A year after United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby first addressed the possibility of a merger with JetBlue and downplayed a deal was in the works, we can now more clearly see his strategy in laying the groundwork for what an acquisition might look like, especially in light of the recent geopolitical turbulence.
Correction: an earlier version of this article attributed Kirby’s comments to a conference in March 2026 rather than in March 2025.
United CEO Scott Kirby On JetBlue Merger: “Up To Them” (But That’s Not The Whole Story!)
Let’s go back a year to 2025 and see how Kirby’s comments have aged. Speaking at the JPMorgan Industrials Conference, Kirby was asked directly about the possibility of consolidation and whether United might pursue a merger with JetBlue.
His short answer?
“Buying JetBlue is up to them.”
But is it? Or is it a signal that United is comfortable with its current position and unwilling to pursue a merger unless the terms are overwhelmingly favorable? Fortuitously for Kirby, the economic ravages of the Iran War may make JetBlue riper for the taking than ever before.
Kirby made clear that United does not “need” a merger to execute its strategy and few would disagree. He emphasized that mergers are distracting and come at a cost, particularly when it comes to product and technology:
“Mergers sideline technology teams for years.”
To put his remarks in context, I’ve included his full comments below. Asked if more industry consolidation was needed Kirby said:
“I don’t know. I think it’s I probably think it’s less likely than others think. JetBlue is the obvious candidate. Joanna is going to be here later today. So you can ask her what she thinks.”
(Joanna Geraghty is the CEO of JetBlue)
He continued:
“It’s possible. But there’s a lot of challenges, like I look at it from United’s perspective. We have a great plant that is working and mergers are so hard. They’re disruptive.
“Your technology team spends two years on the sideline just integrating like I bet a lot of you use the United app. I bet you all think it’s the best app in the world in airlines because it is. Like that kind of investment just gets harder to do. We got some super cool stuff coming for customers this year. That stuff just gets harder and harder to do.
“And at United, well, when the business based business plan is working, like the hurdle to go do it, we don’t need a deal for sure. The hurdle to go do a deal gets a whole lot higher. That said, at least at United, I would like to have a bigger presence on the other side of the river at JFK. But man, all the headache, all the brain damage of buying a whole airline to get that, that’s a lot to do. So, yes, really, I think the ball is going to be in JetBlue’s court.
“They’re working out a lot of respect for them. They’re working hard. They’re also an airline that focuses on brand loyalty. So from the customer perspective, they have a lot of those sort of core DNA things that are expected there. Also competing with another airline, JFK and Boston that has that too.
“So it’s a tough position for it to be in. So it’s sort of their decision on how to sort through that. That’s the only one that I think really is potentially in play one way or another.”
Yes, integrating systems is not always easy. Airlines typically talk about mergers in terms of “synergies” and “network expansion,” but Kirby is reasonable in highlighting the opposite: execution risk.
And that’s not theoretical. Just look at how long it took American Airlines to fully integrate US Airways (under Kirby’s tenure). Kirby is saying that United’s competitive advantage right now is operational execution, and a merger would jeopardize that. He may be right.
But then Kirby went on to count up reasons for a merger….
JetBlue Is The “Only Logical Target” And The Real Prize Is JFK
Despite downplaying a deal, Kirby acknowledged the obvious: JetBlue is the only realistic consolidation candidate. That’s not surprising.
JetBlue offers:
- A strong presence in New York and Boston
- A customer-focused product that aligns with United’s premium push
- Limited longhaul overlap with United’s global network
The real prize here is New York. United made a huge error in abandoning JFK years ago and returning to JFK with a substantial presence has been key concern for Kirby since he pivoted from American to United.
The broader context of this moment in time is also important.
Kirby also made clear in his remarks that parts of the airline industry, particularly the low-cost segment, are under pressure, and suggested that capacity will come down after the summer peak. It certainly did in late 2025 and that continues in 2026.
This year is even more uncertain for budget carriers, as oil prices are surging and there is tremendous geopolitical uncertainty with the latest war raging in the Middle East.
United doesn’t need JetBlue for itself, but will happily acquire JetBlue as a stepping stone to JFK. Kirby’s right that the focus on customer service and offering an elevated in-flight experience is a commonality between JetBlue and United (unlike with Alaska Airlines or American Airlines). The route overlap is limited and the style of service is at least complimentary, even if the technological integration would be complicated.
(and yes, I don’t discount that United seems to have gambled incorrectly with capacity increases in both Newark and Chicago O’Hare, so the idea that a JetBlue deal would not require big concessions at Newark or other United hubs is probably wishful thinking)
When I hear Kirby speak, then or now, I think he deliberately goes to great lengths to downplay a merger between JetBlue and United, but I also think it’s going to happen and Kirby is just waiting for the economic damage of surging oil and weakened demand to strike at the opportune time.
It is up to whether JetBlue can remain strong enough to avoid becoming an opportunistic acquisition. And if it cannot (and I don’t see how it cannot), United will be ready…but only on terms that make sense for United, not JetBlue. That’s even clearer now than it was a year ago.
CONCLUSION
Kirby’s comment that buying JetBlue is “up to them” does not mean that JetBlue must orchestrate a merger with United.
JetBlue remains the most logical consolidation target and United would benefit from greater scale in New York. But United still feels, rightly or wrongly, that it has “all the cards” and it doesn’t need JetBlue to achieve its business plan.
Instead, Kirby will continue to watch and wait for JetBlue to sink or swim in this suddenly dire environment for airlines and will be ready to throw a lifeline if needed, but on his terms, not their terms. Thus, it really is “up to him” not to “up to them.” That’s more true in 2026 than it was in 2025…
> Read More: United Airlines CFO Drops Biggest Hint Yet About JetBlue Merger
Hat Tip: View From The Wing
Your quotes from Kirby here are from last year’s conference. This was all said last year. These are not quotes from 2026…
Yes, you are correct…it’s interesting to see how his comments have aged.
Ok but this is incredibly dishonest reporting. You very obviously knew the comments were from last year, but wanted to generate additional traffic by making the content seem more immediately relevant. You need to apologise immediately and take down this article.
No, Jon, I do not. Go jump in a lake.
United’s app is the best…by far, but adding features and functions just for the sake of adding features and functions doesn’t increase value.
Which means that United can take a break from the app for a bit and do other things.
As for Jetblue…higher fuel prices couldn’t have come at a worse time for them.
I see a lot of people raving about the UA app and occasionally about those of other airlines. What’s so great about them? Can you select seats and special meals for a UA-issued award ticket with flights operated by, say, Thai and Aegean? Are you able to move your booking to another airline (even within *A) on a self-service basis when facing a cancellation due to IROPS, forward your checked in bag to a flight on a separate ticket etc, or is it all about telling you the departure gate and baggage belt numbers?
It is amazing to compare the UA of today to when Kirby and his team arrived in 2016. UA’s JPM presentation makes it clear that their successes will only continue to grow.
you mean the JPM conference where Jamie Baker, the airline industry’s most senior analyst, said that the reason DL goes first is because the first spot is reserved for the airline that generates the highest percentage of industry profits (55% for DL) or pays the highest profit sharing?
Jamie Baker closed the conference by telling Ed that he had no reason to doubt that any other US airline could challenge DL’s industry leadership and Baker fully expected DL to be first again next year.
You mean THAT JPM conference? The one where Scott Kirby got the most in-your-face whack up the side of the head possible?
“A Deutsche Bank analysis this week estimated United generates about $10 billion of annual revenue tied to Chicago, compared with just over $5 billion for American, and put United’s 2025 operating margin in the market at about 5% versus an estimated negative 9%-10% for American.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/americans-chicago-showdown-with-united-airlines-becomes-key-test-turnaround-2026-02-05/#:~:text=A%20Deutsche%20Bank%20analysis%20this,9%25%2D10%25%20for%20American.
Sorry. Wrong site.
This merger is possible but unlikely in the near future.
It’s not so hard to predict how the hit song “WE WILL NOT MERGE” will end in the commercial aviation sector.
But did he say “thank you” and is he wearing a “suit”?
While UAL is stronger than Jetblue financially, it does not implied that UAL is Jetblue’s only merger partner. Southwest can easily acquire Jetblue, after selling some gates and landing slots at FLL.
Such a merger could boost WN’s presence on the East Coast and internationally, while providing B6 with financial stability.
In my fevered imagination, I would love to see jetBlue merge with Alaska Air Group, and they’ll keep the jetBlue brand and everything. I just want status with HA AS and B6
As one may recall, a merger between B6 and AS is technically possible and is frequently considered a “logical match” by aviation experts and could create a real national competitor across the country. However, as of now (March 2026), there is no official merger process underway between the two airlines. In addition, the two companies’ routes overlap at very few points (mostly on intercontinental flights). This could make it easier to obtain approval from regulatory bodies (DOJ) on the grounds that it does not hinder competition.
I would love to see that also, but we won’t see it for a while, if ever. Alaska is still digesting HA — in a few years then perhaps it will happen. But I would not expect them to keep JetBlue and Alaska brands. HA was a. unique circumstance that had cultural implications beyond brand considerations.
If a merged AS/B6 had to pick one brand I think JetBlue would make more sense for a national/global airline, but long time leadership at AS probably sees if differently. If politics were not a consideration then I’d expect this to happen in 4-5 years. But UA could reason that the only chance they have at growing through acquisition would need to occur during this administration and I don’t think AS would be in any position to counter that in the next 3 years.
Such a merger would be terrible for the flying public so this administration will clearly give it a green light. What is truly needed is an Alaska – JetBlue merger as it would create a viable competitor to the Big 3.
AS was asked about consolidation and it said it isn’t ready for another acquisition.
If AS and B6 decided to even start talking, UA is iced out in a heartbeat.
and it is beyond laughable that UA even thinks that it can do anything east of the River where DL dominates and AA is #2 but AA can’t make it in ORD because of UA’s much larger size.
and all of that is before recognizing that B6 has billions of debt and is breakeven at best even at their costs, let alone costs that UA would have for B6′ operation
It is beyond nonsense that UA will succeed in any fashion at JFK.
Decisions have consequences. Kirby gave 1/4 of LGA’s slots to DL for $60 million while at US and then a UA exec predecessor to Kirby walked away from JFK.
If it wasn’t real life, you would have to laugh but you cry that some of the same people in the industry complain about decisions that others made while glossing over their own which is much larger strategically
A combined B6 and AS would be such a waste. It would serve Boston, NY, South Florida, California, Seattle… and nothing else.
which simply says how mature the US airline industry is and the fact that there really are no good mergers left.
UA/B6 or any slot deals/flights swaps in NYC is about nothing more than trying to fix a bad strategic decision that former UA mgmt made but at the significant cost of consumer choice in NYC
Not only is it certain that state consumer groups and regulators will oppose any combination of B6/UA but AA and DL are very likely to aggressively oppose anything and could also increase EWR transcon flying which would be most at risk.
No airline has a perfect route system and sometimes, indeed many times, you simply have to accept that pushing to try to fix that will come at a far higher price because of opposition – and that is all before working through the differing economics of B6 and UA and the fact that the very same dynamic of other airlines being much stronger than UA east of the river still exist.
So jetblue couldn’t buy spirit airlines, which happens to be 2 small companies. Reason was competition among the lower priced airlines. Stop frontier from buying spirit for the same reason but then here we are watching united possibly taking over jetblue? What a joke
It’s a joke indeed.
I’m largely against these corporate mergers because they harm consumers. JetBlue is a wonderful airline and provides needed competition. United/Jetblue codesharing such as in the Star Alliance would be ideal: People could utilize Jetblue’s routes as an extension of the United international network and Jetblue’s existence would keep United honest.
I hated the race-to-the-bottom that Spirit kicked off with tiny seats, and no-free-checked-bags but it has helped to keep fares down despite raging inflation and population growth.
Sadly, instead of actually improving things CEO’s get huge bonuses for massive mergers so they can get huge bonuses and then leave to repeat the process. It’s a pity that neither of the uniparty is equipped to check this.
It sounds like Stuart Smalley making his daily DL affirmation.
Complementary
I will contact blue state Attorneys General as soon as this illegal deal is announced.
Kirby seems to be adopting the same ignorant arrogance in his manner as his hero, Criminal Trump.