In a very tangible way, the future of United Airlines and its United Next initiative rests in the hands of Congress, as lawmakers consider whether to grant Boeing a further delay on implementing new Boeing 737 MAX safety components.
As Congress Considers Whether To Cut Boeing Slack, United Airlines Anxiously Waits
United Airlines has staked the next five years on United Next, its plan to add 500 new planes to its fleet at a rate of over 100 per year. United says this will transform its fleet into a modern, fuel-efficient workhorse, with CEO Scott Kirby adding:
“If we’re successful bringing these 500 airplanes onboard, we are so far ahead of any of our competitors that there’s really no way that anyone can catch up to us.”
While that remains to be seen, the very prospect of adding so many new aircraft, at least as planned, is currently in jeopardy thanks to delays in the certification of the Boeing 737 MAX 10.
Congress mandated in 2020, in the wake 737 MAX crashes in Ethiopia and Indonesia, that any aircraft certified in 2023 or later have new (and arguably redundant) cockpit alerts to better protect against unnecessary tragedy.
But Boeing has not received regulatory approval for its 737 MAX 10 (with over 700 orders) or its 737 MAX 7 and the year is quickly winding down. Thus, Boeing is aggressively making a dual effort to further delay the implementation of the new cockpit safety requirements while at the same time trying to obtain approval for its new variants before the end of 2022.
Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS) has proposed a two-year extension and will try to add it to an omnibus defense bill, but it is not clear if that is a winning strategy.
Meanwhile, the Federal Aviation Administration has complained that Boeing has been late to submit paperwork, further delaying the process.
United Airlines Is The YoYo Between Boeing And Congress
This brings us to United Airlines. The Chicago-based carrier has ordered 232 737 MAX 10, including 52 in a premium configuration and 182 in a denser domestic configuration. United’s fleet renewal plan, growth plan, and network plan all rest upon the delivery of this aircraft in a timely manner.
> Read More: United Airlines Prepares For Premium 737 MAX 10 To Replace Aging 757-200
I tend to think that Congress will roll over and give Boeing more time (and frankly it isn’t clear to me if these extra cockpit protections are even necessary in the first place), but if not we might see a very different future for United Airlines.
Of course, the carrier proved to be extremely nimble and resilient in adjusting schedules based on demand during the pandemic. Kirby and his team also wisely did not retire aircraft as American and Delta did.
United will still be okay if Congress insists that Boeing proceed with these additional protections. But United will look different. It will be smaller. We will see older aircraft stick around longer (and perhaps not be retrofitted). Boeing is certainly just bluffing when it threatens to kill the Max 10 program, but further delays in certification may well change the nature of United’s growth plan for many years to come.
Airbus Wildcard?
Of course, all of this is music in the ears of Airbus. United has 70 Airbus A321neo on order (the A350 is still on order too). It is not clear if Airbus would be able to step in if Boeing falters, but I bet it would certainly try in pushing variants of its A32o family as a viable alternative to the 737 MAX 10.
CONCLUSION
As Boeing wrangles with lawmakers and regulators over the certification of its MAX 7 and MAX 10 aircraft, United Airlines stands waiting. We saw how 787 delivery days so adversely impacted American Airlines over the last year and we may see Boeing’s failure to deliver on a far larger scale if certification delays effectively torpedo United Next.
image: Airbus
Duel effort?
Ominous defense bill?
Come on Matt, you’re better than that.
Fixed. Thanks Mike.
Kirby often talks about how they will be taking an average of 1 new plane every 3 days in 2023. That doesn’t include Max 10s though does it? Is it mainly max 8 and 9s and some a321s?
Hi Jared, the info on this post is completely inaccurate. First of all, it is a TOTAL of 250 Max 10 firm orders. Not commitments, but firm orders. It starts with tail number 7751 up to 250. And YES, the “one new plane every 3 days “ deal DID include the MAX 10 starting with deliveries in 2023. An exactly 60 deliveries of the Max 10 throughout 2023 were expected. Another one, yet again, of Kirby,s / Laderman’s flops!!!
Thanks for clarifying on the MAXes! At this point it seems like 2024 would be the earliest the MAX 10 could be delivered, and that’s a best case scenario at this point.
RE Airbus, the regular a321neos are expected to start in 2023 and the XLRs in 2024 correct? And do we know what the configuration will be on those? Neos in regular domestic and XLRs in a new Polaris narrowbody design?
Yes Jared, that’s correct. The XLR is expected to be configured with , from what I understood , 20 Polaris “suites” in what’s expected to be a new iteration of the
Polaris chair WITH doors! I can’t wait to see it to be honest. And yes, Neo’s deliveries start next year. XLR ‘s starting from 2024.
Nice thanks!
Let’s not kid ourselves. Congress does not care about “new safety features.” BA and UAL just need to send a few checks to Congress and everything thill get worked out for them. Boeing and United = Big Union $$$$$ . They got both D and R in their pockets.
As soon as you see the ultra patriotic logo, you can be pretty sure it is a Russian post. He is against Democrats Republicans and unions. Not much in the US he is not against.
The US is the enemy of humanity.
While I dread the day the max 10 enters service from a comfort standpoint, it seems inevitable that this extension will be granted
Agree. Just spent 15 hours in EcoPlus on a 787. Pure hell in those 17 inch seats. Premium cabin sold out. Now I know why. Can not imagine an even shorter trip in a 737-10. Sadly the 737 and I were conceived in the same decade. Only one of us has grown in most unfortunate ways.
Any word on when an extension decision will be made?
Nothing yet, but I predict December. It will probably go down to the wire.
The blame lies with Boeing. Can’t manage MAX program; can’t manage Dreamliner program; and the A220 fiasco blows up in its face. Now, it wants to make Congress the heavy. Get real!!
As alluded to in the story, UA didn’t shed as many airframes as the Widget nor AA; so it has reserves should MAX 10 be delayed plus Airbus sheet metal in the pipeline.. If Kirby is as smart at counting cards, he’s got a plan “B” up his sleeve ready to play at a moment’s notice.
Maybe Kirby should run Boeing. The current C-Suite of numb nuts at Boeing are clueless. Classic Harvard business school case study on how not to run a business.
It’s always been said the FAA is ‘in bed’ with Boeing and vice-versa. Now Airbus is my favourite plane but who cares what I want.
The title of this article comes across as, well, a tad dramatic and alarmist. I’m a senior Captain and Check Airman for United and this very topic came up for discussion during our recent annual flight standards meeting. Scott Kirby was addressing the crowd and felt optimistic that the MAX 10 will ultimately be certified. You can bet that senior leadership would never jeopardize the future of the airline over something like this. There is always a plan A, B, and C. Boeing will swap the -10s for -9s, if need be. Kirby further stated that we would go to Airbus for more A321s to make up the balance, if required. Both Airbus and Boeing have indicated that they will get us the airplanes we need, when we need them. Like previous posters have stated, Washington will almost certainly certify the Max -10…it’s a safe airplane. It would be too damaging to the economy and the industry if they didn’t, but it does send a signal to Boeing that they can’t keep stretching and trying to update a design that’s over half a century old. They are going to have to build a new narrow body airplane if they wish to remain competitive in the marketplace.