United Airlines will announce another batch of new routes next week, and after hearing Scott Kirby and Toby Enqvist tease at least one new longhaul route from Denver, I’ve been thinking about what else might be coming. Some guesses are fairly conventional. Others are much more fun…but here are my predictions (which I may update when the social media tease is revealed on Monday.
What Will United Airlines Announce Next Week? My Predictions For Its Next Longhaul Routes
United has made something of a tradition out of turning international route announcements into an event, often with destinations that are surprising, obscure, or both.
Next week, we’re getting another one.
At United’s Flight Training Center event in Denver yesterday, both CEO Scott Kirby and Global Chief Information Officer Toby Enqvist hinted that at least one new longhaul route from Denver would be announced next week.
Kirby went further, suggesting there would be something “really special” announced.
That got my attention.
And then something rather amusing happened after the event.
Kirby walked past me, then turned around and came back.
“So Matthew, what do you think we are going to announce next week?”
I thought about it for a split second.
“Scandinavia. I think you’ll announce service to Copenhagen, Stockholm, and Oslo.”
A big smile spread across his face.
And then he walked away without another word. I called out, “Am I right?!” and he just kept smiling.
Make of that what you will…
First Prediction: Denver To Paris
Let’s start with Denver.
My guess is Paris (CDG).
United already has a formidable European network from Denver, and Paris is a conspicuous hole for an airline that has built DEN into such a large hub. It also makes sense as United continues to push Denver beyond its traditional role as a domestic connecting hub.
Denver-Paris would hardly be exotic, but it seems commercially logical and I think United would have plenty of feed form the Rocky Mountain region to support seasonal service on a 787-9 even without a partner in Paris.
Of course, Kirby said something “really special” is coming, but that was not in the context of Denver.
Scandinavia: Copenhagen, Stockholm, Oslo (Or All Three?)
I’ll stick with the answer I gave Kirby.
Scandinavia.
United currently has a strong presence across Western Europe, but there are still obvious holes farther north and east. Copenhagen (CPH) seems the strongest candidate to me, and I could also see Stockholm (ARN) and Oslo (OSL).
The arrival of the Airbus A321XLR changes the economics of routes like these.
United’s first A321XLR is expected to enter service later this year, initially domestically, before beginning international flying in early 2027. As of June 30, United expected to receive five XLRs during the second half of 2026 and another 15 in 2027, with 49 firm commitments remaining.
These aircraft are specifically intended to replace Boeing 757s on thinner longhaul routes to smaller cities in Europe and South America, while still offering a proper Polaris cabin. United has said that by April 2028 it expects 28 A321XLRs in the fleet.
That opens a lot of possibilities.
Copenhagen is probably the easiest Scandinavian route to imagine, particularly with SAS no longer in Star Alliance. United does not have the feed at CPH that it once could have relied upon, but it also has more reason now to serve Scandinavia directly rather than funnel passengers through a former alliance partner.
Stockholm and Oslo are thinner markets, but that’s precisely what the XLR is for.
And yes, perhaps Kirby was simply amused by my guess.
But that smile…
More Central And Eastern Europe?
I also expect United to keep filling in the European map.
Prague (PRG) is an obvious candidate. Budapest (BUD) would not surprise me either. And what about Warsaw (WAW)?
LOT is of course a Star Alliance partner with its own substantial U.S. network, so Warsaw presents different considerations, but United has shown repeatedly that it is willing to serve cities that would once have been dismissed as too thin for a U.S. carrier.
Again, the XLR is important here.
United no longer has to choose between sending a relatively large widebody or not serving the market at all. A premium-heavy narrowbody with transatlantic range gives Patrick Quayle and his network team another tool to experiment with markets where demand may be strong but not 250-seats-per-day strong.
Hong Kong Is Working. What Comes Next?
United has made Hong Kong central to its renewed transpacific strategy. It currently operates twice-daily service from both Los Angeles and San Francisco to HKG and has added fifth-freedom service from Hong Kong to Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City. United itself has described Hong Kong as a key gateway in its Pacific network.
From what I’ve heard, those transpacific Hong Kong flights are doing extremely well. If that’s true, I wonder whether Chicago-Hong Kong finally comes back.
ORD-HKG was once an important part of United’s Asian network, and with more 787-9s arriving, the aircraft are increasingly available to support additional longhaul flying.
United’s fleet plan as of the end of June called for 12 more 787 deliveries in the second half of 2026 and 27 in 2027, although Boeing delivery schedules are always subject to change. United still had 146 firm 787 commitments at that point, which of course is a lot of new widebody capacity.
I’d also look for more fifth-freedom flying beyond Hong Kong.
Potential candidates from Hong Kong include:
- Bali (DPS)
- Kuala Lumpur (KUL)
- Jakarta (CGK)
The BKK and SGN experiment gives United a way to extend its own metal deeper into Southeast Asia without trying to make every destination work nonstop from the United States.
If it’s working, why stop at two? Of course every year we speculate whether United will finally launch a nonstop SFO-BKK service and while that may happen one of these years, I’m not certain it will this year.
How About LAX-Manila Or Singapore?
Then there is Los Angeles.
I would not be surprised to see LAX-Manila (MNL).
And just to rub it into Delta a little bit, LAX-Singapore (SIN) would be fun too, though United tried and could not make that route work in the past (I was on the inaugural flight back in 2017).
United already has a tremendous transpacific operation from San Francisco, but Los Angeles remains strategically important and fiercely competitive. The new premium-heavy 787-9s give United another opportunity to selectively add longhaul routes from LAX without diluting SFO’s role as its primary Pacific gateway.
MNL seems particularly plausible given the enormous Southern California Filipino community.
SIN would be bolder, but United likes bold and I’d classify Singapore Airlines more a “frenemy” than an ally despite the common membership in Star Alliance.
I Wouldn’t Expect Much From The Middle East Next Week
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is simply too fluid for me to expect United to make an aggressive new announcement there next week.
Eventually, though, I expect Dubai (DXB) to return. I would also love to see Amman (AMM) return.
Both routes made strategic sense before regional instability disrupted them, and I do not think United has lost interest in either market.
The question is timing…this doesn’t seem like the time, though a lot can change between now and next spring.
Could The “Really Special” Announcement Be A New Around-The-World Route?
Kirby did not simply say there would be new routes. He said something “really special” was coming.
What qualifies as really special?
My wild-card prediction is the return, in some form, of United’s old UA1/UA2 around-the-world service.
Longtime United flyers will remember that UA1 and UA2 once circled the globe. In its 1990s incarnation, United linked Los Angeles, New York, London, Delhi, and Hong Kong before returning to the West Coast, with the direction reversed for the opposing flight number.
Those were different times, different aircraft, and a very different United Airlines.
But there is a curious opportunity developing today.
The war in Ukraine continues to make nonstop U.S.-India flying operationally difficult, creating a large hole in United’s network. Meanwhile, Air Canada has demonstrated that there is a market for connecting Europe and India with its London-Mumbai service.
Could United create a modern version of UA1/UA2 that links North America, Europe, India, and East Asia?
I’m spitballing here, but imagine something along the lines of:
LAX-JFK-LHR-DEL-HKG-LAX (maybe SFO instead of LAX)
Or some variation of that.
It would not necessarily need to operate as a literal three-day round-the-world journey marketed primarily to passengers flying the entire loop. Each segment could stand on its own commercially while the combined flight number and routing restore one of the coolest chapters in United’s history.
That would qualify as “really special.”
Could Guam even somehow fit into the equation?
United has an enormous operation there but no nonstop service from Guam to the continental United States. A nonstop GUM-West Coast flight would be fascinating and would create still more possibilities for constructing a true global routing.
I’m not predicting that with any confidence.
But we’re having fun here.
And Then There Is JFK…
United is also coming back to New York JFK.
As part of its Blue Sky partnership with JetBlue, United will gain access to enough JFK slots for up to seven daily roundtrips beginning as early as 2027.
The obvious use is transcontinental flying.
With the new A321neo Coastliner entering service, I expect United to rebuild LAX-JFK and SFO-JFK in a serious way.
My guess?
Something like five daily flights on each route eventually, although seven total daily roundtrips from JFK under the current JetBlue arrangement means United would need additional slots before it could operate 5x daily on both routes simultaneously.
The Coastliner was built for exactly this market, with lie-flat Polaris seats and Polaris Lounge access on premium transcontinental routes. United expects to have 40 of the 50 Coastliners on order delivered by April 2028. We’ll see those fly to Newark as well.
But what if United does something more interesting with JFK?
JFK-London?
United already dominates the New York-London market from Newark, so there is a legitimate question as to whether JFK-LHR adds anything other than complexity and bragging rights.
But United clearly cares about being relevant at JFK again, and a London route would certainly make a statement.
What I’d really love is JFK-London City (LCY). Sadly, the A321XLR is far too large for that operation and United has nothing in its fleet comparable to the Airbus A318 British Airways once used for its famous all-business-class LCY-JFK service.
So I’ll keep dreaming.
What I’m Actually Betting On
If I had to put money on next week’s announcement rather than simply list everything I’d like to see, my predictions would be:
- Denver-Paris
- At least one Scandinavian destination, with Copenhagen my strongest bet, but potentially ARN and OSL too
- One or more new Central European destinations, likely Prague or Budapest
- Additional Hong Kong fifth-freedom flying
- More JFK flying using the new Coastliner
And then there is the wild card: UA1/UA2.
A modern around-the-world routing connecting North America, Europe, India, and Asia would be the sort of announcement that could legitimately be called “really special.”
Do I know that’s what Kirby meant?
Absolutely not. But I absolutely hope so.
CONCLUSION
United is about to have a lot more airplanes to play with. It expects to add more than 250 new aircraft by April 2028, including dozens of A321XLRs, Coastliners, and 787-9s, and those aircraft create opportunities that did not exist when United was constrained by 757 range and a finite widebody fleet.
We already know at least one new longhaul route from Denver is coming next week.
I think Paris is likely.
I still have my eye on Scandinavia after Kirby’s reaction to my prediction.
But I’m most curious about what he meant by “really special.”
We’ll find out next Tuesday.
738M for JFK/LCY?
The 738M is a surprisingly good aircraft for thin Transatlantic routes.
Prague has a large tourist industry and is a beautiful and interesting city, but is heavily serviced by the short haul LCCs (as evident from the ubiquitous stag and hen party groups). A direct flight from the US might do well.
I suspect your guesses have merit.
The irony is that further competition to CDG and Scandinavia just reinforces that there is aggressive competition between the big 3 despite JVs and further helps SK’s admission to the AF/DL/KL/VS JV.
I suspect the XLR will play a role in helping UA fill out some holes in its network but also think that the economics of narrowbody flying will be much worse than widebodies esp. outside of the peak high fare periods. But if XLRs are used for seasonal service and deployed elsewhere including to S. America, they could make sense.
As for TPAC, UA is at a disadvantage to DL outside of CA; DL is larger to E. Asia outside of CA because DL has dual service to HND and ICN from ATL, DTW, and MSP plus PVG service from DTW and SLC-ICN. I suspect that UA will start moving to close an advantage that DL has.
as for LAX, DL will always have a fleet advantage with the A350 vs. the 787. The A350 is simply larger, more capable and more efficient per seat. No other major TPAC carrier relies solely on the 787 as their only new generation widebody on order or in service. the 777s are much more costly to operate than new generation aircraft.
RTW flights are about prestige and ego but no US carrier is going to be competitive on intra-Asia flying either w/ cost or level of service for the global carriers.
glad you got to rub shoulders w/ Kirby
DL is larger to Asia outside of CA (lol what a data cut – CA just happens to be by a distance the biggest and most important market to Asia) due to Russian airspace restrictions.
The moment you see those ease you will see EWR-HKG, EWR-PVG, ORD-HKG, ORD-PVG, and others return. UA already serves EWR-DEL, EWR-HND, IAD-HND, EWR-NRT, and is launching EWR-ICN, so it’s not like DL has some big advantage.
The A350 has better economics, but DL will need to fill those seats at profitable fares – this has been an issue for them on SEA-TPE and has been a struggle on routes to PVG (from SEA and LAX). UA is claiming with their data so far that DL is also struggling with this in LAX-HKG.
Better economics on bigger planes don’t matter when you don’t have the disproportionate right to win traffic on such routes to fill those cabins. The 787 will have a better gauge for UA to try secondary Asia markets than DL’s A350 which already is tricky for them on the larger markets – how exactly is DL supposed to penetrate markets like KIX or PEK with much lesser demand.
I hope United considers returning back to Bergen once the XLR starts maturing at United, its my favorite scandinavian city
Any idea if/when United will open a Polaris lounge at DEN? This seems to be a glaring hole in any strategy to expand internationally from DEN…
SFO-ATH to keep Alaska from getting any of that west coast connecting traffic?
To do LCY, they would need an A220. That’s the largest plane that regularly flies there. There is still an A220 sized hole in the fleet.
Returning to MAN seems like a reasonable guess.