Bad news for United MileagePlus members, with last week’s devaluation of premium cabin awards now spreading to regions wholly outside the USA. Business class awards are now absurdly more expensive and some economy class awards are more expensive too.
Latest United MileagePlus Devaluation Spreads Outside USA To Business Class
Last week, United increased the price of first class redemptions on ANA and Lufthansa in first class. Now it has drastically raised prices on business class awards in regions outside the USA. Let’s take a look.
Within Europe, the price for an intra-Europe business class award has risen from a flat 27,500 miles to as high as 49,500. For example, a three-hour journey from Istanbul to Frankfurt will now set you back 49,500 miles for business class…
Look at the disparity between Lufthansa and Croatia Airlines between Frankfurt and Zagreb:
Lufthansa shorthaul awards are now double the price in economy class…I suspect the 6K pricing on Croatia Airlines will not last either. 33K miles for business class on a 1-hour flight? Crazy.
Intra-Africa awards have severely risen in price. A one-way ticket yesterday was 22.5K miles in economy class and 42.5K miles in business class. The pricing has now more than doubled for business class and also risen for economy class:
(I’d say this is the most brutal change of all).
Awards within Asia have risen in price in both cabins, with business class awards jumping significantly:
Awards within South America have also risen in price:
Yesterday, business class was only 30K miles on this route…
This is a bloodbath and far more pervasive than the first class devaluation last week since these business class awards are so much more widely available.
My Prediction: Delta Will Match United…What A World
I never thought we’d come to the day when Delta awards are cheaper than United, but outside the USA you can now often find a much better deal on premium cabin awards via SkyMiles versus MileagePlus.
Folks, that won’t last long. I just booked a ticket for an Award Expert client from Paris to Dubai for 42,500 Delta miles on Air France in business class…the cash ticket was going for nearly $3,000.
I just flew on an intra-Europe business class ticket on Delta for 25,000 miles. Do you really think it will keep pricing at that level when United is charging 49,000 for the same origin-destination journey?
Miles are a depreciating asset…that’s fundamental to this game. If you’re sitting on Delta SkyMiles, you may wish to consider a redemption on routing that does not touch North America before Delta matches United…
And while Air Canada Aeroplan is by far the more valuable program now, don’t think that disparity will last…we are long overdue for a devaluation of that program as well.
CONCLUSION
This is all so bad…I had updated my presentation on United Airlines for Saturday at FTU Seattle and now I will have to do so again.
Tomorrow, I’ll publish a detailed analysis of how these recent changes are totally uprooting the way I think about loyalty to United and loyalty in general.
I’m sitting on a fair number of United miles and they are suddenly worth far less. But United has boxed me into a corner and these changes are not in a vacuum. Put another way, United may get away with this.
While devaluation may be the natural progression of any loyalty program over time, the way United has torpedoed the value of MileagePlus on the redemption side is tragic…and as I will argue tomorrow, may backfire. But it also may just be the start of what is to come…
Image: Turkish Airlines // Hat Tip: View From The Wing
This is where the less mainstream programs like Avianca Lifemiles can really shine imo. Less attention paid to them means they also tend to hold onto outdated ans lucrative pricing far longer than the US airline programs
Yeah, but then you have to actually use Avianca LifeMiles. That is, it’s fine if everything goes right. A crap shoot.
It’s becoming more and more evident that none of the carriers are interested in loyalty anymore. This may be the last straw for me. I was not happy about the increase in F for LH and ANA. But now they are coming after J as well with partners…and I expect more in the days ahead.
This is all becoming a bizarre three way punch to different body parts making it fairly pointless to having any alliance preference. AA wants to give everyone status, thereby ruining status. DL wants to make status so exclusive and expensive so as to eliminate anyone having it. UA wants to devalue the program to the point that flying them is senseless beyond convenience. And all of them concoct new ideas each year to destroy the relationships we use to value. This is the classic boiling frog scenario.
While I won’t be knee jerk I am really thinking the time has come to go free agent and forget the status wheel. While I am sure that every program will follow as well (when will Aeroplan make their announcement?) there is no reason to lean into getting miles on just one.
Honestly, Matthew, I think it’s time for a post on “Where Do We Go Now?” I’m even wondering if crediting to foreign airlines makes more sense.
Foreign airlines are always the way forward, no matter where you are based.
For example, BA will charge a huge ‘nonstop premium’ in business class for those flying from MAN and having to endure a connection at LHR- so it’s anything but nonstop, but the price is much higher than flying via MUC/CDG/LIS/wherever (and that’s still better than BHX, as British Airways have no flights whatsoever to Britain’s second city). AFKL and LHG will do the same in their respective home markets. The likes of QR and EK charge stratospheric amounts of money to those flying without a connection.
Status matches are often unavailable for residents of an airline’s home country, and redemption sweet spots are often to be found on different continents to the one an FFP is based. Fifth freedom flights are often available at really keen prices, need I go on?
“Intra-Africa awards have severely risen in price. A one-way ticket yesterday was 22.5K miles in economy class and 42.5K miles in business class. ”
That’s exactly what happened to me on an award ticket from Accra to Addis Ababa. No warning. Decide I would make the move the following day and woke up to this. Bastards ET has the same itinerary in business for 40K.
Some business awards are as high as 400K – 600K miles between some regions. WTF are they smoking?
For me, business class is out of reach. Economy is my way to go.
Well economy prices have risen too. North America to Europe used to be 30K and now starts at 44K one-way, a 50% increase.
If you are flying in economy, it typically makes more sense to forget about the miles and look out for cash tickets, sometimes you might even come across a good premium economy offer.
Australia to Asia in J just went from 57.5k miles to 99k! Thank god I used up my last 220k midweek for wife and daughter to Ord on ANA. Was thinking about using Advantage miles (some flights were as low as 65k miles via lax in biz close in)
Buying aeroplan and lifemiles (and avíos) will be my very near term plan.
Maybe United loyalists will speak with their credit card use. I haven’t used my Delta Reserve AmEx card since last year, when the changes were announced. I used to do $60-$75,000 a year on that card. I’m only keeping it to use the companion ticket this year.
Cash fares continue to be the way to go. Miles are devalued cash (except inflation) is not. Way better value to pay cash for the cabin you want. And don’t credit to US programs anymore and cancel any airline specific cards and only have chase or Amex
Sounds like United wants to
Keep Climbing
These continued devaluations are taking the “fun” out of accumulating points for a vacation. It also makes me glad I have ended the rat race of business flying 125K average a year. Given the average business flyer FC redemption is almost out of the question let along business. While I still have a decreasing left mileage accounts I am now paying for my flights choosing not based so much on loyalty but cost/convenience. My international is premium coach at a reasonable rate! Plus my collection of lifetime status accounts allows us into club rooms and spotted upgrades.
I was going to attach copies of my previous and current bookings but couldn’t
April 29, 2024 MNL to BKK – Business Class: 27,500 miles
May 2, 2024 reservation for July 15, 2024, MNL to BKK – Business Class: 49,500.
WOW.
Crazy, isnt’ it?
Been waiting on the award calendar to open on a flight for weeks now. 3 weeks away and they killed it.
Was 88k non-stop from SA to Europe. Just jumped to 121k overnight.
They used to be my go-to airline. Now they are like Delta. Good product, bad program. And I’d actually say Delta is the better product.
So UA just went from my 1st choice domestic to my 3rd.
Yesterday I booked Jakarta- Bali (1 hour 40 minute flight) in J on Garuda for 44K Delta Skypesos. The cash price was $380, so I consider myself lucky to get it for 44K. An economy class ticket cost $118 but 22K Skypesos! So the J ticket was a “better deal” and I finally got a chance to get rid of my last Skypesos. Yaaaay!
Meh – the insane debasing of airline currency is just driving us to fly on trips one way by air and one way by cruise ship. The added benefit is that we don’t have to worry as much about parts and doors falling off, inoperable lay flat seats, or equipment changes leaving us paying thousands of dollars for trash bleacher seats.
Anyone look into if this affects the excursionist perk? I would be surprised if that was scrapped..
Good question. I’ll find out.
Wouldn’t*
Tue devaluations are somewhat weird from a business perspective considering all their hubs are ain’t competitive environments. You would think the MileagePlus team would have fought back successfully
Get over it people. No one ever guaranteed you would get a ticket for x miles. I’ve been a member of programs since the mid 80s and the only constant is change. When I started you had 1000 mile minimums for every segment, triple mile promotions, free positive space first class tickets awarded for flying xx segments, etc. Add in fixed award tables that were around 25,000 round trip first class.
BTW, all the bloggers want to say this is “devaluation”. No it isn’t. It is inflation. Every currency (cash or miles/points) follows the same economic rules. There are 2 major issues driving valuation of miles/points right now. First of all you have the huge expansion of miles/points due to large sign on bonuses, bonus categories on credit card spend and hording during COVID (couldn’t burn miles/points as easily). That means more currency in circulation so of course the cost of redeeming it should go up. Then you have the rise in ticket price. If before 25,000 miles got a $300 ticket it frankly isn’t reasonable to expect the same 25,000 miles to get a ticket that now costs $500.
As for comments on “loyalty” – give me a break. These are, and always have been, marketing programs, not loyalty programs. Also, every carrier is making much of the same changes so good luck finding one that meets your expectations.
Look I don’t like that it costs more in points/miles to get awards but I also understand why. These are for profit businesses and they shouldn’t be expected to just give away their inventory at firesale prices. Then you have the accounting liability of the miles/points (they have to be carried and valued as a future obligation against entity equity value) which is also an incentive to get more burned.
Cash prices seem fine to me, the ‘revenge travel’ madness has subsided and I now see decent deals in all cabins.