United Airlines’ denial of merger talks with JetBlue won’t do much to silence rumors that United is actively considering the acquisition of JetBlue.
Is United Airlines Considering A Merger Or Acquisition Of JetBlue?
Chatter about a JetBlue – United merger is hardly new. In 2017, I wrote a story about how United Airlines was looking at a merger with JetBlue to address its sufficient domestic presence. Those rumors began shortly after Scott Kirby pivoted from American Airlines to United Airlines, where he served for three years as “CEO in waiting” in a specially-created role of “President.”
That these merger talks began with Kirby is key…we’ll return to that in a moment.
This week, the merger rumors have again emerged thanks to aviation insider JonNYC, who shared on Wednesday that United is “heavily looking at B6” and that the rumor is credible.
I have sources telling me UA is heavily looking at B6 — merger or buying assets or something else I’m not remotely sure at the moment.
— JonNYC (@xJonNYC) January 29, 2025
….I have no additional inkling or indication in any way as to if anything like this is considered likely to happen.
On point 1, however, I now have a great deal of confidence that this rumor is completely solid.
— JonNYC (@xJonNYC) January 30, 2025
JonNYC is such a serious voice that his posts prompted a flurry of questions not just by bloggers like me, but from the mainstream media. On Friday afternoon, United Airlines took the unusual step of releasing a SEC 8-K filing stating it was not in talks over a”strategic transaction” with another carrier:
It has come to the Company’s attention that there may be rumors spreading among certain of our investors regarding United’s involvement in a potential strategic transaction with another airline. The Company is not in negotiations or discussions with any other airline regarding a merger, acquisition or similar strategic transaction and has not been in any recent discussions with any airlines regarding the same. As indicated by United’s strong earnings results and outlook provided on January 21, 2025, the Company has great momentum and a bright future ahead.
But is that really a denial? JonNYC never claimed that United was in negotiations or discussions with JetBlue. Instead, he said that United is considering it internally.
And my sources suggest the same…a takeover that has ruminated in the mind of Kirby for seven years, not just for the benefit of United (though that is the primary reason), but also to avoid such an acquisition by American Airlines or Alaska Airlines. There’s still bad blood between Kirby and former American Airlines CEO Doug Parker…
What Would A United – JetBlue Merger Look Like?
There are many unanswered questions at this point:
- Would JetBlue consider a merger with United Airlines (my answer: money always talks)
- Would such a merger pass regulatory scrutiny (watching the Trump administration this week, I’d say it will be no problem)
- Does the merger make sense for United (yes and no)
On that last point, there’s no doubt United would love a
- Return to New York (JFK)
- Strength in Boston (BOS)
- A southeast focus city in Fort Lauderdale (FLL)
The route network is largely complementary, though there is overlap on competitive transcon routes. In that sense, the synergies are limited and United will continue to grow just fine alone. But this merger would make United a big player at JFK and BOS and shake up the entire Eastern Seaboard.
Do I think a merger with United would be good for the public? No, I do not. Not unless United was forced to scale back its hub in Newark to make way for Delta or American Airlines to increase service. That’s not exactly practical for either carrier…JetBlue itself tried to scale up in Newark and it has not worked well. Southwest Airlines tried and failed, pulling out of Newark completely.
The return of the Northeast Alliance with American Airlines or a merger with Alaska Airlines has always made more sense to me. While Alaska may be too busy right now with the Hawaiian Airlines merger, merging its West Coast operations with JetBlue’s East Coast focus could create a large carrier to more effectively compete against the Big 3.
Meanwhile, JetBlue is trying to go it alone, but it’s a tough battle. The carrier may not be losing money like Spirit Airlines, but it continues to lose money and that is simply not acceptable quarter after quarter.
CONCLUSION
Will JetBlue and United merge? It’s too early to tell…and yet I’m convinced the rumors are true that United, sitting from a position of strength right now, is actively looking into buying JetBlue assets or the carrier itself. It makes for fun “armchair CEO” conversations, but United’s “denial” yesterday is like me asking if my daughter spilled the milk and her responding that she didn’t drink any water…
This will be fun to watch…
They’ve been making small steps towards going in deeper with BOS and then jumping back as DL/AA/B6 respond, and there’s a clear appetite for a greater FL presence with their TPA plans.
Even if they had to divest some of those JFK slots, which they’d love, if you can buy B6 cheap it’s surely appealing.
It actually fits into United’s strategy going forward regarding more business class seat options, as well as their need for JFK access. And would explain the United CEO showing up at the Trump inauguration. They will rubber stamp it for a donation or purchase of Trump coins.
Part of me wonders if this is more about acquiring some of JetBlues “excess” neos and maybe some of the JFK slots rather than a straight acquisition and B6 clearly needs cash and UA has publicly said they’re looking to acquire more neos given the Boeing delivery delays
While United Airlines’ denial of merger talks with JetBlue might seem like a straightforward response, the ongoing speculation definitely keeps the industry on edge. It’s no secret that mergers and acquisitions are often part of the long-term strategy in this space. Given the competitive landscape and shifting market dynamics, it will be interesting to see whether these rumors eventually lead to something more. What do you think would be the biggest implications of such a merger for both airlines and their customers?”
It’s no secret that mergers and acquisitions are often part of the long-term strategy in this space. Given the competitive landscape and shifting market dynamics, it will be interesting to see whether these rumors eventually lead to something more. What do you think would be the biggest implications of such a merger for both airlines and their customers?”
JetBlue and Untied?
I hope not. One is a decent carrier with good levels of service. The other is something a European would be reluctant to set foot on.