Earlier today, United Airlines and JetBlue announced a new “Blue Sky” partnership that includes a return to JFK for United, an interline agreement, and reciprocal frequent flyer benefits. United CEO Scott Kirby has explained what is behind this move: more effectively competing against Delta Air Lines (and sidelining American Airlines as a viable premium competitor).
United’s JetBlue Partnership Aims To Contain Delta, Suppress American
Appearing on CNBC’s Squawk Box shortly after the news was announced, Kirby explained what is at the heart of this deal:
“Delta’s a really, really good airline. They’ve done a great job. In fact, a lot of what we’ve done at United has been copies of some of the things Delta has done successfully. JetBlue’s number one competitor is Delta at JFK, Boston, and even in Florida and the Caribbean, and this makes JetBlue more competitive.
“If you’re a frequent flyer and you like JetBlue…but if you’re flying out of New York, for example, Delta can get you all over the world…now you can use them [JetBlue miles] to fly United. You can earn on JetBlue and say I want to take a vacation to Cape Town and use your miles to go to Cape Town on United.”
You can watch his full interview here (where Kirby also admits Newark has been hit hard, forcing United to lower fares despite more limited traffic):
United’s Strategy: Keep American Airlines Behind, Catch Up To Delta
Kirby, always one who speaks his mind and does not hold back, gives away the playbook here.
As JetBlue wrestled with whom to partner with, its realistic contenders were Alaska, American, and United. While Alaska made the most sense in terms of a partnership due to their limited overlap in major markets, American was quite attractive because its strength in Florida and New York could have helped JetBlue grow in a smarter and more directed way. While the “Northeast Alliance” was deemed illegal, a more limited partnership made a lot of sense and likely would have passed regulatory review.
But United offered JetBlue what is undoubtedly a very good deal…a path to meaningfully and substantially improving its TrueBlue loyalty program in exchange for a smattering of gates at JFK in two years. Loyalty programs are the cash cows of network carriers…take those away and there is no profitability.
Yet JetBlue has struggled to offer a meaningful loyalty program to its frequent flyers. This partnership with United will bring in millions of potential new customers who will suddenly see the option to use their United miles on JetBlue or fly JetBlue and credit to United. Making TrueBlue more valuable does not solve JetBlue’s network issues, but it just may help solve the carrier’s financial issues if it can better market TrueBlue and particularly its portfolio of co-branded credit cards.
As for United, this partnership is aimed at trying to surpass Delta. United hopes that with a partnership with JetBlue, passengers will be less incentivized to fly Delta out of New York and Boston. If New York and Boston customers can fly JetBlue domestically and then fly United internationally, there is a lower risk of diversion to Delta, which can serve all destinations worldwide with its own route network and partnerships.
The partnership also makes it harder for American Airlines to grow in compete in the premium market, which currently is a two-way race between Delta and United.
CONCLUSION
While too early to tell if this will work, United hopes to keep New York and Boston customers from defecting to Delta Air Lines via this partnership. It further hopes to keep American Airlines in a distant third place by robbing it of a proven (based on the Northeast Alliance) path to growth.
This is a multi-dimensional chess game and even if United only ends up with a paltry handful of gates at JFK and no merger with JetBlue, the practical effect of this new “Sky Blue” alliance could be to further slow AA’s growth and keep Delta from becoming even more dominant in markets like New York and Boston. At least that is what Kirby is hoping for…
image: Bill Abbot / Flickr
the simple reality is that Delta has carefully grown its presence as the 3rd largest legacy carrier in NYC 20 years ago to now the largest by number of flights and is the largest domestic airline from NYC.
UA – under a different administration – left JFK where it was a fraction of the size of AA, B6 and DL. Then UA failed to use its slots at EWR to FAA requirements so the FAA ended slot controls given that UA/CO has had 65-70% of EWR’s flights for decades.
Scott Kirby then masterfully bungled the EWR runway rebuild project by overscheduling during construction periods and then blaming the FAA only to try to suck up in what anyone can clearly see borders on schizophrenic behavior. UA will likely never operate a hub at EWR as it has as the FAA is determined to limit capacity at EWR while not reinstating slot controls.
EWR has been trashed in the media and it is not the least bit of a surprise that DL has benefited and UA has hurt. Earnings reports in about 6 weeks will be very interesting.
UA acknowledges which I have said and others resist that UA has copied many of DL’s strategies – and UA is executing most of them well.
But UA is still pinning its hopes of catching DL by overlaying its loyalty program and a codeshares on the B6 operation which is still less reliable than AA and esp. DL in the cities where they all compete.
add in that DL has 2 years to prepare for UA’s return to JFK w/ a handful of flights that will nowhere near replace the 2 years of lost capacity from EWR and this all seems devoid of reality – in hopes of fixing problems which UA over 20 years has created for itself in NYC.
Could this deal also be aimed at JetBlue becoming a second advocate for a return to slot controls at EWR, which presumably would benefit incumbent carriers like UA by keeping out new competition in the years ahead?
As for your comment, do you think my analysis is correct in that this is the goal of Kirby? (as to whether it will work or not is unclear and you make a good argument as to why it might not work).
yes, Matthew, I believe your analysis is correct.
But Kirby specifically said that this is not a codeshare deal so at best UA will be selling flights for B6 and vice versa and the two will get loyalty program access to each other’s markets.
It is LESS THAN AA/AS which does involve codesharing. AA books relatively small amounts of traffic on AS operated flights.
and you can see the hype a mile away when he says “we will be the largest airline in BOS” when they don’t even codeshare, let alone revenue share.
and talking about discounting fares at EWR proves they have scared alot of people away.
and the FAA is not giving UA what it asked for which was to reinstate slot controls. EWR is a smaller operation which will take revenue from UA and shift it to LGA and JFK where DL is most likely to benefit.
what the hosts were really expecting Kirby to say about DL’s reaction is “you mean this is really all you are doing and you expect DL to be negatively impacted? They will gain more revenue from the tarnished reputation that EWR has gained and will have two years to prepare for UA’s return to JFK w/ 1/20th of the number of DOMESTIC flights that DL.”
AA needed and could have had this same deal but to think that DL will be negatively impacted is fanciful at best.
I sort of did a double take when I heard Kirby say that. UA may have copied a lot of recent DL strategies, notably the customer experience IFE/etc, but let’s not kid ourselves here. DL itself copied the CO playbook of BusinessFirst by creating BusinessElite, flying 757s across the Atlantic from EWR by flying 757s across the Atlantic from JFK, the UA playbook of Polaris lounges by adding DeltaOne lounges, the list goes on.
With respect to DL’s presence in NYC, I guess it depends on how you look at it currently. Would you rather be big at one airport that, recent constraints aside, offers superior international/domestic connectivity (i.e. UA @ EWR) or would you rather be bigger because you can say you have the most flights….but they are spread across two airports serving different purposes (DL @ JFK/LGA)?
The bulk of DL’s traffic across the Atlantic is still flown via ATL all the while JFK has shrunk and a lot of the capacity has shifted into funneling traffic over AF/KL/SkyTeam hubs. They’ve got plenty of flights to CDG or AMS, but if you want to go to BER, BRU, GVA, ZRH, BOM etc….you’ll be flying down to either ATL or thru CDG or AMS to get there. UA is adding RAK, MGA, OPO, PMA etc……but DL isn’t. Bottom line is that UA can connect more domestic points onward over EWR, whereas DL which is the “largest domestic airline from NYC” will send you to LGA but your international flight will be leaving out of JFK.
the airline industry is constantly changing and, yes, DL has copied strategies from other airlines, including WiFi and seatback AVOD on domestic flights from B6.
DL copied TATL 757s from NW and got the 757s themselves largely from TW via AA.
But AA, DL and UA are direct competitors and UA’s own CEO acknowledges that he has copied strategies from DL – because he has, regardless of where they came from before.
and JFK IS DL’s largest gateway to Europe. ATL is larger in total international because it is so much larger to Latin America and has Asia which DL does not currently have from JFK. You should really look at DL’s network from JFK if you think all they do is dump traffic onto its JV partners.
And DL is actually larger to Europe than UA if you exclude UA’s narrowbody operations; DL has simply said it is not possible to make money on 757s/A321NEOs or 737MAXs on flights over 8 hours. Given that DL is laser focused on profitability while UA is focused on size, I strongly suspect that DL is right. given that AA and UA are joined by a handful of smaller airlines in using A321NEOs across the Atlantic – but the biggest carriers like BA, AF/KL and LH Group are not tells me that widebodies really are the most profitable way to serve the Atlantic for legacy carriers
DL has 4 hubs lined up along the east coast – BOS, LGA, JFK and ATL – and they carry more traffic than any other carrier because of it. UA doesn’t have a super hub anywhere on its network and certainly not in the eastern US where DL has ATL and AA has CLT, even though CLT has a pretty small international operation.
and from an operational standpoint, EWR has never been capable of supporting the size operation that CO and UA have had there – that is why the FAA is finally saying that they will cap the number of flights at EWR but not reinstate slot controls. It doesn’t matter how great of a hub
As for the endless “but EWR is a better hub” it doesn’t matter how great EWR is if DL can operate 20% more flights including being the largest domestic carrier in NYC. Given that LGA does not allow them to fly much international from LGA, they use the airports for how they are designed.
And DL does serve all 3 NYC airports, as does AA and B6.
DL is certain to overtake UA as the largest airline in total passengers carried from NYC in 2025; and DL is likely printing money from its NYC operation based on Kirby’s comments about how much traffic has fled EWR. It will be years worth of loyalty tickets and 7 flights/day for UA to catch back up to the customers that DL has gained and will undoubtedly fight hard to keep.
and let’s not forget in all of this talk that DL could very well decide to launch about 7 TCON flights from EWR if there is any indication that UA is succeeding at pulling passengers from other carriers at JFK.
EWR will be a smaller hub for UA and there is no assurance that DL might up the ante including at EWR if it is successful.
“Scott Kirby then masterfully bungled the EWR runway rebuild project by overscheduling during construction periods and then blaming the FAA only to try to suck up in what anyone can clearly see borders on schizophrenic behavior.”
I’m not one to defend Kirby, but all airlines reduced their flights during the runway reconstruction because the FAA mandated it. They were asked to reduce their schedules to around 66 movements an hour and they did comply. The problem has been the staffing situation and equipment failures, which are completely the fault of the FAA and are the result of the move of the sector to PHL. Kirby could be blamed for giving the move his blessing, but in all fairness, he was lied to about the improvements the move would have.
One also shouldn’t forget that the same runway was closed for two months in 2014 and they didn’t have close to the delay problems they have now. But back then, EWR wasn’t split away, they didn’t have the current staffing shortages and there wasn’t a cheap data link since everything was in the same building.
CO and UA have dominated EWR traffic for years and Scott Kirby has repeatedly said he did not want to cut EWR capacity because other carriers would add – and yet CO/UA’s share has not changed in over 15 years.
EWR frequently became a single runway airport during the first weeks of the complete runway closure because weather conditions prevented using the crosswind runway.
And Kirby’s bungling was in trashing the FAA, UA’s regulator. Didn’t matter whatever the reason for the delays were; it doesn’t take a whole lot of emotional intelligence to realize that trashing someone in power over you isn’t going to end well for you.
Add in that all of the hype about EWR hurt UA massively as customers fled as they never have before; UA not only forced the FAA to take action on UA capacity which will persist after all runways are reopened but also hurt EWR’s reputation and sent passengers by the thousands per day to LGA and JFK, largely to DL’s benefit.
Yes, Kirby bungled what should have been a routine runway rebuilding.
and the overscheduling that has plagued EWR for years, largely under CO and UA’s control as the primary users, will be throttled way back.
a frequent flyer partnership with B6, even a codeshare, and even if UA adds 7 flights to JFK won’t come close to offsetting the lost revenue that will hit UA at EWR.
You can’t argue how great UA’s hub at EWR has been because it is a single airport hub but then argue that 7 flights/day in a couple years and a codeshare relationship with a non-legacy carrier is going to replace what UA will lose at EWR.
EWR WILL BE a smaller hub for UA in the future – and that is why they pushed so hard to
Sometimes, taking a look from the 30,000 foot level can help to clarify the bigger picture. Which is this:
1) UA is in growth mode and aiming to be the undisputed biggest airline in the USA;
2) UA’s weakest regions are the northeast and the southeast (the Mid Atlantic region is stronger for them). Sure, they have the EWR hub but their market position in the overall region is poor.
3) B6 is an airline that basically tries to superserve 3 markets (BOS, JFK, FLL);
4) B6 is strong where UA is weakest – and brings the nice benefit of their JFK presence. Meanwhile, UA has strength in most of the rest of the USA, which B6 really doesn’t.
5) This is a win-win for both. B6 is going nowhere without a partner. You could argue that AS would be better, but AS is fully occupied in digesting HA right now.
Overall, these pieces add up in a way that also agrees with your blog above. Keep DL at bay while punching AA in the face.
your positions aren’t back up by data
1. DL and UA have been running neck in neck in overall growth rates for several years but lower than some of the ULCCs that have been unable to produce profits. The growth that UA said would come has not in part because aircraft are not being delivered as they promised. And Wall Street will punish the stock of any carrier that dumps a bunch of capacity into the market; UA’s entire proposition of taking market share will be dilutive in its own hubs. They simply won’t grow at the rate that many think.
2. UA is actually the largest carrier in the NE based on revenue because of their EWR and IAD hubs. DL is the largest on the east coast and east of the Mississippi as a whole. AA has the capacity but is not generating the revenues they could be but are still a very solid competitor in the eastern US and in the NE.
3. DL is larger than B6 at JFK and BOS
AS-B6 would still have left a huge hole in the middle of the country. Any of the big 4 including WN would have solved B6′ need to be more relevant outside of its core markets. AS could probably get a merger/acquisition w/ B6 approved; none of the big 3 including UA will.
This partnership is about as much as you will see and it really doesn’t and won’t meaningfully change the competitive environment.
For one thing, I said that being larger was United’s goal – not my opinion. Secondly, being in closer competition with DL in two of their stronger (yet not unbreakable) markets, is not a bad plan. DL will always dominate places like ATL, DTW, MSP, and SLC. However, their other hubs and focus cities are not invulnerable. As for UA, they too have fortress markets.
But spreading out the battlefield is a smart play by Kirby; right now, if you’re from the northeast but not in/near EWR, you’re unlikely to fly UA. In that way, they can perhaps understand B6’s current issue…..because unless you like in New York, Boston or Fort Lauderdale, you’re not going to fly JetBlue. They may serve dozens of other markets, but only connecting them with their hubs. By teaming up, B6 and UA broaden the playing field. Sure, B6 is small. But UA is the one with certain regional holes to fill. B6 helps to fill a couple for them.
It actually makes total sense to me and I giggle at all the comments fixating on the big apple. Yes, that’s a piece of this, but there’s a lot more involved. And they’re not nearly finished with organizing the two airlines into a partnership. Which is why, frankly, I find the 7 JFK slots thing to be meaningless. It’s what they have at the moment. All subject to change as this plays out.
yes, size and sexy has long been UA’s goal while DL is much more focused on being profitable first. DL still manages to generate more revenue than any airline in the world and still lead the US airline industry in profits.
I’m not sure what hubs you are referring to in saying that UA is taking on DL in its stronger hubs but LGA and JFK are slot controlled while UA has no leading presence in any slot-controlled airport, unlike AA, B6 and DL.
DL and UA” route networks are similar – DL has ATL in the SE while UA has IAH but otherwise they have comparable hubs. DL is stronger on the east coast, UA on the west coast. They compete fairly well but cater to each of their own strengths.
and, yes, UA has been so focused on international growth that they have allowed themselves to come in at just the 6th largest airline to Florida. Of course, they want someone to bail them out of that strategic error. But B6′ network is highly leisure focused unlike AA and DL which both carry large amounts of business traffic in/out of Florida. B6 is just not a viable answer to what UA needs in Florida. and FLL has been proven over and over as incapable of supporting large international operations that exist at MIA and even MCO and TPA.
the focus on NYC is because JFK is B6′ largest operation even though they are smaller than DL there and at BOS.
and DL is the largest legacy carrier at FLL and MCO, 2/3 the size of B6 at FLL and larger than them at MCO and TPA.
and this deal is still ONLY a loyalty program partnership right now; no codeshare and certainly not a joint venture.
Trying to claim how UA will help B6 or vice versa compared to DL or even AA is more than a stretch
Hoping this is the start of something good for us South FL flyers. Would love to see UA grow organically at FLL to complement B6 service, a la what DL is doing at MIA. The only problem is that FLL is horribly laid out (e.g., no connectivity airside between all terminals), with all UA ops (plus their lounge) in T1, and B6 is out of T 2 & 3. They could swap B6 and WN’s terminal locations, which would solve that problem. Anything to give us better alternatives than the substandard AA service out of MIA or the horrid WN or NK out of FLL would be a tremendous plus.
Honestly, I think FLL is the big story that most here seem to be missing. The South Florida angle is the real brilliance of this move. Because UA has little in the southeast and their only Latin American hub is IAH – which is a fine airport, but less than ideal as a LA hub for about 30% of the nation (including the entire east coast). AA is killing them on this and here is a great opportunity for UA (teamed with B6) to get on more level ground with them.
Oh come on. JetBlue is a leisure airline. Folks fly it to get from the Northeast to Florida/Caribbean. I fly it on average once a year over the past 10 years. I’ve built up a grand total of 25k JetBlue points, which sit there ignored. And I’m supposed to be excited about redemption opportunities on United?
If folks are accumulating points, they’re doing it with credit cards. Why anyone would be doing it in a serious way with the JetBlue credit card is beyond me – so many better options out there to get transferable points with a real bank (Amex/Chase/Citi). I’ve redeemed close to 2M points over the last 12 months, and never once thought of my JetBlue points bank in doing so. In fact it’s one of the reasons why JetBlue is doing so poorly – it’s the #4 airline at best teamed up with Barclays… can’t imagine that’s a credit card that generates a lot of excitement among, well, anyone really.
B6 benefits from this alliance more than anyone else. Allows them to connect their flights to star alliance carriers once they all occupy T6. Other star alliance carriers will like this as well. If anything creates more of a leverage point for B6 vis-a-vis UA going forward – between EWR being what it is and B6 controlling a lot more than 7 slots at JFK, sets B6 up well from a negotiation perspective if there ever will be a merger between the two.
Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-05-29/united-and-jetblue-hope-to-fly-under-the-antitrust-radar
“The partnership will also give United customers a choice of about 90 flights that JetBlue operates between the Northeast and the Caribbean, including nonstop service to Aruba and Jamaica. Under the interline agreement, the airlines will offer each other’s flights on their webpages and apps and allow loyalty points to be earned and used.
This enhanced access for United to the Northeast, especially at JFK, and short-haul Latin America customers is a good deal. It’s no wonder that United’s stock rose nearly 2% on a day when the S&P 500 Index was flat.
JetBlue’s shares fell nearly 3%, indicating that investors see United as gaining the upper hand in the agreement.
..,
Unfortunately for JetBlue, the recent downturn of passenger demand has been weighted more heavily toward leisure travel and has hit the Northeast US harder than other regions — both of which are strongholds for the airline. Clearly, JetBlue had the weaker hand at the bargaining table with United.
Still, customers from both airlines will benefit from this agreement. United will offer passengers more choice when flying to the Northeast or taking a vacation to the Caribbean. JetBlue customers will gain access to United’s vast network and the perks of a full-service airline, adding that scale that it’s been pursuing.”
one day stock movement is hardly indicative of expectations of success.
JBLU was down because JBLU investors want a buyout. Fuel prices were down for much of the trading day but the gains faded due to conflicting signals between the tariff ruling and expected OPEC production increases.
B6 always held the cards in this negotiation; they have the slots that UA want which is the only reason there is any deal.
and Scott Kirby just said that load factors at EWR have been down 15 points for several weeks and that it will have a major impact to UA’s earnings, even before the charge to settle with their FAs.
UA will gain nothing from this deal because of leisure passengers; the only way they will gain anything will be if they win high value passengers that don’t fly UA but MIGHT with loyalty benefits.
B6-UA will be LESS of an agreement than AA-AS which includes codesharing and an alliance relationship, something B6-UA will not have.
> and Scott Kirby just said that load factors at EWR have been down 15 points for several weeks and that it will have a major impact to UA’s earnings, even before the charge to settle with their FAs.
Incorrect and incorrect. In his interview today he said they’d still hit the middle of their earnings guidance – that is not a ‘major impact’. And he also mentioned that the FA charges have also already been built into their guidance.
he most certainly said that EWR LFs have been down 15 points and they are aggressively discounting to get people back.
and I can absolutely assure you that UA’s earnings will show a one-time charge if only for the retro they will pay as part of the deal w the AFA. UA was fighting retro payments and the AFA held firm and won it. and UA’s labor costs WILL rise and its profitability relative to DL will fall if only for increased labor costs. I can assure you of that.
and the AFA is just ONE of the six labor contracts that UA has to settle; while it is easily the largest, the mechanics soundly rejected what the company offered and can do just as much damage to UA’s reputation as the FAs if UA doesn’t pony up even more cash.
and it still doesn’t change that UA’s earnings have been hurt by the EWR mess which has been increased because of UA’s incessant focus on trying to blame the FAA and Kirby’s incessant need to run in front of the media. UA caused some of the damage to EWR all by itself in trying to publicly blame the FAA; even if UA was right, it was a given the FAA and DOT were not going to sit quietly – which is why they will cap EWR capacity below levels UA has operated the hub at for 15 years. All UA had to do is reduce EWR schedules even more during construction and then deal w/ the delays and then work w/ the FAA BEHIND THE SCENES about the ATC issues.
Bur Scott Kirby ALWAYS has to try to look like the smartest person in the room and blame everyone else while beating UA’s drum and Sean Duffy is having none of it.
UA could see the long-term EWR cuts coming and thinks they will offset the impact w/ a B6 deal which doesn’t involve codesharing. And yet the biggest argument that many have had about UA in NYC is their single hub presence at EWR compared to DL (and AA’s two airport hubs) and the B6 deal is counter to that very argument.
UA will be smaller at EWR and the B6 deal will not offset the losses UA will suffer. 2025 is going to the year that DL overtakes UA as the largest carrier in NYC based on passengers carried.
and if UA really succeeds at getting back into JFK, there is nothing stopping DL from adding service – including transcon service on its A321NEO transcons from EWR. and AA could do the same as well
I posted this on another site but it is so important to understand what is going on that it needs to be posted here as well..
The Port Authority of NYNJ just released April traffic statistics and they highlight how big of an issue the runway reconstruction project has been.
In April, DL overtook UA as the largest airline at the 3 airports with a 24.7% share compared to UA’s 24.1%. DL’s traffic was up less than 1% but UA’s was down 5.3%. AA’s was up 5.4% with a 12.6% share. B6 gave up over 10% of their region traffic. Traffic at all 3 airports was down 2%
At EWR, UA’s traffic was down 7% but ironically DL’s was up 7.5%. Most carriers had traffic decreases. DL’s EWR share was only 4.2% compared to 68% for UA. The airport as a whole was down 6.4% in traffic.
JFK traffic for all airlines was up just under 1% with DL’s share at almost 30% compared to B6 at 23% and AA at 12%.
LGA was the winner in all of it. Airport traffic was down less than 1% but AA, DL, UA and WN all had healthy increases with AA up almost 19% which was similar to UA’s increase. DL’s LGA share at 44% is well ahead of AA at 25.6%. The other LCCs and ULCCs all had large losses so LGA is becoming more concentrated in the hands of the big 4. WN is the 3rd largest airline at LGA but their share is 1/5th of DL’s.
B6 continues to be unable to post gains and AA has once again returned to the 3rd place position in NYC.
These moves will only grow in May and into June; based on Kirby’s comments about how UA is having to discount to get people back to EWR, the chances are high that AA and DL will have very strong summers at LGA and JFK.
This runway reconstruction project at EWR should have been a one-time low key reduction in traffic at EWR but it has and will result in a larger shift of traffic back to LGA and JFK and to AA and DL, the former of which Kirby was so determined to wound with the B6 announcement.