We’ve engaged in a lot of discussion lately about who JetBlue and Spirit Airlines might merge with in this challenging environment, but I don’t think anyone predicted a merger between American Airlines and United Airlines, especially a merger courted and choreographed directly by the United Airlines CEO in overtures to the Trump Administration. But 2026 is shaping up to be quite a year…
United CEO Scott Kirby Floated An American Airlines Merger To White House Officials
According to Bloomberg, with more details later added by Reuters, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby has floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to Trump administration officials.
Yes, we are talking about United and American, two of the largest airlines in the world (and the two largest by certain metrics), combining into one carrier.
On its face, the idea is absurd.
Kirby raised the possibility during a late February White House meeting that was reportedly focused on the future of Washington Dulles. His pitch, at least as described, was that a combined United and American would be a stronger international competitor.
He couched his argument in language of overcoming the U.S. trade deficit (music to President Trump’s ear) and has said before that 67% of longhaul seats to and from the United States are on foreign carriers even though 60% of passengers are U.S. citizens.
I understand the argument in theory: U.S. airlines do face fierce competition from foreign carriers on longhaul routes. But that is a very different question than whether the answer is to let two giant U.S. network carriers merge.
That answer should be no.
This Would Be A Monster Merger In An Already Concentrated Industry
The U.S. airline industry is already heavily consolidated. American, Delta, United, and Southwest control the vast majority of the domestic market. Regulators blocked JetBlue from buying Spirit, a far smaller and easier-to-defend deal than this one, though that seems like it was in a different epoch as we grind through 2026.
A United-American merger would redraw competition in fortress hubs like Chicago and New York, further reduce choices for consumers, and create an airline of such scale that Delta would look comparatively small. Even in a more merger-friendly political climate, this would be a staggering deal to approve.
It’s not going to happen. Folks, it shocks me that someone as clever as Kirby (despite his confidence, or perhaps arrogance, over the superiority of United) would even float such a deal.
So Why Float It At All?
I do not think Kirby is stupid, and I do not think he casually blurts out ideas like this without understanding how they will land, which is what makes this story so wild.
Maybe he genuinely believes this administration is open to almost anything if the politics line up. Perhaps this is a trial balloon designed to test the limits of what regulators might tolerate. It could be that floating something this extreme makes a smaller deal for JetBlue look modest by comparison.
Or maybe Kirby just sees weakness at American and thinks this is the moment to press his advantage and extract the revenge that seems to still drive him (and understandably so) after he was warned their was no path forward for him at American Airlines by his old boss Doug Parker. Kirby used to work at American. He knows that airline well. He also has not exactly hidden his disdain for its strategic mistakes over the years.
American has lagged United and Delta financially and remains burdened by a heavy debt load. If you are running United and think the White House may be more open to consolidation than the last administration was, maybe you start with the biggest possible ask.
All that said, my own theory is that Kirby made the remark in jest and whoever leaked it out of the White House ran with it because it’s just a juicy piece of gossip even though it was probably an off-handed remark in a conversation in which Kirby, like the other court jesters, was simply trying to curry favor with Dear Leader, who “loves a big deal.”
Both American and United have refused to comment, with not even a whisper from Kirby that it wasn’t a merger he was after but a verger to help lead both carriers. You know it’s easy to get those two mixed up like Jesus Christ and doctors…
CONCLUSION
I know we are in an unprecedented era in which nothing should be taken for granted, but at this point I’m not losing sleep over an American-United merger. My own theory is that his comments were not meant to be taken seriously or were strategically planted in order to make a JetBlue merger look smaller in comparison.
An American-United merger would be disastrous for consumers and disastrous for competition (though ironically it would be such a cluster than Delta would probably be the immediate beneficiary for many years). The bigger takeaway is that Kirby is talking about mergers at the White House. I’m still hoping JetBlue will merger with Alaska or American before United, but I predict we are rapidly approaching the day United will make its move for JetBlue.
What do you think about Kirby’s alleged comments?
It is insane. CEOs and oligarchs and most politicians, these days, are not worthy of our praise or attention, especially when they suggest anti-consumer/anti-worker positions like this. Such a merger would only benefit people like Kirby and the attorneys involved.
it’s patently ridiculous. Is Scotty suddenly not worried about ‘brain damage’ from mergers? Would Houston be in favor, i doubt it, would Chicago be in favor, i doubt it, would Phoenix be in favor, i doubt it.
Scotty has said some dundeheaded things before, but this pretty much takes the prize. Megalomaniac.
I just wrote an article this past weekend on another site that AA’s future could be redefined in 2026 and AA does not have the ability to determine its future given its financial position.
DL and UA are the only two airlines that even remotely have the potential to merging with either of the other two megacarriers – and DL is in far better position than UA.
There is no chance that either DL or UA could obtain AA in its entirety but it is possible that carving up AA in pieces could be the the kind of big deal that Trump loves to see.
let’s see how it plays out but, as I said from the beginning, the notion that UA and B6 would be the sum total of consolidation in the US airline industry is incredibly naive. It is even more naive to think that consolidation won’t happen in 2026 as a result of high fuel prices.
and, yes, DL is in financially the best position among US airlines to drive consolidation.
Makin the rounds, I see. VFTW *copy* LALF *paste* Quick! To OMAAT and Cranky! On-the-double!
Tim Dunn copying and pasting comments on multiple comments sections? Say it ain’t so!
Tim, I read your Seeking Alpha story, which was well-done. Even before this latest Kirby White House leak, you wrote:
What do you think will happen to AA, if you had to guess the most likely outcome?
thanks for reading.
I believe there will be pieces of multiple airlines that will be “carved up” between remaining carriers.
AAL is too large for any other carrier to swallow whole. The DOJ will not accept allowing UAL to only have a hub at ORD.
DL has no Texas hub – the only one of the 4 that does not.
UA does not have a SE hub; AA does.
etc.
Repeat that exercise between every carrier and other combinations in the industry and you will see who needs something and who has something.
You can go through the weakest carriers in the industry – which right now are predominatly AAL, JBLU and Spirit and eliminate one or two carriers by carving up those remaining carriers and still end up with at least 3 and maybe 4 global carriers.
Given that the DOT Secretary indicated that the US might be willing to facilitate this “carving up” to allow existing carriers to not get too large (he mentioned a 30% or so max market share which allows potentially 50% larger than what the big 4 have now) while limiting antitrust concerns.
I believe 2026-2027 will be the period of consolidation that should have happened during or just after covid but did not because of government intervention in the industry because of subsidies.
I believe DL and WN are financially the strongest to drive consolidation while UA is perhaps most hungry.
Let’s see how it all shakes out.
“The DOJ will not accept allowing UAL to only have a hub at ORD. DL has no Texas hub – the only one of the 4 that does not.”
So DL gets all of DFW and AA’s ORD operation instead of UA? Wishful thinking LTD. Entertaining as always though.
The most likely scenario is Kirby is tweaking Isom or trying to get others to make ill-advised moves.
first, AA at DFW is the result of DL’s decision to withdraw from the market – which is why AA is fighting tooth and nail to leave ORD.
DL outlasted everyone else at ATL.
The DOJ is simply not going to allow consolidation to turn 2 or 3 carrier hub airports into monopolies for one carrier.
and nowhere did I say that DL wants to operate a hub at ORD…. maybe they do but maybe they don’t.
It is possible that DL and another carrier could carve up AA under DOJ blessing or the same could be said with other airlines as “victims” or acquirers.
All I am saying at this point is not to rule anything too far in or out of reality…. but then bring it back to some competitive and antitrust reality.
and, yes, Kirby could be all about twisting Isom in knots. But Bastian just said on its earnings call that they are serious and ready to be a part of consolidation.
Maybe DL will announce a merger agreement with AA on the day taht UA announces its earnings – just to tweak Kirby
Nobody, including the players, knows what is going to happen. Even if DOT & DOJ agree other airlines or constituents can sue to stop mergers. Look at the damage that was done to JBLU and SAVE due to their merger attempt. Kirby et al should stick to organic growth and buying parts if they become available.
This is a question of leadership and nothing more.AA has been going downhill for years. Until a massive organizational cultural shift occurs the slide will continue. You see it continuously in AA and all the little things that they do. The poor customer service. FA who could give two craps about the passengers. The cleanliness of the planes.
All of this starts at the top. Shareholders need to completely demand a change (as do customers. Unfortunately, they don’t drive the boat)
A merger of UAL & AAL would need approval from European Union, as both airlines fly substantial routes from USA to Europe. EU has strong anti-trust rules…..
BTW, it took Korean Air 3 years to receive all necessary approval from many foreign governments to acquire Asiana Airlines.
I agree that Scott Kirby merely release a trial balloon to Trump administration.
AAL can partner with a private equity to help fund a acquisition of Jetblue or Alaska Airlines. Southwest is able to buy Jetblue, Spirit or Frontier without external financing.
American should fight back by relaunching its image… rename the airline TWA. TWA would be a strategically premium airline. Seat back IFE.
If United does take over American, DFW should be divested. A few international route authority divested. Alaska should get most of the divested assets. Southwest is still too weird and JetBlue is already linked with United.
Starlux, British Airways, and/or Qantas should be allowed to start LAX and SFO to JFK, EWR, and IAD/DCA as a joint venture with Spirit or Frontier or Southwest or Alaska to add premium competition to the bigger United.
I am not sure I agree with the view that such a merger would inescapably be disastrous for consumers and the market at large. It could work as an opportunity to radically rethink the commercial aviation system in the USA, consider importing good practice from elsewhere (e.g. sterile transit), and finding ways to stimulate competition- for example, negotiating full open skies across NAFTA to give every airline in Canada, Mexico, and the USA full access to frequencies, hubs, and markets around North America, including for itineraries within its constituent countries.
I’m not saying that the current US president and his government would have any interest in reshaping the system (and they probably wouldn’t even countenance collaborating with neighbouring countries), but these things don’t happen overnight and they’re neither linear nor predictable.
I suspect when one has a White House meeting, Trump’s staff asks, “could you say something b@tsh!t crazy so Trump seems ‘more normal.'”
It’s an opening statement. Something over the top but it gets the topic on the table for more reasonable options. Trump operates the same way.
I agree there’s always a possibility that a public statement has intents that aren’t at face value.
Aide: You know General, sometimes the men don’t know when you’re acting.
Patton: It’s not important for them to know. It’s only important for me to know.
No, No, NO! I know you love United, but my family won’t fly United unless it is the last airline to fly on and even then I think we would drive instead. Not ever had great experiences with them. The flight experience on Anerican, although not much better, will get worse. Less competition will ensue and that is never good for the air travelers.
LOL that anyone with half a brain thinks this administration would not approve ANYTHING if the politics and the payoff are big enough. You think Trump and Duffy care how much Americans pay for an airline ticket? That didn’t seem to effect Trump’s decision in the middle east. How’s that working for him?
The corruption of the current Administration knows no boundries so as long as theirs something in it for Trump and his cronies they will go along with it.
One thing is for sure: Scott Kirby is definitely not someone who talks nonsense. Once again, he must know something we don’t.
If UA is seriously pursuing a merger, it will be with B6 first.
Have to think that the US and Europe will end up in the same aviation steady state: three full service carriers, two low-cost/ULCC, and a fee independents holding on for dear life.
I’m surprised Kirby isn’t walking upside down given that his massive ego makes him very top heavy
I think this is some excellent 3D chess by Kirby. He knows AA can’t happen. But yes, it makes the JB merger look small by comparison. But he’s really taking advantage of the fact that Trump is unpredictable – who knows what he will sign off on? And that has to make JB panic just a little bit – to the point of maybe lowering their price to sell to UA? Kirby wants them to sell at a fire sale price, and this certainly helps make that happen.
just as a reminder that Delta, the only carrier that has released its 1st quarter earnings, said that it is quite open to consolidation in the US airline industry and reminded everyone that DL led consolidation during the great recession with the NW merger.
UA might only want B6 but DL is not going to be limited by whether UA meets its objectives or not.
It is entirely possible that DL could make a merger proposal with AA or WN, both of which have things DL needs (like a large Texas presence) while DL has things they need. Yes, you have to spin off a few things from any combination of merged airlines – but DL did not express its interest in consolidation to blow smoke up AA’s backdoor.
UA runs the risk of going after B6 while DL is interested in a much larger and more significant target while other airlines could salivate over things that DL (or UA) can’t digest from other airlines.
as usual, Kirby flaps his gums without realizing the implications of what he is saying.
@Matthew : what’s the best name for the combined entity ?
American Ego
@Matthew: I wonder if Kirby is saying merge with AA as bluster so that he can get what I think he really wants, a merger with JetBlue for its lucrative base in the wealthy northeast and esp. JFK hub/slots and aircraft and slots elsewhere. JetBlue has issues but if as assets folded into UA’s route network, I think those are addressed. AA would be a huge headache and I can’t imagine taking whole would make sense given overlap.