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Home  >  Airlines • Coronavirus  >  Did Airlines Overreact To The Coronavirus?
AirlinesCoronavirus

Did Airlines Overreact To The Coronavirus?

Kyle Stewart Posted onJune 7, 2020September 13, 2021 57 Comments
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With signs that the economy is recovering faster than expected, did airlines overreact to the coronavirus crisis?


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Initially, Perhaps the Airlines Were Too Slow

It was hard to gauge how isolated or expansive the coronavirus would be when initial spreads began. The world has never responded in such a manner and airlines were caught off guard. Even as they slashed schedules by 90%, load factors remained at a fraction of capacity.

Aircraft continued to move around the world with few passengers even as hours were slashed for employees. Financing deals did not come quick enough, but this is all very clear in hindsight.

Aircraft Retirements, Staff Furloughs Cut Deep

When the airlines saw the severity of the situation, the changes they made were drastic and severe. Staff furloughs that appear to be long term involve as many as 30% of airline employees. American Airlines expedited the retirement of 757, 767, A330-300s, E-190s, and some 737 aircraft. Delta retired 777-200s that they just put $100MM into refurbishing last year.

The long-lasting changes will reshape the fleet of carriers that were previously close to capacity. Some of the furloughed staff may come back, some will not. The same is true of aircraft that have been parked.

A V-Shaped Economic Recovery Looks Likely

Some economists now believe that a V-shaped recovery looks likely. This week, fewer unemployment claims were made than expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (a marker for publicly traded companies) hit an all-time high the week of Valentine’s Day (Feb 14th, 2020) at 29,398.08. It reached a three-and-a-half-year low close the week of March 20th at 19,173.98 or a drop of more than 34%.

DJI V-Shape Recovery
DJI V-Shape Recovery

On Friday, June 5th, 2020 the DJI closed at 27,076.79 or just 7.9% lower than the all-time high. The US economy, prior to COVID-19’s expansion domestically and across the globe, was running at the most efficient levels in recent history, unemployment was at 50-year lows among other metrics.

It’s worth noting that this type of recovery was what the American people, lawmakers, and businesses wanted. It’s the exact reason why a $2.2 trillion relief package was put in place at the expense of the US taxpayer. A V-shaped recovery was always the plan.

Did Airlines Overreact?

If the economy, in fact, recovers in a V-shape (sharp drop, sharp incline) airlines could be caught off-guard. While American’s 767s and 757s were slated to go away relatively soon anyway, the Delta 777-200 retirement seems like an overreaction. Delta’s retirement of the MD-88s and MD-90s may have been overdue from a customer perspective but those aircraft were also the workhorse of the airline from mid-sized cities to hub bases but if recovery is incredibly strong, not only will the airlines return to near full capacity but they will do it with dramatically fewer aircraft.

Teachers Sue Delta
Image credit: BriYYZ/Flickr CC 2.0

Cynics of the airline business may see staff furloughs during these unprecedented times as a way to justifiably remove more expensive employees from the payroll and when hiring returns, save money on new hires.

Conclusion

Some of the decisions made in the wake of the coronavirus crisis made sense. To honor their contractual commitments, carriers had to fly empty planes on routes for a time. They had to find ways to trim up the carrier and it still remains unknown just how the recovery will go. However, it feels as though airlines may have swerved too far to the correction side given the limited nature of the shutdown and I wonder what consequences this may have for flyers, businesses, and carriers alike. If a carrier can’t scale with demand, will United flyers become Delta flyers? Will fares skyrocket? Will new carriers arise by picking up cheap second-hand equipment and furloughed employees to fill the gaps left by the behemoths?

What do you think? Did airlines overreact? Do you think any of the long-lasting changes were opportunistic or good decisions in a tough environment?

Previous Article Flexibility Is Key As The World Re-opens
Next Article A Reader’s Ill-Advised Trip to COVID-19 Ravaged Europe

About Author

Kyle Stewart

Kyle is a freelance travel writer with contributions to Time, the Washington Post, MSNBC, Yahoo!, Reuters, Huffington Post, MapHappy, Live And Lets Fly and many other media outlets. He is also co-founder of Scottandthomas.com, a travel agency that delivers "Travel Personalized." He focuses on using miles and points to provide a premium experience for his wife and daughter. Email: sherpa@thetripsherpa.com

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57 Comments

  1. ed lewis Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 10:55 am

    impossible to know at this point.

    • Brian Reply
      June 7, 2020 at 1:43 pm

      From a medical standpoint, no, they absolutely did not overreact. It’s impossible to tell from a financial standpoint.

      This virus likes close spaces. It’s very efficient at tearing through things like airplanes, nursing homes and crowds. I can confidently say this because I’m currently still standing in front, as an emergency physician, fighting it on a daily basis.

      I know everybody’s pissed, because travel has essentially been shut down. I’ve lost three long-haul trips and a Caribbean trip because of it (Australia, Italy, and South Africa plus St. Martin). But, considering the alternative from a medical standpoint, it (Stopping everything to flatten the curve) was absolutely the right thing to do.

      • Beth Reply
        June 7, 2020 at 6:53 pm

        Brian: My son is an Infectious Disease and his GF, an anesthesiologist. Both validate your response.

  2. Sven Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 11:02 am

    As always, if the title of an article is a question, the answer is always “No”

    • Kyle Stewart Reply
      June 7, 2020 at 11:23 am

      As you might have imagined, I somewhat disagree.

  3. Gary Leff Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 11:03 am

    Even a V-shaped recovery (which remains something of a long shot) leaves the economy off of trend for some time. A V-shaped recovery may be unevent across sectors. Bear in mind that the stock market’s recovery itself has been uneven with a handful of companies capturing an outsized portion of gains with many sectors losing substantially.

    The economy may recover and air travel would still lag where it was in 2019. International travel will lag domestic travel. And even if some business trips come back what about large conventions and trade shows? Those are planned several years in advance, and people attend largely based on who else will be there so it’s a coorindation problem that takes time to sort out.

    To the original question, did airlines overreact? You hint at the answer, in some sense they underreacted, failing to recognize quickly enough the gravity of the situation. Scott Kirby at United was the most out ahead of this and he planned based on revenue down ‘only’ 70% in April, 40% in July, and back to 80% of prior levels come November/December. https://viewfromthewing.com/holy-smokes-united-planning-for-revenue-down-70-domestic-net-bookings-already-down-70/

    • Kyle Stewart Reply
      June 7, 2020 at 11:23 am

      I agree, Gary, that international will lag domestic and neither will be back to where they were in 2019 which is arguably, “peak travel.” However, with the massive cuts that Delta and American took to their fleet and staff, how far can they really recover before they have to restore them to the fleet, replace them, or ultimately lose marketshare?

      • Jason Reply
        June 7, 2020 at 11:26 am

        Keep in mind that delta had already planned to get rid of the md80s this year anyway. Delta is well positioned for domestic recovery. Which will take a few years.

        • Kyle Stewart Reply
          June 7, 2020 at 12:09 pm

          And the 767s/757s weren’t long off for American either, however, the 777-200 retirements following their massive reinvestment doesn’t align with the same plans.

  4. Jason Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 11:04 am

    One of the biggest drivers of air travel- business travel- essentially evaporated. Government travel- and the US government is still the largest purchaser if travel- also evaporated. Until these come back- and so far there’s very little of it coming back anytime soon (most government agencies are not permitting travel), and until people are back in their offices- the biggest drivers of airline flights won’t be there. Sure- people are going to the beach and you’re seeing some demand there. But until corporate and government workers return to their offices and resume business travel, you’re going to see way reduced airline schedules. No evidence that any of that is returning any time soon.

    • Kyle Stewart Reply
      June 7, 2020 at 11:15 am

      Stronger balance sheets will change this, we are only beginning to see these signs but they are there. It may take 3, 6, even 9 months but that won’t replace workhorses like the MD-88 for Delta.

      • Jason Reply
        June 7, 2020 at 11:24 am

        Air travel volume in the United States took 3years to get back to where it was after 9/11. And then we didn’t have double digit unemployment. While things will eventually improve, I don’t think it’ll be anywhere nearly as quickly as you suggest it may be.

  5. Brian Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 11:20 am

    Kyle, for once I agree with the points you are making in this article.

    • UA-NYC Reply
      June 7, 2020 at 11:29 am

      Haven’t seen many credible economists and others suggest “a V shaped recovery is likely”. Come on man. Entire industries have been decimated.

      • Kyle Stewart Reply
        June 7, 2020 at 11:57 am

        There’s the one listed in the post, here’s another: https://cnb.cx/3cHTU0H, and another from CNBC https://cnb.cx/3dSs1nK, this one from a different author citing three economists and a handful of other industry experts, and Barron’s citing Morgan Stanley’s chief economist stating that economic data points are “increasing our confidence in a sharp V-shaped recovery.” https://bitly.com/2XDn6BI. Interestingly, the same article goes on to say that job recoveries have been slower than thought necessary to create a V-recovery… but the article was also written days before the highest jobs gain (2.5MM) since 1939.

        Whether the V-shape recovery happens outside the stock market is anyone’s guess, but plenty of economists have stated it looks possible, plausible or even likely. It may not be even, however. I, for one, don’t think commercial property will return strongly as many businesses have discovered that workers can be just as productive from home and won’t expand physical offices. Retail brick and mortar has been struggling for a long time, this may be an area that remains decimated – but it wasn’t strong before.

        There are some that have suggested economies won’t recover for half a decade, that it will be a “U” or a “Nike swoosh”-shaped recovery (free marketing for them) and they could be right as well which is why I included the DJI profile which looks like a “V” to me.

  6. Dave @ MilesTalk Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 11:28 am

    I agree the airlines largely didn’t react quickly enough on the way down. But I disagree with most of the rest of the premise.

    Most importantly, we almost certainly aren’t in a V shaped economy. It’s easy to mistake the stock market for the economy but they aren’t the same.

    There’s a ton of speculation in the stock market right now along with a few leaders (and speculative buying) seeing most of the gains. Look at Hertz – up 845% when the bankruptcy may wipe out shareholders even if Hertz survives. Most of the buyers are on Robinhood and new to trading (don’t understand risk).

    Unemployment ticked unenthusiastically upwards which, while better than worse is hardly a recovery.

    Yes, many are chomping at the bit to travel but all it will take is one bad second wave and it will all shut down again.

    It will be a while before things are normal again but, on topic, it’s almost certainly not going to be a V shaped recovery.

    Airlines will recover, but they’ll be burning cash for a while. It’s entirely possible speculators will bid airline stocks up to pre-crash levels in no time – but equally possibly that they rise only to get sold off sharply again as the increased revenues greatly lag stock gains.

    • Kyle Stewart Reply
      June 7, 2020 at 12:07 pm

      As I stated in another post, the stock market (even choosing one particular exchange) is not necessarily the only indicator. But your jobs claim is inaccurate as jobs have recovered at a faster pace than any month since 1939. Here’s a post from the New York Times to support the strong jobs growth: https://nyti.ms/3gVWjIi

      We agree that airlines will be burning some cash for a while, but disagree that their rise will only be a result of speculators. Gary stated that international will lag domestic (I agree) and that conventions and conferences will take a bit to reschedule (some will, others will rebound opportunistically in my opinion) but PPP loans have given many businesses I am familiar with the latitude to get back on the road sooner than in a normal recession.

  7. Richard Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 11:30 am

    No, they didn’t, and if anything, they still haven’t. the number of people to be employed in the business of flying planes will need to be less than 75% of what it is now for at least 2 years.

  8. Gene Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 11:55 am

    @ Kyle — I think you’ve been drinking too much Trump cool-aid. In the U.S., new Coronavirus cases are 20,000 per day and deaths are 1,000 per day (pretty much in the same ballpark as they have been for months). There is much delusion and wishful thinking abound. Things have not really improved except cases are spread out more uniformly across the country rather than mostly in NYC. There is no REAL V-shape recovery except for the stock market, and I’m betting that doesn’t hold. Once Trump is voted out of office, reality will set in, tax cuts for the wealthy and big corporations will be on the chopping block (amen, hallelujah!), and sadly things will be hard for 2021. This is the bitter pill that American must swallow because the reality is that Donald Trump is a far greater threat to American than COVID-19. Removing him from office is WAY, WAY more important than a vaccine.

    • Kyle Stewart Reply
      June 7, 2020 at 12:17 pm

      @Gene, I appreciate your comments but need to correct your “deaths per day (pretty much in the same ballpark as they have been for months)” statement, and that “things have not really improved.” According to NBC News, cases peaked in May at just shy of 3,000 daily deaths. https://nbcnews.to/2MzXQFV The chart they use shows a downward trajectory.

      But there’s a lot of assumptions here and I never once mentioned President Trump. You’re assuming he will be voted out of office (polls suggest that will be the case if the election were held today), that his Administration’s tax cuts will remain in place following his assumed departure from office (unlikely if Biden is elected), and that a vaccine will arrive. If the flu was any sort of indicator, even a vaccine will not necessarily eliminate millions of infections nor the deaths/hospitalizations associated therein.

      • stc Reply
        June 7, 2020 at 12:47 pm

        Remember that those polls showing Biden winning by mile are from the same pollsters that said Clinton would wipe out Trump. Why do they deserve credibility?

        • Gene Reply
          June 7, 2020 at 3:08 pm

          @ stc — Because Trump has proven himself to be a racist psychopath.

    • WR2 Reply
      June 7, 2020 at 12:27 pm

      Interesting how you seem to blame all bad events on Trump, but let’s look at what actually happened:. The police brutality that sparked the protests occurred in the most leftist city, in the most leftist state (the only state that Reagan did not carry in his reelection). Trump’s fault? The ones behind the looting and rioting, which resulted in death and destruction of property, were all extreme leftists, and their actions will of course hurt those most vulnerable, in lost jobs due to the destruction of businesses, as well as the loss of future investment in those communities. Trump’s fault that Antifa chooses violence to push their radical agenda?

      Coronavirus started in China, they lied, covered it up, and unleashed it on the world, yet you blame Trump… because that’s all you know how to do. When he shut down flights from China and Europe, the left called it an overreaction. Then later they say Trump didn’t do enough. Which is it? Leftist govs implemented the harshest lockdowns, going to court repeatedly to defend them, yet when the protests started, they suddenly forgot all about the necessity of the lockdowns.

      You pander to the most extreme and dangerous people that want to eliminate police. I can’t imagine a more stupid policy, but I sure hope some liberal enclaves try that out! I’m getting my popcorn ready. Yet Trump is more dangerous than these idiots?

      Americans are smarter than you think, and smarter than you.

      • UA-NYC Reply
        June 7, 2020 at 3:52 pm

        Must be interesting to be on the wrong side of history – see you at the polls!

  9. bobloblaw Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 12:41 pm

    I like this blog, except on the days that Kyle Stewart posts. Jobs gains were impressive and unexpected by most economists, but let’s not ignore the “misclassification” admitted by the Labor Dept. Hard to get a clear picture. Recovery is going to take time and there will be lots of fits and starts.

    • Nate nate Reply
      June 8, 2020 at 12:23 am

      There is a definite change in tone and quality on those days. But I think it may only be Sundays.

      Showing a graph of the DJI as evidence of a V shape recovery seems like a red herring. First, companies are learning how to use technology to reduce travel, so just because industrial companies are recovering, doesn’t mean travel will. Second, there is a DJ transports index that includes 6 of the largest US airlines. That would be a better proxy.

  10. truth Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 12:51 pm

    if any of the experts on correct (which they have not been so far) ) we will see MASSIVE spkes in Wuhan virus in the next 10 -14 days in several major cities (Washington, Philadelphia) from hundreds of thousands of people spendng the day in clsoe proximity. if no spike, you know the so-called experts are full of baloney.

    • bobloblaw Reply
      June 7, 2020 at 5:40 pm

      “So-called expert” is such a cringeworthy Trumpian GOP phrase. It’s tough to model a Novel virus that we are still rapidly learning about. The experts who have spent their whole life in this arena are doing they best they can. They won’t always be right or close to it because we still have a lot to learn.

  11. James Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 1:01 pm

    Kyle, I 100% agree with the points you raise in this article. I suspect a lot of demand is suppressed right now simply because routes — especially direct routes — no longer exist. The coronavirus is — I imagine for most people — less scary than the 9/11 terrorist attacks and I imagine aviation will recover quite quickly. If they can, airlines may want to consider bringing back some of the planes they planned to retire. They also may want to think about how to bring back staff as quickly as possible. I have a friend who works for a major airline and he told me the leadership is extremely optimistic about the recovery and that all of his flights are almost full. Airlines misjudged demand and now they need to urgently adjust. If/when Americans can return to Europe and Japan, there will also be incredible latent demand. Airlines need to quickly reverse course or flyers are going to be enraged about lack of supply and high fares.

  12. MeanMeosh Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 1:20 pm

    Not buying it completely. No, I don’t subscribe to Paul Krugman’s theory of doctored numbers (funny how he mocked conservatives for the same nonsense during the Obama admin, but it’s all cool now), but there are some things that just don’t add up. My office, a family office run by old school business types that didn’t even believe in work from home office until April, is running at ~1/3 capacity until Labor Day as we allow for work at home for anyone who wants it. All of the midsize and large accounting firms I know have cancelled all in-person training until at least 12/31, and are leaning hard on clients like us to not ask for on-site visits. I think there are sectors which are recovering faster than expected, perhaps due to PPP loans, but I just don’t see the evidence of a V-shaped recovery in the travel industry. I still think it’s going to get real ugly in October when the bailout money runs out.

    • Kyle Stewart Reply
      June 7, 2020 at 1:31 pm

      That could be the case, but traders seem more optimistic.

      • MeanMeosh Reply
        June 7, 2020 at 1:41 pm

        I get that, and one thing I’ve learned (often the hard way) is that the markets are efficient for a reason. Something just seems illogical here. I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

  13. George Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 2:52 pm

    Our company ($5M rev) has not seen a v-shaped recovery. It has been vertical.
    Sometime in mid May, the tap just turned ON.

    We are above 2019 sales figures, and tracking to our goal for 2020 Pre-Virus.
    (no, we don’t sell household items, and stuff like that, it’s purely recreational)

    We didn’t fire any staff (we talked about it, but decided to hold the line, managers all took pay cuts, front line staff carried on at full pay every day)

    We hired more staff two weeks ago, and more this week.

    —
    Based on that, and other companies in our industry experiencing very strong bounce backs – we’re starting to think 2020 will end up being a record year for us sales wise.

    Airlines had a tough call, and yes, it would seem they over-reacted a lot.
    Delta 777 thing to me was the key one.

    That said, business travel is down in the toilet. It’s not the number of seats, it’s the price those seats were getting from business travel.

    International business class… last minute domestic refundable fares.
    That’s where the airlines have been hurt.

    Obviously, the entire world seems to have massively over-reacted to this virus.
    Good news is, in the last week, most people have mostly forgotten about it.

    I think as the news tries to make it a story again, people will say ‘wait a minute, all those protestors didn’t get the virus.. and, uhm, all these states that opened in May, they are fine? What exactly did we close the economy for?’

    But, airlines are stuck waiting for businesses to ok travel.
    And, all those businesses are a) virtue signaling they care about their employees health b) avoiding lawsuits.

    Once the threat of THAT goes away, hopefully by the end of June… I think the taps will turn on.
    Maybe July or August, and at least by the Fall, business travel will be rolling again.

    When we will know if the airlines made a bad call.
    Based on my experience owning a business during this… they very much did overreact.

    • Gene Reply
      June 7, 2020 at 3:06 pm

      @ George — You continue to be an idiot.

      • George Reply
        June 7, 2020 at 3:29 pm

        *shrug*

        I’ve kept my entire staff employed, our business is growing, we’re hiring, and I’m traveling the world full time to visit every country in my 30s

        By your definition, if that’s being an idiot… call me an idiot every day of the week 🙂

        Sometimes Gene, the story the media tells you isn’t the truth.

        You might want to look into that, or try thinking for yourself.
        The world is passing people like you by while you wail on the sidelines about the actions of everyone else.

        Sorry dude, I’m not playing ball in your sad world. I’m enjoying life, and lifting people up every day in my community who appreciate me doing the same.

        Your fear doesn’t inspire anyone Gene, it just makes you sound like a grumpy old man afraid of the future, logic or reason that doesn’t jive with the way you want other people to live.

        It’s 2020 dude, that type of thinking is old hat man, tune up your radar Gene!
        Life is passing you by while you yell at clouds and try to tell other people what to do.

        • Gene Reply
          June 7, 2020 at 4:01 pm

          @ George — Dude, life has certainly not passed me by, nor is it passing me by. I’ve already flown 6 million miles and have been to every corner of this great world in the last 17 years. Right now, I am enjoying doing something different while taking a break from traveling, so I can live to fly the next 6 million and see the next 100 hundred countries. I do think for myself, which is why I point out that getting rid of Donald Trump and the Republicans who support him is the most urgent crisis facing America, not the Coronavirus. Lastly, it is quite distasteful that you constantly brag about the success of your business. That is information that wise, humble people keep to themselves.

  14. BDAGuy Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 3:06 pm

    Any reasonable person wants the world economy to bounce back and for all to proposer, but let’s not confuse the stock market and the economy, they are two very distinct things. Companies are benefiting from incredibly low interest rates subsidized by the tax payers – not necessarily a bad thing, but an artificial thing, nonetheless. Did airlines overreact? Perhaps but owing to the stunning speed of COVID-19’s spread and the shocking death rates airlines hedged for extreme caution which isn’t such a bad thing; besides, the damage has been done so its sort of pointless to pontificate.

    • George Reply
      June 7, 2020 at 3:35 pm

      *shocking death rates???* Good grief, hyperbole much???

      400,000 people died in almost 7 months.
      In that same time period, almost 35,000,000 people (yes, 35million) people died of natural causes.
      It’s 1.1% of all total deaths in the last 7 months, from Covid-19.

      If 1.1% actually shocks you… you’re extremely bad at math….
      That means, 98.9% of everyone else that died in the last 7 months… died of SOMETHING else.

      Does *that* shock you too? Or do you just care about the 1%?

      Also, the Federal Reserve fueled the 2008 bubble, and they are sure fueling the next one.
      You can vote for the same parties that LOVE the Fed having interest rates at 0%, or, try to vote for change. But, don’t complain about it, BOTH parties LOVE printing money and artificially low rates that fuel indiscriminate speculation.

      • bobloblaw Reply
        June 7, 2020 at 5:38 pm

        You must be a sociopath. Most of those 400k deaths are in excess of the baseline other natural deaths.

  15. Ak Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 3:28 pm

    The title of the article should be does Kyle rhyme with Denial?

    A fairly delusional article.

    • Kyle Stewart Reply
      June 7, 2020 at 4:28 pm

      @Ak – Specifics? Was there a source you disagreed with or a particular thought process?

      • AK Reply
        June 7, 2020 at 5:26 pm

        thought process, funny.

        we will let the next 12 months decide rather than you trying to convince me or vice versa.

        • Kyle Stewart Reply
          June 7, 2020 at 5:39 pm

          That’s totally fair.

  16. Alan Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 3:30 pm

    Sorry, but no, airlines did not overreact at all. People are absolutely elated by TSA numbers that are only down 85% YoY, and– WOW!– AA is flying more than 50% of their July summer schedule! The airline industry is good to go; bring back the MDs!

    The only conceivable way those numbers look good is compared to April and May. Foreign travel is basically impossible except for a tiny subset of people. Major corporations won’t be flying for business until 2021, and large trade fairs will be significantly modified or cancelled for the foreseeable future. A massive segment of customers will be gone for many months to come, so the industry won’t be able to get anywhere near 100% of pre-Covid demand for at least a year. Just because $AAL is now hovering around $20 and TPG flew again, doesn’t mean there is anything but a glass a little bit full/mostly empty. I do not know how you could spin Corona as “better than expected” for the airline industry.

    • Kyle Stewart Reply
      June 7, 2020 at 4:27 pm

      LOL @Alan, I don’t follow TPG but wish him well on his travels. All of the traffic numbers you’re talking about are for travel today but could change tomorrow, next month, next year or three years from now. My point was that the carriers have moved ahead retirement plans and made long term changes to their staff for something that is already showing signs of rapid response. Yes, today the numbers are down 85% YoY and yes, major corporations may not return to flying until 2021 – but that’s less than six months from now. Spending $100MM on plane refurbishments last year and then retiring those aircraft (especially if you’re right and business flying returns in six months) is incredibly short-sighted.

      • MaKr Reply
        June 7, 2020 at 4:32 pm

        Yup, 2021 is now less than six months away…

  17. MaKr Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 4:28 pm

    God bless,smh… It’s Clickbait Sunday on this blog. Every week it’s the same – six days of well researched posts and then one day of nonsensical, poorly thought out opinions designed to aggravate anybody who engages in critical thinking and possibly written in bad faith… And judging by the number of comments on Kyle’s posts, we all fall for this EVERY WEEK

    • Kyle Stewart Reply
      June 7, 2020 at 4:31 pm

      Lol – what specifically do you disagree with? Is there a specific source you found as factually inaccurate or just disagree with the conclusion? You’ve just written five lines of comments without addressing anything for which you have an issue.

      • MaKr Reply
        June 7, 2020 at 4:46 pm

        Here are your three points of “evidence”

        1)”Some economists now believe a V-shaped recovery is likely”… But not most. And one link does not constitute data…

        2)The stock market doesn’t correlate to the economy as a whole, it merely reflects that the worst case scenarios of late February/early March look exceedingly unlikely…

        3)A single jobs number that wasn’t as devastating as predictions expected.

        Considering that the stock market is still well off highs, unemployment numbers are still at critically high levels, and (your number, don’t know if it’s true) air traffic is down 85% year over year, I’d say a V-shaped recovery, in which there is a rapid return to previous levels of activity, is not supported.

        Finally, there’s the basic fact that the pandemic that induced this global shutdown is still burning and hasn’t been solved…

        Let’s not forget that what we see today reflects the fact that two weeks ago, restrictions were in place everywhere. Let’s see where case numbers go in a month but to answer your headline… NO, they didn’t and I believe even you don’t either, which is why I wrote that

        • Kyle Stewart Reply
          June 7, 2020 at 4:55 pm

          While this was a link-heavy post, I try to avoid making every statement linked to three or four sources as you might imagine. Another reader raised similar doubt about economists still foreseeing a V-recovery so I addressed it in another comment which I will include here:

          “There’s the one listed in the post, here’s another: https://cnb.cx/3cHTU0H, and another from CNBC https://cnb.cx/3dSs1nK, this one from a different author citing three economists and a handful of other industry experts, and Barron’s citing Morgan Stanley’s chief economist stating that economic data points are “increasing our confidence in a sharp V-shaped recovery.” https://bitly.com/2XDn6BI. Interestingly, the same article goes on to say that job recoveries have been slower than thought necessary to create a V-recovery… but the article was also written days before the highest jobs gain (2.5MM) since 1939.

          Whether the V-shape recovery happens outside the stock market is anyone’s guess, but plenty of economists have stated it looks possible, plausible or even likely. It may not be even, however. I, for one, don’t think commercial property will return strongly as many businesses have discovered that workers can be just as productive from home and won’t expand physical offices. Retail brick and mortar has been struggling for a long time, this may be an area that remains decimated – but it wasn’t strong before.

          There are some that have suggested economies won’t recover for half a decade, that it will be a “U” or a “Nike swoosh”-shaped recovery (free marketing for them) and they could be right as well which is why I included the DJI profile which looks like a “V” to me.”

          To your point that the stock market is not the entire economy (I agree) and here is that comment:

          “As I stated in another post, the stock market (even choosing one particular exchange) is not necessarily the only indicator. But your jobs claim is inaccurate as jobs have recovered at a faster pace than any month since 1939. Here’s a post from the New York Times to support the strong jobs growth: https://nyti.ms/3gVWjIi

          We agree that airlines will be burning some cash for a while, but disagree that their rise will only be a result of speculators. Gary stated that international will lag domestic (I agree) and that conventions and conferences will take a bit to reschedule (some will, others will rebound opportunistically in my opinion) but PPP loans have given many businesses I am familiar with the latitude to get back on the road sooner than in a normal recession.”

          And to whether or not coronavirus has been solved, I’ve never stated that it was. You may have inferred such, but that’s not in the piece.

          • UA-NYC
            June 7, 2020 at 8:46 pm

            There are also a tiny tiny minority of scientists globally who deny climate change/global warming…but you can likely fine links to their work too.

  18. MaKr Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 4:58 pm

    I know you didn’t, but my point was that a pandemic-induced recession won’t be resolved until the pandemic is

  19. Matt Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 6:06 pm

    Repeat After Me: The Markets Are Not the Economy

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/business/stock-market-economy-coronavirus.html

  20. Paolo Reply
    June 7, 2020 at 6:41 pm

    @Matt
    So true. The stimulus was designed specifically for this eventuality: protect and support big business and , despite a few chicken feed bones thrown elsewhere, everyone else left to suffer.
    Massive, structural unemployment, soup kitchens, homelessness , forced poverty, working poor…and the worst of it yet to come.
    The ‘forgotten’ men and women who voted for Trump are collateral damage in this shameless determination to protect the big end of town ( accompanied by the usual reliance on limp and discredited “trickledown “ arguments from Reaganomics.

  21. Michael Govito Reply
    July 1, 2020 at 10:25 pm

    Until western airlines cane legitimately compete with luxurious state owned
    Airline in Asia and Middle East who don’t have the same profit return expectations QoQ the Americans will be subpar. Qatar, Emirates Korean to name a few

  22. Michael Reply
    July 1, 2020 at 10:29 pm

    American Airline companies were designed to expand our intellectual and financial capital to our eager partners around the world.

  23. Pingback: Airline Supply Shortages On The Horizon - Franc Advisor

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The new United Polaris Lounge at Washington Dulles The new United Polaris Lounge at Washington Dulles is the most beautiful of all Polaris Lounges. Stay tuned for a detailed look and many more photos on the blog tomorrow. Well done @united.
@malaysiaairlines just announced it would retire i @malaysiaairlines just announced it would retire its A380 fleet. While not surprising, it is sad to see the growing list of carriers retiring this superjumbo jet. On Malaysia Airlines, I flew the #A380 once from Kuala Lumpur (KUL) to London (LHR) and had the entire first class cabin to myself (full review on the blog). It was a beautiful flight that I will always remember.
Welcome to @fly_bur @aveloair! I am so excited tha Welcome to @fly_bur @aveloair! I am so excited that a new carrier, Avelo, has launched, especially from an airport just 12 minutes from my home!
I greatly miss the @lufthansa #747-8 at @flylaxair I greatly miss the @lufthansa #747-8 at @flylaxairport. Hopefully this summer it will return.

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#Lufthansa #FirstClass #747 #747-8 #StarAlliance #Miles #Points
I recently spent a weekend at the @ventanabigsur. I recently spent a weekend at the @ventanabigsur. This is not only a lovely, all-inclusive resort, but one of the best properties to use your @hyatt World of Hyatt points.
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#Hyatt #BigSur #California #WorldofHyatt #CA-1 #Points #Hotels
In terms of a spacious first class product, the @E In terms of a spacious first class product, the @Emirates suite on a 777-300ER is hard to beat. My preference is Suite 2K.

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#Emirates #777 #firstclass
Nearly five years ago, I took a “break” from I Nearly five years ago, I took a “break” from Instagram ahead of the birth of my first child. Goodness, how time flies. While I’ve enjoyed catching up on others over the years, now it is time for me to return to Instagram. In this first post, I highlight two joys in my life, my two children, whom I trust will grow up to be prolific travelers that circumnavigate the globe as ambassadors of love and respect.

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#travel #airplanes #airlines #miles #points #familytravel #human #integrity #honor
United Airlines' new Polaris seat is a huge improv United Airlines' new Polaris seat is a huge improvement over UA's current business class seat. Check out my blog at liveandletsfly.com for 70+ photos of how @united is transforming its entire business class experience starting this December!
The perfect @flysas name tag for #Longyearben! The perfect @flysas name tag for #Longyearben!
Spotted four #polarbear outside of #longyearbyen - Spotted four #polarbear outside of #longyearbyen -- oh, and I love 40°F summer weather!
One of the best crews I have ever had the pleasure One of the best crews I have ever had the pleasure of flying with in all my years of flying. Thank you @flysas SK940 on 11 Aug 2016
Next stop ARN! But dear @flysas , next time if I a Next stop ARN! But dear @flysas , next time if I assign a window seat months in advance, don't move me to a center seat "for my convenience" with no way to get my original seat back... 😞
Ready for #PIA from #MAN to #JFK -- we will be rac Ready for #PIA from #MAN to #JFK -- we will be racing the #Delta flight to JFK at the gate next to us, which also departs at 12:45p. With @onemileatatime
Another room with a beautiful view... #hyattregenc Another room with a beautiful view... #hyattregencycasablanca #cassablanca #hyatt
Enjoying #shanghai with @onemileatatime from the i Enjoying #shanghai with @onemileatatime from the inside of the @grandhyatt_shanghai ... It is 40°C outside! 😓
From my front gate to my boarding gate in 15 minut From my front gate to my boarding gate in 15 minutes flat. I ❤️ #bur #burbankairport
@malaysiaairlines #747 out of retirement and in se @malaysiaairlines #747 out of retirement and in service at #kul -- beautiful livery!
View from my 61st floor room at the beautiful bran View from my 61st floor room at the beautiful brand new @parkhyattguangzhou -- look for a full review coming soon on the blog #hyatt #parkhyatt #guangzhou #parkhyattguangzhou
Will miss the @united #globalfirstlounge at #ord, Will miss the @united #globalfirstlounge at #ord, which closes tomorrow and the Queen of the Skies #747 which will be retired in 2018.
The colonial #architecture of #mumbai is stunning. The colonial #architecture of #mumbai is stunning. If you're ever here, get up at 5am and have a walk around the city before it gets busy. You can hear the birds instead of honking horns.
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