways and welcome all!! prob bogus liberal lefto study!!!