US Airways is leaving Star Alliance on March 30, 2014 and we can only guess at what the future Dividend Miles loyalty program will look like. Will the award chart stay the same for now? Will you be able to get to where you need to go? Will fuel surcharges be introduced on carriers like British Airways, practically eliminating any value in economy class redemptions to Europe? (Yes to the last question)
My point is not to speculate about what may happen, but to encourage you to make strategic redemptions this week with your points. Oneworld award space is not nearly as generous as Star Alliance overall and the oneworld network is also much more limited in many regions of the world. Below, I’ve created a region guide to help you guage whether you should book this week before US Airways leaves Star Alliance or hold off an hope for the best when US Airways joins oneworld.
Africa
Advantage: Star Alliance
Redeem now
Star Alliance easily buries oneworld in Africa. With members in the north (Egyptair), central (Ethiopian) and south (South African), Star has a tremendous route network in Africa. Further, Brussels Airlines and Turkish Airlines have a large African route network and Lufthansa, Swiss, and TAP also serve key destinations. Oneworld has British Airways service to a few points in Africa as well as a hub out of Johannesburg. Iberia also operates limited flights into Northern Africa, but that is it—a huge gap in the network.
Asia
Advantage: draw
Redeem now if you have a specific trip planned
I’d call Asia a wash. Star Alliance is still stronger (Air China/EVA/Thai/ANA/Asiana/Singapore) but oneworld offers good award space to many key destinations (JAL/Cathay Pacific/Dragonair/Malaysian). If you are going to Thailand, Thai Airways has great award space and I would advise you to book now. For other destinations, you are still rolling the dice by not booking now, but with some flexibility it will still be possible. Central Asia is not served heavily by either alliance now, though Air India is attempting to join Star Alliance again and would open a huge route network within India and the surrounding region. But for now, you can get to India by several European carriers and Asian carriers on either alliance, so another draw.
Australia + Oceania
Advantage: Star Alliance
Redeem now
Australian internal flights will be better with Qantas oneworld award flights available, but Star Alliance still has the advantage of getting you to Australia. In addition to direct flights from the USA on United and Air Canada or via Auckland on Air New Zealand, connections via Seoul, Beijing, Shanghai, Bangkok, Taipei, and Johannesburg all make Star Alliance the more valuable alliance for getting you to Australia. Beyond Australia, Air New Zealand offers comprehensive service to and within New Zealand and the several oceanic nations in the vicinity. Qantas offers a much weaker route network and has pulled out of domestic New Zealand operations (and service from Los Angeles to Auckland). Oneworld options in addition to Qantas include JAL from Tokyo Narita, sevearal Australian destinations from Hong Kong Kong on Cathay Pacific, and good availability via Kuala Lumpur on Malaysian.
Central America
Advantage: Star Alliance
Redeem now
Star Alliance wins out, though reaching most destinations will be possible in oneworld. With COPA and Avianca/TACA offering service to every major city and good award inventory, it would be best to book this week if you are planning a trip to Central America. United Airlines also serves most key destinations from its Houston hub. American also has a great route network to Central America from Miami and Dallas, so you are covered in either alliance.
Europe
Advantage: Star Alliance
Redeem now
Within Europe, Star Alliance (TAP/SAS/LOT/Brussels/Lufthansa/Swiss/Austrian/Turkish/Adria/Croation) is so far ahead of oneworld (Finnair/British Airways/Iberia/Air Berlin/S7) it is not even funny. Even with Lufthansa blocking, you can get between any two points in Europe with little trouble using Star Alliance. In oneworld, finding connections and award space will be difficult and in many cases impossible. The exception is Russia, where Star Alliance is weak outside of Moscow, St. Peterburg, and Vladivostok and oneworld member S7 offers many flights to key destinations in Russia.
Middle East
Advantage: oneworld
Redeem now if ideal travel dates available, hold off if ideal dates not available
Star Alliance serves all major destinations within the Middle East, but the edge goes to oneoworld because of Qatar Airways and Royal Jordanian. US Airways already has a theoretical partnership with Qatar, but more options should open up once US Airways joins oneworld and space between Europe and the Middle East or Asia and the Middle East is quite generous with Qatar and Royal Jordanian.
North America
Advantage: oneworld
Redeem now if ideal travel dates available, hold off if ideal dates not available
US Airways is currently the repository for the most premium cabin award space in North America, thus losing US is a huge blow to Star Alliance travelers in North America and especially those trying to redeem United MileagePlus miles. United’s North American award space is stingy, particularly in premium cabins, while US is very generous. American also is fairly generous in releasing award space on North American routes, so the advantage here will be oneworld. A warning to U.S. United flyers—I predict many will have to start buying domestic connections to begin or end their award trip (like Delta now) because award space will be so bad within the USA.
South America
Advantage: oneworld
Redeem now if ideal travel dates available, hold off if ideal dates not available
Another winner for oneworld. With TAM and LAN merging into LATAM and TAM leaving Star Alliance also on 31 March, oneworld has a tremendous advantage in South America and your US Airways miles will go further in the post-Star Alliance world. American Airlines offers a robust route network to Brazil and Argentina and British Airways and Iberia serve major cities from Europe. Star Alliance has European service from TAP, Swiss, Lufthansa, and Turkish, a few longhaul options on United and Air Canada, and the bulk of the service picked up by Avianca/TACA and Copa. Oneworld will offer better choices to South America, even as LAN has cut back on premium cabin award space.
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Because we don’t know if US Airways will devalue the award chart, I recommend booking as much as possible this week, but I do not recommend making hyper-speculative bookings. If you have a trip this fall or even next winter, sit down and try to plan it out now–chances are you can get an immensely better deal this week than you will be able to get next week, especially if you are going to Europe or Africa. If you are going to South America or Asia, you should still be able to get space after US Airways leaves oneworld, but space is pretty decent now–I would not wait even for the possibility of LATAM or Cathay Pacific.
Let the Award Expert Team know if we can be of service.
Remeber that you can get up to 40,000 miles with the US Airways MasterCard from Barclays. I keep this card in my wallet and whether used for oneworld or Star Alliance awards, the extra points will come in handy.
Application Link: US Airways MasterCard
- Earn up to 40,000 bonus miles on qualifying transactions
- 5,000 miles off US Airways award redemptions
- discount only on US Airways/US Airways Express operated flights
- First Class check-in
- Zone 2 boarding on every flight
- 2 miles per $1 spent on US Airways purchases
- 1 mile per $1 spent everywhere else
- Annual companion certificate good for round-trip travel for up to 2 companions at $99 each,
- taxes and fees extra on companion tickets
- Annual fee = $89 (not waived the first year)
Something I didn’t realize was going to occur. Their website stated even a week ago that they planned on remaining in Star Alliance as well as OneWorld. Now I see that must just be some part of their webpage that they didn’t choose to update when this decision was announced to the public.
It would be nice to have an airline that is a member of both alliances.
Do you know if US will allow redemptions on Etihad, like the mother ship over at AA? That would further enhance Oneworld in the Middle East, and even Asia, especially the Indian subcontinent, since both QR and EY offer a variety of one-stop connection possibilities. EY really saved my bacon a couple of years ago when I needed an AAdvantage award ticket for my wife to get her to India. Otherwise, I’d have been looking at $1,000+ in fuel surcharges to use BA.
@MeanMeosh: I do not think US will partner with EY, TN, or LY at this time–hopefully later though.
Good analysis. OW is indeed weak compared to SA, especially the case NA-EU. That said, I look forward to using DM for Finnair, Qatar, LANTAM, Cathay, JAL and on the new AA Flagship. Will miss DM, it was a nice long and valuable ride while it lasted. I’m going to guess that AA will hike awards swiftly by aping UAL’s new model. AA saver J award from 100K to 130, and F from 125 to 160. There’s too many people holding too many miles, and with DM folks flowing into OW, too many people chasing a small pool of OW premium awards.
I am assuming that eventually, when the merger is complete and there is not longer a US Air, that the miles will merge with American’s.
That is correct–I suspect that will be sometime in early 2015.