As Air Canada launches its third nonstop route to Southeast Asia, is there room for United Airlines to add its own nonstop transpacific flight to Bangkok, especially as Thai Airways considers a return to the United States?
Will We See More Nonstop Flights To Southeast Asia On United Airlines?
United Airlines recently announced new service to Bangkok (BKK) and Ho Chi Minh City (SGN), but not from its West Coast hub in San Francisco as many expected, but from Hong Kong (HKG). These routes will mark a resumption of historic routes that date back to Pan Am (United acquired Pan Am’s Pacific division in 1985).
The economics of operating nonstop service to traditionally low-yield leisure destinations like Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok are daunting, even with fuel-efficient aircraft (like the 787-9) and connecting options (Thai Airways, a Star Alliance member, is hubbed in Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport and offers domestic and regional connections).
Air Canada is not touting its new service to Manila (MNL) and nonstops to Bangkok (BKK) and Singapore (SIN) in terms of business travel, but in terms of Hollywood connections:
Southeast Asia is a dream destination for movie and TV fans. Air Canada’s direct flights bring you to the heart of three of the most sought-after travel destinations in 2025:
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Thailand – The White Lotus: The breathtaking backdrop of The White Lotus Season 3, Thailand is a paradise of luxury, nature, and culture. Fly nonstop to Bangkok and experience it firsthand.
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Singapore – Crazy Rich Asians: From the Marina Bay Sands infinity pool to world-class hawker food, Singapore brings the opulence and vibrancy of Crazy Rich Asians to life. With nonstop flights to Singapore, indulge in your own high-society adventure.
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Manila – The Bourne Legacy: High-speed chases through Manila’s bustling streets made The Bourne Legacy an action-packed spectacle. With nonstop flights from Vancouver to Manila you can dive into the city’s energy, history, and rich culture.
And indeed, many will want to go to Thailand after watching White Lotus or Singapore after watching Crazy Rich Asians…but is that enough to sustain a route? Or even the focus?
We see that United has had a lot of success in Manila, with a second daily nonstop set to launch later this year. When I flew this route I noticed there were many Filipino-Americans onboard: people like to visit friends and family! Air Canada has followed in United’s footsteps in launching its own nonstop service to Manila earlier this month from Vancouver (YVR).
Meanwhile, all indicators suggest Air Canada’s nonstop Vancouver – Bangkok route has been a resounding success: the carrier commands a revenue premium for the nonstop route and has expanded its seasonal service from three times weekly to five times weekly.
Just last week, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reinstated Thailand’s Category 1 International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) rating. Now Thai-based carriers can fly nonstop to the United States.
Will Thai Airways try to resume service to the USA? As late as 2012, Thai flew an Airbus A340-500 from Bangkok to Los Angeles nonstop – then until 2015 flew to LAX via Seoul Incheon. It’s widely thought, however, that the route never made money.
But could a nonstop United flight from San Francisco to Bangkok, with all of United’s connectivity, actually make money? I’d have to imagine that if Patrick Quayle, United’s SVP Global Network Planning and Alliances, and his team thought that it could, it would be launched…
Even so, would United consider such a route just to deter Thai Airways from starting its own?
Or is the better to focus, as American Airlines has done with JAL or Delta Air Lines has done with Korean Air, on funneling passengers to JV partner hubs for onward connectivity?
As Quayle has told me before, sometimes you just have to try a route and see how it does…
CONCLUSION
New aircraft and changing travel patterns have opened up more opportunities for nonstop flights between North America and Southeast Asia. Even so, the economics of these routes are difficult and I would be surprised to see Thai Airways resume direct service to the USA and think that United’s experiment to Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City via Hong Kong (or Cebu and Ulaanbaatar via Tokyo Narita) represent the realities of limited demand and yields on nonstop flights.
image: Air Canada
Makes me wonder if NH has to give their blessings to UA, if they’re to start a non-stop US-BKK flight with feeder flights to TG. Even though transiting SIN is a better experience than BKK, I’d rather connect via BKK to other SE Asian countries due to a shorter flight time.
IIRC, the JV between UA and NH is for all Asian routes?
I truly doubt ANA need UAL blessings prior to starting NRT-MEX service. The same logic applies to UAL’s double daily non-stop routes like SFO-ICN, SFO-TPE.
More service to Southeast Asia and India is plausible because United cannot compete with North Asia (ANA, JAL, EVA Air, Starlux, Cathay Pacific).
Southeast Asia has weak competition except Singapore Airlines. Malaysia has decent service but is a weak airline.
The same for Europe before. Years ago, the European carriers were better than the US, except Italy was weak. Italy is still weak which is why US carriers can go there. The US 3 are now not so inferior to the big European carriers. True, some differences but not that much.
why not try some flights from the Guam hub instead of flying from HKG?
For one, we are not subject to the whims of Winnie the Pooh when flying from Guam
and as an aside, can I PLEASE type what I am thinking without having to do 100 edits per post. This has been an issue since my stroke 3 years ago!
LAX-BKK would seem to make more sense than SFO-BKK. The Thai ex-pat community in LA is the largest outside of Asia with nearly 100k people. SF is a fraction of that. And while SFO does have slightly better connectivity than LAX, there are still nonstops from LAX to every other major market in the country.
I’d personally love to see that flight as I visit Bangkok at least once a year. I’m already booked on the 1-stop through HKG in December but a nonstop would be amazing.
what UA does is probably less about profitability and more about status and trying to block competitors.
For about a decade, DL has been operating its TPAC network at a higher margin than UA’s even though DL’s is half the size of UA’s.
UA is most likely to make decisions about expansion based on the availability of new 787s and whether they can restore some of the routes that were dropped due to Russian airspace closure as a result of the embargo.
If Trump really succeeds at brokering a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and Russian airspace reopens to western airlines, there will be a mad dash by many carriers with UA at the front to restart and start routes from the east coast to East and South Asia and the west coast to the Middle East that are not viable or operationally possible w/ Russian airspace off limits
The tags onto HKG that they just announced accomplish much of what they need in SE Asia w/ little aircraft commitment.
DL does start receiving the A350-1000s next year and has said they will be used to help DL push further into Asia so UA is undoubtedly going to do anything it can to limit DL’s success in parts of the world that UA sees as its own.
What new routes do you think DL would be looking to try once it has the A350-1000s?