Delta CEO Ed Bastian has promised Delta Air Lines will make “modifications” to the SkyMiles program, but what will those changes be?
My Predictions For Latest “Modifications” To SkyMiles Program
Earlier, I wrote about an appearance Bastian made yesterday in which he said there is “no question, we probably went too far” in making medications to the SkyMiles program and in access rules for Sky Clubs. While the end goal has not changed (“Our team wanted to kind of rip the band-aid off, and didn’t want to have to go through this every year. I think we moved too fast”) there will be “modifications” made in the “next few weeks” to lessen the immediate blow.
> Read More: Delta CEO Admits Carrier Went Too Far, Too Fast With SkyMiles Changes
I thought it would be fun to predict what those changes will be. I do foresee a number of changes that will loosen the requirements for 2025 such that fewer Medallion elites who may already spend $20-25K on Delta tickets and are threatening defection will do so.
Convert Lounge Visits To Day Passes
Delta is faced with constant crowding of lounges at certain key hubs like New York JFK, while other clubs seem to experience little crowding at all (for example, the satellite lounges in Detroit DTW). Its previous approaches to lounge crowding have not solved this problem, but reducing lounge visits to only six per year for American Express Platinum cardholders or 10 visits for Delta Reserve cardholders is a pill too harsh to swallow.
Rather than increase the number of passes, I could see Delta modifying the pass itself. Rather than the “visit” being a single visit, I could see it being valid for a specific day. That way, say you are flying from Los Angeles to Indianapolis via Salt Lake City. Under this approach, you could use the lounges in all three places (or at least in LAX and SLC) and only use one pass.
Making passes good for the entire day instead of just a single visit could be a straightforward way to lessen the blow of the new lounge restrictions.
Theoretically, there could be a system where additional lounge access is available when lounges are not crowded, but that becomes too difficult to enforce and would lead to conflict if such decisions were made arbitrarily by lounge agents.
Reduce Diamond Medallion Tier Requirement By 20%
Delta raised Medallion tier requirements for its Silver, Gold, and Platinum levels by 20% but for its top-tier Diamond status by over 45%. Delta reasonably wants fewer Diamonds, but this is likely too much…it will cause Delta elites who already are rarely upgraded to defect. But increase it by 20% and it still represents a steep increase, but not one that is totally unreasonable if demand is really as strong as Delta insists.
Increased Earnings On Co-Branded Credit Card Spending
Under the new program passengers can earn Medallion Qualifying Dollars (MQDs) at the following rates via credit card spending:
- Delta AMEX Reserve Card – 1 MQD for every $10 in spending
- Delta AMEX Platinum Card – 1 MQD for every $20 in spending
Such spending is foolish considering the opportunity cost of using this card is so high when that spending could be redirected to other sources like cashback cards or flexible currencies which provide significant more value than SkyMiles.
And yet Delta won’t give away elite status to those who put spending on cards.
So I predict a slightly better earning rate with a cap.
Return of MQM + MQS…For Now
Medallion Qualifying Miles (MQMs) and Medallion Qualifying Segments (MQSs) are gone under the new program, but I think we may see them return…just for another year or two.
While Delta wants to look only at MQDs, incentivizing those travelers at the margins to shift travel to Delta…but requiring a lot…is a great way to build and maintain loyalty.
So say instead of just $30K for Diamond you have a path in which if you fly 100 segments and 150,000 miles and still somehow come out under $30K, you can still earn top-tier status for spending $20K.
That’s just one approach, but the point is that totally abandoning distance or segments flown does not properly account for loyalty. Certainly, upgrades for those flyers could be ranked lower than for the big-spenders, but flying that much on Delta does show loyalty and should be recognized.
CONCLUSION
Bastian has promised some rollbacks of the recent SkyMiles changes and I think we could see more flexible lounge passes, reduced earning requirements for Diamond members, increased earnings on co-branded credit cards, and a temporary return of MSMs and MQSs.
What “modifications” do you think Delta will make to its SkyMiles program to make it ever-so-slightly more attractive?
While I think your question and predictions are valid topics, ultimately I can’t help but wonder: who cares? Or at least why should we care? Delta has made crystal clear that they are 100% committed to gargantuan devaluations of pretty much everything that matters to elite loyalty members. Continuing with Delta unless you’re a hub captive is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Better to hunt up a status match with a competitor where you at least have a chance of getting some value in the future.
Great comment. My sentiments as well.
As an AA PP & DL Plat, AA status is really the only way to go moving forward, unless you live in ATL, MSP or any other DL captive hub. There are more ways to qualify on AA, plus you basically get AS status as well. Additionally, OW Emerald is worth more & the redeemable miles are as well.
“I think we moved too fast”
He says there’s nothing wrong with what they did, they just went too fast. These changes will happen eventually, they’re just going to slowly pour salt on the wounds now.
Delta already screwed up. No matter what they do, it won’t change the bad taste on my mouth. Here are a few observations:
1) I have been Diamond or 360 for over 12 years in a row. Some years I fly a lot internationally, some others I don’t. Thus, my re-qualifications have been a mix of spending but the rollover MQMs really help. This year I may end with 250,000 MQMs, you need 125,000 MQMs to get Diamond so the rest would rollover. Now, Delta seems to not care for how much you fly but only for how much you spend on Delta. If you find a BOS-LGA ticket for $35k and only fly that single flight, Delta will give you Diamond status which is ridiculous.
2) I can easily spend $35k/year on Delta BUT that means I am spending that for my household. For example, I buy at least 2 international round trips on Delta One for a family of 4 but that spend will not count for my status (only my ticket will count). Hotels allow you to transfer points, so why not allow the one spending the money get the MQDs? They can only allow that under the same PNR to avoid gaming the system but my wife and kids could not care less about status with Delta since they only travel twice per year on vacation aid by me. What is in for Delta? Well, if I do not get credit for that spending I will send that money on ITA, Lufthansa, Austrian, Air France since I get a better product than Delta.
3) As for Delta lounges, they built a massive new lounge at MSP so now with 3 lounges they are not full at all. Someone said the super rich Delta flyers do not want shenanigans in the lunge. Well, with 6 passes through Amex, the guys wearing flip flops, tank tops and drinking beer at 6am will still be there because they fly for leisure a few times per year. I fly almost every week and will be penalized since I won’t be able to use the lounge more than 6 times. No, I do not use to the lounge for alcohol. I use it for nice bathrooms, coffee and a quiet space to work before a flight.
Anyway, $25k/year is attainable, but not $35k. BTW, 2024 will be the year that all Diamonds from the pandemic will be gone. People that became Diamonds just by rolling MQMs with no need to spend will be gone. You will have to spend $25k in 2023 to keep Diamond in 2024. Bad timing for Delta to screw up loyalty. I know several friends that already started booking flights in the airlines. Lufthansa just announced MSP, Air Lingus is here, Air France and KLM too, Delta needs to be very careful as they will regret their move.
Previous comments pretty much capture my thoughts too. I’m just waiting to see what United does. My expectation is that their program will head in the direction set by Delta, but with a slower, more thoughtful trajectory. I made 1K this year, with room to spare. Meeting current or higher requirements is one thing. An equally important consideration is the value of doing so. The rewards, or lack of, are getting to the point they do not justify the cost of obtaining status. For example, I’m looking at Plus Points again that I’ll probably have to give away or lose, because I haven’t been able to redeem them. I have an international trip soon with a couple of domestic Y fare segments and no upgrades have cleared. I get it, that they would rather sell the F seat. But the flip side is that it devalues their 1K product.
The writing is on the wall folks. We each have our own point at which we say this isn’t worth it anymore. I’m not there yet, but it’s getting close.
I am betting the only change is on the number of SkyClub visits. Throw the plebs a little meat and see how it goes. If they remain hungry and aggressive, well, maybe, let’s see what other minor adjustment might be made. Delta is now officially a credit card company, which happens to operate an airline.
What can’t be denied is that Delta is an extraordinarily well-run company that is first and foremost a for-profit company. You all must recognize that.
Well-run for-profit companies do not give away more of their product than is necessary. Airline loyalty programs have been the most successful of their type but teeter on being too unsuccessful.
Delta did not invent the airline loyalty program or credit card partnerships but has perfect it FOR ITS BENEFIT as evidenced by Skymiles’ and Amex’ industry-leading revenue contribution to Delta’s bottom line.
Delta is simply not going to risk stopping the growth of those sources of revenue.
Delta’s moves to pull up elite qualification levels are far from the first move and other airlines have done the same.
Delta is not immune to public backlash and there has been no shortage of that since Delta announced its SM changes two weeks ago.
Like their position on offering discounts to the NRA, Delta backtracked. Not because Delta execs changed its mind but because they wanted to reduce the heat and light associated w/ their comments.
Delta is not backing off of its intent to make elite qualification tougher and they can afford to lead the industry in doing so because their network is stronger in the largest premium travel markets than it has ever been. And Delta’s product, including its reliability is heads and shoulders better than its competitors. Every traveler, but esp. business travelers, are willing to pay for premium services and Delta gets those premiums better than any other company.
Once again:
Delta is a for-profit company
They use their loyalty program to supplement their ability to gain and retain premium business revenues.
Delta is not going to fundamentally change its march toward higher elite standards and, with it, a more premium product for which some passengers are willing to pay a premium.
Buy the product from the providers you want.
Don’t chase loyalty programs or status but view it as icing on the cake of a relationship with a company you enjoy doing business with.
Don’t be surprised when other airlines copy the moves that Delta initiated even if they take longer to get to where Delta tried to go in its latest announcement.
Delta is not immune from negative feedback but it is not going to do anything that doesn’t benefit its bottom line.
Yes Delta is a for profit company, and their changes were a bad business decision. We shouldn’t find out just how bad until 2025. The Lounge changes don’t go into effect until then so holding a Reserve card makes sense until then. Delta is a for profit company, but like most Airlines it is it’s loyalty program that drives profitability. What you and Bastian don’t seem to realize is that if the loyalty program doesn’t bring benefits for the members, eventually they won’t bother. If flyers continue to fly on Delta but fail to engage, Delta is out $6 Billion a year.
If flyers only fly on Delta when it is the best choice they are out even more.
For most Delta flyers in 2025 it’s only worth having a Delta Gold card for the free luggage, and not worth putting any spending on the card. Even for those who could put $75,000 on the Reserve that’s a lot of opportunity cost. Pay a $550 annual fee and spend Earn approximately $750 worth of skymiles for the spend or earn transferable points worth $2550 for a $95 annual fee? Are the Delta Sky Clubs so much better than the Priority Pass and Centurian lounges that paying that opportunity cost is rational? Not from what I’ve seen.
As for walking some of the changes back, too late. Bastian admits that those changes are coming Delta just needs to roll them out more slowly. I hope people are smart enough to realize continuing loyalty to a company that will give them less and less for that loyalty is a fool’s game.
Hey Tim!! Stop copying and pasting the same post you had in every travel blog out there. Delta is the best US airline in my opinion but they screwed up loyalty and I will give them my middle finger. BTW, there is absolutely nothing premium about their product. Delta One offers cheap wines, Ok food, mediocre service and seats are average. You can get way better product with other non US airlines. Why keep paying more for Delta if loyalty is no longer a thing?
SkyClub limitations I think really chafes people’s cheeks but also likely easy to roll back. If you ignore that viral JFK T4 SkyClub line meme from 2022, most Clubs I’ve been to hasn’t been bad at all, including ATL F. DL needs to recognize this
FWIW I welcome DL conversations recently, and more stuff like this. Less room for certain jackasses to rant about politics.
The biggest problem I had with it was the rollover MQMs. I was going to have enough for an easy downgrade to Gold from Platinum and had planned on United status matching next July.
Still have a lot of flight credits and gift cards on Delta so will have to fly them some next year but think it’s time to focus back on getting 2 million United miles and be done with the status hunt. Hopefully United won’t change their Million Miler program because it’s the best in the biz.
Delta is a for profit company. Wow.
Tim do you have a life outside Delta? I kinda doubt it.
I always thought it was a charitable non profit for poor people like me who have 1000MQDs and still making Platinum next year. Who knew
I live in LA and frequently fly to the eastern US, sometimes to spoke airports like Hartford or Providence when I need to change planes at a hub. Just one round trip could mean I use up 4 of the 6 SkyClub visit allotments in one trip!
Also I frequently take red-eyes to either JFK or BOS (sometimes ATL) and highly value the use of the SkyClubs on early-morning arrival. If they go to a “day pass” scheme, I think it should include an arrival visit even if it is the next day.
I really don’t understand Tim Dunn. Is he on the Delta payroll? Who is he?
An intriguing mystery.
“Is he on the payroll?”
That’s a funny question that’s been raised before. Perhaps works for them in some role. Almost certainly not directly paid to engage with blogs and discussion boards though. Whoever it is is highly ineffective at making their case and convincing anyone of anything. I’d be firing them if I’d hired them to be a blog comment section presence.
Of course, there’s a precedent for people who obsessively post to support their “team” and try to showcase their perceived brilliance (I.e. a poster whose handle is the plural of mine). As annoying as an obsessive sports fan. And usually just as cluelessly unaware.
The only posters who annoy me more are the ones who try to “bait” people like Dunn to comment. Bizarre fanboys I think.
DL comments section on OMAAT in particular is a flaming dumpster fire.
“I wOnDeR wAt TiMm DuNn ThInKs AbOuT tHiS?” on every DL post, like they’re more interested in Tim Dunn than the actual DL news. Dafuq outta here with that weird-ass kink.
Matthew’s page has been relatively safe from that
DCS’s sibling. You’ve doubtless noticed the similarities.
The club restriction on the Delta Reserve makes no sense as the card holds little value beyond club access when compared to the Amex Platinum with a similar AF that comes with a host of other benefits that are not included with the Reserve. For those that club access is the #1 most important benefit, the Reserve card should remain an option for maintaining unlimited access. They might also consider blocking Delta Reserve from Centurion Lounge access to help with overcrowding of those clubs, leaving them for Amex Platinum holders only.
This path might actually drive more card sales for Amex because more may choose to hold both of these cards for access to all clubs. Owning both would be considerably more expensive but at least it provides an OPTION to retain unlimited access if you want to pay for it.
@ Matthew — Whle your statement is correct that Delta increased the requirements “for its top-tier Diamond status by over 45%,” the increase is 75% so I’m not sure why you are mentioning 45%? Furthermore, the two-year increse is 133%.
Matthew I don’t either. But he’s definitely a troll for Delta. He’s everywhere everyday.
Should add with his head up their ass….
My wife has a delta reserve card and I am a user and not the primary. But I have my own card. As it turns out, I am the big spender on the card. However, Delta will not allow me to get spin credits on my cards since I’m the primary cardholder. They should change this policy and allow any court order that is authorized to receive credits.
If they want to encourage spending, it should be $10 per MQD across all DL Amex cards. Lower earning rate on DL Plat is asinine.
As Non-US members have had no MQD requirements, this move will have many leaving Delta entirely in favor of KLM/Air France. Those two have also granted Delta elites FAR more benefits than Delta gives KL/AF elites. Seems like the imbalance continues to widen. I expect Delta to lose the majority of overseas elites – likely they either did not figure this carefully, or more likely, DoN’T CARE