United Airlines’ CEO Oscar Munoz will make a “historic” route announcement today. I have 10 predictions for potential new routes.
According to an insider on airliners.net, United will make a historic route announcement today at 11:00AM CT.
United Airlines CEO Oscar Munoz will host a media conference call to discuss an historic package of new and expanded international routes and talk about how they are a capstone to a breakthrough year for United.
Pay attention to the wording: an historic package of new and expanded international routes. That indicates that United will announce multiple new international routes. The fact that Oscar Munoz himself is making the announcement suggests to me that this will not just be a couple random new longhaul routes.
Another poster on airliners.net just ran into Munoz at baggage claim at LAX, foreshadowing a potential announcement from LAX. I reached out to United immediately for any hints last night but the airline is tight-lipped about today’s announcement.
On that basis, I’m just going to have some fun and speculate 10 possible announcements that Munoz could make today.
My Predictions
- Nonstop service to Guam (GUM) from either Los Angeles (LAX) or San Francisco (SFO). This would be historic in that it would link these two hubs for the first time.
- New service to Johannesburg (JNB) from Newark (EWR) or Washington Dulles (IAD) or Houston (IAH). This would be historic, particularly from IAH, in that it would link up six continents to Houston for the first time While the government in South Africa is a mess, Atlanta (ATL) to JNB has been a very profitable route for Delta.
- New service to Cairo (CAI) from EWR. The tourist market remains depressed in Egypt, but this route in closer cooperation with EgyptAir could create a new network for Arab Africa and the Middle East
- New service to Frankfurt (FRA) from LAX. While Lufthansa ably serves Los Angeles, a United return on this route would be an excellent boost for LAX. It would also help justify the new Polaris Lounge at LAX.
- The re-introduction of UA1/UA2 Round The World Service via new service to Delhi (DEL) or Mumbai (BOM) from SFO. United abandoned its RTW service (JFK-LHR-DEL-HKG-LAX-JFK) after 09/11. While I don’t anticipate an identical routing to return, I would not be surprised to see something like SFO-DEL-HKG-SFO.
- New service to Bangkok (BKK) from SFO or LAX. While yields are low, this route presents an opportunity for the Dreamliner and an unprecedented nonstop route for United.
- New service to Ho Chi Minh City (SGN) from SFO or LAX. While yields are low, this route presents an opportunity for the Dreamliner and the large Vietnamese-American community in California.
- Return of service to Lagos (LOS) from Houston. As oil prices begin to rebound, a return to Lagos may make sense. In fact, United could conceivably run IAH-LOS-JNB, with Fifth Freedom service between Lagos and Johannesburg. I reviewed the flight in 2014.
- New service to Tel Aviv (TLV) from Chicago. Flying to Israel remains very profitable in terms of both cargo and passenger service. If any Chicago routes are added, my bet is on Tel Aviv.
- A return to JFK. Ok, this one is just dreaming, but I would love announcement today that United is returning to New York JFK.
CONCLUSION
Speculation is fun, but I will be anxiously waiting for the official news. In the meantime, what do you think of my predictions? What do you think United will announce today?
Talking about hedging your bet on the new route. I highly doubt GUM I fly there a lot
I’m just thinking “historic” 😉
Not sure the return of survice routes would could as historic. My bet is in JNB route,
They couldn’t get a plane from JNB to anywhere in the USA, so there would need to be some sort of tag on it
Why not? South African flies nonstop from JFK and Delta from ATL.
The altitude will kill payload performance to get the plane off the ground with a meaningful load. Delta uses a 77L which has larger engines than a normal 777-200 and SA uses 340’s which are great for hot-and-high airports
What if United used a 777-300ER?
77W has same engines as 77L, but is a longer plane and weighs more. I could certainly be proven wrong though
789 should be able to make it without major issues
789 will likely be able to do EWR/IAD with economical payload. IAH is probably a bridge too far.
I agree that flights to DEL and BOM from the west coast make sense, especially SFO given the proximity to Silicon Valley. JNB also is likely from one of the hubs mentioned.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see SFO-FCO as well, but maybe that’s just wishful thinking on my part!
DEN is throwing tons of money at airlines starting new routes, DEN-PEK, AMS, PVG, or GRU could be included in here, also considering a new 787 pilot base at DEN has been announced.
My guess is IAD/EWR to JNB. I also won’t rule out something to BOM or DEL – but I’ll go bold and predict a route from IAH, not SFO. Of course, IAH-BOM/DEL is a selfish wish on my part. One, because I’d love a straight shot to India. Two, if UA does it, I suspect AA will quickly launch a competitive response with a nonstop from DFW.
Bangkok is not possible. FAA won’t allow US-Thailand services and no US airline can service Thailand at all
Why would the FAA care and why would the Thai government turn down a nonstop flight to the USA when TG cannot cut it?
You’re sadly mistaken. Thai Airways was dropped from the FAA’s certified list of airlines back in 2015 but was recertified in 2018. Either way, that has nothing to do with any US airline having any issue with the route as long as the Thai government permits it—which most certainly would be permitted to again link the two nations by nonstop air service.
My guess is Africa (JNB, LOS, ACC)
Not quite sure what you mean by making IAH a six-continent airport “for the first time”. If you mean “the first time by UA” then that’s true, but if you mean “for the first time ever by anyone” then that’s not true, since the LOS flight was still going when NZ started their AKL flight, so there were flights to all 6 continents from IAH for a while there. Technically, IAH was a six continent airport from December 2015 when NZ started until March 2018 when Atlas Air stopped operating their 747 to LAD.
Admittedly, this is taking a loose definition of “continent” that counts Oceania instead of Australia, but still.
Fair point. I was referring to UA in specific, but NZ AKL and UA LOS route did overlap.
SFO BLR fits the bill of their tech flight launches. They could also move their EWR BOM/DEL flights over to SFO instead.
As others have mentioned, GUM could be added as a way to more efficiently rotate 777s out there
SFO-BLR would be innovative.
reached out to Untied immediately
freudian slip?
Oops! Fixed. Gracias.
Great guessing above from other commentators.
My guess/bet is an announcement for both an LAX long haul and a EWR long haul to be announced today. I would love for it to be LAX-GUM; LAX-SGN; EWR-JNB.
Well I’ve seen the announcement and it’s underwhelming and lacking the ‘historic’ aspect everyone was expecting.
Yes. 7 “new” routes from SFO (only three). Post to follow.
UA usta fly SFO-YYZ and SFO-AMS back in the 90’s. only thing ‘new’ is SFO-DEL.
SFO-DEL aside the rest of the flights are a let down. And the SFO-DEL and return time slots are horrible, yuck, arrive into DEL at 0100 hrs and depart at 0400 hrs, not appealing.
They could do a SFO-DEL-EWR-SFO routing. Would put those 787-9s to good use (or do an equipment change in EWR to an 787-10).
EWR/IAD – HYD, first direct flight to HYD from any US destination is Historic. BLR is a possibility.
Wrong about everything expect (kinda) the SFO-DEL route…