President Donald Trump’s statement that the United States will “run the country” of Venezuela, travel will flood back, here is how and why.
US Captures Maduro and His Wife, What Now?
In a night time raid that saw 150 aircraft in a coordinated apprehension effort by the US military removed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife as they sought protection in their steel-encased safe room. The people of Venezuela awoke to news via social media that the leader had been captured and removed. Maduro arrives at a New York City metropolitan detention center accompanied by DEA officials.
“Run” Venezuela
US President Donald Trump greeted the media half past 11 AM Eastern time, Saturday January 3rd, issuing an elaborate recounting of the events that led to Maduro arriving in the United States to face drug charges. Department of War Secretary Pete Hegseth, and Secretary of State, National Security Advisor, and Head of the National Archives Marco Rubio also gave remarks.
On the topic of the transfer of power, Trump stated that the US will “run the country” until a safe, proper, and judicious transition of power can take place with free and fair elections. Maduro’s Vice President Delcy Rodriguez has taken the helm for the moment and the US made no indications that she would be replaced on an interim basis. While the dramatic events dominated Venezuela news outlets, there’s been no reports of US troops stationed in the country nor any military response. It’s unclear how the US intends to run a country in Latin America without a military presence and its own political power base installed.
For the purpose of this piece, we will presume that the US will, in fact, run Venezuela and a smooth transition of power will occur sometime in the next 18-24 months. Fraught with questions, lack of detail, and likelihood as that concept may be, we must start with a basis of certainty to project the future. That does not equivocate an endorsement of the actions of the US government, an assumption of its ultimate success, nor presume the accuracy of the limited information we have.
Oil And Business Will Lead The Rush
Venezuela holds 17% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves but delivers a small fraction of that due to deteriorated infrastructure, sanctions, and lack of investment. The barrels (BBLs) that Venezuela does deliver are at a market inferior price and well below representative output of peers. For perspective, not only does Venezuela have the largest reserves (ahead of Saudi Arabia) but the US which is the largest producer in the world has just 15% of Venezuela’s supply.
Oil companies will rush into the country once it’s deemed investment-safe to do so not only from the US but from Canada, Europe, China, Russia, and even the Middle East. Infrastructure will be the first focus, improving equipment that service existing wells. But then the support will come in for ancillary business support like fiber optics, port upgrades, airports, hotels, accommodations (both homes and hotels), and eventually restaurants, bars, cars, and everything else.
Following the oil business will fill out many of the other pieces. Security services will also be a key factor.
The Diaspora Will Carry Demand
Venezuelans living abroad comprises one of the largest diasporas in the world. By comparison, India is the largest with 15.5MM living abroad, or 1.1% of the Indian population. At an estimated 7.7MM, it may be half of the Indians living abroad but still places in the top ten and accounts for a fifth of all Venezuelans since just 2014. Many of these will be coming home.
“Since 2014, 7.7 million Venezuelans or 20% of the population, have left the country, unable to afford food or seeking better opportunities abroad, according to the U.N. International Organization for Migration.
Neighboring Colombia has received the largest share of the diaspora, with 2.8 million Venezuelans, followed by 1.7 million in Peru, according to the R4V platform, a group of regional NGOs assisting migrants and refugees from Venezuela set up by the U.N. migration agency.In Peru’s capital Lima, dozens of Venezuelans gathered, many wrapped in their country’s flag, to mark Maduro’s deposition.Venezuelan migrant Milagros Ortega, whose parents are still in Venezuela, said she hoped to go back.“Knowing that my dad was alive to see the fall of Nicolas Maduro is very emotional. I would like to see his face,” she said. – Reuters
Lasting Solution Or Flash In The Pan?
None of this speaks to tourism demand. If stability is delivered and investment can grow, it’s not just major cities that will see progress but opportunity destinations like Isla Margarita can stand out in ways that Cartagena (a personal favorite). Cruise ships are an option too with nearby ports in the ABC islands and the heavy tourism draw in Trinidad and Tobago.
That will take time and investors into long term projects will likely wait and see not only what the US “running” the country looks like in practice, but the replacements that follow. Will a business-friendly environment follow? Will it deliver security that stable destinations demand? Will there be a replacement government that is more or less the same as the last? Only time – a lot of time – will tell.
Financial stability will also become a key part of the story. In this post from 2017, the Café Con Leche index from Bloomberg, (an adaptation of real-time inflation from the global Big Mac index) showed inflation of 1155%. That skyrocketed in subsequent years by as much as 100,000% in 2018 alone. It’s so out of hand it’s become largely incalculable. If the US is able to stabilize the currency, that alone would position it as investable from the outside.
Conclusion
The Venezuela news cycle has not yet crossed 24 hours at the time of writing since Maduro was captured and still fewer since President Trump held his press conference. We know nothing for certain. However, there are markers and indications of how the global economy will respond to the shift in government. Travel will be a leading sector in Venezuela’s recovery and help shape the new country that evolves from the current state of disorder and chaos.
What do you think?
Major “Mission Accomplished” vibes here.
@1990 – I couldn’t agree more. Secretary (of however many jobs he has now) Rubio stated this morning there is no military presence in the country. No idea how you “run” a country with its remaining government and military in place without a presence. No details provided.
Yup. The ‘Don-roe’ doctrine seems a little half-baked. Then again, Maduro is literally supposed to be in federal court in downtown NYC tomorrow, so this is gonna get spicy. Already saw the news nations lining up in Chinatown. 2026 is gonna be a wild ride, for sure.
Man, way to gloss over all the illegality, acts of war, and innocent people killed, let alone the fact these foreign oil companies are coming in to pillage the country. But sure yeah travel …
@Ryan – You must have missed the line: “That does not equivocate an endorsement of the actions of the US government, an assumption of its ultimate success, nor presume the accuracy of the limited information we have.” As you note, this is a travel blog, not a political one and there will be significant travel implications.
The legality of his apprehension is certainly dubious though politicians on both sides of the aisle unequivocally agreed as recently as December of 2024 that Maduro should be removed from power and the Biden-Harris administration first placed a $25MM bounty on his capture. Official acts of war must be voted on by congress but any US President has the ability to use the military under the War Powers Act for 60 days (extendable by 30 days) so long as they inform congress of troop deployment within 48 hours. Every US President extending back 45 years to Reagan has used the War Powers Act in some capacity for troop deployment and activity without a war resolution – that’s all four Republicans and all three Democrats.
More than 60 nations dispute Maduro’s presidency including the entire EU, Canada, the US, with Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia offering mediation services but not recognition. That’s twice as many countries as those who do not recognize Israel (29), and nearly twice those who do not recognize Palestine (36.)
Speaking to your “innocent people killed” note, there’s no confirmed deaths on the US side of the operation and unconfirmed amounts on the Venezuelan side ranging from 0-40 according to social media and state media. Amnesty International (https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/americas/south-america/venezuela/report-venezuela/) cites a report that the country ranks lowest in the World Justice Project Rule of Law Index 2024. Dissident deaths in the last decade are in the tens of thousands though I am not sure which innocent people killed you’re referring to.
As for the oil and gas companies coming to pillage the country, there’s no question that foreign oil & gas entities will enter, invest, and take profits but also provide local economic advancement. In 2024 following an investment from Chevron, Venezuelan output increased more than 10% over the prior year but remains at a staggeringly low level of 800,000-900,000 barrels per day (bpd.) For comparison, as outlined in the post, the US reserves are less than 15% of Venezuela’s yet US output is 16x that volume. On a daily basis, Venezuela produces 0.00024% of its reserves while the US produces 0.29% of its proven reserves. In the US, the oil and gas industry generates 10 million jobs and a GDP contribution of 8% or $1.7 trillion in addition to $1.6 trillion from 2012 to 2025 in tax revenue. In Venezuela, oil and gas accounts for 90% of exports but earning just $21-24bn annually and production has dropped 75% from the 1990s due to equipment disrepair. Without foreign investment, it will fall further because devoid of foreign investment as it has largely been for the last decade, the drop has been near free fall. But sure, yeah pillage…
This is exactly the arrogant US attitude people take issue with. How can you not understand that it is not up to the US what they do or do not do in Venezuela. What is it to you that they mine however many percentages of their oil reserves? It is asinine to bring up dissidents in the face of the kidnapping of a sitting head of state and his wife (!). Imagine if some country kidnapped Obama due to his handling of Afghanistan….
Keep crying Luxembourg you can’t handle the win
@Ryan what innocent people died, you sound as dumb as you look
Not an oil expert by any means, but everything I have read by people who are says that investment in Venezuela is unlikely at current and expected oil prices. For now the juice isn’t worth the (tens of billions and years of investment) squeeze.
… and likely would be accompanied by an offsetting decrease in US-based exploration and development due to cost differences.
“Maduro’s Vice President Delcy has taken the helm for the moment and the US made no indications that she would be replaced on an interim basis.”
The name Rodríguez is too dificult to wrote or you know her just by a first name?
It is obvious that Trump does not allow Maria Machado “to run” a country due to the Nobel peace prize win. Imagine those two standing together when one of those thinks that only he should got the prize and could never get over it!
Putin: Special Military Operation
Trump: Extraordinary Military Operation
Trump: We do need those energy resources.
I do not wonder when US court proves Maduro and especially her wife not guilty. There is always a chance to get released from prison when new POTUS comes. Ask from the current president of Honduras, he will confirm it.
The administration can’t run this country properly. How is it supposed to run another one that has much bigger problems than ours?
Travel boomed in Iraq after saddam was removed from power. Didn’t it?
They will find the former VP and new President is just like Maduro. If they want change, it would be to put the real winner of the election into the Presidency.
Technically, the FBI captured Maduro. He is a wanted man. The grand jury in NY agreed that there is reason to charge him. So for those who are opposed to Trump, are you opposed to putting criminals on trial? Should criminals be allowed immunity?
The problem I see is that the US is too weak to run Venezuela. It takes a lot of military might, of which the US is lacking. True, the US military is strong but not strong enough. Still kind of weak. Strong enough to blow up a bridge but too weak to occupy a country.
Back to travel, I really enjoyed Venezuela 20 years ago. Isla Margarita, Ciudad Bolivar, Angel Falls, Los Llanos, the Andes… long lines at ATMs that never seemed to have any money. All part of the adventure.
It’s an interesting travel-and-policy outlook that argues if the U.S. really does “run” Venezuela and help stabilize it during a transitional period, demand for travel especially from Venezuelans abroad returning to visit friends and family, rebuild ties, and explore investment opportunities could grow substantially and help kick start sectors like tourism, aviation, hospitality, and regional tourism over the long term even though current official advisories still strongly warn against travel due to security and diplomatic uncertainty.