For frequent flyers, the promise of upgrades was once a cornerstone of airline loyalty in the USA, but for most, that promise has eroded into frustration and cynicism. It’s time to fundamentally rethink upgrades once again.
It’s Time For Airlines To Fundamentally Rethink Upgrades
Elite upgrades, at least as they were once understood, are effectively dead.
I largely agree with the argument laid out by View From The Wing: airlines have hollowed out the promise of complimentary upgrades without replacing it with anything meaningful. The result is a widening disconnect between what elites are told to expect and what they actually experience.
In my own flying, complimentary upgrades have become so unreliable that I stopped factoring them into my decision-making entirely. My rule is simple now: if I want first class, I buy it. That mindset has been liberating, but it is also an indictment of how loyalty programs currently function.
Every now and then, I hear American Airlines Executive Platinums report eye-popping upgrade success rates, and I genuinely do not understand how that squares with reality. It feels like the aviation equivalent of the Twilight Zone. Either their routes, timing, and aircraft are unicorns, or the broader experience has diverged so far that elite status has become wildly inconsistent depending on where and how you fly.
The core problem is not just upgrade scarcity. It is elite saturation.
Airlines have flooded the top tiers with members who earned status not by flying, but by spending. Often that spending is not even their own money. Corporate cards, reimbursed expenses, and managed travel contracts all inflate elite ranks without necessarily reflecting meaningful loyalty or choice. Loyalty has been reduced to transaction volume, not intent.
That is why I became a free agent this year. I flew what I wanted, when I wanted, based on schedule and price. No airline “earned” my loyalty because none offered a compelling reason to commit. And yet, I could be pulled back in if an airline actually addressed the upgrade problem honestly.
The old American Airlines e500 sticker system, flawed as it was, at least aligned expectations with reality. You knew when an upgrade mattered and when it didn’t. Today’s model offers vague promises and constant disappointment.
A better approach would be straightforward: discounted first class buy-ups for elites.
These would not be free or automatic. But they would be (and should be) real, predictable, and offer tangible value. Offer elites the ability to buy into first class at a meaningful discount, tied to status, especially on flights where seats are otherwise likely to go empty (and algorithms are better than ever at predicting this). That rewards loyalty in a concrete way while still monetizing premium cabins.
Right now, airlines are doing the worst of both worlds: selling first class aggressively to anyone who will buy them while pretending complimentary upgrades still exist as a meaningful benefit. They don’t.
Loyalty programs should be built to attract travelers who actually have choice. Those are the people on the margin, not the ones locked into corporate contracts or chasing spend thresholds with other people’s money. That is precisely why Alaska Airlines’ Atmos program is increasingly interesting to me. It seems to understand that loyalty must feel earned on both sides…something that American, Delta, and United appear to have forgotten.
CONCLUSION
Elite upgrades are not broken because planes are fuller or demand is higher. They are broken because airlines want to have their cake and eat it too, promising the world to elites but selling first class cheaply to anyone who is willing to pay, often becoming a frenzied game of musical chairs.
If airlines want loyalty to mean something again, they should consider discounted, transparent buy-ups to first class that would incentivize return business and discourage shopping around. Until then, the rational move remains what it has become for me: if you want first class, buy it.
image: Emirates
I’m Plat Pro with AA. I’d say I get upgraded on 50% of flights, but if the price is right I have no problem paying for upgrades, especially for anything 3+ hours.
Elites already earn more miles per dollar. They should buy upgrades at the same price as anyone else.
Airlines should have long haul economy bedding. There are three ways to do this.
1. Have bunks stacked up 3 layers. Charge for it, of course.
2. Open up space above the cabin, similar to the crew rest areas.
3. Go back to a center section of 4 seats. Allow passengers to sleep on all 4. The charge would be less if the other 3 passengers are only allowed to use the seats during takeoff and landing. Otherwise, they have to stand and wear a seat belt like restraint while standing. Their airfare would be lower.
Today is Dec 27. Here are the complimentary UGs I’ve cleared this month as an EXP with ~315K LP
YYz-DCA
DCA-SAT
PTY-MIA
SAN-PHX
PHX-AUS
AUS-DFW
DFW-XNA
STL-CLT
CLT-MCO
UGs I missed:
MIA-AUS
AUS-SJD
Seriously. That’s it.
Finally someone said what I’ve long suspected.t
there’s literally no way to get an upgrade using miles
Those of us who are actually frequent flyers are being deposed by people who just use their credit cards to get elite flying status
This is why extra legroom economy / main cabin extra matters and why what AA did with the XLR (and for that matter 787-9P) is inexcusable. To be able to choose an extra legroom seat at booking is now one of the most meaningful parts of status and the “rack rate” of all of those extra legroom seats adds up. For a family of 4 flying r/t JFK-LHR, easily could be $100 a seat or $800 in “savings” all for having lowly Platinum status with AA. If the upgrades clear, fine, if they don’t, I’m really fine boarding in an early group with extra legroom especially on a 2.5hr or less flight. More than that, I’ll probably buy-up depending on the time of day, etc.
This is exactly my experience too. I was AA platinum for a long time and free economy extra at time of booking was so valuable for our family of five. Extra couple of inches of legroom was a big bonus with kids and their backpacks.
And then priority check in as the next important benefit.
I did get upgraded here or there (nyc to Ord mostly) but used buy up when I wanted first class.
Yep. Priority check in when you are checking bags is helpful. I realize this is not the alluring part of status, but it’s these little things that can make a difference, especially when traveling with family.
Unless I am paying for business/PE (possible of course), I will never look to fly on AA’s XLR with family because you have to be an able bodied adult to select any of them (because it’s only exit row). And only 6 extra legroom seats on the 787-9P that can be selected by those other than an able bodied adult.
In an age where upgrades happen, but are perhaps harder to come by for some, the guarantee of extra legroom economy at booking builds loyalty, period. They can take away points earning for basic economy (really have no problem with that, so many ways to earn AA points especially now with Citi…) but taking away MCE seating actually has a real impact on whether to engage with AA’s program.
If lounge access is important to you, you may want to reconsider your interest in Alaska Airlines loyalty program. Even if you pay for a first class ticket, you don’t get free access to their lounges (unless one segment of your trip is 2000 miles or more).
Alaska’s policy is actually more generous than AA/UA/DL, which generally don’t give lounge access with domestic First class tickets unless you’re on specific premium transcon routes. (Though Alaska doesn’t grant lounge access on tickets that are cleared as an upgrade irrespective of distance.)
Truly an influential phrase: “If you want first class, buy it.”
I have an 80% upgrade success rate on Alaska as a 2nd-tier 75k btw
I’m in F/J because I paid for it. If I have a delayed arrival for a connection, I often can’t get F/J on the replacement flight because they gave it away to an elite. To heck with that. Pay for it or don’t get it. That would make me spend my $s with you.
Given that those upgrades have both become cheaper to buy and more difficult to score with a shiny card, I think that it’s time for the US airlines to give serious consideration to joining their alliance partners in the rest of the world and getting rid of complimentary upgrades while standardising lounge access for elites. I can’t imagine they’re making a huge amount of money in lounge membership fees, particularly given that access can be gained through credit cards and/or status on other airlines.
“Either their routes, timing, and aircraft are unicorns”
They are not unicorns in my experience, and the experiences of those with whom I confer. But it requires a measure of gaming. The E175’s on AA are F heavy. And they serve marginal markets. DCA to BUF is an easy upgrade on that aircraft. An A319 from DCA to ORD, not so much.
In October I was on a BIS-ORD on an E175, and there were empty seats in F, suggesting that every elite, even mere golds, got upgraded.
But the underlying premise is correct – status upgrades are much tougher. I expect that baby boomer with 7 figure 401K’s who pat for F will make it tougher. And, of course, the price differential between F and Y has narrowed (I do not know why, as it looks like F is underpriced compared to 20 years ago).
And, indeed, I have paid for F when I might otherwise have rolled the dice hoping for an upgrade – just yesterday I dropped $440 for F/C from DCA to BZE thru MIA next week. Y was $120 cheaper. I will surely crowd out passengers who hope for upgrades, but I do not understand how the additional real estate in F sells for so little.
We’ll see what comes to pass, but I anticipate that carriers might revisit the trend of relatively low F fares as part of revenue management,
“Airlines have flooded the top tiers with members who earned status not by flying, but by spending.”
Yes.
But do I compete with them for upgrades? Especially chez Aadvantage, there are elites who attain status through non flight activity. They might fly four times a year, gaining status through other means. These occasional flyers are so occasional that they do not crowd me out, as they are seldom there to “compete” with me for upgrades. I lose out in the upgrade competition to those who actually fly.
As an EP with approx 300,000 LPs on AA, I am 100% on upgrades this year for flights where I booked economy and gambled (about 40 flight segments). These flights are almost always E175 regional jet flights between city pairs <1000 miles apart. For longer flights, I buy upgrades or book a full J ticket, or fly with points. But I’d say there is still plenty of value to be had on regional aircraft.
Absolutely, and there’s also more seats on E175s than some A320s giving a greater chance to clear too.
Alaska Air Gold–first time at that status.
Even at this mid-tier status, I was something like #40 on an upgrade list that included 2/3 of the plane on a recent flight. Not kidding. If everyone on board is eligible for an upgrade, ain’t no one getting upgraded… A big change from about 10 years ago, when MVP was adequate for a 1st Class upgrade around 30% of the time.
Airlines are credit card companies that happen to fly planes. This maxim seems to be more and more true every year.
For Alaska, it depends a lot on where you’re based. I’m SFO-based, and as a gold I’ve cleared upgrades on about 60% of my flights. Upgrades for flights to/from Seattle are brutal though, and I’d imagine SEA-based flyers are seeing much lower success rates.
“Either their routes, timing, and aircraft are unicorns, or the broader experience has diverged so far that elite status has become wildly inconsistent depending on where and how you fly.”
Can’t speak about anyone other than AA, but on AA, I think it’s the latter more than the former. Weekend afternoon flight from LAX to DFW on an A320? Zero chance you’re getting upgraded. DFW-IAH on an E175? 7:35 pm flight DFW-JFK on a Wednesday night in December? Domestic routes serviced with an internationally configured 772? Pretty high chance you get one (I’ve gotten upgrades on all three of those examples in the last year as a Plat Pro). I don’t disagree that the value provided via upgrades has diminished over the years, but it can still be found in the right circumstances.
2 million mile status with AA is good for 2 things, free checked bags and lounge access when traveling international. Loyalty is a one way street and I am not participating any more.
You should also look at United’s pilot contract. Pilots now get first class when dead heading. These take seats from their most frequent CUSTOMERS. I’ve been 1st on many flights for an upgrade, only to find two pilots sitting in first class as I’m walking to economy. Kind of stings.
I agree – but pilot’s will never give that back. It is what it is…sort of like “executives” traveling in first class.
I see upgrades much more frequently on AA as a platinum pro/ EXP than I ever did on United, living in Washington, DC.
I even got upgrades on AA on DCA-MIA as a Gold (lowest level elite) a few times, which surprised me.
But it’s much tougher and more unexpected on UA. I never ever have gotten a complimentary upgrade on United, and I’ve been up to a platinum member. I have a good friend on United who is 1K and upgrades RARELY happen for her, if ever.
But for whatever reason, they DO happen on AA flying into/ out of DCA with some frequency. Though to your point, first class often isnt THAT much more, so often times I’ll just buy F.
As a exp on as for past 5 yrs this yr was the worst as they offer first at such low rates as mentioned, next yr I’m not putting miles on my aa cc anymore and flying whatever I want…
As you say, loyalty to the airline is not what they want, it is CC charges. Which leads to the next question: so what are they giving to be “loyal” to their card? I consider that carefully – UA card for points for saver awards, BA card for the 2-for-1 certificate, AA card for points to use on BA saver awards (with lots of fees, but cheap in points) and to earn OW status for free seating on BA (worth about $300 each TATL RT). Amex to have points to transfer to other airlines (like VS) as needed.
But on picking flights, I pay for F or business and am a free agent. When I was a 1K, my GPUs and then PPs mostly just expired each year.
Repeat after me, “If everyone is an ‘elite,’ then nobody is an elite.” Remember how we started seeing screen shots of Marriott hotels showing how many “ambassadors/ titaniums, etc where at a given property as a way to silently say, “screw you…no upgrades possible, pretend or otherwise,” without saying these words exactly? Pretty soon, airlines will start showing number of top elites checked in for a flight. And if you are past say position #4 on the upgrade list, your chances are about zero for that A321 going DFW to SEA…
I’m guilty of buying upgrades (or J outright for international) and being the reason elites aren’t getting upgraded. I’m boarding in United group 1 into first while GS/1K standing awkwardly around the gate beep into the exit row before me. Same deal with AA, Alaskan, etc.
If I want first I make sure I get it by buying it.
Stop being a status chaser and always book the most convenient and direct. Value your own time over status. Free agency is a better way to live.
No need to “rethink upgrades” as tougher status qualification rules take hold fully in 2026. This was the airline plan all along.
Big picture: Q1 2026 is expiration quarter for status earned from as far back as the easier rules in 2024. All the complaints against tightened status requirements go away as a portion of this group drops off, or resets at a lower level on the status list, freeing up seats for those nearer to the top.
IMO, from flights I have been on in the last 90 days, I think we are seeing a last minute rush at the top to use status benefits, but that will go away as the status years end shortly and current status flyers do not re-qualify as near the top of the status list.
We’ll see.